What is your take on the used train market?

necrails posted:

...  Unless the faces in the line start to get younger there is going to be a large glut of trains out there with fewer and fewer buyers.  ...

Sadly, that's not gonna happen any time soon.  And the glut is only getting larger by the day.  It's been happening for several years now.

Just a day or two before the Allentown show, I posted some tinplate items for sale here on the forum -- thinking they were big items like Hellgate #305 Bridges, where local delivery at the show might be preferable over shipping.  All items were Mint or Like-New.

Seriously... Not ONE response or email inquiry.  Not one.    Five years ago, the stuff would have sold within a day or two easily.  Go figure.  

Oh yes, and as an aside... when I checked a couple of days ago, my listing was already solidly on Page 4 of the for-sale forum.   I can only imagine it's even further back in the archives today at the rate new for-sale posts are being added daily.  

David

Hopefully the "used train" market is doing better than the "new-old-stock" market because I have not been having great success moving some of that stuff lately (test run or displayed, but otherwise new-in-box). Things I have been selling in other scales are moving much better/faster.

Unless the faces in the line start to get younger there is going to be a large glut of trains out there with fewer and fewer buyers.

The faces might get younger when prices get low enough. But there are still going to be issues of space and mobility. How many shows on tiny house living are on cable TV these days? Are these shows reacting to interest or driving it?
My wife loves those shows, even though we have no intention of downsizing. I have yet to see one feature a toy/model train collection.
And as I've posted before, the same concern is being voiced by folks who are into other sorts of collecting.
But high end stuff still fetches a good buck in those areas of collecting, as well as in the world of toy trains.

I def agree! 

Marty Fitzhenry posted:

Good luck to anyone who wants to take the chance buying used.  That is OK at a train show where you can hold the engine and run it before laying your money down.  Every week I hear of someone who got screwed on fleabay.   I will not touch any of it.  

Marty,

So are you saying don't buy any used train gear ..???? Or only buy used train gear from Ebay..?? Or Just buy used train gear from only you and Ebay..?? Or just buy used train gear from train shows and you???

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

necrails posted:

...  Unless the faces in the line start to get younger there is going to be a large glut of trains out there with fewer and fewer buyers.  ...

Sadly, that's not gonna happen any time soon.  And the glut is only getting larger by the day.  It's been happening for several years now.

Just a day or two before the Allentown show, I posted some tinplate items for sale here on the forum -- thinking they were big items like Hellgate #305 Bridges, where local delivery at the show might be preferable over shipping.  All items were Mint or Like-New.

Seriously... Not ONE response or email inquiry.  Not one.    Five years ago, the stuff would have sold within a day or two easily.  Go figure.  

Oh yes, and as an aside... when I checked a couple of days ago, my listing was already solidly on Page 4 of the for-sale forum.   I can only imagine it's even further back in the archives today at the rate new for-sale posts are being added daily.  

David

Glad to see that people are still buying used train gear on the forum.

its a buyers market out there, so if you really need to get rid of an item slash the price..

L.I.TRAIN posted:

its a buyers market out there, so if you really need to get rid of an item slash the price..

Steve,

Yes, I agree it's a buyers market but I don't see to much slashing of used prices on Ebay..!!   Also buyers aren't being shy about asking for discounted prices.   "All is fair in love and war"

C W Burfle posted:

Unless the faces in the line start to get younger there is going to be a large glut of trains out there with fewer and fewer buyers.

The faces might get younger when prices get low enough. But there are still going to be issues of space and mobility. How many shows on tiny house living are on cable TV these days? Are these shows reacting to interest or driving it?
My wife loves those shows, even though we have no intention of downsizing. I have yet to see one feature a toy/model train collection.
And as I've posted before, the same concern is being voiced by folks who are into other sorts of collecting.
But high end stuff still fetches a good buck in those areas of collecting, as well as in the world of toy trains.

Personally, I think the tiny houses thing is just a passing fad. I often wonder how long those folks actually live in those things? My guess is very few of them make it a year or more and the majority much less than that. Just my guess though, I have no data to back it up. I think it would be interesting to see some actual data on this though.

Even if they do move up after a short time as I suspect, there's no guarantee they would have any train space in the new larger place either. 

If a seller has a item that is very much in demand it will sell at a premium, for example a Lionel S3 ,die-cast es44ac.   But all the other junk that's out there that's for sale, it's all hit or miss, in regards to price.

Also buyers have to wait to get the item they want at the price that there willing to pay.   That goes the same for the sellers.   Sellers have to wait to get the price they want from the buyers..!!!   Again, it is a buyers market when it comes to used train gear.  

