Brass losing value

I would advise only buying the trains you really want to keep.  Things are only worth what people are willing to pay for them.  Most of the trains I have purchased over the years are only worth  fraction of what I paid for them,  but I bought them to run, not as an investment.  Sad,  but true.

I don't think it is sad.  It is certainly true.

The current lower prices, coupled with inflation, mean that more modelers of modest means can enjoy reasonably accurate models.

Certain MG and USH models have declined from highs in the $4000 range to just over $1200.  Note that one can now get the more common USH locomotives for just over $500.

Overland has taken a hit because so many of them were poorly assembled, with mechanisms that were designed for a mantel display.  I understand they fixed that.  I do not know what the date of the fix was.  Some of their Diesel models had inaccuracies - I have a trio of PAs with slightly inaccurate windshield openings.

Hobbies and investments are rarely compatible.  Hobbies are for fun.

All opinion.

Sounds like population aging is affecting scale as well as tinplate market....or maybe those four figure prices have affected both and scared new hobbyists off...

With Brass HO, there is a allot of secondary work required to bring it up today's technology... DCC, DCS, etc.

I believe Brass O has the same issues.

So many new products coming out that are now scale, so unless you are modeling something very elusive, the brass market is pretty soft.

Most all of my HO brass purchased new 40 years ago have yet to come up the price I paid for them. All of my second hand O scale brass  have been bought for a third or their original list price. This is not a new phenomenon. 

Pete

Brass is taking a huge hit right now. I just took a bath on my Overland GP30. Paid $750 last year and just sold for $530 minus PayPal and Ebay fees.  Ouch! A good friend of my is sitting on a good amount of S scale brass that he is having trouble getting more than 50% of what he paid. HO brass is even worse because modern plastic from companies like Rapido, Athearn, Scale Trains, etc... is so good. Fewer and fewer people are interested in painting and lighting. Not to mention that most people I know prefer DCC/Sound to come pre-installed. Add in the aging target audience and you see how we are where we are I guess.

I find it amazing how any brass company today can sell their new models when people realize what will happen to their non investment.   Yes, I guess, I will be running these models, if they do run,  in the future and get enjoyment out of them.   I won't consider selling them and the sons can when I pass.   But looking and see a bid on one Santa Fe SD40-2 at $1100+.  There is hope

jonnyspeed posted:

Brass is taking a huge hit right now. I just took a bath on my Overland GP30. Paid $750 last year and just sold for $530 minus PayPal and Ebay fees.  Ouch! A good friend of my is sitting on a good amount of S scale brass that he is having trouble getting more than 50% of what he paid. HO brass is even worse because modern plastic from companies like Rapido, Athearn, Scale Trains, etc... is so good. Fewer and fewer people are interested in painting and lighting. Not to mention that most people I know prefer DCC/Sound to come pre-installed. Add in the aging target audience and you see how we are where we are I guess.

I think you nailed it right on the head with this post.

Brass used to be the only factory-made way you could get:

• Correct details for the prototype
• Good can motors (in some cases)
• A model that held its value, unlike anything made form plastic

Those days are, thankfully, gone. For example, my Bachmann ten-wheelers have as much detail out of the box as a lot of brass used to come with. And already painted, too. You only have to look in a good hobby shop to see the amazing detail that is available for RTR HO and other scales now. Heck, some lot of it comes pre-weathered now! I saw a N scale set recently that has brass-quality details, painted, and weathered (two cars even had graphiti on them). Right out of the box it was ready for a photo shoot in one of the hobby magazines!

Some (if not many) people who buy/bought brass often were the types who liked collecting and wanted to know they had the most expensive stuff out there. Every hobby has these folks. The problem was, they often didn't run all that well. The magazines were filled with stories on how to re-engine brass locomotives so they'd run as good as they looked.

A good friend of mine in Florida collected brass for over 20 years and recently realized he'll never be able to sell it for what he has in it. His HO 'layout' is mostly a parking lot for a massive brass collection now. I doubt many of his locomotives ran all that well. Now, he's discovered the joys of O scale and will probably look to rebuild part of his massive (and for many years, totally dormant) layout into our favorite scale. But I can't imagine how little he'll get for his HO brass if/when he decides to sell.

I went to Whistle Stop trains in Portland a while back and looked in their brass case for the heck of it (it's all just HO, nothing I'd actually buy, due to the scale) and saw stuff for sale for less than what people paid back in the 80s, and that's not even adjusting for inflation! In other words, it's taking a massive hit in value when you consider what 70s-80s money would be worth today.

phill posted:

I find it amazing how any brass company today can sell their new models when people realize what will happen to their non investment.  

