Skip to main content

Here is the link to the broad CPI index trends going back to the early 1900s.  You can

go into the data base and find different categories.  The key point is that the USA in contrast to many other countries in the world has not experienced runaway inflation for

the past 125 years.

 

http://inflationdata.com/Infla...x/HistoricalCPI.aspx

 

Let me give you some examples of how not to invest in toy trains.

 

1990 - 2015.  Right of Way trains LN values have dropped about 70%

 

Lionel 700E rerun (Orig 1991 MRSP something like $1400) now can be gotten

for $500-$600 LN

 

Yes, indeed some people will pay huge amounts of money for "one in a kinds" and I say more power to the buyer and seller. 

It won't mean anything. The government statistics are not correct. Your 15.6 number is not even close to being correct. A new ford in 1931 was $345; today say $30,000. That is an increase of 78X.A new house was about $6800, today in Los Angeles anything decent is around $1,000,000! That is an increase of 148X. Of course not all things go up by a factor of 2 every 10 years, but they are closer to that then the government's ridiculous numbers!

 

In any case, all I was talking about is this particular set, a Lionel 407E, which sold for $350 in 1931! My figure of a value of $118,227 based on the rule of 2 every 10 years is deadly accurate for this set!! That is all I am concerned about here. In fact, I seriously doubt you could buy one for that price if a mint, complete example even exists!




Lew is right, reproductions are the WORST possible investments!! An auctioneer here in Los Angeles, whose company has been in business since 1914, once gave me some very sage advice which I will pass along here. He said, "The AVERAGE are born AVERAGE and die AVERAGE; it's the GREAT that go up in value"! I always advise my collector friends instead of buying ten mediocre items, save your money and buy one great one! In the long run, you will be glad you did!

 

BTW, you mention inflation. A friends parents bought their house, a small 900 square foot house in West L.A. (a good neighborhood) in 1964 for $26,500. Today that house will sell for $1,000,000! That is an increase of 37.74 times in 51 years. Using my formula. 2 to the 5.1 power=34.3x! Pretty close 

I know that; it's just that one wire had become disconnected! I thought that it was amazing that it ran as well as it did with one motor! A friend of mine, Larry Pearson and myself, have become real experts in working on these motors. We are able to re-build Lionel Pendulum type units that work flawlessly when we finish with them. Here are a few photos of the motors that were in a magnificent Mojave 408E boxed set that I acquired after I worked on them. The set would run beautifully on about 13 to 14 volts!!

_DSC3431

_DSC3435

_DSC3436

_DSC3437

_DSC3438

And, the final result, the set in operation!

_DSC4443

_DSC4444

_DSC4447

Attachments

Images (8)
  • _DSC3431
  • _DSC3435
  • _DSC3436
  • _DSC3437
  • _DSC3438
  • _DSC4443
  • _DSC4444
  • _DSC4447

The value is priceless, nothing, or somewhere between the two.

 It depends on who's holding the train.

You wouldn't catch me trading my scratched up 2037 for it, for nearly the same reason you bought yours 

 

I think an automobile is an unfair comparison. Advancements in production, and huge numbers, have skewed that price. I think $350 was only half the price of most nice, but non-prestige grade autos.

 A Chris-craft boat was $1,200-40,000.    

 

From a dollar for this or that stand point, I think $350, would be equal to as high as $15,000 in comparable entertainment items today.

 A high end, floor sized radio for the home could be $200. I think the table top ones were $40 for a cheaper one on a good day, $70 for a quality one.

 

  I think the consumer price index puts it at about $7000 by now.

  Id guess that is low too. 

 

Would I ever pay $100,000+ for a train set??

If I could, think I would. So thank you for this vicarious opportunity

 But they could find a pallet full tomorrow. Don't let value ever spoil things for you.

You own it! You've ran it! And even improved its condition! That's love.

 Could you replace it, or the experience, at any price?

No!

Money well spent

I've dealt with other collecting as a business some.

From that standpoint, it was a once in a lifetime item. I do not feel you overpaid.

I think you got off light.

  

 

 

I want to thank you for your kind thoughts! If you are going to strive to acquire the "BEST OF THE BEST", you have to be willing to put some "skin in the game"! I have always felt that even if you paid what was perceived to be an exceptionally high price at any given moment, time will always vindicate the purchases of extraordinary pieces. I enjoy being surrounded by these pieces of "Moving Sculpture", and sharing both the item and my enthusiasm with my fellow collectors. We have all heard of people who never have shared their collections, and I know of one chap in Connecticut who didn't even want to give me his name!! What joy is there in that, and why even bother to collect??