P.S.   Not a good time to own or run a train store..!!  Unless it's Christmas and the shipping is free..!!

So, an item is either "in demand" or junk? 

My problem is all the " In Demand " stuff, is what I want to KEEP, Not Sell!!

Doug

Who would have thought selling at a large local train show in January, at the end of the day every MPC and early LTI item (lots of it) sold early on but most everything I brought post 2000 remained even though it was all priced to sell quick..

Joe    

Who would have thought selling at a large local train show in January, at the end of the day every MPC and early LTI item (lots of it) sold early on but most everything I brought post 2000 remained even though it was all priced to sell quick..

I am not surprised at all. There are people collecting older Modern era stuff.
And I will guess that your pre-2000 stuff was less expensive than your post-2000 stuff.

Personally, I think the tiny houses thing is just a passing fad. I often wonder how long those folks actually live in those things? My guess is very few of them make it a year or more and the majority much less than that. Just my guess though, I have no data to back it up. I think it would be interesting to see some actual data on this though.

I share your curiosity. I'd like to see a show follow up with the tiny homeowners after year. I know that I could not live like that.

Regardless, space was an issue with traditional "O" gauge layouts. And now that folks seem interested in scale sized equipment, the issue is multiplied.
 

Postwar is not dead, because I am not dead- yet. Of course it is dead as an investment but I never look at trains as an investment. When I have a growler repainted and restored it is for my enjoyment knowing I will never get what I have in it. I am only interested in conventional which is good because a lot of good product is being unloaded at the right price for me.

palallin posted:

So, an item is either "in demand" or junk? 

 

Palallin,

If an item is not in demand that someone wants to buy, then what is it..???

As for the new faces in the hobby. The hobby is too expensive for young people to consider.  Years ago the corporate world hungered for college and young talent. Opportunity to make a solid living was was everywhere. Today college grads are lucky to work in Starbucks as a barista.

leapinlarry posted:

Great Opinions, Great Observations, Great Predictions, The Pre War Era, TinPlate Era, Post War Era, Modern Era, and the Gently used train market is simply, in my opinion, the Culprit that GOT us all into this so called Predicament....Yes, this is where our Love of Toy Trains all Began...Yes,  as we get older, Our thoughts of those trains running under Christmas Trees is a Dream, as we saw the train pulling nice freight cars, passenger cars around and around, and to Us, looked Real....What a Dream Come True. Well, That Dream is over,But, NOW The Trains of today not only Look Realistic, Sound Realistic, and most of ALL, OPERATE REALISTIC with our favorite Command Systems.  Therefore, the older trains have gone south in value, the modern Trains with Command are more Desireable... therefore more valuable...Now to answer the QUESTION about Selling our Collection, or Individual pieces, The OGR Forum is the Best....I have seldom if ever got my money back selling my trains. I am in the Hobby for fun and if I capture 3/4 to 1/2 the money paid for a used, or just tested train, I am happy.  Also, I have traded with many folks on this Forum and it's simply lots of Fun... I do think the BTO (Built to Order) from our Manufacturers has hurt the flow of our $$$$. Good luck in Buying, and Better Luck in Selling. It's a Buyers Market...For the record, a collection generally brings 1/3 down to a 1/4 of what it's real worth is. The buyer of the collection has to sell it and it might take years to recapture his investment...WOW, That's simply the Facts....Now lets have fun.....

Larry,

Well said, Amen on that one..!!!.   Let me get back to playing with my BNSF es44ac die-cast locomotive ..!!  It's Friday and I just got paid…lol

challenger3980 posted:

My problem is all the " In Demand " stuff, is what I want to KEEP, Not Sell!!

Doug

Doug,

Some peoples junk is another mans treasure.

So what about the Postwar 773 1950 hudsons? 746s ? Norfolk &Western ?becoming more scarce and in demand?... Anyone's thoughts please?

So what about the Postwar 773 1950 hudsons? 746s ? Norfolk &Western ?becoming more scarce and in demand?... Anyone's thoughts please?

IMHO Postwar 773 (1950) hudsons and 746 N&W 's are suffering the same fate as any other postwar.  Demand for both has softened ever since Modern era Lionel reissued them. The market is shrinking, not growing, therefore, unless folks are destroying them, they are becoming more available.

Pristine examples continue to draw a good buck, and probably will continue to rise in price. The prices on lesser examples will fall.

I frequently sell PW and MPC  and AF items on ebay, and I get decent prices by starting the bid at $1.   By the end of the 10-day auction,  I've sold items for around $90 and $120 and up.   The bidders / market decide on the value.  I never use 'buy now' price, and, I never purchase 'buy now'.   Also, I never purchase where it says something like:  "minimum not yet met, keep bidding you idiot."   I think buyers trust you more when you begin with a 'ridiculously' low starting bid.

