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All of the new houses on former farm fields in Kalamazoo County are so narrow and tight that someone would have to buy a section of unused farmland or former railroad right-of-way for O scale 2-Rail or G gauge 2-rail track layouts that are truly model railroads, not just a section of a industry or a part of a railyard.

Andrew

Same in Texas. We just moved out of Texas, in fact, out of one of the fastest growing counties in the U.S.A. Thousands of new homes going up, and most are tiny houses on tiny lots., with no basements, and small garages. Not even room for an HO layout it seems.

Jeff

There are a number of things mentioned That I wonder about.    Someone stated that he read that "120 inches is the minimum for 2 rail".     That is simply mis-leading.    the minimum radius depends very very much on the size and type of locos you plan to run.    I started in 2 rail in the 80s and at that time, 48 inches was considered an OK size radius.    I used it on my first 2 layouts.    I have bunch of steamers, almost all PRR models, and almost all with go around 48 inch radius.    My current layout has 52 inch minimums on the mainline and everything can handle that.    The biggest loco I have is a Max Grey 2-10-4 (PRR J1 class).    The MG catalogue says it needs 54 inch radius.    However, it goes around a smoothly laid 52 inch radius with not trouble.   It does have blind drivers on the center 3 axles from the factory.     I have a 2 USH and one Sunset PRR Mikado.   they all go around 48 radius with no problem whatsoever.    I also have an MG and a SUnset 2-10-2 and they both handle the curves fine.   The MG has a blind center driver, but the SS has all flanges.     One key to this is that scale models usually have rods and bearings designed with some slight side play to allow them to "bend" into a curve much as the prototypes.    Although the models have much more play relatively than the prototypes.     I also have smaller locos such small and medium 2-8-0s, a 2-6-0 and a 4-4-0.    Most of these would easily go around 40  inch radius.

As for diesels, I have some Weaver RS3s and FAs.    these will go around 24 inch radius, but the couplers would not mate.    On 36 inch radius which a friend  uses, they have no problem with Kadee couplers in standard boxes staying coupled.     This friend also has at least one Overland Western Maryland "big" 2-8-0 with all flanged drivers and it operates fine on his 35 inch radius curves.     I have a number of the current Sunset diesels and they will go around 48 inch with no problems and the 4 axles ones will go smaller.     I do have an SD9 and a pair of E7s which are quite large in my opinion.    I actually tested and Overland E8 on my 48 inch curves for a friend and it was fine.

If you have models of 40ft freight cars you have not problems going to down to 36 inch radius.   Many 50 ft cars will also as the friend mentioned above has many.    

Models of 80 ft cars require larger radii, or modifications.    My SUnset GGD 80 ft cars will go around 48 inch without mods, but I think they would have trouble staying coupled on smaller radii, but the trucks do swing far enough.

So what defines a big engine?  

In an effort to put a positive "spin" on this, I considered what is the minimum it would require to make a 2-rail O scale (vs 3-rail O scale) decision "early" in the decision process.  The biggest hurdle is the internet interest by young people, and this is a big hurdle, for which I have no response.

I think that the following, as a minimum, are requirements to attract those who might CONSIDER 2-rail (vs 3-rail):  (If space is TRULY an issue, I have no answer except O gauge/scale has a basic inability to compete with HO if limited space is the criteria.)

MAKE THE COST OF ENTRY INTO 2 RAIL AS LOW AS POSSIBLE, PREFERABLY LOWER THAN 3-RAIL AND NO MORE THAN THE COST OF A LIONEL STARTER SET.  (The reality is that this will probably not increase market size significantly, but sustain the existing O market.)

-inexpensive two rail track, certainly no more expensive than 3-rail O gauge track, and preferably, with only two rails, less expensive. The sharpest curvature (48 radius?), pre curved 2-rail track that will permit operation of a small four axle locomotive.  A small circle or a rounded "square" that could include straight track and that would be large enough to surround a Christmas tree would be ideal.  This should be as least expensive as possible, a loss leader, perhaps at a price of $48-$64, that would be 12-16 pieces at $4/piece.

