@Madockawando posted:Congratulations to Mike Wolf on his retirement. This hobby would likely have died off 25 years ago if it wasn't for him bringing completion to the market. Having said that, I think the canary is singing in the coal mine and this is the beginning of the end. I also think we should take Mike Wolf at his word that his company is closing for good. if there was a white knight who was going to buy the company and keep it going it would have been announced by now. It isn't happening. There is not a business case for a multimillionaire businessman to jump into the O gauge market. The situation in China, COVID and a rapidly aging and dying off customer base means no business case. MTH may own the tooling in China but good luck to a "new" owner of MTH getting actual control of it. I think DCS users are fortunate that support will continue... for a time but don't count on for more than a year or two.
This will have ripple effects and will become a reinforcing factor to the continuing shrinking of the market. I would keep an eye on those dealers that were on the margin of profitability. We are going to see brick and mortar Hobby Shop owners already suffering the COVID slow down and competitions from ebay throwing in the towel. This will also negatively impact train shows and it will be instructive to see what effect this has on York and the Orange Hall. Less hobby shops and smaller train shows will reduce the public's exposure to O gauge trains, thereby contributing to the market shrinking further.
In the short term no one has to worry about finding trains to buy though. The secondary market is facing a glut of trains which of course keeps prices going ever so certainly down. If you look on ebay, good solid operator quality Postwar trains is starting to be sold in lots, almost by the pound. It has become economically unfeasible to pay for someone to fix your postwar trains. Got a Lionel 646 Hudson that doesn't run that needs a new e-unit and some general work? Go on ebay and buy a 646 that works for the same price that it would have cost to have an "old train guy" fix it for you. In the not to distant future much of it will end up in a dump. Not because it doesn't work but because our heirs don't want it or want to be bothered. Meanwhile any "new" train, Lionel or MTH can be purchased for far less than MSRP. Don't see it on ebay? Don't worry it will show up and will be available for a very attractive price.
Young people are not getting into the hobby at anywhere near the rate that is needed to sustain the hobby, much less grow it. And yes, I know that we all have a young person in our life that we have given trains to but even if that interest in trains sticks, none of them are going to have the funds for $1000 plus locomotives. They won't have the space to run them in their condos or apartments either.
In a way the hobby has been a victim of it's own success. When I was growing up back in the 1970s "Lionel trains" was still seen by parents and kids as must have a must have toy to have while growing up. If you didn't have your uncles trains, your parents picked up some postwar from a garage sale or a hobby shop. Your dad would set it up on a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood and off you went. The prominence of highly detailed and expensive trains that require huge real estate to run has changed that perception. "Lionel trains" (that's what the public still thinks of as O gauge) are no longer seen as a toy to be played with. These are museum quality models for serious adults, kids and their 8 by 4 plywood layout need not apply. Sure kids like to watch them, but not of them are going to buy them and parents don't see them as toys anymore.
My guess is that Lionel is not celebrating the end of MTH either for all of the reasons above. The one that is going to hurt them the most is the continued shrinkage of the number of hobby shops. The same business case dose of reality that hit MTH will come for Lionel too. When the current owners get tired of owning a high end scale model company I expect them to liquidate the company. There isn't a Richard Kughn out there to buy the company and sustain it.
So, enjoy the hobby while it lasts a few more years but make your decisions on the reality that we are at the beginning of the end.
So...Mr. Bolton....what are you doing to support the small businesses in the hobby....? I just checked and I don't see you in our subscriber base. With the doom and gloom in your post above, why don't we all just bite the bullet and give up?
Guys...their are two ways to look at this announcement: You can take the example of what do you think of when you look at a glass with the water at the mid point within the glass. Is it half empty or half full? This hobby is going to survive and so will certain aspects of MTH. There have been relatively new players that have appeared over the years...most recently think: MENARDS.
What we are seeing and have been seeing for quite a few years is our hobby evolve and those that can't or don't evolve will not survive. As I wrote several months ago, we at OGR are seeing the forum membership grow from about 100-150 applications per month to 500-750 on average over the last few years. We have seen the average page views increase by almost 2 million per month over a few years ago. Over the past couple of years, our subscription base has been fairly steady...not the growth that we would like...but for those of you that don't support the few publications in this hobby, you are also not supporting the small businesses that are trying to sell their product in order to stay in business....especially since our demographic seems to prefer holding a print magazine while they read about their favorite hobby. So....some of this doom and gloom about our hobby may be self inflicted. Regardless....we have seen companies come and go throughout the years in the model railroading hobby....in all scales....and the hobby is still here and will be here long after MOST of us have "retired" permanently. I suggest that you support those businesses that are offering product...and....a shameless plug (again).... a one year subscription costs less than one boxcar no matter what publication.
By the way....I am looking at that glass of water and it is still half full....
