Amtrak wreck on 9/25/21

Sad news

Empire Builder in Montana. AP story on it:

https://apnews.com/article/lif...68ca68b455eb23b49cef

David

The latest, three killed.  God take their souls.

I used Google Maps to check out 48.558390, -110.816270, which seems to match the signal and background images from the news reports. It looks to me, that the switch was thrown under the third passenger car as the train passed.

Apparently some riders noted a 'rough ride' in one of the mid-rear cars, which might indicate a damaged wheel that derailed at the East Buelow switch. If you're familiar with the Builder, it was the rear 'Portland' part of the train that derailed and tipped, apparently the engines and the main 'Seattle' part remained on the rails (or at least were upright).

There a You Tube interview available with one of the passengers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KaWvo6BGxw&t=13s

@RogerofSandwich posted:

It looks to me, that the switch was thrown under the third passenger car as the train passed.

How did that happen?  Do you know a lot about railroad signals and dual-controlled switches, and how they are interlocked de-energized, and timed out, whenever the circuit is occupied?  Please enlighten us.

@wjstix posted:

Apparently some riders noted a 'rough ride' in one of the mid-rear cars, which might indicate a damaged wheel that derailed at the East Buelow switch. If you're familiar with the Builder, it was the rear 'Portland' part of the train that derailed and tipped, apparently the engines and the main 'Seattle' part remained on the rails (or at least were upright).

Article in today's New York Times mentioned the "rough ride," suggesting something broke internally. Also, hot temperatures might have softened a rail.

Guess we'll have to wait until all the investigations are over for a definitive anser.

@Andrew-Porter posted:

Article in today's New York Times mentioned the "rough ride," suggesting something broke internally. Also, hot temperatures might have softened a rail.

In all my years of working in the railroad industry, I have NEVER heard of "hot temperatures might of softened the rail"!!!!!

Guess we'll have to wait until all the investigations are over for a definitive anser.

Hot temperatures may have softened the rail?  Good God. Journalism is definitely dead.

That is one of the dumbest and most ignorant things I have ever seen reported. Are they really that stupid? Unfortunately, the answer is, "Yes."

Is it any wonder that no one trusts the media these days?

So sad that this claimed the lives of three people. Prayers to the families.

@Rich Melvin posted:

Hot temperatures may have softened the rail?  Good God. Journalism is definitely dead.

That is one of the dumbest and most ignorant things I have ever seen reported. Are they really that stupid? Unfortunately, the answer is, "Yes."

Is it any wonder that no one trusts the media these days?

Well, as an award-winning former news journalist and publisher, I trust the media.

No sure if you noticed, but there's this weird thing called "climate change" which fosters extreme temperatures, extreme rainfall, etc.

From the New York Times article:

@Andrew-Porter posted:

Saturday’s heat could also be to blame, said Russell Quimby, a retired accident investigator for the National Transportation Safety Board. Mr. Quimby said he suspects the train may have hit a section of the track that had buckled from overheating.

"'When that happens, the train can’t negotiate that tight little change in the curvature of the track, and it will run up over the rail and derail and fall over the side like you see in the pictures,” he said.

"Around the time of the accident, the temperature in Joplin peaked at 84 degrees. Railroad tracks are usually about 20 to 30 degrees hotter than the outside temperature, Mr. Quimby said, which “could be well above” what the tracks were designed to withstand."

@Strap Hanger posted:

That seems really strange. 84 degrees is considered cool down here in South Florida, where mid 90's and higher for the past three summer months is the norm (we call it "weather" as opposed to "climate change"). None of our Amtrak, commuter, freight,or other engines seem to be derailing. Unless manufacturing techniques and materials are significantly different (which I doubt), I tend to agree with Rich Melvin and the others. Hopefully, a thorough investigation nails down the cause of this tragedy.

Wonder how all those track thru Arizona survive.  

Well as a current broadcaster who works with "journalists" every day, I concur with Rich.  Journalism... at the New York Times and all who use it as a "primary source", at the so-called "J-Schools", at the network level, and especially at the local level is, and has been dead for a very long time.

84 degree temps and heat kinks have been with the industry since its inception.  This is nothing new.

Jon

@Rich Melvin posted:

Hot temperatures may have softened the rail?  Good God. Journalism is definitely dead.

That is one of the dumbest and most ignorant things I have ever seen reported. Are they really that stupid? Unfortunately, the answer is, "Yes."

Is it any wonder that no one trusts the media these days?

The article quotes a retired investigator for the NTSB as saying that heat-induced buckling could be a factor in the accident.  It says nothing at all about 'softening'.

Reading is definitely dead.

@Andrew-Porter posted:

Well, as an award-winning former news journalist and publisher, I trust the media.

Well, that's your opinion. Certainly NOT mine.

No sure if you noticed, but there's this weird thing called "climate change" which fosters extreme temperatures, extreme rainfall, etc.

Don't know just what "climate change" has to do with "softening the rail". I've been on trains in the desert southwest where the wayside defect detectors read-off ambient temperatures in excess of 110 degrees F, and the rails did NOT "melt". Train speeds are reduced as the temps increase.

