Good points New Haven Joe.
If you are a conventional and traditional trains operator, there's no shortage of used stuff on the market. If you want to move up a little bit, then there's LionChief and LionChief Plus, which are basically the same sort of engine with the added sound and control.
In my thinking, the high-end scale operators are the ones hit most by this question. Right now, there's another thread "Engines we will (probably) never see in O scale" which in my reading has turned into another "wish list thread." They want it (in reality), but are they going to be willing to actually commit to BTO and pay the prices required to have the stuff made?
This isn't a criticism, but some operators do want the latest electronic features with ever increasing scale accuracy. But there is a price to be paid for this. These are small production runs to begin with, and nearly all now is being built to order by all manufacturers.
It's early in Lionel's BTO policy, so time will tell how willing dealers will be to continue to order extra units beyond actual customer orders. Right now the big dealers are doing this, but they'll learn very quickly how much of a risk this will be, and will adjust their quantities ordered accordingly. Which will not benefit the folks decide to wait.
I don't know how much Lionel (and the others) can drop prices on high end products that are from either brand new or recent new tooling. Folks may say they aren't going to pay those prices, but if you want the increased scale accuracy and the latest features, what other option is there? Then again, more and more are "saying" that their buying limit has been reached.
Though it isn't talked about much here, I think the rises in prices for the traditional products will help folks to consider buying used, aside from LC and LC+. And unlike the more recent scale products, there is plenty of used traditional product out there at a fraction of even discounted prices for recent new products.
Lionel pretty much owns the majority of the starter set market. This is one area that needs to have prices held to attractive levels to entice newcomers, along with some of the basic add-on's. Many have already mentioned the shrinking customer base. The bonafide train guy might not like the higher prices, but we're already in the choir.
Higher prices on the basic stuff could have the effect of sending would-be customers looking for another hobby, especially those unfamiliar and not acclimated with the general overall costs of the hobby.
