What is your take on the used train market?

David

The Lionel thinking back around the 90s I believe was that not everyone who bought the initial set would be a customer for add ons . In the case of the Madison cars the add on was the Madison baggage car and we know that Lionel misjudged the demand for this one. The same was true with the add on B unit for the Santa Fe F-3 ABA Streamliner set from about the same time period. Lionel took up the idea of the add on to sets to spur collector interest in its products as a big part of its market appeal were toy train collectors .

The Phenolic cars are quite interesting . They are scale dimensioned and  were made pretty much as they might have been in the 1940s .What makes them "semi-scale" so to speak is that they were equipped with the deep flange trucks and lionel "claw" couplers rather than scale wheels and couplers. That was how Lionel denoted the difference back in 1941 for the product produced at that time.The 1991 catalog that showed those Madisons and the phenolic cars picturing them with the 1-700E Hudson and the Scale B-6 switcher. These were the most advanced lionel sets in the 1941 catalog from 50 years earlier. The Madison cars from 1991 are very similar in color to the prewar cars , more brown than the maroon or tuscan cars released in the postwar years. The stock car and Refrigerator car produced shortly after the release of the phenolics in 1991 have always interested me as I wondered if they were made from tooling that may have existed back in 1941. The war would have precluded their release and in the immediate postwar period, these sets were maybe contemplated by Lionel but never made. 

Still plenty of postwar and pre war trains... To look for old timers are passing ... So collections come more available ...  Supply and demand.... I will always love postwar and pre war trains...!  They still run! And are made in America not China! No thank you...

I think it is difficult to justify buying an engine that is 6 years old for just $100 off the MSRP. I would prefer to get an engine that is new with the three year warranty for a little bit more. Just my two cents.

Rails posted:

Still plenty of postwar and pre war trains... To look for old timers are passing ... So collections come more available ...  Supply and demand.... I will always love postwar and pre war trains...!  They still run! And are made in America not China! No thank you...

Rails, your reply was one week short of a full year since the previous reply.

How is it that you found this thread after all this time? 

High end items of any kind usually hold their value.  Brass cars hold the interest of modelers drawn to them, very few brass items are being made today and more modelers have more disposable income and can fill their desire to have first class items on their layout.  People who are upgrading their rolling stock are drawn towards brass cars.  On the other hand, people entering the hobby seldom care for Pecos River, Intermountain and Weaver kits.  John

I take time to look at E-Bay but mainly but at Local TCA shows here in NC.  I do not want to take the chance on something (especially and Engine)  and have it end up as a shelf queen.  I have run into some very fair deals at the local train shows.  

booker110 posted:

I think it is difficult to justify buying an engine that is 6 years old for just $100 off the MSRP. I would prefer to get an engine that is new with the three year warranty for a little bit more. Just my two cents.

The three years we seen thrown about is not 3 years of warranty from when you purchase it, it is a three year timer from the production/manufacturing/delivery date to the stores.  During that 3 year window, the manufacturer/importer is willing to extend the traditional warranty, generally one year to original purchaser.  After that 3 year window, the manufacturer/importer is basically stating you are on your own.

Determining that starting date for the "window" is a whole other quandary, since they don't stamp it on the box anywhere like a loaf of bread.

With a few exceptions, most modern trains come with a one year warranty to the original purchaser from the date you buy it from an authorized dealer. 

-Dave

Five years ago I bought a mint $60 box car at the "bottom dropped out of the market price" of $20. I recently decided to sell it - still in mint condition but listed it as used because the box had shelf wear. After 3 attempts on eBay I managed to get one bid and sold it for $8. This and other similar experiences made me think the used market is weak except for top quality in the box postwar. I have decided to sell only junk - broken things and clean out the bottom of the closet. Of course now I am adding to the weakness of the market.....

I pretty much only sell here on OGR.  I've found that if it's fairly priced , it sells quickly.  Sometimes I put the "I don't really want to sell it price" on something.  If it sells I'm happy & if it doesn't, I'm happy to keep it.  I've also bought some really nice things here on OGR at what I consider very fair prices.  