Unlike yourself, I am not retired and have limited time to devote to my various outside interests. The reason I posted this time is because of a note I received from Mark Boyd, and I felt people would be interested in the "back story" of this layout. BTW, my name is clearly posted, so I am not "Dr. Whomever"! It is not a matter of feeling superior, it is a matter of sharing knowledge that was acquired through hard work and research. I am not ashamed of this knowledge! As for feeling superior, let me include a quote from Teddy Roosevelt that expresses it very well:

 

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”

 

In other words, Happy Pappy, the guy that is willing "TO HAVE SOME SKIN IN THE GAME"!! I, along with a number of my associates and employees, are those guys and to quote from Dylan Thomas: "We do not go gently into that good night"!

Dr. Folb,

 

While I do appreciate your love for Classic Era Standard Gauge toy trains, your effort to research and collect these toys, plus your generosity in sharing this info and exhibiting the toys for other collectors and the world at large... I feel you greatly exaggerate the cultural significance of these toy trains.

 

I have commented upon this before. To compare a mass produced object like a toy train, no matter how rare/expensive or beautiful to your eye, to true art like a Klimt or Picasso is misguided in the least and at worst displays cultural ignorance. The average man on the street would never be able to discern the difference between an original 1930's Lionel State Set and a MTH repro, and wouldn't care. Not would an art museum curator. They would see a colorful toy train in action and smile.

 

"The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood..." Teddy Roosevelt was not referring in any way to the collecting of toy trains.

 

In essence, I fear your love of the objects you collect has blinded you to their true context in the World.

 

Bert

 

 

Last edited by MrNabisco

  The issue was your posted statement “A new ford in 1931 was $345; today say $30,000. That is an increase of 78X.”   The numbers which directly apply to that assertion are $385 and $13,965 respectively.  Their ratio remains 36.3 and 36.3 is not equal to 78 even for very large values of 36.3.

 

   If you will recall, the point of the data you provided in that post was to support the position concerning your estimate of price increases and gainsay the citation of the government numbers as well as the comment by lewrail concerning the price of "one of a kind super collectables" and their failure to mirror price changes of a general nature.

 

  In an attempt to get this discussion back to the OP’s original interest in trains and away from imprecision and curious interpretations of statements by TR and D Thomas, is there any chance you could take that Nikon D4S you mentioned over on page one and give us an update, in terms of text and pictures, of the Ives Circus set which, it appears, you wrote about in the Train Collectors Quarterly back in January 1968? 

 

  It would be interesting to see those items in color and hear if you have anything new to add to the history of that purchase.

"They would see ...................................... and smile"

 

At the core, I'd swear it sounds like you are describing looking at art to me.

 

 Or maybe just a badly parked sports car?

 

 Those artists "just" influenced the art world. Not so much the world.

 

The toy trains, influenced thousands more people..... in their youths too.

 

 I see a beautiful metal sculpture containing the evolution of various arts and sciences.

I wonder which "art" Da Vinci would be more interested in?   

 

Considering the art you chose, I find it disheartening you're attempting to label what art is, to other individuals. Keep looking, you may understand in time.

 

  Some artists make series of similar "copies", and even numbered prints with no real 'originals' do they not? 

 

Now pass me that bar napkin with the drunken doodle on it so I can wipe the tin plate drool off my chin.

 

 

 

 

If trains could talk Dr. Folbs State State would have a good idea what this house looked like in the 30's. The house of Henry Benedixon.

 

Now a pool table sits on the porch where maybe Standard gauge trains once roamed.

Taking it full circle and tying everything together. I play pool and have several high end cues which can be a beautiful form of functional art.

I have actually been in contact with the man who currently owns that house and we had a very nice discussion. The house is for sale, and he told me there is a painting of Howard (I made a mistake originally and thought his name was Henry) Bendixen in one of the rooms. I asked him to give me the opportunity to purchase it if whoever buys the house has no interest in it. BTW, the Nethercutt Museum in Sylmar (where I photographed the Duesenberg "20 Grand") has a 1937 Packard that was purchased from Bendixen. I am think about taking the set over there and photographing them together, as the train may have actually ridden in the car at some time!

 

Adriatic totally gets my point, and obviously Nabisco (Bert) does not and never will! Art can be in many forms, and what is important is how any genre affects people. Believe me, I fully understand the situation when TR made that statement and when Dillon Thomas made his! The implications and ideas expressed in these words can well be applied to other situations, and I'm sorry that some people cannot think outside the box!

