Greenburg's Guide for Flyonel Needed

Roundhouse Bill posted:

I was just looking at my bookshelf with every one of the American Flyer big book guides Greenburg ever printed.  It made me think that with all the Flyonel Lionel has produced since 1979 there needs to be a big book Greenburg's Guide for what Flyonel Lionel has produced.  Hasn't Greenburg done a big book on modern Lionel?  Maybe a big book including AM and SH in it to would be a large enough market?

The descriptions in a big book would be real helpful as there is non in a pocket price guide.

What do you guys think? 

Bill,

I think Bob Bubeck's guide has quite a bit of Flyonel listed.  It goes to 2011, so keeping it up to date would entail a new printing on a yearly basis.  I know that Bob is a member of this forum.  He may have a few copies left.

Over the years I have found the Greenberg price guides useless. How it it possible for one man to appraise model trains unless he attends every train event, show, meet and auction nationwide and then prices out each of the1000's of items in every condition. Its physically impossible. . IMO the prices shown in those books are way way too high. I've always purchased for far less.

Dennis, The price guides are the last thing I would waste my money on.  My opinion is that it is a money maker for Kalmbach books, and not for Greenberg himself.  With the internet, leveling the playing field, all you need to do is check previous sales from auction sites, & eBay to realize values.  Bruce Greenberg sold the rights to his name at the “Greenberg Train Shows”, and hasn’t been to one event of such name in years.

I would be interested in a book not from a price guide perspective but just from an information perspective.  A book that had actual pictures of what Lionel has produced on Flyer over the years would be nice.  I would want pics of the actual item, not the catalog rendering and other the item in its box like most stuff on eBay. 

Guys, I am not referring to an annual price guide.  I mean the big Greenburg Guides that had photos and descriptions.  Lord knows the now semiannual price guides are a guess in real value. I think we needs a guide with actual pictures and descriptions of the Flyonel that has been made. 

I agree with RH Bill. Many times I see stuff and have know idea when it was made or what catalog it was in. Even if I'm not looking to buy something it is fun to look stuff up. 

As far as I am concerned all the values in the Greenberg pocket books are false and made up just to sell to collectors.

My reason for this is that several years ago I contacted Greenberg to ask if they would include transformers that were made for the overseas market running on 220V. 

They did include them and they also put a value on them which mirrored the same prices that domestic transformers fetched. The models are 4B-EX, 8B-EX and 18B-EX. Now you have to remember that Greenberg states at the beginning of the guide that all valuations are based on prices and sales at shows etc.  I have never seen any export transformers for sale in the US but according to Greenberg they keep seeing them sold year after year.

if anyone has 18B-EX transformers for sale l will gladly buy them from you for the Greenberg prices.

Mark, You would not need Lionel or anybody else's permission to make photos of their products to put in a book.  Look at all the Greenburg books and Doyal's book. All they did was credit Lionel as owning the the trademarks to American Flyer and Lionel.  

Doyal got all his photos from Stout Auctions for the American Flyer book.  Greenburg's photos were of individual's trains and the owners were credited by photo and description.  I think you would only need a maker's permission if you were using their actual photos.  

A pictorial guide of Modern Era Lionel-produced Flyer would be a very welcome addition to the Flyer community. A book with color reproduction, of necessity, would be relatively pricey because the expected sales would dictate a small print run. It would be a labor love because any remuneration would not match the time required to produce the guide/book. Omitting pricing is theoretically appealing and would make the job easier, but is worthwhile to remember that many sales of guides to individuals are driven, deep down, by the inclusion of prices (i.e., “Follow the money!”).

I believe that truly informative and accurate books should be individually devoted to AM, SHS, AF, and so forth. True, the Doyle book is very useful because of the color pictures, but Dave attempted to include all of Flyer up to 1966. As a consequence, the 5-digit Gilbert S, prewar, and HO sections have numerous errors, omissions, questionable pricing, etc. Focus of scope is important for accuracy, if nothing else.

A few other thoughts to share:

1. Internet auction sites are a source of pricing, but hardly the only source. The cost of doing business, bidding wars, and difficulty in the determination of true condition distort the range of items offered and the pricing picture. Also, many items of collecting importance seldom show up on those sites. For example, there has been a dearth of nice AF boxed sets on ‘you know what’ lately.
2. Pricing in pocket guides can be relatively valid if a reasonably wide range of inputs are gathered from knowledgeable individuals, geographic regions, large train meets and shows, physical auctions, etc. York is helpful, but not absolute in this regard. Legitimate pricing exercises take a fair amount of time and work and, therefore, should not be attempted too often. Waiting a at least a half decade between editions permits one to more easily determine trends, do things more thoroughly, and avoid the exercise of taking practically the same guide and slapping a new cover on it.
3. Methodology on treating pricing input matters. Statistically, some methods get you into the ballpark while others result in ‘sticky’ pricing (i.e., too slow to go up and too slow to go down).

For the case of the guide I can speak for, the TM AF S Gauge Guides have usually included both Lionel and Gilbert S, some pictures, descriptions of each train item, estimates of scarcity, important variations, complete set listings and contents, the most extensive listing of collectible Gilbert paper anywhere (with the help of Andy Jugle), and pricing trends as well as prices. The first edition (2000) was done in collaboration with Dave Garrigues so the starting point was pretty darn accurate. This was done in an affordable, compact, and hopefully useful book. As for overly high ‘collector’ pricing, there are many downward trend arrows in the 2012 edition compared to the prices in the 2004 edition. We reported the bad news.

Happy reading!

Bob

Roundhouse Bill posted:

<snip>

Doyal (sp) got all his photos from Stout Auctions for the American Flyer book.  

Not quite. Dave Doyle also obtained numerous pictures taken by collectors. Among many others, me. 

Bob

poniaj posted:

Roundhouse Bill posted:

I was just looking at my bookshelf with every one of the American Flyer big book guides Greenburg ever printed.  It made me think that with all the Flyonel Lionel has produced since 1979 there needs to be a big book Greenburg's Guide for what Flyonel Lionel has produced.  Hasn't Greenburg done a big book on modern Lionel?  Maybe a big book including AM and SH in it to would be a large enough market?

The descriptions in a big book would be real helpful as there is non in a pocket price guide.

What do you guys think? 

Bill,

I think Bob Bubeck's guide has quite a bit of Flyonel listed.  It goes to 2011, so keeping it up to date would entail a new printing on a yearly basis.  I know that Bob is a member of this forum.  He may have a few copies left.

No problem. Copies are readily available via Amazon and the TM web site. Thanks, Jerry, for the "product placement"! 

Bob

I too would welcome a new book with color photos of Lionel Flyer production as well as AM, SHS and MTH if possible. My suggestion would be to include only the MSRP for pricing. A rarity rating would also be desirable if practical to include.