-an inexpensive DC power supply, at a price point of $75?

-a #5 hand thrown, non motorized switch for less than $40, assuming many modelers will want two for a siding.  (Limited low cost or unavailable switch offerings have been a perennial complaint in the 2-rail market.  This would come later.)

-Full O scale rolling stock offerings less trucks, but ALL with coupler pads for installation of Kadees or similar, and priced at no more than $30. (NO 6464 size boxcars or other here.)  USE ALREADY EXISTING TOOLING TO REDUCE ENTRY LEVEL COST!

-A choice of 2-rail or 3-rail trucks for a much lower cost than $25/pair, perhaps $15.  Even more cost effective is a standard truck with the ability to just change wheelsets.  Plastic wheels minimally acceptable but metal (insulated one side) preferred since  metal is common to Lionel, etc. Bulk discounts on 2-rail metal wheelsets vs one car set of four wheel and axle assemblies.  (All rolling stock to enable the installation of EITHER 2-rail or 3-rail trucks, with a screwdriver.)  USE ALREADY EXISTING TOOLING TO REDUCE ENTRY LEVEL COST!

-A short, small, but prototypically sized diesel switcher, EMD SW or Alco S type, with 2 can motors, that will operate on 12 vdc with a plug (like HO) that would permit later addition of DCC.  Metal axles and gearing and with the ability to replace 3-axle wheel sets with 2-rail wheel sets at a nominal cost, say $200. USE ALREADY EXISTING TOOLING TO REDUCE ENTRY LEVEL COST!

The main point with all of the above is to make the initial "buy in price" as low as possible.

If O gauge/O Scale model railroading is to grow, the few importers that exist will be required to deviate from a "harvest pricing" mode.  I am a TCA member and remember that TCA members were quite recently over 30,000.  The TCA magazine no longer publishes membership numbers, but based on the qty of magazines in a print run, TCA memberships have dropped by about 40 percent.  (The 12/2021 issue contains the number of copies printed closest to the filing date.  That number is 18,580.) Based on age demographics, I also believe that Lionel partisans and collectors are declining.  It's up to Lionel and Atlas to deviate from their existing modus operandi and try something different and innovative to sustain and then grow this market.  If they do not, the next step for the investment firm that owns Lionel will be to divest itself from its investment.  One problem I see with this recommendation is that it may already be too late.  An interesting statistic would be how many Lionel modelers are buying new Lionel vs buying in the used/old market.  If the O importers select the most appealing products and price them as above, the decision to buy new vs. paying for used/old/broken as the only option at sporadic train meets would be clear.

Regarding sales channel, the only thing that makes sense in a tight price market is to sell only direct via the internet.  (I am not against and certainly support hobby shops.  The problem is that there will not be sufficient "dollars" to maintain an importer and a hobby shop (ie a reseller)). The internet is the only sales channel that young people consistently use.

My OPINION.



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On the idea of operations being and "HO" thing only, I disagree.     I think there display runners in all scales, and operators in all scales.      I think operations on a model RR makes it much interesting and fun.    Just running trains around no matter how big the layout, does not hold my interest very long.  

Operations does not necessarily mean long trains either.     You could have a shortline that runs from a town on one side of the layout to an interchange on the other side.     You have 3-4 industries in the town, and each one might take 1-2 cars.     So the operation would consist of getting the engine out, picking up 4-6 outbound cars from the industries, tying on a caboose and running around to the other side of the layout to the interchange.   At the interchange you pull out a new set of 4-6 cars, push in the ones you brought over and reassemble a train to go back to the town.   When you get back to the town,  you set out the 4-6 cars at the industries where they are required.     if  you use some sort of system to assign the cars and you have some facing point switches, this bit of operation might take you 30-45 minutes.     And if  you routing system was somewhat random within its rules, each session would be different, ie a different switching puzzle.  