From the New York Times article:

"If the turbulence was more sudden, Saturday’s heat could also be to blame, said Russell Quimby, a retired accident investigator for the National Transportation Safety Board. Mr. Quimby said he suspects the train may have hit a section of the track that had buckled from overheating.

Now there you have it! The high heat (90 to 100 degrees" can, and does, cause the track structure to buckle, as the rails expand. Thus, train speeds are reduced as the heat temps increase.

"'When that happens, the train can’t negotiate that tight little change in the curvature of the track, and it will run up over the rail and derail and fall over the side like you see in the pictures,” he said.

"Around the time of the accident, the temperature in Joplin peaked at 84 degrees. Railroad tracks are usually about 20 to 30 degrees hotter than the outside temperature, Mr. Quimby said, which “could be well above” what the tracks were designed to withstand."

Sure sounds like this Mr. Quimby needs to educate himself a LOT more about track structures in VERY hot climates (I don't consider only 84 degrees all that hot, when the track structure in the desert southwest is exposed to air temps over 110 degrees).

@Andrew-Porter posted:

Article in today's New York Times mentioned the "rough ride," suggesting something broke internally. Also, hot temperatures might have softened a rail.

Guess we'll have to wait until all the investigations are over for a definitive anser.

Back in 1995 when Chicago had multiple daily temperatures pushing past 100 degrees (and in the 80's at night,) I didn't see the rails on the Metra commuter line outside where I worked turning into Silly-Putty or looking like a Dali painting...

Rail steel is rolled at 1250 degrees centigrade. (2282 degrees Fahrenheit.)  Temperatures of 80's, 90's, 100's is nothing to rail.  Now rail expansion, bowing and sun kinks of rail is a different matter...

Rusty

@Andrew-Porter posted:

Well, as an award-winning former news journalist and publisher, I trust the media.

No sure if you noticed, but there's this weird thing called "climate change" which fosters extreme temperatures, extreme rainfall, etc.

From the New York Times article:

"If the turbulence was more sudden, Saturday’s heat could also be to blame, said Russell Quimby, a retired accident investigator for the National Transportation Safety Board. Mr. Quimby said he suspects the train may have hit a section of the track that had buckled from overheating.

"'When that happens, the train can’t negotiate that tight little change in the curvature of the track, and it will run up over the rail and derail and fall over the side like you see in the pictures,” he said.

"Around the time of the accident, the temperature in Joplin peaked at 84 degrees. Railroad tracks are usually about 20 to 30 degrees hotter than the outside temperature, Mr. Quimby said, which “could be well above” what the tracks were designed to withstand."

I'm not as knowledgeable as Rich Melvin or Hot Water (Jack) about the engineering details of railroad equipment or ROW. 

OTOH, being an engineer by education, training, and 34 years as such in the automotive industry, this sort of knee-jerk summary journalism naive speculation leaves me with only one response...

.

.

.

I'll accept that 'journalism' may not be clinically dead....yet.  But unvetted publishing of this sort of BS shows it's festering....badly. 

Sadly, you'll never see a retraction/correction published.   It's truth...the 'gray lady' said so.

And, like everything else, traceable to "Climate Change".

As so it goes...ad nauseam.

Okay, before we attempt to solve the cause(es?) of this derailment from the comfort of home, let's think about how many there could be.  These are some of the causes of past derailments of passenger trains:

• Broken rail
• Broken frog
• Broken or missing joint bar and/or bolts
• End-battered rail or low joint
• Missing spikes, tie plates, or broken ties unable to retain spikes
• Insufficient or washed-out ballast
• Improper cross level
• Excessive speed
• Slid flat wheel building up a false flange
• Something falling off of this train or a preceding train
• Failure of a truck component
• Roller bearing retainer strap missing
• Track misalignment due to heat or insufficient maintenance, or excessive speed through turnout by a preceding train.
• Bent, broken, or improperly adjusted point rail of turnout
• Broken connecting rod on turnout
• Broken wheel or wheel flange
• Obstruction on track, especially at turnout
• Improperly installed, maintained, or repaired signal or dual controlled switch circuitry or mechanisms.

For us to solve the cause of derailment, one of us is going to have to head out to the Montana prairie and investigate the track, equipment, and signal system, and find evidence which will lead to identification of the root cause, as well as any contributing causes.

It's an awful derailment, and three lives have been cut short.  Some of the injured may never fully recover.  The investigation team will be able, by methodical examination, be able to determine how the derailment occurred, as well as how the likelihood of future incidents of a similar nature occurring can be prevented.

But we do all want to know, and soon, don't we?

@Rich Melvin posted:

Hot temperatures may have softened the rail?  Good God. Journalism is definitely dead.

That is one of the dumbest and most ignorant things I have ever seen reported. Are they really that stupid? Unfortunately, the answer is, "Yes."

Is it any wonder that no one trusts the media these days?

DOI:10.1590/S1517-70762009000300011

It appears that steel softens with increasing temperature from the metallurgy literature. Here is SAE 4340 Steel annealed at temperatures 860 C to 1160 C and all soften as temperature is increased from 0 C (32 F) to 200 C (392 F).

Here is 1084 steel

Which also exhibits the softening of the steel as temperature increases.

