Holding Value?

There has been discussions about the glut of products on the market.  Perhaps buyers want new items from dealers they are familiar with.  I buy and sell on Evilbay and have learned to look for signs of sellers I think are trustworthy.  

It seems that the days of high resale value on our cherished toys is coming to an end.
I have long thought that most of us buy with the idea of being able resell later and recoup most of what we spent  or even make a little money. IMHO those days are over.
Buy what you like and can afford.

Certainly Lionel is killing the resale value on everything they have made in recent years with extremely inflated MSRP resulting in an overpriced retail as well.

Good luck trying to resell those $1200 Mikados in the most recent catalog 

( BTW I don't buy into the higher manufacturing cost excuse in china as MTH prices have held steady for several years)

Add to that, numerous QC complaints, and the possibility of no warranty on a second hand item......I'll pass.

On a side note, I've noticed those Lionel CCII niagaras have been creeping up from the sub $500 price they were getting. Hmmm, maybe Alex M turning these into usable locos has something to do with this?

Dan Padova posted:

There has been discussions about the glut of products on the market.  Perhaps buyers want new items from dealers they are familiar with.  I buy and sell on Evilbay and have learned to look for signs of sellers I think are trustworthy.  

Dan,

I've read that too, but I've always looked at that as a very broad brush statement that doesn't necessarily apply across the board.  

I mean, it's one thing to say that about the Polar Express starter set, which is as common as dirt.  It's quite another to say that about a Vision locomotive or a GGD passenger set, or similar. My understanding is that the production run of many of these higher end items is low to incredibly low. And, technically,, this actually makes these low run items quite rare in the marketplace.  And yet much of this stuff doesn't move even when fire-sale priced.  I'm trying to understand why ...

RickO posted:

Certainly Lionel is killing the resale value on everything they have made in recent years with extremely inflated MSRP resulting in an overpriced retail as well.

Good luck trying to resell those $1200 Mikados in the most recent catalog 

( BTW I don't buy into the higher manufacturing cost excuse in china as MTH prices have held steady for several years)

Add to that, numerous QC complaints, and the possibility of no warranty on a second hand item......I'll pass.

On a side note, I've noticed those Lionel CCII niagaras have been creeping up from the sub $500 price they were getting. Hmmm, maybe Alex M turning these into usable locos has something to do with this?

RickO - In essence, you're saying what many of us have - the current MSRPs are too high to sustain.  Agreed.  But this is a slightly different issue.  

What I'm saying is, believe it or not, people do buy new from dealers - at the current dealer price points - so this stuff has interest and is selling at these prices.  Yet when resold "new," even the best stuff with incredibly low production runs overwhelmingly cannot draw attention at even 60% of the original street price.  

Certainly, a lack of warranty matters, but I can't imagine this would explain this sale price chasm?  While not exactly analogous, that's almost like saying I won't buy a 2015 Shelby Mustang at 60% "new car street price" even though it sat unused since rolling off the assembly line and is in mint condition, simply because the warranty expired.  I just don't get it ...

Peter

Certainly, a lack of warranty matters, but I can't imagine this would explain this sale price chasm?  While not exactly analogous, that's almost like saying I won't buy a 2015 Shelby Mustang at 60% "new car street price" even though it sat unused since rolling off the assembly line and is in mint condition, simply because the warranty expired.  I just don't get it ...

There will be plenty of places to get that Shelby serviced, and parts will be available for many years to come.
Can the same be said about our toy trains?

joe

I think the main reason is that there are new remakes always coming out. Another possibility is new product with new features always coming out. With so many choices, who would want to spend top dollar on an older model.

The Lionel scale s2 is a good example. First released in the 90s with railsounds. Version two released in 2000's with tmcc. Version three was released with legacy. If I buy the legacy version on ebay, I expect to less than retail.  I expect a few hundred off. So if it sold New at 1200, I'd expect to pay around 800-900.  It's not from a dealer and any issues found are my responsibility to fix. The tmcc version I expect to run around 500. The first release around 300. In my view, the older the version, the less it's worth. Why would I pay top dollar for the 90s version, when I could easily buy the newer model at the same price with more features. I regularly see the 90s model listed on ebay for 995. I would never spend that since I can get legacy version cheaper.