There are others who focus their operations on running trains not doing much switching of individual cars.     That does generally require more space, if not longer trains.

I think 2 rail modelers have more in common with HO and N scalers than with 3-railers.    Many of us use the same control systems and the wiring is basically done the same.     There is the probably the same interest in prototypical models and having operations on our layouts.     The modeling discussions often go in the direction of building or kitbashing an unavailable prototype and the details and painting it, rather discussing what is in the latest catalogue from the big mfgs.   

@Mannyrock

"Instead, young people who have this much spare room in their houses are routinely using it for work-out rooms, or  big-screen entertainment rooms, or  dedicated home offices.  More and more, basements are becoming integral parts of the family living space."

Look at all the pictures of the O Scale March meet and find me 10 people under the age of 60!  OS2R is definitely full of "old ducks", vs say people going to the multi scale meet in Amherst, MA.  It is definitely not an inexpensive hobby which many people cannot afford earlier in life when starting out with homes, families etc. I wonder what pictures of the 2042 March meet will show!

Your above statement could be true of any scale model railroad which has a lot of people worried.  It’s a shame they got rid of metal shop and wood shop in schools because it’s where I learned that building and tinkering with things was fun.  Now fun is had with a new pack of batteries or the latest charger that saves 2 minutes to fully recharge "a device"!

Peter

Saw this and just had to reply.  I won't talk in generality, only my own recent experience.  I agree with many of the comments already made, and fall into them.

I just started in to this hobby in the last year.  I had been a life long HO guy, mainly Athearn Blue Box.  I like the Transition Era because I like watching Steam go around a layout much more than diesel (more to watch).  Plus love Streamlined Passenger cars in more paint schemes than just Amtrak.   I always admired O SCALE.  It had always been out of reach for me.  In the 1990's I could buy a New blue box for $4, a Weaver Boxcar was $25-30.  Fast forward to 2021 I was on eBay I noticed that Weaver O Scale cars could be had for $15 if you were patient.  Current new HO Box cars are $20 plus.  Also new Broadway Limited Brand Steam Locos are $400 and they are plastic!  Found that Williams and Weaver Brass locos, that have been shelf queens, can be bought for that or less.  To me the time to change was NOW!!  Plus I'm not getting any younger, O Scale is easier to work with (poor vision, shaky hands, LOL).  Anyhow going to to 2 Rail of Course.  Wait, 3 Rail stuff is 20 times more available on eBay.  Plus 3 Rail requires only about half the radius for the Steam Locos.  Lastly I fell hard for K-line Passenger Cars, not accurate but who the heck cares, they are gorgeous.  Last time I fell that hard for something it was Female, amazing how in 40 years your perspective can change, LOL.  So 3 Rail it is!

Summary: Pros for 2 Rail it looks a little more accurate. Pros for 3 Rail everything else.  Btw bought a couple of Williams 2 rail locos when I was getting Started, guess what, no smoke units.

Hope some reads, and comments back to me.

I agree with all the space constraint comments about OS2R and modern living; but I continue to wonder why there aren't more clubs offering this option to members.  1/4 inch scale seems designed for a club sized layout.  Because of its size, it is a modeler's scale and easier on the eyes in operation too.  Perhaps the reason we 2-railers find ourselves so far out on the branch of the model railroading tree are long-ago decisions which still haunt us today.  Among these are the unfortunate choice of our ancestors to settle on one and a quarter inch track gauge.  Resulting attempts at "correction", such as 17/64", Q Scale, or today's Proto 48, have only served to divide our ranks.  A similar observation may be made about power- outside third-rail, DC, DCC, DCS, TMCC, dead rail, etc. has not helped to swell the numbers of 2-railers.  I'm unsure if any other gauge of scale railroaders has suffered more in this regard by having adherents go to options which never become universal for the scale. 

About 20 years ago I was in 3 rail and repeated most of the same myths I'm reading in this thread. Then I saw a few 0 scale 2 rail layouts that actually ran in small spaces, and ran well. Then I saw Ed Rappe's (the guy who posted earlier in this thread) layout and that pushed me over the edge pretty quickly to convert to 2 rail 0 scale.