The softening appears to take place from freezing temperatures up to hot summer day temperatures from the data reported in the metallurgy literature. Based upon the the metallurgy literature the NYT written report does not seem to be unreasonable as far as metallurgy is concerned.

@dkdkrd posted:

I'm not as knowledgeable as Rich Melvin or Hot Water (Jack) about the engineering details of railroad equipment or ROW.

OTOH, being an engineer by education, training, and 34 years as such in the automotive industry, this sort of knee-jerk summary journalism naive speculation leaves me with only one response...

I'll accept that 'journalism' may not be clinically dead....yet.  But unvetted publishing of this sort of BS shows it's festering....badly.

Sadly, you'll never see a retraction/correction published.   It's truth...the 'gray lady' said so.

And, like everything else, traceable to "Climate Change".

As so it goes...ad nauseam.

For reals?

A few seconds of search would show you that "this Mr. Quimby" (to quote HW) graduated from West Point with an engineering degree, trained as an Army Ranger, worked for BNSF, and was at the NTSB doing railroad accident investigations for over 20 years.

But hey, the Times should have consulted with some guys who hang out on a toy train board instead - they're the ones who know their stuff!  OMG Journalism is Dead!!!

Number 90,

Very well said.  The devil's in the details, and we have access to none of them currently.

Mike

As a Materials and Powertrain engineer, I disagree 100% with the so called "climate change" cause of the rails softening as noted earlier in this thread.

I don't know what sort of journalist is smarter than any man on earth and God that they can claim everything is "climate change" oriented.    Absolutely the most idiotic claim I've heard in a while.

For those of you who may want to believe this cockamamie claim please read the following:

Wikipedia:

Between 600°C and 650°C, ( 1112°F - 1202°F ) the steel will lose half of its strength, and will pose a risk of failing (depending on the load it bears).

Think about this:  When is the rail subjected to an elevated temperature of 1112°F  for an extended period of time?  Or how a prestressed rail is impacted at 84°F ?

If I were Journalist - I wouldn't open my mouth until I had investigated any wild claims PRIOR to publishing them.

Shame on anyone for being a irresponsible in this role by not reporting the news truthfully.

It seems that any journalist worth his salt would investigate if the rail used in the southern USA were made with a different alloy to better cope with higher temperatures, than rail used in the northern USA. Or at least wondered if there were a difference before stating that 84 degrees is anywhere close to hot. But in my 41 years in the power generation industry I've found that journalist have next to no knowledge of anything related to physics or chemistry.

The words used in the post that I quoted were “rail softening.” That is not the same thing as “rail buckling.”

I can very easily believe that there could have been a sun kink in the rails that caused this derailment. That has happened before on sections of welded rail. However, that is not the same thing as the rail “softening“ causing a derailment. If the rail surface could actually soften in the sun, we would have the derailments all over the country during the summertime.

Journalism is still dead, and I still don’t trust the drive-by “news” media.  As for the previous comment about “climate change” having something to do with this, I must agree with Allegheny. That is absolutely ridiculous.

@WBC posted:

DOI:10.1590/S1517-70762009000300011

It appears that steel softens with increasing temperature from the metallurgy literature. Here is SAE 4340 Steel annealed at temperatures 860 C to 1160 C and all soften as temperature is increased from 0 C (32 F) to 200 C (392 F).

Here is 1084 steel

Which also exhibits the softening of the steel as temperature increases.

The softening appears to take place from freezing temperatures up to hot summer day temperatures from the data reported in the metallurgy literature. Based upon the the metallurgy literature the NYT written report does not seem to be unreasonable as far as metallurgy is concerned.

This is all very true.  But do people understand the temperature ranges being discussed? 

860 C to 1160 C (1580°F to 2120°F)

Steel at these temperatures are glowing red hot and at approx 2300°F temperature that steel is rolled.

It is interesting when people assumed the article said the track was "softened", when the article used the term buckled, I read the article and they said specifically it 'buckled from the heat". Buckling is not softening, it implies the track expanded because of the heat and there was no room for the expansion.

There was more to the quote, and it is important:

The following link has an explanation of how they set the 'neutral temperature' where stress is zero and also talks about the techniques they use to eliminate stress, it is interesting. One thing to me that is telling is there are companies out there that supply ways of keeping rails from stressing and buckling,  if there wasn't a need they wouldn't be in business,

https://www.progressiverailroa...-and-twisting--35444

I do know that metals experiencing the highs and lows that the track in Montana would experience over time does cause metal fatigue, as rail gets older its characteristics will change I suspect. It is possible that the rail involved when newer would handle 84 degree weather just fine, and it simply failed in this case.

One other thing to keep in mind, the northwest experienced record heat this summer, pretty sure Montana did as well (woman my wife follows on You Tube lives in eastern Oregon, they had temperatures like 110 degrees + almost every day for 2 months, it is abnormal). They are in high desert, so the temperature can drop like 50 degrees at night. I seem to recall Montana is like that, too, that it has huge swings, so maybe that was a factor here (note the 'maybe', not claiming expertise). If climate change is causing higher temperatures than normal that last, from this article I suspect this will become more common, because the rail "neutral temperature" was set assuming normal temperatures in the past and it will take time to replace rail if there is a new norm.

