I ran across some photos of the derailment taken by local tv station from an aircraft the next day. After looking at these photos was the first time I understood the derailment. Missing from most photos is the rear three cars of the train. They are laying on their side about 500 feet east of the derailed cars shown on the switch. They are still coupled together. The track appears to be up on a embankment about 8 feet above the natural ground. The cars are about 30 feet from the near rail on the south side with their trucks facing away the track. These cars had to role through about 270 degrees to get into this position. Damage to the roofs shows that the cars were sliding through the ballast when they were completely upside down. I am impressed that the couplers held together through this role.
On the track adjacent to these cars, the gauge is spread wide with the north rail pushed nearly to the end of the ties. It appears that one or more of the trucks of the front part of the train were on the ground between the rails at this point. Clearly the point of derailment is still hundreds of feet farther to the east of this point. Looking at the google earth photos of this area shows a farm crossing some distance to the east of this point. These dirt road crossings are always a point of concern.
In what would have been the ditch on the north side of the track, BNSF crews have bladed a smooth work area where they are building track panels. There was probably about 400 feet already constructed when these photos were taken. These is also a large pile of ballast being dumped. It looks like as soon as the NTSB releases the site they are going push the existing track of the embankment and replacement it with panel track. I saw no pictures east of this point, but at 80 mph the damage to the track could extend a long way east of this point.
The derailed cars at the turnout, east end of the siding, looked typical of what is seen when a derailed train is dragged through a facing point switch. In my opinion it says nothing about the probable cause of the derailment. In my experience, if I were guessing at the probable cause, two things jump out. One is that the front of the train was not derailed and the other is the rails were spread. I would be looking for a loose or broken wheel, broken axle, burnt off journal, or a piece of equipment that had fallen from under a car.
