@rdunniii posted:So, if he lists it for $800-900 and 18 months from now he's has less than, say, 250-300 reservations, you'd prefer it just be cancelled? Because that is what is likely to happen with those others and the E60 which is even worse off. Maybe some of the E60 folks are willing to pay $1500+ for less than 100 models but they are not 100% of the less than 100 who have reserved them so far.
It's not how long they lasted, it's when they were mainstream, and most O gauge/scale folks aren't interested in much after about 1960s. Which is why the GP9s did so well and people are passionate about them. Even though every manufacturer on the planet has done them, sometimes multiple runs.
And yes Santa Fe and Milwaukee are popular. But, I don't hear a peep asking about a Milwaukee Atlantic or F7 Hudson from steam fans. But a 500th run of a Dreyfus Hudson,by anybody? oh yeah. The northeast road fans are also a large part of this market and even if they are interested in more modern stuff they are not interested in western stuff. I think Pennsylvania was one of the most popular GP9s. I'd bet FP and F45s would get more reservations in SuzyQ than Milwaukee or Wisconsin Central.
The market surely talks via the reservations any model generates. The older guys want the early generation diesels and obviously there are enough of them to trigger a go on a model. Yes they are not that interested in more recent models - and there appears to not be enough people of Any age to launch runs of recent vintage diesels. Eastern buyers are a much larger population base so they will Always have a better chance of seeing their favorites made. That’s why we are deluged with Penn and NYC. Big roads from the east usually dominate a run and other smaller demographic roads are lucky to get included in the run.
This is just The Market we have.
The other variable is cost. The higher the number of unit that are reserved the better pricing we see. If the number of units are weak, the run can only proceed with a price bump. We can see these differences when we compare the Krauss Maffei with the EA,E1 runs. Big difference in cost as the KM is priced to make money while selling a small number of units to a very select market. The Es have a smaller Union price as more will be made.
The E60, while popular as an Amtrak model, probably is being held back by a geographic focus in a narrow eastern corridor that is electrified. So it’s a smaller subset of a dominant area.
There’s just multiple factors that drive this market !!!! Ages of buyers, population locations, price points per unit - all in a tug of war. ( Steam is another story - perhaps very similar.). Very simply put - show up in enough numbers and it will get done. If not enough show up / it Might get done if Everyone is willing to pay a higher price. If not, it Should Be Dropped. IMO, removing projects not going anywhere Could help redirect dollars to other projects needing a bit of a boost the make that economic threshold to launch a model into production.
Cheers 😜