On the other hand, it also could be one of the other reasons people listened. If it is track buckling inspectors should be able to see that pretty easily I assume, it will still be in that state or leave an artifact of some sort of it.

Anyone think of looking at the weather data for Joplin MT?  It AMAZING that 84 degrees in September is extreme and due to climate change when the AVERAGE high in July and August is 83 and 82 degrees respectively.  I'll wait for the NTSB report before I believe anything published as to the cause.  Prayers for the lost and their loved ones.

For all the experts, in order for rail to "buckle" or "kink", wouldn't it first have to "soften" at least a little bit somewhere along its surface ?

@Professor Chaos posted:

For reals?

A few seconds of search would show you that "this Mr. Quimby" (to quote HW) graduated from West Point with an engineering degree, trained as an Army Ranger, worked for BNSF, and was at the NTSB doing railroad accident investigations for over 20 years.

But hey, the Times should have consulted with some guys who hang out on a toy train board instead - they're the ones who know their stuff!  OMG Journalism is Dead!!!

I get your point, but you know that Rich and Hot Water run real locomotives, right?  I think Rich runs the 765 if I am not mistaken.  Not just the little ones that run on the three rail track.  So you get a percentage of folks here who are, as you have characterized them, and then a couple of professionals who basically take the view let's see what the evidence shows before we start attributing derailments to climate change.  

It is a shame that even accident investigations get politicized.  What has made our aviation industry the safest in the world is that we don't run around attributing airliner crashes to our pre-existing guesses or views on issues.  Professional examine and study what actually went wrong, and then changes are made to minimize the likelihood of such failures going forward.  Doing that over the history of our commercial aviation industry has made our airlines the safest in the world.  We need to take that rational, less prejudgment approach in more areas to avoid nonsensical arguments.  

Have a good day. Always admired your screen name.  

One little point, it is now late September, not July or August. The average high in Joplin in September is 71, not 84, so that was well above the typical temperature .It could be with that 84 degree temp at night it got down very cold and that contributed.

I also checked the weather in Joplin in July and August 2021, they had a lot of weird temperatures, they had a lot of temperatures in upper 90's and 100, they also had days when it didn't get above the 50's. It is possible that the combination of hot days the prior 2 months, well above normal, combined with some of the colder snaps, helped lead to this, it may not have been the 84 degree temp itself, it might have been the pattern that led to this....again, NHTSA will figure it out, but there had been extreme weather there the prior months.

https://www.accuweather.com/en...july-weather/339174? year=2021, you can also see august here.

@Richie C. posted:

For all the experts, in order for rail to "buckle" or "kink", wouldn't it first have to "soften" at least a little bit somewhere along its surface ?

Absolutely NOT! Surprisingly, CWR (continuous welded rail) bends fairly easily (ever notice those mile long rail trains carrying CWR in racks?).

@Richie C. posted:

For all the experts, in order for rail to "buckle" or "kink", wouldn't it first have to "soften" at least a little bit somewhere along its surface ?

No, that’s not how it works.

Do you really think that a temperature in the 80s, or even 100 F would soften steel? If so, watch out! The doors might fall off your car on a hot summer day.  

@Ray Lombardo posted:

I get your point, but you know that Rich and Hot Water run real locomotives, right?  I think Rich runs the 765 if I am not mistaken.  Not just the little ones that run on the three rail track.  So you get a percentage of folks here who are, as you have characterized them, and then a couple of professionals who basically take the view let's see what the evidence shows before we start attributing derailments to climate change.  

It is a shame that even accident investigations get politicized.  What has made our aviation industry the safest in the world is that we don't run around attributing airliner crashes to our pre-existing guesses or views on issues.  Professional examine and study what actually went wrong, and then changes are made to minimize the likelihood of such failures going forward.  Doing that over the history of our commercial aviation industry has made our airlines the safest in the world.  We need to take that rational, less prejudgment approach in more areas to avoid nonsensical arguments.  

Have a good day. Always admired your screen name.  

Of course, I was being hyperbolic for effect.  But here's how the discussion proceeded:

• Times publishes publishes article quoting respectable expert giving his opinion that heat-induced  buckling was possible cause of derailment
• Forum member misstates article as claiming that 'softening' was cause
• Peanut gallery piles on about how terrible article was for citing softening and climate change, when the article says absolutely nothing about softening, climate change, or even unusual heat conditions
• Therefore, journalism is dead, journalists don't know anything about technology, etc. etc.

At a time when we need more reliable information about what's going on in the world, I think critics ought to actually read the source before confidently proclaiming that it's utter nonsense and proves the unreliability of the media.

@Rich Melvin posted:

No, that’s not how it works.

Do you really think that a temperature in the 80s, or even 100 F would soften steel? If so, watch out! The doors might fall off your car on a hot summer day.  

I never said it would or what I thought - I simply asked a question.

So kindly enlighten us and explain the science and physics behind "how it works", i.e., that rail can "buckle" or "kink" on its own without losing any of its hardness.

@Richie C. posted:

I never said it would or what I thought - I simply asked a question.

