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Originally Posted by leavingtracks:

Perhaps those that really are interested in Weaver producing these cars should contact them directly and make an order anyway and ask to be put on a list of those that would like to have the cars.  Maybe Weaver can then receive enough orders to re-consider...???

 

Alan

Now the we've cried in our beer the voice (Alan) of reason has spoken.  Thanks Alan.

 

 O scale Train sales are basically over with.

When O scale car prices jumped from $35.00 to $55.00 - $75.00 4 years ago that was it.

There seems to be a stronger European market.

 

I see the same cars month after month on ebay that dealers can’t sell. The suppliers- marketers should have switched to the Philippines if they expected to keep prices down. Not China.

 

As is so often the case in situations like this, we really don't know the whole story:  Weaver hasn't responded with their perspective. 

 

But, then, most of our suppliers under scrutiny for their less-than-popular marketing and manufacturing decisions won't directly enter into the fray with their perspective. That's the way it's been, that's the way it'll be.  Tough it out.  Move on.

 

That said, we can only suppose that Weaver management is as disappointed as the OP of this thread and others who share his view that the latest announced run of troop cars cannot be justified from a business perspective.  After all, the basic tooling for these cars is sitting idle.  Idle tooling makes no money.  No income from existing assets is a very, very bad situation for any business....especially one dependent on discretionary income/spending such as the hobby industry.

 

If the ROI...Return On Investment...of this tooling is only to be measured by the production to date, and if that is marginal to original projections (This we don't know, we won't be told, and Weaver has no responsibility to tell the consuming public.), it can have a chilling effect on advancing funds for new tooling to make new product...something we in this hobby hope for day-to-day, month-to-month, year-to-year. No, they'd much rather have that tooling making many more of the item, achieving their original ROI goals...or exceeding them!

 

Assembling all of the elements for a production run has a calculable cost.  And that cost...which includes necessary profit, folks....can only be met with a minimum sized production run.  Orders not there?  Not a 'go' decision.  These costs and criteria, BTW, are undoubtedly more complicated for off-shore production.  I believe other discussions have identified that some of Weaver's most popular products, new releases are in fact made off-shore and not in PA.

 

But, I can also agree that Weaver and other major players in this hobby could do a better job of telling us some rudimentary facts governing today's production.  For instance, and in this thread's example, what minimum order size is typically...or specifically, in the case of Scott Mann's 3rd Rail and GGD limited production items...required to become viable.  AND, through periodic postings, news blogs, dealer advisories, etc., during the ordering period, has this threshold been met, is it expected to be achieved by the cutoff date, or is it falling far short of expectations?

 

I remember that Broadway Limited, a relatively new, innovative manufacturer of HO and N scale engines, once had on their website a device called a 'Build-o-meter', or some such moniker.  For all the world it looked like the swinging needle over an elevator door indicating what floor the elevator was on.  Broadway used this analog graphic to keep viewers apprised of how advanced orders were progressing.  It was clearly understood that, if the Build-O-Meter didn't get all the way over to the green zone, the product might never see the light of day.  It was effective, at least, in communicating why an announced new product was falling farther and farther behind its original production date forecast. 

 

Perhaps the graphic was an encouragement to many to make an advance order to move the needle.  I doubt it.  As several responses above have opined, many of us are not prone to make a buying commitment without something tangible to persuade us.  We need to have all of our senses experience the item before making a purchase.  Which is, essentially, our way of being asincere buyer; which is important to this discussion, because.....

 

As if we didn't need any more fluffy-bun measures of marketing, the one thing that hurts a manufacturer/buyer relationship more than anything is insincerity in a commitment.   If someone...a wholesaler, retailer, consumer...makes a commitment to a manufacturer, and then reneges on it, the whole relationship will fall apart...often forever.  So, not many manufacturers are willing to speculate in the absence of sincere commitment.  Of course, that's true at each step of the buyer-seller relationship along the daisy chain, too. 

 

It's a complicated situation.  But I trust Weaver's latest decision as in the best interests for their business...and all of us...and their long term participation/growth in the hobby.  If there's a better way to manage the whole process from announcement to after-the-sale support, I'm confident they'll get there.  Positive suggestions, rather than predictions/rumors of demise, are worthwhile and probably appreciated.

 

That's just MHO, of course.

 

KD

Originally Posted by dkdkrd:

After all, the basic tooling for these cars is sitting idle.  Idle tooling makes no money.  No income from existing assets is a very, very bad situation for any business....especially one dependent on discretionary income/spending such as the hobby industry.

 

 

So, does that mean all of the tooling should be in use all of the time producing products that there is apparently little market for at a given time?

 

Having a warehouse full of unsold stock piling up is also bad business.

 

Rusty

Originally Posted by Landsteiner:

"O scale Train sales are basically over with."

 

So why do Lionel and MTH keep putting out these huge catalogs and producing the most incredible variety of three rail trains ever seen in the history of the hobby?  If the sales are cratering, there's no evidence of it at Lionel, MTH, Charles Ro, Nassau Hobbies, etc.