What really bothers me is something that I saw at the December Greenberg show in Wilmington MA.  There were people selling Menards' cars for $40 to $50 each car.  Now I just shook my head and walked away, but there were people unfamiliar with the product, buying it at those prices for their kids.  They were comparing it to Lionel & MTH cars at the same booth.  Lionel is competing now with the new "no box" 027 cars.

Do many of you also notice the same dealers with the same inventory of post war trains, selling at the same prices, at the same shows year after year? Those are dealers that are still stuck in high demand years of the 1970's. The trains that they are selling are mostly shelf queens as many are not good runners. The P/W wheels on axle cars restrict one to running a short consist. Some of the early F3's with the growler motors emit a noise that is annoying. The vibrotor powered accessories are temperamental and all of the engines ( even those that run well)  have motors that consume gobs of power but will last nearly forever. I would venture to say that the majority of collectors at this point have all of the post war trains that they wanted and more than they could ever use in four lifetimes. Its a buyers market and prices will continue to decline. Not only has new technology taken over, the demographic of those that buy the trains is changing rapidly.

Pingman posted:

Rails posted:

Still plenty of postwar and pre war trains... To look for old timers are passing ... So collections come more available ...  Supply and demand.... I will always love postwar and pre war trains...!  They still run! And are made in America not China! No thank you...

Rails, your reply was one week short of a full year since the previous reply.

How is it that you found this thread after all this time? 

It's OK. I am glad to see my old thread revived.

Since the OP I have still lots of trains and accessories to give away, er - I mean sell. I have even gone to bundling to attract buyers. There is such a HUGE market out there and a shrinking pool of buyers. The 100's and 100's of member tables at York give evidence of that.

bigo426 posted:

Five years ago I bought a mint $60 box car at the "bottom dropped out of the market price" of $20. I recently decided to sell it - still in mint condition but listed it as used because the box had shelf wear. After 3 attempts on eBay I managed to get one bid and sold it for $8. This and other similar experiences made me think the used market is weak except for top quality in the box postwar. I have decided to sell only junk - broken things and clean out the bottom of the closet. Of course now I am adding to the weakness of the market.....

That and you get pennies on the dollar. But that is just the way it is. It really makes you think more carefully when you buy new high-end stuff too!

What I see is such a hit and miss market.  Online some items are going for ridiculously cheaper prices while items that shouldn't be that expensive are going for at or more than list.  I see this with a lot of products I do a regular search on to pulse the market and find those key items I'm missing from a few trains I've been building up over the years.  Even within the same line of products I see huge price swings which I attribute to sellers who don't know the value and only see the price on the box and thing it has to be worth more. 

Locally, at shows I see the same thing to a lesser extent.  I actually sell more used HO and make a profit at a train swap meet off the $5 sales over trying to get half of what I paid for some O items.  This is especially true with postwar and 027 cars.  Just not a lot of interest locally.  The market is flooded.

The true value of something is the price it has actually SOLD for on eBay. Do an advanced search for "sold" items. Drop out the "basket cases". Drop the highest price (probably a bidding war) and the lowest price (probably a under-priced "buy it now"), then "average" the rest. This also gives a idea of how rare an item is (1 or none sold in the past 3 months, or 8?). 

I have amassed 5 different "collections" over the years, and I have sold 3 of them, contemplating selling another.  I have never "made what I paid" when I sell, but I don't really care.  I consider the "loss" rent on the items, a fee for being able to play with them for a while.  This fee works out to being significantly cheaper than most other forms of entertainment.

For the few pieces I am in the market to acquire, I prefer to buy used, and I look for other reasonable folks who, like me, don't try to build a financial empire on the tender foundation of 3 rails.

I always buy new when it comes to Engines, warranty is important with all the electronics. Price is higher but the protection is also there.

Farmer_Bill posted:

If you're buying, prices are too high.

if you're selling, prices are too low.

That's about it in a nutshell.  My primary experience with "the used train market" is strictly as a buyer at train shows and flea markets, and I haven't seen prices changing much in either direction over the past five years or so.