So kindly enlighten us and explain the science and physics behind "how it works", i.e., that rail can "buckle" or "kink" without losing any of its hardness.

Technically, the rail does NOT "buckle" or "kink". As the rails expand from the heating, and if the anti-creepers attached to the bottom of the rails, which contact the sides of the ties, fail to contain the expansion from the heating, then the whole track structure may move ever-so slightly out of alignment (maybe only a few inches or a few feet, depending on the roadbed). When a train at speed runs in to/on to that misalignment, derailment generally occurs, and that is why in high heat conditions, train speeds are lowered.

Professor Chaos,

Since I'm a member of the peanut gallery what does that make you then?

Our journalist friend noted that the rail softened.  Blamed it on climate change.  Really?   An insane conclusion.   Thus the reaction to bring him back to reality.   

Whether the article noted it as buckling doesn't matter as the Forum journalist should have known better.  He should have done his homework first - PRIOR to blaming the accident on climate change at a ridiculous temperature of 84°F being the cause!!!!!!!!

The world has gone through several horrific climate changes all on its own without man's intervention in the past.   As we speak, the poles of the planet are moving getting ready to flip.    When it does (1-10,000 years from now) who or what will the media blame it on?  By the way its happened before.  So its normal.

@Professor Chaos posted:

Of course, I was being hyperbolic for effect.  But here's how the discussion proceeded:

• Times publishes publishes article quoting respectable expert giving his opinion that heat-induced  buckling was possible cause of derailment
• Forum member misstates article as claiming that 'softening' was cause
• Peanut gallery piles on about how terrible article was for citing softening and climate change, when the article says absolutely nothing about softening, climate change, or even unusual heat conditions
• Therefore, journalism is dead, journalists don't know anything about technology, etc. etc.

At a time when we need more reliable information about what's going on in the world, I think critics ought to actually read the source before confidently proclaiming that it's utter nonsense and proves the unreliability of the media.

That was my take as well. Among other things, it is proof they didn't read the article itself which could be found online and they do allow some free access because among other things, it didn't mention climate change, he simply said that the heat could of caused the track to buckle and pointed out a similar incident that occurred 30+ years ago. The guy also said these were relatively rare and said that the switch also could of caused this. I also note he simply said possible causes, he didn't say what caused it.

I also will add that while I respect the knowledge of Rich and Hot Water, since they have worked professionally with railroads, some of the poster's dismissed what this guy said out of hand, meanwhile it was this guy's job to investigate rail accidents, he is a professional in that specific field.

Was climate change involved here? No way to know. If in fact the weather is heating up, if high temps than usual become the norm the railroads will have to adjust, the way they adjust between laying tracks in the northeast and laying them in Arizona or the Mojave desert (which is why these things don't routinely happen there, they use rail and techniques from what I read to deal with the temps there).

Model railroaders do run into this btw, garden railroaders have to be careful with rail expansion, and have seen posts with people complaining about flex track kinking because of the room they are laid in not having climate control.

@Professor Chaos posted:

Of course, I was being hyperbolic for effect.  But here's how the discussion proceeded:

• Times publishes publishes article quoting respectable expert giving his opinion that heat-induced  buckling was possible cause of derailment
• Forum member misstates article as claiming that 'softening' was cause
• Peanut gallery piles on about how terrible article was for citing softening and climate change, when the article says absolutely nothing about softening, climate change, or even unusual heat conditions
• Therefore, journalism is dead, journalists don't know anything about technology, etc. etc.

At a time when we need more reliable information about what's going on in the world, I think critics ought to actually read the source before confidently proclaiming that it's utter nonsense and proves the unreliability of the media.

I would fully expect Professor Chaos to be hyperbolic for effect.  Fair points all.

@Hot Water posted:

Technically, the rail does NOT "buckle" or "kink". As the rails expand from the heating, and if the anti-creepers attached to the bottom of the rails, which contact the sides of the ties, fail to contain the expansion from the heating, then the whole track structure may move ever-so slightly out of alignment (maybe only a few inches or a few feet, depending on the roadbed). When a train at speed runs in to/on to that misalignment, derailment generally occurs, and that is why in high heat conditions, train speeds are lowered.

That makes more sense to me than potential explanations from others who have used the terms "buckle" and "kink".

@Richie C. posted:

That makes more sense to me than potential explanations from others who have used the terms "buckle" and "kink".

Well, the Railroader's term for such a condition is indeed "Sun kink", and when witnessed from the cab, there is definitely a noticeable deflection in the track, i.e. both rails. Hitting such a "wow-eeee" at speed is not something one wants to do!

Remember that Amtrak derailment some years ago in the middle of the night, out in Kansas or Oklahoma, when a farm feed truck "got loose" and rolled out of a farmers lot, across the local highway, across the bar-ditch, and ran into/onto the BNSF main track. The Amtrak stated that he saw the "wow-eeee", and applied the brakes in emergency, but at speed the train still "went into the ditch". That track wasn't all that much out of alignment, but still created a heck of a mess. Yes, the police and investigators did find out the exact cause, and one of the guys at the farm admitted that the truck "got away", but he backed it back into the yard, and didn't think any damage was done, in the dark.