Maybe, it should read "O scale train blowouts are basically over."

 

Rusty

Well, I'm late to the party as usual.

 

I am both upset and relieved these cancelled. I want them but the cost was going to hurt if they all hit at once.

I had a full set of these troop cars on order through my LHS, who told me he already had them on order when I placed my order.

 

Lets all hope there is enough feedback on the cancellation to make them reconsider. Or at least offer again next year with an unmarked version to suck in the extra numbers needed.

Last edited by Russell
Originally Posted by leavingtracks:

Perhaps those that really are interested in Weaver producing these cars should contact them directly and make an order anyway and ask to be put on a list of those that would like to have the cars.  Maybe Weaver can then receive enough orders to re-consider...???

 

Alan

No fair expressing rational thought - 20 demerits!

We see the same thing in some automotive arenas.

 

A company that manufactures reproduction parts to help get your classic car on the road will ask us if people would be interested in some widget.

 

Everyone and his brother responds favorably.  We also have a lot of "I just know if they made this they'd sell a ton," people speaking up, just as they do here on OGR about trains.

 

Then the truth comes in.  The company announces a pre-order, and get far fewer orders than it would take to ramp up production.  So they decided to cancel or hold off.

 

Then everyone says, "hey that's bad....everyone would buy one..."

 

And the circle continues.

 

What we do, I see has been suggested in this thread.  We will get firm orders with deposits for at least a minimum number, and go to the manufacturer with that.  Then the parts/items get made.

 

Even on my automotive site with close to 75K registered members, we are still a very small niche community.   Just like OGR.    Something I learned a long time ago, is that there is a huge difference between registered members and active members.

 

Someone else pointed this out in this thread.  Of all the posters here only about 30 people have said they'd like the Weaver cars.

 

I dealt with this very same thing in another life in my medical device manufacturing business.   I had to learn, sometimes the hard way, that anecdotal, "everyone would like this device" statements do NOT equal sales.

 

 

Originally Posted by Rusty Traque:
Originally Posted by dkdkrd:

After all, the basic tooling for these cars is sitting idle.  Idle tooling makes no money.  No income from existing assets is a very, very bad situation for any business....especially one dependent on discretionary income/spending such as the hobby industry.

 

 

So, does that mean all of the tooling should be in use all of the time producing products that there is apparently little market for at a given time?

 

Having a warehouse full of unsold stock piling up is also bad business.

 

Rusty

True. Andy Edleman of MTH recently told me that MTH doesn't really start realizing profit from new tooling until the 2nd and 3rd runs. I'm not sure I believe that 100%, but I understand the premise of what he is saying. The part he left out was you actually have to SELL what you make... Doesn't matter which run it is if you are stuck with inventory that won't sell.

Originally Posted by Landsteiner:

"O scale Train sales are basically over with."

 

So why do Lionel and MTH keep putting out these huge catalogs and producing the most incredible variety of three rail trains ever seen in the history of the hobby?  If the sales are cratering, there's no evidence of it at Lionel, MTH, Charles Ro, Nassau Hobbies, etc.

I get what you are saying but part of me is also concerned. I have lots of friends younger than me (I'm 40) and they don't have the extra cash each month to pick up a hobby as expensive as O scale model railroading. They also don't have the nostalgic connection lots of people here on this forum have which brought them back to the scale after many years away. I'm not really sure what this means for the future but I do have to agree, if prices keep going up, we're going to have a problem. I even sometimes wonder if I picked the wrong scale to get back into trains. I love the large size but I could do so much more with HO in the space I have and I think many people take space requirements into consideration.

 

You mention the large catalogs of great stuff the manufacturers have put out but there is also Lionel's new build to order system, MTH having things shipping a long time after it's cataloged as well as the huge backlog of production that Atlas is facing right now. 3-rail O scale will never go away but I'm starting to think that maybe the hobby has peaked over the last few years in terms of the wide variety of engines and rolling stock offered. Lately, it's lots of re-releases of things that shipped years prior or Lionel releasing something that MTH has already done etc. I read somewhere that MTH thought that engines having PS3 would sell lots more engines but I'm certainly not replacing my PS2 engines with the same model just because it has PS3. Tooling new things is going to be very expensive and as time goes on, if we lose people in the hobby due to whatever, it's going to be harder and harder for manufacturers to justify all new toolings for a much smaller audience. 

Last edited by bazonkers

I had a pre-order in for the converted REA express car lettered for NYC.  I even contacted the New York Central System Historical Society asking them to consider getting involved (they have recently begun offering more O scale equipment).  I actually found out about the cancellation from the NYCSHS late last week and received a letter from Weaver today.  The first run of these troop cars are difficult to obtain, even on Ebay. 