I only buy used. I won't pay new prices, but you have to be careful who you buy from. Plus I only buy at train shows. I like to see what I'm buying up close before I pull money out of my pocket and I don't like waiting for deliveries. Though you can still get a bad deal.

Toyspecialist posted:

palallin posted:

So, an item is either "in demand" or junk? 

 

Palallin,

If an item is not in demand that someone wants to buy, then what is it..???

You're joking, right?  It simply isn't "in demand."  Just because people aren't fighting over it doesn't mean it's undesirable. 

Junk is worn-out; unserviceable; irreparable; seriously damaged; mangled; folded, spindled, mutilated. 

The two categories have little to do with one another.

C W Burfle posted:

To thin the herd and make room for something else.

"To thin the herd?"    

Michael Hokkanen posted:

I was at the York show looking at flatcars with military loads.  One gentleman had a fat car with a helicopter.  He only wanted $15.  I said I would give him 13.  He said, "I'm not making any money on this thing anyway.  Why do you do that?"  Part of the game I guess – but maybe too far?   Well, I ended up paying the $15 and I feel like I still got a bargain.

You've gotta have some guts to ask for a $2 discount on a $15 item.  You said yourself that he "only" wanted $15.     Really?    Too far?   Yes.

I still buy from Australian and USA hobby shops but for large O scale items most of the time its ebay. A few observations about ebay from an overseas buyer.

And I do buy from advertisers here on the Forum if they will ship to me and have what I want.

Ebay:

Bargains:  Very rare sometimes I have jagged some by buying lots but you don't see a lot as someone mentioned could have been Marty.

Descriptions: There are two, one is price the other is the item. The price make sure it is for either a single item or multiple I have been caught thinking the Item was for two when it was only for one now if I am not sure I ask or walk. The item, where do you start. If the item is described as BRAND NEW I take the chance and so far that has been kind to me USED I would never buy a locomotive that has been used (yes Marty I agree!) unless I knew the owner (sometimes hard on ebay) or it was going for a ridiculous price and I only wanted it for spares. talking about prices if you bid against me and I really want the item be prepared to pay a high price I don't snipe the other buyers if someone does that to me I say it's my own fault I should have bid more some sellers must love me!

Shipping: it's written there in front of you either live with it or walk it varies a lot don't rush in, wait and observe the next day you might find the same item different seller with half the shipping costs of the previous seller, this is one of the things I like about ebay the costs are right in front of you most of the time you have the choice to buy or walk some hobby shops can't tell you the shipping costs straight away and this is risky because you might find yourself up for a massive shipping cost because they insist on sending at the highest level with insurance and please don't take this the wrong way I fully understand that Australia is a long way from the USA and the hobby shop wants to cover all bases but getting back to costs I still like to know before I click the buy button. I must say in the last few purchases from hobby shops the freight to Aust was right in front of me before I finalised the deal so things are improving and I appreciate that hobby shop owners!

Sellers: If you use ebay a lot like me you get to know some of the sellers and can trust them I have even made a sort of friendship with some but I still only buy from them using ebay if something goes wrong at least I have some kind of recall believe it or not in over 300 transactions I have never had to call in ebay to sort something out.

Overall: you have to be patient and not rush in I have to do a lot of research on certain items take the MTH side dump cars I never knew they existed till I happen to see one on ebay and thought they would make good cars for the Steel Mill so I researched them till I convinced myself they were near enough to scale for me now I have eight of them and really like them.

Courtesy: it is polite to reply to the seller if your happy with your purchase and give them 5 stars I would expect the same for me as a buyer.

There are probably other thoughts I could mention but I don't want to tell you everything who knows I might be bidding against you tomorrow! Grin.

Roo.

RadioRon posted:

Michael Hokkanen posted:

I was at the York show looking at flatcars with military loads.  One gentleman had a fat car with a helicopter.  He only wanted $15.  I said I would give him 13.  He said, "I'm not making any money on this thing anyway.  Why do you do that?"  Part of the game I guess – but maybe too far?   Well, I ended up paying the $15 and I feel like I still got a bargain.

You've gotta have some guts to ask for a $2 discount on a $15 item.  You said yourself that he "only" wanted $15.     Really?    Too far?   Yes.

I have to DISAGREE, at a swap meet like York, a seller should expect buyers to do some dickering. If Michael had offered $10 on a $15 item, that MAY have been going too far, but even then, the seller SHOULD have replied with a Smile and Politely said No Thank You. If you are going to get your feelings hurt over $2, you shouldn't be selling at a swap meet.