1) I think it helps to see that others have made it work.

After years of believing that 2 rail 0 scale was "too hard to do," I have not found anything I have approached in 2 rail to be particularly difficult. What it has required is patience.

2) How do you make patience popular?

I don't necessarily care that 2 rail 0 becomes popular. As it stands 2 rail 0 is pretty unique. That fact that most modelers are not doing 2 rail 0 makes it that much more special to see people pull it off.

True O scale passenger cars are gigantic.  I bought several O scale cars from American car company, old school, All Nations O/S cars and built them.  To my delight they came out beautiful.. However, when placed on my 3-rail system, 31 and 36 radius curves... They could not negotiate the curves...  O scale is completely accurate prototype models.  I love them.. But, they do require extra room and space to have a decent operating layout.  In reality, O Gauge isn't that much smaller, but is easier to manage in a smaller space.  I think all gauges are becoming rather expensive compared to just a few years back.   I guess it all boils down to what personal circumstances allow .  Space, and budget. 

@Hudson5432 posted:

-inexpensive two rail track, certainly no more expensive than 3-rail O gauge track, and preferably, with only two rails, less expensive. The sharpest curvature (48 radius?), pre curved 2-rail track that will permit operation of a small four axle locomotive.  A small circle or a rounded "square" that could include straight track and that would be large enough to surround a Christmas tree would be ideal.  This should be as least expensive as possible, a loss leader, perhaps at a price of $48-$64, that would be 12-16 pieces at $4/piece.



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Waaaayyyy back in the 1970's/1908's Atlas and AHM/Rivarrossi offered 24" radius 2-rail O Scale track and turnouts.  AHM also had 31.5" radius curves in their 2-rail O sets which included their Casey Jones 4-6-0 and IHB 0-8-0.

Rusty

As I said it is my personal journey, and was explaining why I, made the choice I did.  Sorry Christopher, you are correct, grammatically I should have said, I could care less, I did not mean to offend.

I do own Atlas 2R O Scale California Zephyr Cars.  I was at Trainfest in Milwaukee when Atlas was showing the first prototype, believe about 15 years ago.  I had been following it.  When I saw it, I made a comment that I was surprised it was plastic instead of Aluminum.  The Atlas rep stated that to get correct detail plastic molded plastic was the way to go.  I explained I understood, I am a Mechanical Design Engineer.  He asked what I thought and said I was somewhat disappointed.  The cars, when first introduced, were not much difference pricewise than where Sunset/3rd Rail was at that time.

My take is different than many.  I buy what I like the look of.  So I actually have bought both Atlas and K-Line 4600 series cars.

I do understand the premise of rivet counting accuracy, I felt that way for years.  However I made the personal decision to let it go because no matter how accurate it is still just a toy.  Yes, it can be argued by many that an accurate scale model is not a toy, it is a scale archival representation of the real item.  As I said I am a Mechanical Engineer (a very analytical one at that).  However with that being the case where do you draw the line?  It is currently technically impossible to make laminated glass windows that are 1:48 actual thickness, including the center laminate.

All materials are too thick in O Scale, but that does explain why I buy Brass Locos instead of die cast, at least they are closer.

I also agree with Bill's comment about how O R2 has been further fractionalized.  It definitely doesn't help.

Should I start a thread about the pros and cons of achieving Prototypical accuracy?   Would I just be starting a slug-fest?

I am new to the forum, and not sure what kind of topics other would like to discuss.

Saw this and just had to reply.  I won't talk in generality, only my own recent experience.  I agree with many of the comments already made, and fall into them.

