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@Mannyrock posted:

I came into this a year ago, and was frankly shocked at the high asking prices then, and now I am double shocked at how much they have risen in the past year.   I rarely buy NIB stuff, but even the used, VG+, lightly run quality stuff in the $180 range last year all seems to be in the $280  range now.

It would seem to me that if anyone has accumulated a large collection of quality items in the past, and put them away with a specific view to selling them at a profit, . . . now is the time.   

From this point onward, I believe that with inflation and shortages, disposable income is going to fall for the foreseeable future.  (Mine certainly has).  At the same time, the total number of people in the O gauge hobby seems to be falling.

The price of O gauge stuff is elastic, and it will hit the top and stall at some point in the next couple of years, and begin to fall.

(I notice that a number of people going to York this week have specifically said that they are not going to buy anything, because the prices are too high.)

All investments have a maturity point, and it is amazing how many investors simply "fall in love" with their investments and hold them way too long.

Year 2032:

Mom:  "Well, it was a beautiful funeral, and your father is finally at rest."

Daughter:  "Yes, . . . but Mom, what are we going to do with those hundreds of train cars in the basement?"

Mom:  "1-800-Got-Junk"



Mannyrock

Very well said.

Mike

I just watched an auction where a USED Lionel #990 Legacy Command Set base sold for $437 (including buyers' premium, but before tax and shipping). The lot listing didn't even have a picture of the unit to allow buyer to assess condition.  The list price for a NEW one is $399 and I've seen them at dealers for around $325-330.  So . . . umm . . . yeah, I guess there is some craziness in the market. LOL. 

Typical supply and demand driven pricing.  As demand goes up and the supply shrinks a bit, prices rise accordingly.  With more people staying home, less travel=more money to spend on hobbies.  I also think many people rediscovered trains as a hobby during the lockdown and this has increased demand for all trains, not just 3 rail or vintage.   Many things I could easily find at a "song and dance" price pre Covid, are now much harder to find and what is available is much more expensive than it was.  But we are nowhere near the prices that, say Postwar Lionel, was fetching in the mid to late 1990's.  Still plenty of deals and attic fresh trains out there despite all the "doom and gloom" some preach.   Happy hunting!     AD

There was plenty of high priced postwar at York which looked to still be there on Saturday afternoon.  For me, I sold three 2020's with tenders (two in sets), a 2046 w/tender for under $100 each.  Also sold a fair amount of postwar and MPC cars and accessories cheaply.  Note the word cheaply because that is what it seemed to take in order to move the items, along with being willing to negotiate.

@paigetrain posted:

this is not good for me as someone on a very tight budget who depends heavily on the used market

plus i'm looking for stuff that is specifically Norfolk and Western and i also need more fastrack so i'm in a difficult spot right now

You should be glad you don't need more Atlas O track!  I think platinum is cheaper by the ounce that an O-72 Switch.

@paigetrain posted:

this is not good for me as someone on a very tight budget who depends heavily on the used market

plus i'm looking for stuff that is specifically Norfolk and Western and i also need more fastrack so i'm in a difficult spot right now

Tight budgets come in to play for everyone. The market for anything changes so much that you will always see some things selling way out of what is considered outlandish. Thing is there are some folks who have the right price. The big problem is that usually these disappear even before you know they were there. The other part of it, and this has been discussed on here as well as people talking to me that some who buy those reasonably priced items turn around and raise the prices through the roof.

The good thing is that there are always other options, just need to know who to talk to and accept some things as they are. I had heard about the K-Line NYC J1 Hudson for example, and how great it looks. Since the release of Lionel's recent Hudson's, the market for most Hudson's has risen because of it. Yeah, some prices are reasonable, but most are really pushing it.

What wound up happening to me was I had talked to the one seller on the Bay, but he chose to stick to his big price tag of $600+. After talking to Pat and Pete, they steered me to the TCA buy/sell site. There I found one for just a little over $400. I had to pay the shipping, and that was the only reason it was just over $400. Meanwhile the Bay seller is still waiting for someone to pick up his $600+ engine that many are watching, but no one is biting on.

@paigetrain posted:

this is not good for me as someone on a very tight budget who depends heavily on the used market

plus i'm looking for stuff that is specifically Norfolk and Western and i also need more fastrack so i'm in a difficult spot right now

Given the current situation I think York recovered very well.  Nobody expected it to be bigger than ever with the COVID cloud still hanging over our heads.

At my local flea market used train shop, things are generally priced very reasonably.

But, last week I saw that they had a basket full of used Fast Track, straights and curves, and every piece was marked $5.00.

Just me, but I thought that was pretty high, especially since the well-used Lionel tube track is often priced at eight pieces for $10.  (They do have rust on them though.).

Mannyrock

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