With so much to choose from today, I can shop around for my price point and if it does not show up, Lionel will remake it soon enough. If I am going to pay full price, I will buy a current version from a dealer.

I think too many people still have a collector mentality. I am an operator so I shop for bargains.

Joe

Joe Fermani posted:

 

I think too many people still have a collector mentality. I am an operator so I shop for bargains.

 

Joe

Self examination is fine but you're not looking at the bigger picture.   The hobby as a whole (collectors, operators, everyone in-between) is losing steam quickly...

joe 

JC642 posted:

Joe Fermani posted:

 

I think too many people still have a collector mentality. I am an operator so I shop for bargains.

 

Joe

Self examination is fine but you're not looking at the bigger picture.   The hobby as a whole (collectors, operators, everyone in-between) is losing steam quickly...

joe 

Actually, none of what you two are discussing has anything to do with this thread. Please read the OP.  In Bamey terms, what's being discussed is - looking for the rationale for why new items are selling at whatever today's street prices are. But these same items - in new condition - in many cases cannot be resold at even 60% of original street price.  

CW Burfle - I don't get your point about spare parts availability affecting resale value - in the context of this thread. We're talking about buying a 2017 high-end locomotive or passenger set in 2017 - just from a secondary market source. The spare parts availability has zero to do with why someone would pay $2000 for a set of say Sunset passenger cars from Sunset  on January 1, 2017 and this same set, in brand new condition, won't sell at say $1,400 from an eBay seller on May 1, 2017. 

PJB posted:

Actually, none of what you two are discussing has anything to do with this thread. Please read the OP.  In Bamey terms, what's being discussed is - looking for the rationale for why new items are selling at whatever today's street prices are. But these same items - in new condition - in many cases cannot be resold at even 60% of original street price.  

 

What I posted is exactly why  "these same items - in new condition - in many cases cannot be resold at even 60% of original street price. " ....    Simply put, The secondary market is saturated with unsold product both old and new of declining value because the participation rate has fallen dramatically..

joe  

Perhaps the more interesting/insightful question is, "why are people selling recently-manufactured NIB items?"  A basic fact of business is: buying at retail to sell soon thereafter at aftermarket retail is seldom a money-making strategy.

JTrains posted:

Perhaps the more interesting/insightful question is, "why are people selling recently-manufactured NIB items?"  A basic fact of business is: buying at retail to sell soon thereafter at aftermarket retail is seldom a money-making strategy.

That's sort of irrelevant, isn't it?  Someone could lose their job or have a sudden medical expense or any other reason. The question is why would people be willing to pay $$$$ to buy a new product from a dealer and yet that same group of people will not pay $$ to buy that same item a few months later from a secondary source?  

JC642 posted:

PJB posted:

Actually, none of what you two are discussing has anything to do with this thread. Please read the OP.  In Bamey terms, what's being discussed is - looking for the rationale for why new items are selling at whatever today's street prices are. But these same items - in new condition - in many cases cannot be resold at even 60% of original street price.  

 

What I posted is exactly why  "these same items - in new condition - in many cases cannot be resold at even 60% of original street price. " ....    Simply put, The secondary market is saturated with unsold product both old and new of declining value because the participation rate has fallen dramatically..

joe  

Joe - I hear you. But if what you say is true, no one would be placing BTO or preorders for any of this stuff.  Right?  I mean why bother?  The glut of secondary market stuff is ever-present.  So if everyone can buy similar items for a fraction of new item cost, there would be almost no need to ever even consider buying anything new.  I mean that is your point taken to its logical conclusion.  And that can't explain why people will and do pay big bucks to a dealer for a brand new item when it arrives from the manufacturer but these same people are unwilling to buy that exact same new product months later from a secondary source at a fraction of the original cost.  