@Allegheny posted:

Professor Chaos,

Since I'm a member of the peanut gallery what does that make you then?

Our journalist friend noted that the rail softened.  Blamed it on climate change.  Really?   An insane conclusion.   Thus the reaction to bring him back to reality.   

Whether the article noted it as buckling doesn't matter as the Forum journalist should have known better.  He should have done his homework first - PRIOR to blaming the accident on climate change at a ridiculous temperature of 84°F being the cause!!!!!!!!

I'm just another member of the peanut gallery of course!

Not about to debate climate change, but interestingly technical reports from England discuss an increase in heat-related failures from temperatures in the 27° C range - about 81° F.  Though many of those were signaling issues, not track expansion.  And of course English design is unlikely to anticipate summers as hot as ours.

@Professor Chaos posted:

I'm just another member of the peanut gallery of course!

Not about to debate climate change, but interestingly technical reports from England discuss an increase in heat-related failures from temperatures in the 27° C range - about 81° C.  Though many of those were signaling issues, not track expansion.  And of course English design is unlikely to anticipate summers as hot as ours.

Your last sentence is spot on as the English are not accustomed to elevated temperatures that we have in the States.    Should it rise any higher, they may have to reevaluate what their next steps should be.

I'm glad you didn't take my remarks personally as I didn't know how to phrase it without it sounding terrible.   

By the way as a member of the peanut gallery I'm happy to share the peanuts I have with fellow members.

I run trains on the G&O garden railroad.  In direct sunlight our Atlas O gauge rail and our LGB G gauge rail gets much hotter than the ambient temperature.  In many cases the rail becomes too hot to touch.  The same thing happens to brass and diecast engines running in direct sunlight.  

I suspect that real rail also absorbs energy in direct sunlight and may be much hotter than the ambient temperature.   I am sure that the investigation will look at the rail's actual temperature in addition to the ambient temperature.  

I look forward to reading the investigation report.  NH Joe

@New Haven Joe posted:

I run trains on the G&O garden railroad.  In direct sunlight our Atlas O gauge rail and our LGB G gauge rail gets much hotter than the ambient temperature.  In many cases the rail becomes too hot to touch.  The same thing happens to brass and diecast engines running in direct sunlight.

But does it soften and melt? Plus, just how is this relevant to what happened in Montana?

I suspect that real rail also absorbs energy in direct sunlight and may be much hotter than the ambient temperature.

Yes, but it sure as h#%& doesn't soften or melt!!!

  I am sure that the investigation will look at the rail's actual temperature in addition to the ambient temperature.  

I look forward to reading the investigation report.  NH Joe

3 people are reported killed in 3 crash.

@Allegheny posted:

The world has gone through several horrific climate changes all on its own without man's intervention in the past.   As we speak, the poles of the planet are moving getting ready to flip.    When it does (1-10,000 years from now) who or what will the media blame it on?  By the way its happened before.  So its normal.

The magnetic poles are about ready to reverse as they do every 500,000 years or so, so what is currently magnetic north will become magnetic south and what is currently magnetic south will become magnetic north. The moon stabilizes Earth's rotation so our planet does not tumble as it moves in its orbit, so the physical poles themselves will remain put. It is not known how slow or quick the magnetic pole reversal will take place, but the reversal is quite fast on geologic time scales.

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/are-...ews_science_products

@Number 90 posted:

Okay, before we attempt to solve the cause(es?) of this derailment from the comfort of home, let's think about how many there could be.  These are some of the causes of past derailments of passenger trains:

• Broken rail
• Broken frog
• Broken or missing joint bar and/or bolts
• End-battered rail or low joint
• Missing spikes, tie plates, or broken ties unable to retain spikes
• Insufficient or washed-out ballast
• Improper cross level
• Excessive speed
• Slid flat wheel building up a false flange
• Something falling off of this train or a preceding train
• Failure of a truck component
• Roller bearing retainer strap missing
• Track misalignment due to heat or insufficient maintenance, or excessive speed through turnout by a preceding train.
• Bent, broken, or improperly adjusted point rail of turnout
• Broken connecting rod on turnout
• Broken wheel or wheel flange
• Obstruction on track, especially at turnout
• Improperly installed, maintained, or repaired signal or dual controlled switch circuitry or mechanisms.

Hi Tom:

There is one cause missing from your list.

Criminal Event.

If this is the cause the NTSB, National Transportation Safety Board will turn it over to the. FBI, Federal Bureau of Investigation and DHS, Department of Homeland Security.   

I took this photo at Pontiac Station this past Saturday at 6:47 PM - This was just a few hours after this crash. They’re maybe a connection. Just speculation.

Gary

Another paper for those who are interested.

Journal of Constructional Steel Research
Volume 66, Issue 5, May 2010, Pages 634-647

Ultimate strength reduction factors  for different stainless steel grades from EN 1993-1-2 and Euro Inox/SCI design manual for structural stainless steel.

Thus, from the freezing point of water to about 120 F the tested steels loose about 0.2% of their strength.

Also, the issue of absorbing radiant energy from the Sun was brought up. Yes, steel absorbs both visible and infrared light.

