Unbuilt kits as investments?

Cool, yes. 

Investment, no.

Nothing in model railroading is investment grade.

Rusty

Good question Alan,

Twenty years ago, I used to be heavy into airliner kits, both building and collecting. Before the internet and in the early days of online auctions it seems prices were higher because many people though some of these kits were truly rare. However, two thinks happened at pretty much the same time, basements and attics emptied out and items went online and the age of the remake came into full force, both normalizing prices. 

However, some kits will always be rare, especially those from long hone companies where the molds no longer exist.

All the best,

Miketg

Rusty Traque posted:

Nothing in model railroading is investment grade.

Rusty

Not entirely accurate, very largely true.  It's the rare instance where it happens.

Take a look at the FSM kits, for example, or event the Malinowski kits (Stoney Creek Designs), or the kits from Carl Cornish.  There is an entire world of kit collectors out there.....

Also, the brass vinegar, pickle, and palace poultry cars from Overland have done nothing but go up and up in price.

mwb posted:

Rusty Traque posted:

Nothing in model railroading is investment grade.

Rusty

Not entirely accurate, very largely true.  It's the rare instance where it happens.

Take a look at the FSM kits, for example, or event the Malinowski kits (Stoney Creek Designs), or the kits from Carl Cornish.  There is an entire world of kit collectors out there.....

Also, the brass vinegar, pickle, and palace poultry cars from Overland have done nothing but go up and up in price.

 

 

Of course, there are always a few exceptions, but I wouldn't plan my retirement around them.

Rusty

There is no right or wrong approach. However, if you are doing it as an investment, there are no guarantees. Personally, I buy what I want to build or play with. I have many kits that are new in the box and are no longer available. Their future collector value, if any, is of little consequence to me.

In the early sixties I was given a clipper ship model as a gift.  I built it and a gust of wind blew it over destroying it.  I always wanted to re do it and it took Revell 25 years to reissue the model.  I followed the molds around the world over time.  This was long before the interwebz so I did it by talking to the now dwindling mom and pop hobby shop owners.  Long story longer, I built the model around 1985 over 3 winters and put it in a plexiglass case where it sits today.

Point being, if the molds are good and worthwhile, somebody somewhere will buy them and re release them.  Look what happened with Korber and the Walthers cornerstone line.

IF there are molds, but many of the structures, in HO as well as O, in years gone, by were cut out of basswood, not plastic,  in somebody's basement, and will never be repeated.  I have tried to find some old HO kits, advertised in old model RR magazines, to copy in O, and could not.  There was an O scale kit made over 25 years ago in a town maybe 60 miles from here.  The owner tired of building kits and opened a hobby shop.   He retired and that closed a few years ago.  I have found a couple of his kits, but not the one I am looking for.  I walked through a train show this morning, looking for an old Ambroid HO kit I wanted the decals from to send off and get made in O scale.  Tons of plastic Walthers, Athearn, and other HO kits...but not this Ambroid wood kit.  Oh, I build old structure and car kits, I do not collect them, and, horror of horrors, I often kitbash them.

Creating laser-cut patterns and manufacturing them has become so easy and cheap that the market will soon be flooded with every imaginable 2-D model, including all "classic" designs.  (copyright will help only a little, since many designs on the market are copies of real buildings, for which copyright protection is dubious--such copies are arguably not "creative works").  Hard to maintain value in such a world.  The similar curve for 3-D tooling is not far behind.

I would not purchase any train related item, toy or real, as an investment.

C W Burfle posted:

I would not purchase any train related item, toy or real, as an investment.

I agree and would even suggest anything that is considered a modern collectible from baseball cards to automobiles are a trend driven industry that is of itself not an investment vehicle. 

It's no fun staring at a picture of the structure on the box wondering what it would look like built. Just like it is no fun opening the box after paying triple for it on ebay only to find all the pieces warped or find out the manufacture decided to remake it again after 5 yrs of not seeing one around. Enjoy it while you can before you find pieces of it 20 miles from your house laying in the street blown from your house from a tornado that wiped out the whole entire block. I would never be able to enjoy the out come of a finished structure if I left all my kits in their boxes. https://ogrforum.ogaugerr.com/t...13#37470280250324713

Rusty Traque posted:

mwb posted:

Rusty Traque posted:

Nothing in model railroading is investment grade.

Rusty

Not entirely accurate, very largely true.  It's the rare instance where it happens.

Take a look at the FSM kits, for example, or event the Malinowski kits (Stoney Creek Designs), or the kits from Carl Cornish.  There is an entire world of kit collectors out there.....

Also, the brass vinegar, pickle, and palace poultry cars from Overland have done nothing but go up and up in price.

 

 

Of course, there are always a few exceptions, but I wouldn't plan my retirement around them.

Rusty

Absoposilutely! 

I have around thirty iconic RC model airplane kits. Unbuilt and complete. They are worth about 10-15 times what they cost new fifty to sixty years ago. But the dollar is worth about 1/10th of what is was then, so it is pretty much a wash.

Well, when it comes to dollars, the first vintage car I bought, I drove home for $350.00, unrestored.  Now one in that same condition cannot be bought for $10,000.  A restored one may be listed in Hemmings for $35,000.  Maybe that 10 times rule doesn't apply to old cars, but a 100 times rule does?  Of course, the cost of restoring it to that $35,000 price, if it sells, may well exceed that price.  Still a wash, or worse?

reminds me of everyone saying O gauge post war will do nothing but go up...oops?

I think we all remember the MPC and LTI "investment" bubble of the late 1980s thru 2000.  The Lionel _________ Limited Collector Sets still sealed in shrink wrap.  And don't forget all those investment grade J.C. Penney engines with display cases.  Trains which are now selling for 10 - 25 % of those investment dollars.  Those who sold at the right time made money and those who invested, well . .   ummm.     There usually has to be a supply of an item that is "rare", but more important is to have an eager demand from people who have disposable funds to complete the market.   As far as investments go I would reference the 700E sealed box set or the boys train set.

It would be interesting to find out how many members of this forum have trains still new in the box, or maybe what percentage of trains represented on this forum are still new in the box. 

Yes, I suppose if you're collecting George Sellios' FSM kits or, maybe Sierrra West. That's because they are always sold out, have an enormous following (HO scale) and are incredibly well designed and complex. But frankly, I think there are better ways to tie up your money and wait/hope for a good return. 

Jerrman

The problem with old wood kits is deterioration of the wood. I built a 15 year old Marutaka B-17 RC model for an RC pilot. The balsa was so old and crappy that I had a terrible time with the fuselage and finally replaced all the skin wood for the wings. I find no excitement in kits without the intent (and joy) of building them. Box art is great, but I like what's inside and especially like to build them. One thing that's happening is the quality of kits is just becoming fantastic. Not only laser cutting, but the computerization of the mold making process and molding technology have just elevated plastic models (and wood craftsman kits) to levels unheard of when I was younger. I wish I wasn't up to my ears building my layout because I'd love to get back to building in plastic kits.

I have fond memories of building Adams Action Models in the late 1950s. They were state of the art in 1959. I have a long-standing watch list on eBay for Adams kits, but every time one comes up and I look at it, I realize that they're just not competitive with anything available today and I don't buy them. I running entirely on nostalgia and not on practicality. Take a look at OLDMODELKITS.com and relive your childhood.

The folks who might pay big money for unbuilt kits are the same folks who collect trains.  And we all know what Father Time is doing to them.