 I have been a seller at quite a few swap meets by now, and I have had many $10-20 items on my tables that I would have Gladly accepted an offer of only $2 less than my ASKING price, but then I am a hobbyist just trying to sell some unused items, not trying to feed my Family, or pay the mortgage, but even if I WAS in it as a business, there would have been no call for the reply that Michael received in MY opinion.

Too Far? NOT in MY Opinion, YMMV,

Doug

Great time to be in the hobby! So much is available in the used market it's unreal. Just never ending, no need to over pay for anything out there.

Roo posted:

I still buy from Australian and USA hobby shops but for large O scale items most of the time its ebay. A few observations about ebay from an overseas buyer.

And I do buy from advertisers here on the Forum if they will ship to me and have what I want.

Ebay:

Bargains:  Very rare sometimes I have jagged some by buying lots but you don't see a lot as someone mentioned could have been Marty.

Descriptions: There are two, one is price the other is the item. The price make sure it is for either a single item or multiple I have been caught thinking the Item was for two when it was only for one now if I am not sure I ask or walk. The item, where do you start. If the item is described as BRAND NEW I take the chance and so far that has been kind to me USED I would never buy a locomotive that has been used (yes Marty I agree!) unless I knew the owner (sometimes hard on ebay) or it was going for a ridiculous price and I only wanted it for spares. talking about prices if you bid against me and I really want the item be prepared to pay a high price I don't snipe the other buyers if someone does that to me I say it's my own fault I should have bid more some sellers must love me!

Shipping: it's written there in front of you either live with it or walk it varies a lot don't rush in, wait and observe the next day you might find the same item different seller with half the shipping costs of the previous seller, this is one of the things I like about ebay the costs are right in front of you most of the time you have the choice to buy or walk some hobby shops can't tell you the shipping costs straight away and this is risky because you might find yourself up for a massive shipping cost because they insist on sending at the highest level with insurance and please don't take this the wrong way I fully understand that Australia is a long way from the USA and the hobby shop wants to cover all bases but getting back to costs I still like to know before I click the buy button. I must say in the last few purchases from hobby shops the freight to Aust was right in front of me before I finalised the deal so things are improving and I appreciate that hobby shop owners!

Sellers: If you use ebay a lot like me you get to know some of the sellers and can trust them I have even made a sort of friendship with some but I still only buy from them using ebay if something goes wrong at least I have some kind of recall believe it or not in over 300 transactions I have never had to call in ebay to sort something out.

Overall: you have to be patient and not rush in I have to do a lot of research on certain items take the MTH side dump cars I never knew they existed till I happen to see one on ebay and thought they would make good cars for the Steel Mill so I researched them till I convinced myself they were near enough to scale for me now I have eight of them and really like them.

Courtesy: it is polite to reply to the seller if your happy with your purchase and give them 5 stars I would expect the same for me as a buyer.

There are probably other thoughts I could mention but I don't want to tell you everything who knows I might be bidding against you tomorrow! Grin.

Roo.

 

 

Good day Roo

I really enjoyed your summary & opinions.  I don't bother with eBay personally other than own some of their stock.  I use PayPal occasionally now to buy only.  I also know that for many people eBay might be the only way to get a variety of goods.

When i sell here on OGR, I only have have shipped to CONUS since I'm not sure what the costs are to ship internationally.  Example: What would you expect to pay for a 2lb package (1 boxcar) shipped from USA?

Thanks.

I would say the used market is great.  I buy used stuff from the forum and eBay.  Knock on wood, I've never had a problem.

Dennis LaGrua posted:

As for the new faces in the hobby. The hobby is too expensive for young people to consider.  Years ago the corporate world hungered for college and young talent. Opportunity to make a solid living was was everywhere. Today college grads are lucky to work in Starbucks as a barista.

I graduated from college in 1981.  I can recall HUNDREDS of companies coming on campus to interview seniors who would be graduating.  Some companies (like AT&T Bell Labs) would even offer to hire you and send you to Graduate School "full time" (at any institution) for a Masters Degree the year following graduation.  As I think back to those days, I probably had well over a dozen job offers in hand -- some local, some across the country.  And that's just from the companies I chose to explore more seriously after the first on-campus interview.    Had I visited more companies for a follow-up interview, I probably could have had another dozen or so job offers!  

Those of us graduating at the time could have written our own ticket (and many did) -- settling ANYWHERE in the country to work and live.  It was a VERY different time than what faces college grads of today.

David

C W Burfle posted:

Personally, I think the tiny houses thing is just a passing fad. I often wonder how long those folks actually live in those things? My guess is very few of them make it a year or more and the majority much less than that. Just my guess though, I have no data to back it up. I think it would be interesting to see some actual data on this though.

