@brianel_k-lineguy posted:Let's be clear. It is the scale side of the hobby that is the segment.
This 3-rail hobby wouldn't exist today as we know it were it not for Lionel. And the VAST majority of the trains, that many of us have fond memories of, were not precise scale. Production runs of these products were in the tens of thousands. In one year alone, Lionel made almost 200,000 027 operating milk cars. Though precise production run numbers are hard to come by, even during the MPC years of Lionel, most cars were made in the multiple thousands, not in the few hundred that many of today's scale items are made in.
In other recent years, both Richard Kughn and Dick Maddox both said that the 027 4-4-2 steam engine "Flyer" starter sets outsold all the other starter sets combined. Which outside of track, is another way of saying it was the best selling item in the catalog. Jerry Calabrese said the non-scale Polar Express set became the best selling set in the entire history of Lionel. Even today, Lionel has said it is the starter set sales that keeps Lionel in business.
Both Howard Hitchcock of Lionel and Andy Edleman of MTH have both said the emphasis on the scale products today is not in production run numbers, but in variety of products. So while the front of the Lionel catalog has page after page of scale products - nearly all limited production, built to order - the few pages of LionChief Plus locomotives probably outsell the entire scale product production. 2,000 units is a limited production starter set run. 2,000 units of a scale product is an out-of-the-ballpark home run and is also unusual. We've seen examples of scale products that were cancelled because they failed to get orders for even 25 units.
BTW, the number I've heard quoted from other manufactures, of the minimum production run out of China (not paint scheme, but overall production run) is 300. That could vary between Chinese factory vendors, but that seems to be the commonly spoken of number - just to keep some semblance of reality about the scale products are taking over.
So while much of the topic of conversation on this forum seems to be on the scale side of the product spectrum, it is not an accurate reflection of the overall market. And while personally, I'm not really wild about all of the current fantasy, brand item train sets and traditional rolling stock items, there are decades worth of large production runs, and so there are many products on the secondary market, and at far less money.
I always laugh when I read the scale guys whine about prices (which BTW, need to be a whole lot higher) ... They fail to consider that the prices on the traditonal items are usually just a few dollars behind the scale ones. When you're talking nearly $100.00 for a single box car, that could just as easily be a traditional version over a scale one.
And I personally agree with Rich Melvin about the semi-scale term. Just call it Lionel. That's what it is. A Lionel Alco is the short 027 Alco FA. That's what it is! A Lionel box car is a 6464 style box car!! A PS-1 box car might be made by Lionel, but it's NOT a Lionel box car... it's just a highly detailed, accurately proportioned replica. That 6464 type is a LIONEL!
I'm not knocking the scale market or products. But these current scale products wouldn't even exist were it not for the products Lionel has made over the decades that has kept them in business. And to this very date as Ryan Kunkle has said. This semi-scale term I think came about to differentiate the newer scale products from the others. But that still doesn't change reality: Sheer numbers speak of that quite clearly. So the "segment" of the hobby, is the scale product side.
So you know, I'm on your side in the 3RO, decidedly and forever committed to O27/non/semi/Lionel/Traditional scale. I have enough for the next 20-30 years on this planet, and while I'll likely buy something new each year to scratch my itch, especially if I can replace at TMCC 1.0 engine with an LC+2 equivalent, my major accumulating years are about done.
You're right, our group was the basis on which 1:48 scale was created and now thrives. I just think it's possible to conclude (fear?) a squeeze on us in the middle judging by recent catalogs and the folding of a few like Industrial Rail, and the POTENTIAL loss of Rail King, that's all.
Not panicking or even complaining. Our Lionel scale has so much available on the secondary market now in modern, MPC, and PW with even more coming with estate sales that I have little worry about obtaining more rolling stock. Other than sprung trucks, how much have our scale's box cars, gondolas, hoppers, tankers, and cabeese really changed in 65 years? Not that much, methinks. Sure, I love the RK O27 passenger cars and would never buy another set with silhouette passengers, but I have more than enough RK passenger car sets.
There was a great thread recently about mixing and matching PW, MPC, and modern era gear.....we can do that without batting an eye in Lionel scale.