Thus, because steel absorbs both visible and infrared radiation from the sun it will be warmer than surrounding air temperature. https://endurancelasers.com/ab...different-materials/

A sun kink...

@Professor Chaos posted:

Of course, I was being hyperbolic for effect.  But here's how the discussion proceeded:

• Times publishes publishes article quoting respectable expert giving his opinion that heat-induced  buckling was possible cause of derailment
• Forum member misstates article as claiming that 'softening' was cause
• Peanut gallery piles on about how terrible article was for citing softening and climate change, when the article says absolutely nothing about softening, climate change, or even unusual heat conditions
• Therefore, journalism is dead, journalists don't know anything about technology, etc. etc.

At a time when we need more reliable information about what's going on in the world, I think critics ought to actually read the source before confidently proclaiming that it's utter nonsense and proves the unreliability of the media.

It’s too bad Jack’s last post was deleted. Is it that journalism is dead, or do the so called “experts” jump to conclusions without reading or comprehending what they’re driveling about? Get a drink Jack. The above sums it up.

Sam, fellow Peanut Gallery resident

@Sam Jumper posted:

It’s too bad Jack’s last post was deleted. Is it that journalism is dead, or do the so called “experts” jump to conclusions without reading or comprehending what they’re driveling about? Get a drink Jack. The above sums it up.

Sam, fellow Peanut Gallery resident

Don't know what/who you are talking about but, my last post is still there. By the way, I currently HAVE a "drink"!

@Rich Melvin posted:

A sun kink...

This is the type of track condition reportedly being focused on as the cause of this accident. How the kink (as it is known in the industry) was formed has yet to be determined. Some possible factors could be extreme temperatures, improper CWR installation, damage from outside interference such as heavy equipment disturbing the roadbed, or severe slack action from a preceding train, to name a few.

Regards,

C.J.

@Hot Water posted:

Don't know what/who you are talking about but, my last post is still there. By the way, I currently HAVE a "drink"!

One needs a drink to try and make any sense of the absurdity of several of the comments on this thread.  There was an AP article on NPR where an expert summed it up best.  To quote:

Allan Zarembski, director of the University of Delaware's Railway Engineering and Safety Program, said he didn't want to speculate but suspected the derailment stemmed from an issue with the train track, equipment, or both.

Until a thorough review of the above is completed, the rest is pointless speculation.  At this time, the loss of life, injuries to passengers, and pain to all those personally affected seems to be where the focus should be while the people who are on the ground doing the forensics figure this out.   

Youtube had an NTSB update about 3 hours ago. They have retrieved the black box and found the locomotive and train was going between 75 and 78 mph. The allowed speed limit for passenger trains on this stretch of track is 79 mph. Additionally the train had not reached the nearest switch, so, presumably mis-aligned points would not be a cause. This would seem to exonerate the engineer......but we must wait for a more thorough investigation to be completed.

A very disheartening turn of events.

@GG1 4877 posted:

One needs a drink to try and make any sense of the absurdity of several of the comments on this thread.  There was an AP article on NPR where an expert summed it up best.  To quote:

Allan Zarembski, director of the University of Delaware's Railway Engineering and Safety Program, said he didn't want to speculate but suspected the derailment stemmed from an issue with the train track, equipment, or both.

Until a thorough review of the above is completed, the rest is pointless speculation.  At this time, the loss of life, injuries to passengers, and pain to all those personally affected seems to be where the focus should be while the people who are on the ground doing the forensics figure this out.   

Bingo.  Face it, we're all armchair quarterbacking, experienced folks and novices alike.

We're not on site, we didn't witness the derailment and any image from ground level or above can't tell us how the derailment happened.  Nor are we schooled in the investigation of transportation accidents.  That's what the NTSB is for.

Might be time to close this thread...

Rusty

I'm curious - with the power and first car or two remaining on the track, do sun kinks happen under a moving train at any point in the consist?

I have only seen examples such as Rich posted where the engineer and conductor observe the defect that has already happened and get the full effect if they are not able to stop in advance of the out of gauge track.

Paul

I ran across some photos of the derailment taken by local tv station from an aircraft the next day.  After looking at these photos was the first time I understood the derailment.  Missing from most photos is the rear three cars of the train. They are laying on their side about 500 feet east of the derailed cars shown on the switch. They are still coupled together.  The track appears to be up on a embankment about 8 feet above the natural ground. The cars are about 30 feet from the near rail on the south side with their trucks facing away the track. These cars had to role through about 270 degrees to get into this position. Damage to the roofs shows that the cars were sliding through the ballast when they were completely upside down. I am impressed that the couplers held together through this role.  

On the track adjacent to these cars, the gauge is spread wide with the north rail pushed nearly to the end of the ties. It appears that one or more of the trucks of the front part of the train were on the ground between the rails at this point. Clearly the point of derailment is still hundreds of feet farther to the east of this point. Looking at the google earth photos of this area shows a farm crossing some distance to the east of this point.  These dirt road crossings are always a point of concern.  