Peter

 CW Burfle - I don't get your point about spare parts availability affecting resale value - in the context of this thread. We're talking about buying a 2017 high-end locomotive or passenger set in 2017 - just from a secondary market source. The spare parts availability has zero to do with why someone would pay $2000 for a set of say Sunset passenger cars from Sunset  on January 1, 2017 and this same set, in brand new condition, won't sell at say $1,400 from an eBay seller on May 1, 2017. 

Well, I will admit to assuming that the item being resold would be used.
Are we taking about new or used?
Used is used, even if it is in brand new condition.
Test run is used.

That written, when you buy on EBay, there is no warrantee, and while EBay buyer protection is pretty good, there is always a chance of being dissatisfied with your purchase and having little recourse.

I guess the lack of warrantee relates to a potential lack of parts.
And I only commented about repairs/ spare parts after someone compared a model train to an automobile.

PJB posted:

Joe - I hear you. But if what you say is true, no one would be placing BTO or preorders for any of this stuff.  Right?  I mean why bother?  The glut of secondary market stuff is ever-present.  So if everyone can buy similar items for a fraction of new item cost, there would be almost no need to ever even consider buying anything new.  I mean that is your point taken to its logical conclusion.  And that can't explain why people will and do pay big bucks to a dealer for a brand new item when it arrives from the manufacturer but these same people are unwilling to buy that exact same new product months later from a secondary source at a fraction of the original cost.  

Peter

 I didn't say the hobby is dead, I implied the market has had a significant and noticeable drop in participation from its high water mark a decade ago.  As an example, this month issue of a popular toy train magazine received yesterday speaks volumes as it felt more like a pamphlet.

I'd knock GGD off the list of items that don't hold value.  I look for them all the time online and everyone I've seen has either been just slightly under list or is more expensive than when it was originally sold.  There just aren't enough cars made to even find them online very often, especially the sets.  The PS standard aluminum cars online now are listed at $250.00 each when the original sales price was $150.00.   The plastic coaches, head end cars and sleepers are still going for over $100 and the original run of those cars were in the $125 dollar range.  The two sets listed on eBay today are both well above original sales price.

The K-line 21" aluminum passenger car market is similar even when several of those sets have been redone by GGD with more accuracy and better detail.  I rarely see a K-line 21" car under $100.00 which is close to the original cost 15 years ago. 

High end brass such as Kohs, Key, Overland and some of the others still go for list price or more sometime 25 or more years after they were released.

For most Lionel, MTH, most K-line, Bachmann, Williams, Atlas, and older Sunset / 3rd Rail brass prior to electronics I expect the prices to be about $0.60 on the dollar or less because production was so much higher on the number of units.  Even then, there are exceptions such as the Lionel's fabulous JLC line, those small run odd ball paint schemes on Proto-2 MTH locomotives, or Atlas's wood reefer series. 

My point is simply that it is difficult to make a blanket statement of declining values.  Many trains are sold for less than original price, but certainly not all. 

I suppose it's possible that there will always be a segment of folks who are so enamored with "being the first to own something", that they'll spend whatever market premiums are in play to grab something new at their LHS or pre-order it based on the catalog image/description.  Just comes with the territory, and that's what the importers are counting on.

I've always been puzzled as well to watch enthusiasts literally trip over themselves to buy something the day the LHS receives it, but then these same folks will dicker over $5 and free shipping for the same item listed on the for-sale forum as if the seller is a fool.   

I guess the glut of toy trains on the market has finally gotten to the best of us in one degree or another.  Just look at the negative/cynical attitudes over on the thread talking about an estate sale out west.  And then look at how slow items are moving on the forum's for-sale boards recently.  Then again, perhaps everyone's tapped out with mega-$$$$ pre-orders and they're saving their mad-money piggybank for York!   

David

Perfect storm.....very high MSRP, lots of product and a glut of used stuff....added to a shrinking market.......buyers market. 