I just started in to this hobby in the last year.  I had been a life long HO guy, mainly Athearn Blue Box.  I like the Transition Era because I like watching Steam go around a layout much more than diesel (more to watch).  Plus love Streamlined Passenger cars in more paint schemes than just Amtrak.   I always admired O SCALE.  It had always been out of reach for me.  In the 1990's I could buy a New blue box for $4, a Weaver Boxcar was $25-30.  Fast forward to 2021 I was on eBay I noticed that Weaver O Scale cars could be had for $15 if you were patient.  Current new HO Box cars are $20 plus.  Also new Broadway Limited Brand Steam Locos are $400 and they are plastic!  Found that Williams and Weaver Brass locos, that have been shelf queens, can be bought for that or less.  To me the time to change was NOW!!  Plus I'm not getting any younger, O Scale is easier to work with (poor vision, shaky hands, LOL).  Anyhow going to to 2 Rail of Course.  Wait, 3 Rail stuff is 20 times more available on eBay.  Plus 3 Rail requires only about half the radius for the Steam Locos.  Lastly I fell hard for K-line Passenger Cars, not accurate but who the heck cares, they are gorgeous.  Last time I fell that hard for something it was Female, amazing how in 40 years your perspective can change, LOL.  So 3 Rail it is!

Summary: Pros for 2 Rail it looks a little more accurate. Pros for 3 Rail everything else.  Btw bought a couple of Williams 2 rail locos when I was getting Started, guess what, no smoke units.

Hope some reads, and comments back to me.

The  lower prices  , at the time .,I fell into  Full sized O  scale, was a factor on bumping up from 0n30. As a modeler (not a collector) working in O scale is just about perfect!  Any thing can be scratch built with ease  with an Architectual scale.  Vintage cars , in kit form or built up are plentiful and affordable,, and with  Battery Power Radio Control ( its been around for 30 years now) and the new light weight batteries > I am no longer limited to running  on 3 rai track.  I can operate Code 148 2 rail track  with either scale or high rail flanges.    My train room is small 10.5 x11.5" enough for a loop  of 72" diameter track Turnouts sidings and a point to point narrow gauge 

Waaaayyyy back in the 1970's/1908's Atlas and AHM/Rivarrossi offered 24" radius 2-rail O Scale track and turnouts.  AHM also had 31.5" radius curves in their 2-rail O sets which included their Casey Jones 4-6-0 and IHB 0-8-0.

Rusty

Yes...and as I've mentioned before, I was able to use body-mounted coupler rolling stock if the screws holding the couplers were not tightened completely, and a little "play" was allowed. This applied to both cars and Weaver diesels...on the Atlas 24"R track.

Not "ideal", but doable and it functioned just fine...

Mark in Oregon

Wow great discussion, I am a boomer with 30 something kids. If you want to reach these "kids" (anyone under 50) you have to do it though media and tell a great story about why they need to get involved. The reality is this generation is having kids later, are buying homes later and for the most part do not have the free time to do an individual hobby like model railroading. Maybe they will be willing participants when they hit their fifties. Granted there are a few younger guys in the forum doing reviews and gathering youtube followers, but still not many. 

Way back in the 60s when I loved HO, I grew frustrated with the need for a 36 radius / 72 diameter track in order to run my HO  SP GS4 Daylight and long passenger cars - it did not do well on a 4x8 plywood sheet. Went to college, the trains got boxed up not to see daylight until my oldest son was "old" enough to play with them. Not wanting my HO models to be destroyed, I quickly went into the traditional Lionel route, buying a few used engines and cars for a Christmas layout - like I remembered as a kid. Those eventually went into storage until the grand kids visited over the holidays and we went to a local train show. They loved it and I then remembered I still had the post-war Lionel.  Hauled those out and the rest is history. They triggered a renewed interest in railroading in me.  And have been re-learning the hobby for the past 3 years or so. And my excuse is "its for the grandkids"  !

Perhaps if we really want to get people involved in the hobby and as the question asks for 2 rail scale, maybe we need to get this into the public more often. Perhaps permanent layouts in shopping centers or other gathering spaces. There is already a ton on content on youtube, so it would be a matter of getting their eyes to view it. But this is a physical hobby not a virtual hobby. Gamers get together for conventions to do battle, perhaps "railroading" competitions would attract attention. They already do exquisite modeling of their players and battle grounds - turn the attention to the battle of the railroads. Best realistic modeling of anything.  Shortest switching time competitions. Fantasy trains not unlike the Snowpiercer movies and spinoffs - of course that's not prototype.

