Major negative effect. I have about all I want and my storage space is full, which means that I need to clear out some space in order to accommodate anything "new" (new or used) that I buy. So, with prices depressed and nothing moving even at depressed prices, space is not opening up. I currently have nothing on pre-order. I'm adjusting my expectations for what I can get out of what I have for sale, but I will be buying very, very little that is new for the foreseeable future.
Fall is coming and demand should pick up some, but I think the lower prices on the secondary market will be with us for a while. I see a lot of very unrealistic asking prices on the Bay, but the items don't sell. What actually changes hands mostly goes pretty cheap, except for a few very desirable items like Lionel PS-4 flatcars.
The combination of escalating prices for new trains and falling prices for used will not be good news for the manufacturers. Buyers will be price-shocked out of the new market and look to the very attractive prices for used trains.
