laming posted:Roundhouse Bill posted:No, the market is NOT trending to scale C Sam."
In the case of Lionel, I feel that is a terminal business model. (In the case of MTH, they already have built-in "scale" capability via their SHS purchase, for ALL of SHS products were "scale" oriented.)
Case in point:
Take a look at the avatars of those that frequent this S scale forum. With rare exception(s), baby boomers are the significant majority. Those here of the AF persuasion typically "connect" with AF on account of childhood/youthful connections. Fact: As a whole, AF fan or not, we're "aging-out". That is, frankly speaking, at a specific, yet undetermined time, our tickets are getting punched, and we're ending our stint on this planet and passing on.
In the case of AF, the enthusiasts are "aging out" in far greater numbers than new entrants that are coming into the AF side of S scale. Over the coming years there will be many, many large collections of AF-type S scale that will be hitting the market place because of attrition. There won't be large numbers of enthusiasts vying to acquire pieces from those collections, for very few people are entering the AF side of S scale to replace those leaving.
To me, that is a terminal business model for Lionel to pursue: Catering to a demographic that is aging-out and will be VERY much reduced within the coming (not so short) years.
So, Lionel will either milk the AF sugar titty until it runs dry and then they're done with S... or they will start figuring out ways to tap into the younger HO modelers that want larger trains without the size of O/G scales, and, as we all know, S is that size.
Frankly, I don't think Lionel is all that interested in the longevity of S, or they just fail to grasp the facts.
Simply put: Without a huge infusion of new AF-type enthusiasts, AF is not the long term future for S scale.
I don't mean to be depressing, it just seems to me that SOMETHING needs to be a wake up call to Lionel (in particular) to seriously reconsider their current business model IF they want to continue within the S scale segment of the hobby on the long term.
Also, from what I'm reading (and what I see on other forums), HO is still experiencing some growth. And, there are far more "younger" (i.e. age 30's - 50's) people within it than is found in either O or S. Growth wise, HO and N are doing all right... it's the larger scales that are contracting.
Amen...
If we pull our heads up out of the world of S gauge toy trains and look at the rest of the model railroading world it is clear to see that 'scale' models are what sells.
Let's take one verified example:
Scaletrains.com recently made a UP Turbine in HO scale. Their whole business model is built on building the most accurate, detailed models possible. Their first shipment of turbines totaled more than 10,000 lbs. of HO turbines. All but one palate full were pre-sold. Here is the video:
IMHO, There is only one way S survives through the next decade. It MUST draw in people from other scales because S has the perfect size. The only way that will happen is if there are scale models to entice people to switch scales.
If you just want to keep selling toys to a declining market that's fine but at some point it won't be worth it. I'm not even saying that they shouldn't make AF products. Knock yourself out. But for those of us that 1. Are 30-50 2. Spend a good deal of money every year 3. Are only interested in scale trains 4. Love the size of S - How about making something for us too? It isn't a bad business model... We spend more on average and we'll be buying for a longer period (on average).
I'll stop beating the dead horse now. If MTH or Lionel builds a scale product, I'll buy. If they don't I won't. That's really the only vote I have at the end of the day.
