I'm also very new to the hobby. (On October 7, 2016 my 11-year-old inadvertently started an earthquake by saying the words "I like trains. Can we get a model train?" The evil gleam in semi-retired Dad's eyes has been burning ever brighter since that fateful day. We couldn't afford a train set when I was a kid so Boy Howdy I'm making up for lost time).
I've been reading this thread and also the ongoing "What to expect from the Spring York Meet" thread with much interest. Since another new guy just took heat here for possibly uninformed opinions I figured why not throw a few more out there.
The question of what stuff is worth at the resale level is interesting to me. "It's worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it" is the gold standard. But believe me the whole "value" question is daunting for the newcomer.
Why should that be, you ask? So a hypothetical newbie like me goes to York for the first time, because he thinks buying pre-owned is the best way to get started/build up his new railroad. He sees miles of aisles containing lots of shiny things. Many look very similar to one another (but we know better). Collectors push past some stuff and then haggle on choice items that differ only to the knowledgable eye. Our prototypical newbie might overpay on some stuff, or insult a veteran seller by asking for a discount on an already low price. Again, why is this situation so challenging for a newcomer?
Some fun with numbers, featuring lots of assumptions stacked one on the other. My hope is that unless there are huge inaccuracies readers not sniper each idea but try to see the overall point, if you agree there is one.
My 2017 Greenburg's Lionel price list has conservatively 16,000 separate items cataloged. Let's assume that Lionel represents 70% of the entire market of available train-related items. That leads me to assume we have a massive bucket of potential pre-owned inventory containing 22,000 unique items (pre-war, post-war, Modern, accessories, everything) conceivably for sale.
Let's further assume that at a huge show like York as much as 20% of that huge bucket of stuff is represented as being for sale. That's 4,400 individual items.
Let's then assume that the really savvy York visitor has a good idea of several different values for each one: Price of pre-owned Mint/excellent in box, Price of Very good, Price of Used/beat/for parts, Original list price, Train Show price back in the 80's when everything was nice, cost to repair, etc.
You're probably way ahead of me on where we're going on all this, but when these numbers are combined you could say the smart buyer at York should have 12,000 to 18,000 price values in his/her head to buy smart and not step on too many seller's toes. Another point that comes to mind is amazement that most of the folks on this forum carry all that knowledge around in their heads without even thinking about it.
But that makes it tough sometimes for newcomers. Which in turn reinforces a buyer's market and dependence on online buying, since this depth of experience and knowledge is concentrated in a niche of folks that (if not now shrinking) is barely holding its own, let along growing.
What do I conclude from these excellent forum threads and my perhaps confused perceptions? Not much. Mostly that this is a hobby, not an investment. Buy to enjoy and plan to use up whatever you buy without a huge regard for getting the money back at the end. Have as much fun as possible, meet great people, and most of all don't sweat the small stuff (and it's all small stuff).
Chris
