Their assertion that they expect to see a 10% membership decline due to the rise in membership fee is just too slick & self serving for words. To my knowledge there has been no survey taken as to why members are leaving and no announcement for such if in fact a further acceleration in membership loss does ensue.
No survey is really need to provide a fair and reasonable estimate. Some members will leave because an additional $15 a year affronts them (for whatever reason). More than that disgruntled number will depart through the natural attrition that is impacting every segment of this hobby, including advanced age and health concerns, death, change in lifestyle/downsizing, and, yes, perhaps some whose fixed income simply forces them to limit some discretionary expenses.
Those born in the World War II and immediate postwar periods will know and understand exactly what I am referring to. Younger folks may not recognize, understand, or even accept what is happening, but they will nevertheless eventually see the impact.
That, as I've said so often before, is NOT a prediction of gloom and doom for the hobby. It's just a recognition of an inevitable change that must be accommodated by the TCA and, of course, by those who produce things for the hobby and those who consume those things. This hobby has a long life ahead of it. It just will be a bit different than it was in the period between, say, the late 1980s through the first decade of the current century.
