I'm not convinced that reproductions have effected the middle range value of original trains all that much. I think the biggest factor in the lower prices for operator grade trains is that of the internet. In the old days, you only saw what came to a train show. These days, anyone who finds a train puts it on the internet which has caused there to be more available than people once imagined. Case in point, the Lionel 219 crane. Years ago, these were the car to have. You would need to fork over a few hundred dollars to get a decent one. In fact you can look in some older price guides and see the rarity of these cars being quite high. Today, you can buy a decent runner for around $80. Is that because of the reproductions? I think not, it is more the fact that there are a lot more of them out there than our forefathers thought.
On the reproduction market, the appeal for these is that they are bright and shiny. Plus you don't need to feel bad about operating it. If you look at the values of the reproductions, they are in worse shape than the originals by far. You can easily buy a repro piece just a few years after its release for less than 50% of its original cost.
These are just my observations of the market over the last bunch of years. Everyone has their own opinions of why they would want an original or reproduction. Whatever the case, don't buy a train you don't like and most importantly, don't buy a train for monetary reasons.... it's never a good thing.
ARNO