In what would have been the ditch on the north side of the track, BNSF crews have bladed a smooth work area where they are building track panels. There was probably about 400 feet already constructed when these photos were taken.  These is also a large pile of ballast being dumped.  It looks like as soon as the NTSB releases the site they are going push the existing track of the embankment and replacement it with panel track. I saw no pictures east of this point, but at 80 mph the damage to the track could extend a long way east of this point.  

The derailed cars at the turnout, east end of the siding, looked typical of what is seen when a derailed train is dragged through a facing point switch. In my opinion it says nothing about the probable cause of the derailment.   In my experience, if I were guessing at the probable cause, two things jump out.  One is that the front of the train was not derailed and the other is the rails were spread. I would be looking for a loose or broken wheel, broken axle, burnt off journal, or a piece of equipment that had fallen from under a car.  

Very tragic to lose three lives. 

The September 2021 Trains Magazine has an excellent article on broken rails "The Science of Broken Rails".   It notes that "broken rails are a leading cause of derailments".... and "the overwhelming majority are found and repaired before a derailment occurs."   The article also notes that "complicating the derailment investigation, is the fact that the point of derailment is often obscured by the pile of derailed cars."

So, given that this was a passenger train with a dozen or so cars and not a freight train with over 100 cars, if a broken rail was the cause, it would be found easier/quicker.  Some of the challenges is to find the initial broken rail,  since there are probably a lot of rails broken after the crash started. However, it was noted that the majority of broken rails occur during the winter as the cold weather causes steel to contract.

A distant second cause of derailments are various events like: journal/roller bearing failure, wide gauge, or buckled track.

It was an interesting article,  and included technology being employed to detecting rail flaws.

I have always wanted to go on the Empire Builder, this derailment is not going to derail my dream to do this trip and enjoy the sights.   

@Hot Water posted:

The link I posted said that the rail can be 20 -30 degrees hotter than ambient temperature or even more, so if outside temp was 84 could be 104 for example. Doesn't change what Hot Water said though, in this case one of the suspected items is the rail buckling or kinking, not softening, I don't know where anyone got that idea from.

@Rusty Traque posted:

Bingo.  Face it, we're all armchair quarterbacking, experienced folks and novices alike.

We're not on site, we didn't witness the derailment and any image from ground level or above can't tell us how the derailment happened.  Nor are we schooled in the investigation of transportation accidents.  That's what the NTSB is for.

Might be time to close this thread...

Rusty

Why? So people don't have a right to discuss when something like this occurs? The things we discuss on this board have 0 relevance to what goes on in the real world, a lawyer can't use what we say in court, it is basically a group of people discussing something that has happened. Of course we are speculating but then again, not one word of what we write on here has any meaning outside here. When the NTSB finishes its investigation we (hopefully) will learn what they think and that will be the official word on this, till then speculation is what it is, speculation, that has the weight of a billion dollars of bitcoin.

From the NTSB - “No clear answers have emerged yet as federal investigators look at why Amtrak’s Empire Builder derailed along a remote section of track in Montana on Saturday, killing three people.”

Link is pasted in below.

https://railfan.com/ntsb-fra-b...mpire-builder-wreck/

The speculation may now resume... 😏

Curt

The other thing I wonder about from a materials standpoint, this summer's weather in the area was weird, if you look at the temperatures in the area of Joplin this summer it got very hot, like into the upper 90's and 100, but they also had cool stretches way cooler than that (and obviously it gets cold at night there, can be 30 degrees or more colder at night). Could this pattern have weakened the rail, caused it to crack and it finally gave way as the train was passing over it? Yeah, it is speculation, but looking at the swings in temperature during the summer I wonder about that.

@David Johnston posted:

The track appears to be up on a embankment about 8 feet above the natural ground. The cars are about 30 feet from the near rail on the south side with their trucks facing away the track. These cars had to role through about 270 degrees to get into this position. Damage to the roofs shows that the cars were sliding through the ballast when they were completely upside down.

This had to be terrifying.  Thank you for this comment, this gives insight into violence of what was going on inside the cars that led to loss of life.  Such a tragedy.

@Allegheny posted:

The world has gone through several horrific climate changes all on its own without man's intervention in the past.   As we speak, the poles of the planet are moving getting ready to flip.    When it does (1-10,000 years from now) who or what will the media blame it on?  By the way its happened before.  So its normal.

Who is to say that previous climate change events were "horrific"? They were natural occurrences and are neither good nor bad.

What the heck does the Earth's magnetic field have to do with climate change? Nothing. (The magnetic poles will not flip within the next year nor are they even likely to flip within the next 10,000 years. It takes hundreds of thousands of years for the poles to reverse and there is little to no indication that they are in the process of doing so.)

Lastly, there is nothing normal about the current change in the Earth's climate. The rate at which it is occurring is entirely unnatural and it is accepted fact by the scientific community that its cause is anthropogenic. There is nothing "so-called" about it. It is horrific, because we are the root cause of the resulting destruction.

If it is found the that a sun kink caused the derailment and if the sun kink was the result of the current above average temperatures in Montana, then it is reasonable to say that the derailment was a result of anthropogenic climate change.

You are free to choose to dismiss this, but you would be factually wrong.

OK, enough said guys.  Getting way off topic.