Interesting thread to me. I got into O Gauge by inheriting my granfather's postwar collection of mainly O27 classics, accessories, and track. So I started adding O27 rated items like the NKP junior berk and SF FT passenger set.

Then I caught the TMCC bug from my brother-in-law but fought the urge to go scale.

By staying with traditonal, I've been able to accumulate a nice collection for $20-25 per piece, sometimes less. Gently used TMCC engines go for half their retail prices or less because of the rage with scale.

To fill out my collection, I've probably overpaid a bit on the last few items, but I wanted particular things.

Overall, except for the new LC+ items, the traditional size market seems very soft.

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

Jacobpaul81 posted:

Ray Lombardo posted:

My take on the used market is: (1) that it is weak due to the shift away from collecting and towards operating; and (2) there is often a disconnect between what sellers ask and reality of what people will pay. 

Yep. Exactly. I would add  (3). Depreciation.  Items have a limited shelf life before they begin to depreciate - that's why good-dealers have clearance / close-outs.  When you buy an item from a dealer, thats base. The purchase immediatly devalues the item 10-50% depending on the market. Every day after, it depreciates.  Just because you have an item that is as-sold in-box does not mean it's worth what it was the day it was delivered to a dealer.  

What you're saying is largely true... except for the unpredictable (and hard to explain) draw to certain items like die-cast ES44's, Milwaukee Road S-3's, and black VisionLine Hudsons.  Folks are still willing to pay WELL above MSRP for those jewels.  And not for collectible reasons either.  Folks wanna run them.

David

David,

  I agree in regards to the selling price for die-cast ES44's and S3's on Ebay but if your willing to wait for the rite price those loco's can be bought at a reasonable price.  Just don't wait for those items to show up on Ebay at a fair price..!!!

As the old saying goes "Time is money".  If you want to play with it now, it's going to cost you but if your willing to wait, your more likely to get a deal.

ps, I still run those Pan Am box cars you sold me..!!!

My take on this is always wait untill after christmas.It has always has worked out for me.Large places that have a bunch of left over stock.They have to get rid of it to make room for new stock.I have gotten locomotive half off this way.I have been to train shows and gotten some good deals.The thing to keep in mind most of the venders.Do not want to drag this stuff back home with them.So some are willing to make a deal.It also depends on what your looking for.

The older stuff is just sit there on the various auction sights, the new stuff is moving off the shelf, this is what I am see on flea bay and other auction sites. There are exception to the rule Super O for the last few weeks moving like hot cakes. Personal I like the PW freight cars and I purchase them at what I believe is the right price, other will disagree but it is their right to do so. But I will not touch any of the older engines except for few exceptions. These are the rebuild specials I hoping to get so time soon, for the recorded I have about 4 or 5 of them. I just like the style of them and the newer ones are out of my budget for now. I think Warren Buffet said it the best “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

This thread started roughly one year ago, and the question posed back then is more appropriate now than ever.  In the year that has elapsed, I think it's quite fair to say the market is more saturated now than ever. 

David

I've never been able to sell a used automobile for anywhere close to what I paid for it.  Same thing with appliances, furniture, clothes, lawn equipment, and on and on.   But, I did get to use those items and consume a portion of it's useful life.  If I had kept any of those items new in the box, I would still have lost money.  In the case of technology based items (computers, TVs, cell phones, game systems) I would have lost nearly all of my money even though they were still mint in the box.  Granted there are exceptions in any of those categories; jewelry, antiques  and housing are a few.   But still there are problems with parts availability and being able to find service centers for many of the hardline items.  In many cases they just become trash or donations to a charity.

The toy/model train market suffers from the same trends.  With advances in technology now, many people don't want anything that is not Legacy, PS3, whatever the latest is.  Many postwar items in rare condition trend into the antique/collectors market where their price is better preserved.  What used to be marketable average postwar and MPC/LTI now is available in abundance.  So like it or not, the supply and demand forces will determine the current price, regardless of what it used to sell for or what Gberg books say.

Good luck to anyone who wants to take the chance buying used.  That is OK at a train show where you can hold the engine and run it before laying your money down.  Every week I hear of someone who got screwed on fleabay.   I will not touch any of it.  

