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Reply to "Couldn’t have said it better myself: Amtrak"

@mark s posted:

Ok, Amtrak is a money-losing proposition.

There is some new thinking on national debt vs. GDP.  The thought is that the old ratios, which predicted immenent financial collapses, the collapses never occurred. The current US national debt to annual GDP ratio is 102%, according to the WSJ  Sept 2, 2020. Japan's ratio is 230%, has been for maybe 30 years, and they still have not collapsed.  Much of our debt is held by China, the UK, and Japan, as opposed to the WWII era, when almost all debt was held by US citizens. Guess the thought is that we could welch on our debts, and it wouldn't hurt America. Plus we control our currency and can produce new currency as needed.  Believe all of this falls into "Modern Monetary Theory".  See "US debt at a record high,  but the risk calculus is changing", by Jo Craven McGinty, in todays WSJ.   Other commentators have said "this will work.......until it doesn't" !!      I am only an observer, biting my nails.

The USA has military personnel and bases in 160 countries, of the 195 named countries on earth.  We spend $760B directly  on our military, additional sums for the CIA, which is a closely aligned activity to our military plus we provide military aid to a fair number of countries. It all totals around $1T per year. Perhaps that is an area of expenditure worth scrutinizing. All the while we are building bombs and weapons, waging utterly pointless wars around the world and there are members of our political class and commentariat who are thumping the tub for a military confrontation with China over Taiwan, and Russia over Ukraine........all the while, China is building roads, hospitals, ports and railroads all over the world. The Chinese just opened a 7500 mile railroad to the UK, linking Europe directly to China for trade. We are rapidly heading to the dustbin of history.

Think Amtrak is the least of our problems.

That was true, and China and the Saudis do hold a lot of US debt, but by far the biggest holder of Treasury debt is the social security administration. SS is not a locked box, it isn't a trust fund per se anymore. Back in the early 80's they increased SS contribution rates on businesses and individuals, to create a 'buffer' in the fund for when the boomer generation started retiring, basically taking in a lot more than they needed. What happened was when the government started running large budget deficits in the 80's onward (to give you an idea, in 1980 the budget deficit was like 50 billion), in a couple of years from then it was like 250 B). What happened was the government used excess funds in SS to cover for the deficit (so remember when I said the deficit was 250m? More like 300M, but the 50m or whatever they borrowed from SS masked the deficit), they actually count SS funds they 'borrow' as tax revenue. So every time they took the excess, they left treasury notes as an IOU. The T notes pay interest, which goes to SS, but if that was excess, got siphoned off. It is why SS owns so much debt.

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