I've heard industry folks say they need to produce while they have a market......leading to too much stuff.....loswer prices.

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

I suppose it's possible that there will always be a segment of folks who are so enamored with "being the first to own something", that they'll spend whatever market premiums are in play to grab something new at their LHS or pre-order it based on the catalog image/description.  Just comes with the territory, and that's what the importers are counting on.

I've always been puzzled as well to watch enthusiasts literally trip over themselves to buy something the day the LHS receives it, but then these same folks will dicker over $5 and free shipping for the same item listed on the for-sale forum as if the seller is a fool.   

I guess the glut of toy trains on the market has finally gotten to the best of us in one degree or another.  Just look at the negative/cynical attitudes over on the thread talking about an estate sale out west.  And then look at how slow items are moving on the forum's for-sale boards recently.  Then again, perhaps everyone's tapped out with mega-$$$$ pre-orders and they're saving their mad-money piggybank for York!   

David

I don't know why people even bother with the buy sell forum now. Nothing seems to sell,only if you really cut the prices down really LOW!

Ebay is the way to go.

PJB posted:

JTrains posted:

Perhaps the more interesting/insightful question is, "why are people selling recently-manufactured NIB items?"  A basic fact of business is: buying at retail to sell soon thereafter at aftermarket retail is seldom a money-making strategy.

That's sort of irrelevant, isn't it?  Someone could lose their job or have a sudden medical expense or any other reason. The question is why would people be willing to pay $$$$ to buy a new product from a dealer and yet that same group of people will not pay $$ to buy that same item a few months later from a secondary source?  

Here's my theory.  The initial customers of these items fall into two categories: those who actually want it, and those hoping to resell it shortly thereafter.  My supposition is that the first category often consists of virtually everyone who really has to own one.  Once those people get theirs direct from the manufacturer, there just aren't many people left for the second group to sell to.  When this second group then tries to, they find the market very soft as there aren't any consumers left - at least at initial prices, sans the warranty.

My supposition would be that the number of people that fall into a third category of "unexpectedly need to raise money after buying for their own use" is quite small.  The point in asking my question, thus, is: anyone who is buying limited-run items at retail looking to resell them quickly is more times than not destined to be left holding the bag (or, in our case, box).

"And the band played on".......

Maybe even on and on? CUE violin solo!

AMCDave posted:

Perfect storm.....very high MSRP, lots of product and a glut of used stuff....added to a shrinking market.......buyers market. 

I've heard industry folks say they need to produce while they have a market......leading to too much stuff.....loswer prices.

Dave,

You've fallen right into the conundrum that I am struggling with. You've pointed out that the polar opposites: (a) people buying at "very high MSRPs" (I know you mean respective street prices) and (b) a glut in the secondary market, coexist.  And they do coexist.  But from a logic standpoint, I just don't see the rationale for it.  Basically, if people that are willing to spend big bucks on brand new items when they arrive at the dealer, why are these same people unwilling to spend similar money on the exact same brand new items months later when they appear in the secondary market?  

Saying there is a glut is also true. But that glut existed before the buyer decided to preorder that $2k locomotive or passenger set.  They knew it and yet still preordered. Or maybe they are kicking themselves because they want one, didn't preorder and the dealer is out of stock. Months later, that same person sees that item on say eBay and, even though they would have paid $2k for it at the dealer a few months ago, they are now unwilling to spend that same $2k or anywhere near it to but that same exact brand new item off eBay.  I just don't get it....

Just to throw in here:  I made a really dumb move in 2000 when I located and paid $2000 for aLionel Allegheny steamer that had appeared in the catalog in 1997 (?) for around $1300 MSRP.  It had been touted as Lionel's first articulated steam locomotive, so I wanted to grab one, thinking then that I'd have a 'milestone' piece in my collection.  It's a #28028 Virginian that only saw the light of day when I opened the box when I bought it.  Live and learn.....

     Hoppy

cswalter posted:

I don't know why people even bother with the buy sell forum now. Nothing seems to sell,only if you really cut the prices down really LOW!