Marty Fitzhenry posted:

Good luck to anyone who wants to take the chance buying used.  That is OK at a train show where you can hold the engine and run it before laying your money down.  Every week I hear of someone who got screwed on fleabay.   I will not touch any of it.  

In the Bay just be careful to check the sellers feedback and ask a lot of questions. Ask one where you would expect a negative answer to see how honest the seller is. You are right. You must be careful. 

ebay has allowed access to untappable markets--the owners attic. It was safer in the "old" days but still a great source of unusual and rare items as well as common. I have found that except in the case or extremely rare items, another one will come along. I also stopped using price guides 20 years ago, I got a little digusted with the whole collecting community when I started seeing "investment" grade trains. The trains are worth what they are worth to each individual. Enjoy them, they are a better value than 100-200$ a month for cable for sure.

For O-scale two-rail used equipment, at least, there are a couple of e-Bay sellers who have built excellent reputations over the years by offering only high-quality used models. I make my online purchases from them almost exclusively and have not been disappointed.

Lionel Prewar tin-Plate in the last year seem to be holding in price if not increase. In watching eBay "SOLD" items (not asking price) people are nuts on what they are paying.
Marx is another brand that seems to be selling at a higher price
There also seems to be a trend a sellers are chopping the prewar O and standard and selling them as parts to command a higher price and people are buying?
Do not look at the new Lionel stuff as I only run conventional.
Just have toi be careful and not get caught up in a auction as there is a ton of stuff out there.
Happy Hunting.

If you run "modern trains" built after 1994 when MTH began its own production there is an abundance of new "old" stock that is coming to the market from collectors who never quite got around to building their layout, others who have retired and moved south or west where basements are rare and those who have passed away leaving their spouse and kids to dispose of their trains as best they can. The result: There are bargains galore which compete with the new offerings from Lionel and MTH. A local hobby store has two cases of new trains and 4 cases of new "old" stock or like new trains. For the operator who can survive without whistle steam or smoke from the cylinders its a great time to be in the market.

Marty Fitzhenry posted:

Good luck to anyone who wants to take the chance buying used.  That is OK at a train show where you can hold the engine and run it before laying your money down.  Every week I hear of someone who got screwed on fleabay.   I will not touch any of it.  

I Personally have had as many problems with NEW, as I have had  with anything bought on eBay.

Unfortunately, the amount of running that I get to do is rather limited, so my locomotives have Very Little run time on them, and I have had both my JLC Big Boy, and my Black FEF-3 FAIL, with very few "Miles" on them, an unacceptablel low amount of use before failure, but naturally shortly AFTER, the warranty EXPIRED.

Even more than the Price, the unreliability of the newer electronics has made me quit buying new locomotives. I Have enough, that I have more than I can reasonably run, but there are models that I would like to have, but I am just NOT willing to Gamble on the newer electronics, and I am a REGULAR Lottery player��, and I still won't take THAT Gamble.

eBay has made many "Hard to Find" items, pretty Easy to find. Anyone who is afraid of eBay, is just missing out on a GREAT resource. eBay's buyers protection, makes it a pretty safe way to buy items that may otherwise be difficult to find.

 I Still PREFER to buy from my LTS, and will let Charley, at Whistlestop Trains know what I am looking for, but eBay is ONE of several sources I use, and do so without undue Worry.

 With over 500 purchases on eBay,(Mostly Trains) I have had VERY FEW problems, definitely not enough to keep me from buying there, and no more than any other source.

 I Am Fine with a lot of people being afraid of buying on eBay, it reduces the competing bids, and keeps my winning bids lower.

Doug

Ebay seems to have a lot of stuff but none of them appear to be bargains. About 3 years ago I was somewhat burned when I purchased 5 Santa Fe aluminum passenger cars (Williams) that were almost new. If I can remember rightly I paid a pretty high price ($175) or about $35 each. They had been in mint condition but the seller poorly packed them and when they came the couplers on some of the cars had come off. When I contacted the seller who had a good reputation his response was to use some kind of epoxy weld to fix them myself but he would not consider taking them back. It was buyer beware. I did make the repairs which were easy enough and the cars were quite nice but that is the last time I buy something from Ebay. I think experiences like this hurt the used train market.