 

 

 

 

This is a photo that I do not believe has been seen before. When we first displayed the 20th Century, after I acquired it in 2006, this was shot at the Cal-Stewart Meet. A friend of mine, Mike Seibert, owns the carpet and I am trying to find one for myself to hang like a tapestry above the display of the set. Anyone know where such a piece might be available?

FIG. 28A

BTW, I did receive a nice note from "HAPPY PAPPY" thanking me for sharing the information and my thoughts. That is what this should be all about, the exchange of information and ideas about these pieces of "MOVING SCULPTURE"!

Attachments

Images (1)
  • FIG. 28A
Last edited by Dr. martin A. Folb
Originally Posted by Dr. martin A. Folb:

In any case, all I was talking about is this particular set, a Lionel 407E, which sold for $350 in 1931! My figure of a value of $118,227 based on the rule of 2 every 10 years is deadly accurate for this set!!

It's fundamentally easy:

 

Probably couldn't have afforded one back then and definitely can't afford one now!

 

Simon

Considering that only one of these has ever showed up, apparently almost no one else could afford it at the time! I jokingly remarked in the TCA article that the man who bought it for his DAUGHTER was a butcher in Brooklyn by the name of Jeremie Flaco.

 

I was surprised that a butcher would have that type of money available in 1931, and suggested that perhaps his real name was: Jeremie, "THE BUTCHER", Flaco!! lol 

Lionel 407E#1

Notice, that the outfit was packed in 7 BOXES!!!

Attachments

Images (1)
  • Lionel 407E#1

 My Grandmother was a white gloved girl. A large house and staff, she had never even cooked herself a meal until she left that life, to marry my Grandfather. But got quite good.

 

  I have the family Christmas tin train she picked out before she left home.

It was a very nice, and a little unusual, Commodore Vanderbilt set, but only a Marx.

 

I always add this in hopes someday I'll hear "I know about that one"

 The unusual? A long, side dimpled, screw base smoke bulb I can find no reference for, frame mounted bulb socket, not on the body pilot area. A sheet metal shroud for forced air smoke from the headlight hole. And it had wadding around the bulb, between it and the shroud. It connected to the body at the pilot area screw hole, and had a flat sheet metal light shield from the "pilot's hole" to the frame. Two position E-unit. A visor vs a headlight ring, nickel plated domes & stack, and copper w/blk. ink nameplate. The smoke bulb and shrouds, at least 3 cars(?), lots of track, and accessories were "rust dust" when I dug it out of a dirt floor garage. Found by accident its large thick 3'x3.5'(?) box was literally buried in nearly an inch of dirt. The dry dirt and busted down a box side and dirt was slowly filling it. The dirt preserved the rest quite nice, I run it often. But the front paint of the loco, and the items mentioned didn't survive. 

It has square 6" cars, and riveted slot couplers. It had fine grey frame detail paint that has disappeared from dusting it for 30 years.(I only use a soft brush too)

 Another thing. She swore she got it Christmas of "34". Knowing from documents her age, the time she claims to have received it, when they were first made, & the age she left and married(documents), her whole story fits to a T.

 But the info I've found I.D.s it as "36" or even as late as "38"?

 

    

Dr. martin A. Folb posted:

... These extraordinary trains are finally achieving a place in the World of collecting that they so rightfully deserve. While not quite ready to achieve the stratospheric prices of a Gustav Klimt painting of Adele Bloch Bauer ($135,000,000) or a Picasso- “Les femmes d'Alger (Version ‘O&rsquo” ($179,400,000), they have been noticed by as prestigious a publication as The Robb Report. I am enclosing some scans from an article that was done about one of my acquisitions, The 20th Century Limited (Lionel Set #433E), as well as a few other collectors including Ward Kimball (who was a good friend of mine).  

1

 

4

 

7

Dr. Folb, Nice to see an accurate, well written article with quotes by Noel Barrett and an example such as Ward Kimball. It brings back to my memory, the other end of the scale, a bad article that CNN Money did a few years ago. For the B6 switcher, they couldn't even find the right tender, left out the 1939 production, I think the called the tender a coal car... Ahgghh! 

http://money.cnn.com/gallery/s...10/21/lionel-trains/

Tom

Add Reply

Post

OGR Publishing, Inc., 1310 Eastside Centre Ct, Suite 6, Mountain Home, AR 72653
800-980-OGRR (6477)
www.ogaugerr.com

×
×
×
×
Link copied to your clipboard.
×
×