My predictions:
MTH sales of Tinplate dropped off sharply over the last few years he had the Lionel Corporation trademark. Before the closing announcement, Mike himself told me that if they ever made any more tinplate it would be limited and driven purely by demand .At that time one of his officers said 'nothing for at least 5 years.'
But there has been a mountain of trains built by Mike since Williams started to make the 381E, 408E, 9E and passenger cars. Mike bought out that tooling when he was still a teenager, so some of this stuff has been in production continuously since the late 1970's. I suspect that there are more MTH/Lionel Classics trains out there than surviving prewar examples of the same trains.
Mike gets the credit for having the zeal to eventually produce almost every classic era Lionel standard gauge piece and most of the Ives/AF and some Dorfan items after about 1925, plus all those accessories.
At the last York meet I attended, the average age of the participants was about 70 (and that was a year ago). So although there is no new production (and don't expect Lionel to ever do standard gauge again), there is a LOT of trains out there that will hit the market over the next 10 years. For every 2 seniors departing the hobby, I see maybe 1 replacing them, so lots of trains, less buyers, lots of stuff coming back on the market, and most of it still in boxes.
There is an auction now almost every week (and through the summer too), with at least some tinplate and standard gauge in it.
With the end of MTH production, I believe there short term price increases, but I expect that in a couple of years, there will be more with less buyers. Precious few of these items will have 'lionel type' collector value and may appreciate a little, but for those of use still buying, it will be a great time to pick up trains at fabulous prices.
I could be wrong, but this trend started before MTH ended the 'Lionel Corporation' deal.
Jim Waterman
