I tend to agree that the idea that postwar prices are going crazy based on an auction result is like using a single point to figure out a trend (I had a crazy mathematician try to convince me that is possible using all kinds of theory that went right over my head). It is likely what drove those prices is scarcity of some sort, given the nature of boxes maybe there just aren't too many of those, or the guy had the set and wanted the box. I have seen crazy (to me) stuff on ebay, too, where someone wanted something and was willing to pay top dollar for it.
There are also people out there who remember 30+ years ago and think Lionel is highly collectible so will go crazy with it. What I see with postwar is that unless it is absolutely mint and rare, you just aren't going to get the big prices for it from what I have seen. Operators aren't go to pay big prices, they generally are looking for things they like and want to run, not whether the brake wheel was put on backwards or something, and to an operator I would guess being pristine doesn't matter. Again, if you have something rare, like one of the "automatic train control' sets that allowed for two engines on the same track , prices could be there as a real collectors item.
I ran into a 'gentleman' (I am being kind) at the last train show I went to and he was complaining how his collection just wasn't worth what it once was, that it was unfair he invested so much, etc when he saw what prices were like. The problem is obvious, he didn't think about the laws of collecting, like 1)sometimes it is just a fad 2)long term collectability usually revolves around condition and 3)if you are collecting to make money, good luck, you'll need it.
