This issue has been discussed often on this forum. Although I am not certain ( especially of the time line), I believe that the prices of especially PW Lionel/ American Flyer will decline as more such trains become available as the last of the true collectors (like myself )decline in numbers. Many discussions on this forum comment on the fact that many collectors look for their boyhood toys-I agree-and the number of such collectors for 1940-early 1960s "Lionels" is rapidly declining. Look at the recent "holy grail" discussions- often the only PW item identified is the 773 Hudson-as a PW collector I am amazed that items like the red-lettered WP or the solid shield Rutland ( 6464 boxcars) or the glossy JC FM are not mentioned by even a few forum members.
I am less certain about the newer trains. Clearly with the likes of K Line, Weaver and now MTH closing their doors-some of their products will become less available. What concerns me is the "electronics"-and how some folks look at these trains as they do computers (out with the old, in with the new)-so those engines, for example, with PS1/2 are less desirable that the latest ones. The cost of having these older electronics repaired is substantial. I dont know the effect of all this on their future value-clearly right now, some very nice PS1s are available at very reasonable prices. Some prior MTH, Weaver, KLines have increased in cost-whether this will continue is IMHO "to-be-determined".
What I am certain of and which has been said thousands of times,is that we should collect what we like, what makes us younger, what makes us happy, etc. etc. In these uncertain times-that to me remains the best and most certain advice.