Ebay is the way to go.

Because it's easier to list items and there is no transaction fee?

What, me worry? 

You've fallen right into the conundrum that I am struggling with. You've pointed out that the polar opposites: (a) people buying at "very high MSRPs" (I know you mean respective street prices) and (b) a glut in the secondary market, coexist.  And they do coexist.  But from a logic standpoint, I just don't see the rationale for it.  Basically, if people that are willing to spend big bucks on brand new items when they arrive at the dealer, why are these same people unwilling to spend similar money on the exact same brand new items months later when they appear in the secondary market?  

It's not the same people. The people who were willing to spend big bucks already bought theirs when the items were brand new in the stores.

Some people call the phenomena "Limited Market".
Louis Hertz wrote about it in his book " The Toy Collector". 

Here is the basic idea:  There are only so many people willing to pay top dollar for any given item. Once those people have theirs, then the price of the item drops to whatever next highest value that someone is willing to pay. I think Hertz used the example of discovering a full carton of new old stock toy cars that had previously been thought to be valuable. 

Here is a link to the book: The Toy Collector

PJB posted

Dave,

You've fallen right into the conundrum that I am struggling with. You've pointed out that the polar opposites: (a) people buying at "very high MSRPs" (I know you mean respective street prices) and (b) a glut in the secondary market, coexist.  And they do coexist.  But from a logic standpoint, I just don't see the rationale for it.  Basically, if people that are willing to spend big bucks on brand new items when they arrive at the dealer, why are these same people unwilling to spend similar money on the exact same brand new items months later when they appear in the secondary market?  

Saying there is a glut is also true. But that glut existed before the buyer decided to preorder that $2k locomotive or passenger set.  They knew it and yet still preordered. Or maybe they are kicking themselves because they want one, didn't preorder and the dealer is out of stock. Months later, that same person sees that item on say eBay and, even though they would have paid $2k for it at the dealer a few months ago, they are now unwilling to spend that same $2k or anywhere near it to but that same exact brand new item off eBay.  I just don't get it....

Why do folks buy the new stuff at a high MSRP? Same logic that lines people up for days in advance for the next iphone.....gotta have it!!! My ZTE smart phone does 90% of thr $800 iphone and they give them for free NO strings!!! 

I'm happy folks dump the older stuff.....I'd not have a Big Boy, WM Shay or many others if folks didn't dump them for a whistle that smokes!!

PJB,

 YOU aren't LISTENING,   WHY would anyone pay any where near retail for any item shortly after release that DOESN'T HAVE a WARRANTY?

 The new electronics are so TROUBLESOME on so many NEW items, that to buy them from an UNauthorized seller, basically USED (even in an unopened carton) the MFGR, is NOT going to honor any warranty that SHOULD exist/remain, they aren't known for honoring a warranty to the ORIGINAL BUYER a day after it expires.

 I KNOW that from EXPERIENCE, when the Lionel TMCC Crane Car came out in Union Pacific, I didn't have TMCC yet, but KNEW if I wanted the Union Pacific version to buy it when released. Legacy had been announced, but suffered MANY DELAYS, I figured why buy TMCC with Legacy on the way? Well by the time Legacy WAS FINALLY released the warranty on my TMCC Crane Car had EXPIRED, only to find out that it was DOA, BRAND NEW IN THE BOX, with a bad Motor Driver Board. It cost ME $160.00 PLUS SHIPPING to fix a BRAND NEW Car, that only cost $320, it cost me half as much to fix it unused as it cost to buy brand new. Then Mike at Lionel, Literally took MONTHES replying to my emails regarding the situation, and said that it was too late to credit back my debit card that I paid for the repair with. He did offer a $45.00 credit on Future parts and repairs, Gee Thanks.