But, that's the whole point.  I don't buy brass as an investment.  I buy brass because it is of a prototype I like and want.  As many have said before me, trains are not investments.

Norton posted:

Most all of my HO brass purchased new 40 years ago have yet to come up the price I paid for them.

HO brass prices of 40 years ago, adjusted for 40 years of inflation, are not a pleasant reminder of your 'investment'....considering their current secondary market sales prices.

According to the C.O.L. calculator, a $100 price in 1976 would rise to $425 in 2016. 

I believe an HO PFM Santa Fe 2-8-0 (ubiquitous, I know) was my first brass acquisition about 50 years ago.  Even though it has basically languished in its box since then and could probably come close to the equally ubiquitous 'mint' rating, the thought of getting 4.25 times the original price is laughable....if not totally depressing.  Ain't gonna happen, not ever, zip, nada!

I'm with Bob2's pithy comment...

"Hobbies and investments are rarely compatible.  Hobbies are for fun."

...and that's the way it was for me 50 years ago....and still is.  

There's enough else in this world to be depressed about....but not my hobby purchases!

Also just an opinion.

KD

Slight qualification needed... 

Some brass may be losing value but quality brass is not..

ecd15 posted:

But, that's the whole point.  I don't buy brass as an investment.  I buy brass because it is of a prototype I like and want.  As many have said before me, trains are not investments.

True, but we all know people who bought them for an investment anyway, not realizing that the hobby was gonna have to morph in the future.

I recently talked with a visitor to my layout and he was totally blown away when I explained how few (4 total) locomotives I bought. I explained that part of it is the discipline of not buying excess stuff, another part is modeling a RR that had few locos and no interchange and yet another was only wanting stuff I could justify running on my layout at all (for example, I will never buy a D&GRW K-36, even though I love how they look). He was one of those guy who'd buy what he thought was cool, whether it made sense or not (for example, he just bought a brass Milwaukee Road Little Joe, though his layout has no overhead wires and is a Northeast prototype). He considered such purchases to be 'investments' and I brought this subject up, how brass has tanked in value and how much people take a hit when they try to sell anything used at a train show. I said, "I bought all my rolling stock and locos to run, not to sit around and be a burden for my wife to get rid of if I step out in front of a bus tomorrow."

The "brass as an investment" idea is even worse if you compare it against another investment instead of against inflation.  The S&P 500 had a high in 1976 of 108.72.  Today it is 2184, or slightly over 20 times higher.

I have a fair bit of brass, have weathered it all and run the heck out of it.  Who cares what the residual value will be when it is sold again, I'm getting the "fun equity" out of it now. 

Bob posted:

The "brass as an investment" idea is even worse if you compare it against another investment instead of against inflation.  The S&P 500 had a high in 1976 of 108.72.  Today it is 2184, or slightly over 20 times higher.

I have a fair bit of brass, have weathered it all and run the heck out of it.  Who cares what the residual value will be when it is sold again, I'm getting the "fun equity" out of it now. 

 

I agree.  I have a number of Williams brass locomotives that I am running.  Investment?  Try an index fund.

I bought a PRR B6sb switcher (shifter in proper PRR-speak) in 2006 for $400 (MIB).  I replaced it last year (in equivalent condition) for $200.

Enjoy your trains.

George

Here's my 3 guidelines for buying engines:

Is it less than $750?

Am I willing to take a Dremel to it?

Can I take it apart if something needs to be fixed?

If not, I don't buy it.

About  2o years ago I sold my collection of 100 HO & HOn3 locomotives to a brass dealer who I had bought from. I said I wanted get rid of them all and knew I wouldn't get retail price. He gave me 75% of retail which was a good deal-I was expecting 50%.   So with my 5 grand I invested in guns-antiques and some automatic weapons.  They really went up in value but I cashed out of that too.  So now I have O and Standard gauge and don't give a hoot on value.

Jim, you should have kept the automatics. They've rocketed up in value. For example, a Tommy Gun can easily go for well into 6-figures now!

The brass dealer later told me I sold at a good time because plastic with all the detail was knocking brass down.  I had a BAR and  a German MP44  and they are all worth megabucks now. The auto weapons were hassle because people would call the cops when I shot them on our family's 160 acre farm.  Plus I was afraid of them being stolen. I could have built a nice layout with the $$. Really trains are more fun.

Anybody who buys brass or any train for that manner and expects it to hold its value has rocks in their head. 

Some of the brass importers like OMI only has their selves to blame. Some looked great but they had cheap drivetrains. 

There was a thought amongst some of the importers that why make them run good when most will only be put on display. 

Model trains are to use not to become a investment.