Originally Posted by rattler21:

The troop sleepers have a lighted interior, much under frame and end of car detail (whatever those things are dangling at each corner) and windows.  As an operator, I do not need the under frame detail nor the end of car details and really don't need the lights and interior.  Using the same molds without the under frame details and end of car details. but leaving the windows without the lighting, could 200 cars be run and offered at a catalog price of $75?  Only Weaver can answer that question as such a car may require at least one new mold. How many cars were in the first run? I don't know if the end of car details are molded on the floor or on the shell.

These would be ideal for add on cars if you have some first run cars.  Or being deadheaded where there wouldn't be any interior lights, or.......  This would be similar to a dummy B unit or a dummy steam engine.  Looks like, but isn't.

Is there a market for such a car?  How many would you commit to?

John in Lansing, Ill

Not quite sure where you are going with your comments John but it seems like you might be possibly leaning towards the troop sleeper in an undecorated kit form where you can utilize whatever parts you want.  That being said I don't feel it would be of any savings from Weaver to their retailers or online buyers to produce the car sans all the detailing you don't want or need.  I would venture to state that the majority of us like added realism these detail parts help create.  Otherwise, in my opinion, you wind up with freight cars similar to postwar Lionel semi-scale stuff with all the details molded in. 

Those "things" you made mention of that are dangling at each corner are the air brake, steam heat and signal lines that all passenger equipment is required to have. 

JEFF

I would have bought at least several cars in different versions troop/hospital, to complete my military train. I cannot comment on what this cancellation says about the state of hobby affairs. For all we know, Weaver developed plans to make more profitable cars/locomotives or other projects. The cancellation does not necessarily mean that hobby sales are down. The Lionel catalogue has been mentioned as an example of manufacturer optimism. I feel that Lionel is overly optimistic about sales. Perhaps, Weaver is overly pessimistic? In any event, market equilibrium will tell us the answer.

 

As the economy improves, one would feel that sales in our hobby would improve, too.

One caveat I would mention is that I am maxed out from years of crazy purchases. I have done much more selling than buying over the course of the last two years. If my behavior is becoming more common, Weaver's decision makes more sense. My locomotive purchase[s] this year will be one Lionel Legacy Cab Forward. If I can pick up a couple of Weaver troop cars I will complete my military train.

Last edited by Scrapiron Scher

In New Buffalo Michigan there is a small Pere Marquette museam. 

3 engine round house now a work out place, the engine turn around is removed and now is a pond with geese swimming.

There is an original coal tower in pretty good shape several RR cars one of which is a  Sleeper car. I have been in it several times and always thought it would be a cool item in O-Scale.

Tonight I find out Weaver was about to produce the military Hospital car, sleeper and a few others. I think they would look good on any lay-out.

I know they would be pricey but i got to imagine if Weaver offers them again for pre-order many would bite I would

T4TT,

   Yep I lost the order I made, and I was like Russell, praying all the cars would not be delivered at the same time, because of the cost.  Real nice military rolling stock for my Special Forces Train, but the cost was a might high, I believe if the cost had been more reasonable, the order numbers would not have been a problem.

PCRR/Dave

 

Last edited by Pine Creek Railroad
Originally Posted by Bobby Lee:

I have one Weaver hospital car (two rail) and one Weaver troop sleeper (two rail) in like new condition for sale.

Thanks for posting your troop cars for sale.  Unfortunately I run 3 rail.  I did acquire one via Ebay that was painted and lettered for REA.  Excellent condition and fair price with shipping.  If I can find another one I may considering repainting it for NYC.  Interesting that this thread has come alive again. 

Bobby Lee,

 

I wish you had a troop Kitchen car.

 

Have you checked on the condition of the metal frames on your weaver troop cars? These frames are warping on several runs of these cars, and actually falling apart. There is a long thread about this problem here on the forum. Weaver is not stepping up to help out those of us who have spent a lot of money for these cars that are now useless. I have had to replace two metal frames with plastic frames.

 

Richard

When I first saw these Weaver Army troop cars several years ago, nothing was available but 2-rail. I bought three (have 2 left) at prices I am embarrassed to mention hoping to have Weaver help me convert them to 3-rail.  I gave up on that and posted them asking $40.00 each.  The 2-rail Kitchen car sold several weeks ago.  I have been following the warping thread but my seven 3-rail cars and now two 2-rail cars have not shown any signs of warping.        

My opinion, is that there are two types of frames on these Troop cars, those that have failed and those that might someday fail!

 

I have three sleepers that at this time show no sign of warping and a kitchen car that has a warped frame.  I hope, in the next couple of months to pull the frames off all four cars.

 

That said, I would still like to add another two sleepers to my set.

 

Jim

Bobby Lee,

 

I think your best source for finding a set of Allied Cushioned trucks will be to find a damaged troop sleeper, or find an inexpensive express car version of the troop sleeper. That is how I found the set of correct trucks for the 2 rail sleeper I converted to a NYC MOW car.  You will end up paying more then the new three rail trucks would have cost from Weaver, but their is no other source at this time.

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