 So, WHY wont I pay more than 50% of retail on a "New in the Box" item that isn't from an AUTHORIZED DEALER? It is a GAMBLE, and the newer electronics just don't hold up. I bought my Legacy Big Boy and FEF-3's and Legacy GS-4 NEW from my LTS, The Legacy Big Boy and the Black FEF-3 have had the Electronics FAIL on them, with VERY LOW USAGE on them, BUT of course AFTER the warranty EXPIRED, I haven't even tried to get them fixed yet, so I don't know what those are going to cost to get running again. I don't have a layout now, and they would get so little use that I have other interests where I would get more Enjoyment/Benefit from the same money, that I don't know when I will get them fixed.

 There are many newer locomotives that I would like to have, but the reliability issues just don't make them worth the gamble. There are some that even with the Limited use I would get out of them, I would still buy because I would like to have them, my modeling/collecting is very focused on UP and SP Steam and Weyerhaeuser Timber Co., I would like them in my collection, I just don't feel the reliability GAMBLE is worth it, and I am a regular LOTTERY Player.

Evidently, I am not the ONLY one who feels that a WARANTY is needed, even if of LIMITED Value,

Doug

challenger3980 posted:

PJB,

 YOU aren't LISTENING,   WHY would anyone pay any where near retail for any item shortly after release that DOESN'T HAVE a WARRANTY?

 The new electronics are so TROUBLESOME on so many NEW items, that to buy them from an UNauthorized seller, basically USED (even in an unopened carton) the MFGR, is NOT going to honor any warranty that SHOULD exist/remain, they aren't known for honoring a warranty to the ORIGINAL BUYER a day after it expires.

 I KNOW that from EXPERIENCE, when the Lionel TMCC Crane Car came out in Union Pacific, I didn't have TMCC yet, but KNEW if I wanted the Union Pacific version to buy it when released. Legacy had been announced, but suffered MANY DELAYS, I figured why buy TMCC with Legacy on the way? Well by the time Legacy WAS FINALLY released the warranty on my TMCC Crane Car had EXPIRED, only to find out that it was DOA, BRAND NEW IN THE BOX, with a bad Motor Driver Board. It cost ME $160.00 PLUS SHIPPING to fix a BRAND NEW Car, that only cost $320, it cost me half as much to fix it unused as it cost to buy brand new. Then Mike at Lionel, Literally took MONTHES replying to my emails regarding the situation, and said that it was too late to credit back my debit card that I paid for the repair with. He did offer a $45.00 credit on Future parts and repairs, Gee Thanks.

 So, WHY wont I pay more than 50% of retail on a "New in the Box" item that isn't from an AUTHORIZED DEALER? It is a GAMBLE, and the newer electronics just don't hold up. I bought my Legacy Big Boy and FEF-3's and Legacy GS-4 NEW from my LTS, The Legacy Big Boy and the Black FEF-3 have had the Electronics FAIL on them, with VERY LOW USAGE on them, BUT of course AFTER the warranty EXPIRED, I haven't even tried to get them fixed yet, so I don't know what those are going to cost to get running again. I don't have a layout now, and they would get so little use that I have other interests where I would get more Enjoyment/Benefit from the same money, that I don't know when I will get them fixed.

 There are many newer locomotives that I would like to have, but the reliability issues just don't make them worth the gamble. There are some that even with the Limited use I would get out of them, I would still buy because I would like to have them, my modeling/collecting is very focused on UP and SP Steam and Weyerhaeuser Timber Co., I would like them in my collection, I just don't feel the reliability GAMBLE is worth it, and I am a regular LOTTERY Player.

Evidently, I am not the ONLY one who feels that a WARANTY is needed, even if of LIMITED Value,

Doug

 

I'm not? I commented on warranty further up.  Maybe you just aren't reading... 

C W Burfle posted:

Basically, if people that are willing to spend big bucks on brand new items when they arrive at the dealer, why are these same people unwilling to spend similar money on the exact same brand new items months later when they appear in the secondary market?  

It's not the same people. The people who were willing to spend big bucks already bought theirs when the items were brand new in the stores.