John F posted:

Ebay seems to have a lot of stuff but none of them appear to be bargains. About 3 years ago I was somewhat burned when I purchased 5 Santa Fe aluminum passenger cars (Williams) that were almost new. If I can remember rightly I paid a pretty high price ($175) or about $35 each. They had been in mint condition but the seller poorly packed them and when they came the couplers on some of the cars had come off. When I contacted the seller who had a good reputation his response was to use some kind of epoxy weld to fix them myself but he would not consider taking them back. It was buyer beware. I did make the repairs which were easy enough and the cars were quite nice but that is the last time I buy something from Ebay. I think experiences like this hurt the used train market.

You should have opened a case with eBay.  He did not pack them well enough for them to survive shipping.

-Dave

Dave:

You're right but I wasted too much time in going back and forth with the seller and I think I missed some cut off date.

John F

You take what you get.

the secondary market is probably where i am going to stay for a while until i work up a budget for the new stuff but i have to see the product in person to trust the condition

turbgine posted:

If you run "modern trains" built after 1994 when MTH began its own production there is an abundance of new "old" stock that is coming to the market from collectors who never quite got around to building their layout, others who have retired and moved south or west where basements are rare and those who have passed away leaving their spouse and kids to dispose of their trains as best they can. The result: There are bargains galore which compete with the new offerings from Lionel and MTH. A local hobby store has two cases of new trains and 4 cases of new "old" stock or like new trains. For the operator who can survive without whistle steam or smoke from the cylinders its a great time to be in the market.

here lately i have been looking at mpc era and kughn era trains because they fit the  era i am trying to model the 1980s and 90s

Great Opinions, Great Observations, Great Predictions, The Pre War Era, TinPlate Era, Post War Era, Modern Era, and the Gently used train market is simply, in my opinion, the Culprit that GOT us all into this so called Predicament....Yes, this is where our Love of Toy Trains all Began...Yes,  as we get older, Our thoughts of those trains running under Christmas Trees is a Dream, as we saw the train pulling nice freight cars, passenger cars around and around, and to Us, looked Real....What a Dream Come True. Well, That Dream is over,But, NOW The Trains of today not only Look Realistic, Sound Realistic, and most of ALL, OPERATE REALISTIC with our favorite Command Systems.  Therefore, the older trains have gone south in value, the modern Trains with Command are more Desireable... therefore more valuable...Now to answer the QUESTION about Selling our Collection, or Individual pieces, The OGR Forum is the Best....I have seldom if ever got my money back selling my trains. I am in the Hobby for fun and if I capture 3/4 to 1/2 the money paid for a used, or just tested train, I am happy.  Also, I have traded with many folks on this Forum and it's simply lots of Fun... I do think the BTO (Built to Order) from our Manufacturers has hurt the flow of our $$$$. Good luck in Buying, and Better Luck in Selling. It's a Buyers Market...For the record, a collection generally brings 1/3 down to a 1/4 of what it's real worth is. The buyer of the collection has to sell it and it might take years to recapture his investment...WOW, That's simply the Facts....Now lets have fun.....

Older trains especially rare!! Are still in demand!... 

The train market is pretty simple. If your buying it's great. If your selling it sucks. I've learned to stay away from anything that is vintage, rare or used. Buy new or new old stock unless you know the person or business then used is OK.

Well my observation from the Allentown Spring Thaw meet is, there were a lot of guys like me (early 60's and up) on line, the prices were the lowest I have ever seen for post war and recent (10-15 year old items) and the one guy waving a sign that shouted 25% off everything on the table that was already priced at what I considered very low were all clear signs the market is extremely soft.  Unless the faces in the line start to get younger there is going to be a large glut of trains out there with fewer and fewer buyers.  I you were a buyer at Allentown this past weekend would have been the time to score big, if you were a seller, I hope you recovered your cost.