I share your curiosity. I'd like to see a show follow up with the tiny homeowners after year. I know that I could not live like that.

Regardless, space was an issue with traditional "O" gauge layouts. And now that folks seem interested in scale sized equipment, the issue is multiplied.
 

Or these small footprint 3 story houses being built in Houston.  To enter the house one has to climb stairs.  That might get old in a hurry.  Or if a child needs crutches.  Much less getting 4 by 8 sheets of wood up!

RadioRon posted:

Michael Hokkanen posted:

I was at the York show looking at flatcars with military loads.  One gentleman had a fat car with a helicopter.  He only wanted $15.  I said I would give him 13.  He said, "I'm not making any money on this thing anyway.  Why do you do that?"  Part of the game I guess – but maybe too far?   Well, I ended up paying the $15 and I feel like I still got a bargain.

You've gotta have some guts to ask for a $2 discount on a $15 item.  You said yourself that he "only" wanted $15.     Really?    Too far?   Yes.

It is rare that  a seller will not give me $2 off a $15 item, assuming we are talking about used stuff. At York in October, a guy had a bunch of decent 151 semaphores for $15 dollars. I offered $25 for two, he asked me if I would go $30 for three...

If a seller is not happy with an offer, a polite "no" is a powerful tool, polite being the operative word.

As far as the gentleman "not making any money on this thing anyway," he could use a brush-up on his sales skills. If he is seriously trying to make money selling $15 items at a flea market, he is probably going to be disappointed.

If a seller is not happy with an offer, a polite "no" is a powerful tool, polite being the operative word.

That has to go the other way too. An offer should be politely made.

Looks like the used market has picked up a bit in the last month. I follow Trainz  and the bay. Last few weeks seen lots of buying and people chasing bids.

Even people paying that extra 15% at Trainz Auction. The Scale rolling stock and Legacy engines are selling decent.

A Vision Challenger sold above MSRP.

http://marketplace.trainzaucti...ffer/details/8242175

Cheers!

The harder too find items are selling for big $$.  A new Weaver Brass Southern Tennessean went for $1300 plus shipping on the Bay last night.  I was hoping the seller would come down in his price if it did not sell.  Too much for me to spend on an older engine.  However, there were only 274 made which probably makes this engine worth more.  I have seen this same engine go for $2500 in one auction in past years and for over $1000 on Trainz for banged up model.  I should have grabbed it when I saw one go for under $700 several years ago.  

Rocky Mountaineer posted:

Dennis LaGrua posted:

As for the new faces in the hobby. The hobby is too expensive for young people to consider.  Years ago the corporate world hungered for college and young talent. Opportunity to make a solid living was was everywhere. Today college grads are lucky to work in Starbucks as a barista.

I graduated from college in 1981.  I can recall HUNDREDS of companies coming on campus to interview seniors who would be graduating.  Some companies (like AT&T Bell Labs) would even offer to hire you and send you to Graduate School "full time" (at any institution) for a Masters Degree the year following graduation.  As I think back to those days, I probably had well over a dozen job offers in hand -- some local, some across the country.  And that's just from the companies I chose to explore more seriously after the first on-campus interview.    Had I visited more companies for a follow-up interview, I probably could have had another dozen or so job offers!  

Those of us graduating at the time could have written our own ticket (and many did) -- settling ANYWHERE in the country to work and live.  It was a VERY different time than what faces college grads of today.

David

I have to disagree, and perhaps provide a bit point of view. Although I was in 1st grade in 1981, and cannot speak to how great the job market was then, in the late 1990's when I graduated college anyone with a degree in anything technology related landed  great jobs straight out of school. Jobs which paid more than most of their professional parents made at the time, to say that a early 20 something making 100k+ a year cannot afford any hobby they want is a bit off. most of my friends who took those jobs are millionaires today.

That today's economy has different skills required to take advantage of its rewards, does not mean that with a computer science degree and bit of drive, one will only find themselves at Starbucks. My father speaks to the same being the case in the 1960's when he graduated, anyone with science degree, or advanced math, was picked up by the big companies, same issue there were winner and losers then depending upon skill set.

cswalter posted:

Looks like the used market has picked up a bit in the last month. I follow Trainz  and the bay. Last few weeks seen lots of buying and people chasing bids.

Even people paying that extra 15% at Trainz Auction. The Scale rolling stock and Legacy engines are selling decent.

A Vision Challenger sold above MSRP.

http://marketplace.trainzaucti...ffer/details/8242175

 

Cheers!

 

Tax Refund Season.