Bingo.

cswalter posted:

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

I suppose it's possible that there will always be a segment of folks who are so enamored with "being the first to own something", that they'll spend whatever market premiums are in play to grab something new at their LHS or pre-order it based on the catalog image/description.  Just comes with the territory, and that's what the importers are counting on.

I've always been puzzled as well to watch enthusiasts literally trip over themselves to buy something the day the LHS receives it, but then these same folks will dicker over $5 and free shipping for the same item listed on the for-sale forum as if the seller is a fool.   

I guess the glut of toy trains on the market has finally gotten to the best of us in one degree or another.  Just look at the negative/cynical attitudes over on the thread talking about an estate sale out west.  And then look at how slow items are moving on the forum's for-sale boards recently.  Then again, perhaps everyone's tapped out with mega-$$$$ pre-orders and they're saving their mad-money piggybank for York!   

David

I don't know why people even bother with the buy sell forum now. Nothing seems to sell,only if you really cut the prices down really LOW!

Ebay is the way to go.

My personal observation is that a large percentage of items in the for-sale forum are grossly overpriced for the current market.  Ditto for the people who keep hauling the same stuff to meets over and over.  I don't see ebay being a great place to sell - unless an item is highly desirable, the net amount that is realized won't be all that great. 

As for the other observations, why would someone pay more than +/- 60 or 70% of the original street price for something without a warranty and about which you don't know the history?  And if anyone still thinks that trains can be bought as an investment, they need to start paying attention.

C W Burfle posted:

You've fallen right into the conundrum that I am struggling with. You've pointed out that the polar opposites: (a) people buying at "very high MSRPs" (I know you mean respective street prices) and (b) a glut in the secondary market, coexist.  And they do coexist.  But from a logic standpoint, I just don't see the rationale for it.  Basically, if people that are willing to spend big bucks on brand new items when they arrive at the dealer, why are these same people unwilling to spend similar money on the exact same brand new items months later when they appear in the secondary market?  

It's not the same people. The people who were willing to spend big bucks already bought theirs when the items were brand new in the stores.

Some people call the phenomena "Limited Market".
Louis Hertz wrote about it in his book " The Toy Collector". 

Here is the basic idea:  There are only so many people willing to pay top dollar for any given item. Once those people have theirs, then the price of the item drops to whatever next highest value that someone is willing to pay. I think Hertz used the example of discovering a full carton of new old stock toy cars that had previously been thought to be valuable. 

Here is a link to the book: The Toy Collector

You and JTTrains raise a similar theory.  I agree with it.  But I also think there are exceptions.  Meaning, everything that is issued has a finite number, and far fewer end up being resold/available in the market - and I would think this would or should affect price.  

For instance: I wanted a Vision Genset Switcher but missed out when it was first released.  You don't see this locomotive every day on eBay or elsewhere - especially not NOS.  So when a NOS one came up on eBay - not months, but years later (2016) - I paid MSRP, with no warranty.  Why?  Because the way I see it, I would have paid around that much when it first came out, this locomotive isn't that available in the marketplace and, if I want one now, thats the price.  And, in this case, I really don't see how the lack of warranty is even a real consideration.  What's it worth?  Notionally, 5% - 10% - 20% of the item?  So I wasn't willing to miss out on something I wanted that's scarce in the marketplace simply because it lacked warranty.  It would have lacked a warranty at this point regardless of the source from which I bought it at this point.  I think this same argument applies to many items.  

But I do think you and JT have it right in general.  It seems, based on data, those who pay for new things when they are new aren't necessarily the same folks looking to buy these things after they are issued.  

Peter

I buy and sell on the secondary online market and the train show market and the garage sale market.

About eBay if the seller is established and has high rating then I will do it, but the same rule that applies everywhere is even more true there if the deal seems to good to be true it probably is. Concerning holding value, that still might possible but you have a collection of something like McCoy's Trains which are no longer available.     

By the way, one reason I'm inquiring is that it seems there is a sort of fictitious market dynamic.  You have the group that gets excited about the new catalogue and what they will be ordering.  And, let's face it, this is a large group as it keeps the toy train companies in business.  And this paints a picture that paying say $1,600 for a Legacy steamer is reasonable in today's new toy train market, as people are buying them at around this price.  But then, you take a look at the "for sale" forum or eBay or other auction sites and even NOS of this same exact item has trouble cracking $800- 900!  

I personally listed a Premier Mohawk on the "for sale" page here a while back.  It has like 350 scale miles and runs smooth as silk.  I think retail was like $900 on it?  I listed it at $450 - not a nibble!  Can't even sell at 50% off?  Wow...   That's just one example and obviously anecdotal, but it made an impression.  

This has helped me ("helped"? Is that really what I mean...?) buy numerous - too many - items that were more expensive than I was  liking. Top that off with the fact that I'm a "fiddler" and am not afraid to fix and upgrade older items (PS1 locomotives - so nice, so ERR-ready, so cheap), and you have a recipe for gluttony.

Now, if this phenomena would only start applying to the Legacy 700E Hudson...I don't expect PS1 prices, but until they get less-than-stratospheric, I'll make do with...all the others.

There have been many Theories concerning Buying New, Built to Order,BTO, and then Buying on the Pre-Owned Market, both have their own respective places in our Hobby.  Unfortunately, my opinion of buying the newer Toy Trains, with all the Hi-Tech Electronics, is get the best Deal You Can and Enjoy The Play Value as long as you can. They are made to have fun and relaxation with family and friends. Understand, once you take possession of This Nice New Toy Train, it's Used, even if you keep it in moth balls, never opened. Once it's Used, the value Drops a Lot.

The Secondary Market is where I get many of my trains now, and the prices are much more affordable.. Our OGR FORUM, has many nice folks and what they describe is usually correct. I have never had an issue.  You can negotiate usually and both parties are happy....

What I see happening, it's a real issue, Our Train Friends, are getting Old. By this, the Older Generation that was Buying All of the Post War Train Remakes, all the Older Tin Plate Trains Remakes, simply the trains of the late 40's, 50's, 60,s, Etc.... are Passing On...Their collections are being Sold for pennies on the dollar, do to Demand...Or the Lack Therof,  Yes, the old Post War Lionel Trains of the 1950's were great...But, with the Modern Electronics Who would trade a Legacy 765 NKP or Pete Marquette for an older Lionel 736....Wow, or a VL Hudson for a 1950 Hudson.... This is a New Hobby, within a Hobby, called 3 Rail Scale....Yes, the new trains Run Better, have many More Features....Much More FUN.....This is the Best of Times....

Now, everyone has an opinion, mine is Enjoy Your Trains...If one Worries about Getting his or her Money Back, it's Unlikely...No one knows which of these New Trains will be Highly Desired and bring back money like the DieCast ES44's, or VL Hudsons, or Gensets...It just Happens.....(like a New in the Box 1939 Hudson)

 I look forward to the upcoming York Train Meet, so that I can see for myself which direction this Hobby is going...It's Gonna B Fun.....Happy Railroading...

PJB posted:

You have the group that gets excited about the new catalogue and what they will be ordering.  And, let's face it, this is a large group as it keeps the toy train companies in business.  

My guess is that this group isn't as big as one might think.  I'd bet a beer that you could go into less than 1,000 homes in the US and find half of Lionel's total high-end/BTO production from the last 15 years. 

leapinlarry posted:

Now, everyone has an opinion, mine is Enjoy Your Trains...If one Worries about Getting his or her Money Back, it's Unlikely...

I agree

I know I may be in the minority, but I have NEVER considered resale value when buying a new train, or train related item.  I still have all my (dad's) original stuff from the 50's, and I have all my stuff from when I got back into the hobby around 1995.

When it comes to buying new,  I only buy from authorized entities, whether Lionel, MTH, Atlas, etc...

Once a modern item crosses to an individual, even if unopened (according to them), I consider it used, and will bid/offer accordingly.   Yes, it's different when you get into collector market things.  I'm talking new items.