For me as much as I am intrigued by 2 rail scale, when I can't get a scale wheeled engine to turn a 072 diameter curve, that is a problem for me. I am extremely unlikely to ever have the space necessary for 60 or 70 inch radius curves, I cannot imagine the younger generation ever having that option in any numbers. That said I do intend to work in a 2 rail switching layout on my next 3R layout.

This would also seem to imply the hobby needs large spaces where future enthusiasts can get together and play. How about a a railroad themed escape room? While clubs are fine for viewing during the narrow times they are open to the public, how many let people operate the trains? Is there room for a new business model? Might it gather enough interest to be financially successful?

Just some thoughts .... Scoutingdad

David Barrow also built a compact two-rail switching layout.  It was bigger than Tony Koester’s Wingate  modules, and I believe that Barrow used his Domino modular design when he built it.  Drawing from my faulty memory, I believe that it was about two feet wide and about sixteen feet long.  It represented either a very small town with grain elevators or a switching district and was powered by dead-rail.  in true Barrow style, scenery was minimal.

I googled a couple of images using “David Barrow” and “O scale” as keywords.

The problem is the increased chance of short circuits for limited space operations with reverse loops.

People need to have large buildings with a vast amount of room for the track plans to be realistic in 2-rail O scale.

The trend towards tiny houses is the opposite is what is needed for the construction of a home 2-Rail O scale track layout for a model railroad.

People are going to need a large model railroad club building for 2-rail O scale model railroads.

Andrew

Well, if that's the case we might as well come and tear down my 2 rail layout. It 4' x 16' with a 6' arm, "L" shaped. I use smaller 4 axle locos and 40' and 50' cars. It suits me just fine.

1. Wire your layout correctly. If reverse loops were as big a problem as you believe no one would bother with HO or N scale.

2. You do NOT need acres of a viable O scale layout. I have seen a lot of 3 rail layouts that are done on 4' x 8' or 5' x 10' layouts

3.  I don't understand what is meant by tiny houses. I may not have a turntable and round house but I don't want one.

4. I have seen building size 3 rail layouts.

I built what I wanted.

Dick

Look at the bigger picture fellas, ….think about it in these terms, …..3 rail “O Gauge” encompasses a lot of different aspects ….from the the traditional under the Christmas tree set up, to a million converted ping pong table layouts all across the world,…..I bet if you look at the Scale O end of things, you might find that 2 rail and 3 rail probably run tit for tat, ….I’m talking about those that conform to true scale, as most 2 rail guys do, …….trying to compare 2 rail O scale to the giant of 3 rail O gauge is a David and Goliath story, ……now take the 3 rail scale aspect and compare it, then you’ll have a discussion ……

Pat

@Hudson5432 posted:

In an effort to put a positive "spin" on this, I considered what is the minimum it would require to make a 2-rail O scale (vs 3-rail O scale) decision "early" in the decision process.  The biggest hurdle is the internet interest by young people, and this is a big hurdle, for which I have no response.

I think that the following, as a minimum, are requirements to attract those who might CONSIDER 2-rail (vs 3-rail):  (If space is TRULY an issue, I have no answer except O gauge/scale has a basic inability to compete with HO if limited space is the criteria.)

MAKE THE COST OF ENTRY INTO 2 RAIL AS LOW AS POSSIBLE, PREFERABLY LOWER THAN 3-RAIL AND NO MORE THAN THE COST OF A LIONEL STARTER SET.  (The reality is that this will probably not increase market size significantly, but sustain the existing O market.)

-inexpensive two rail track, certainly no more expensive than 3-rail O gauge track, and preferably, with only two rails, less expensive. The sharpest curvature (48 radius?), pre curved 2-rail track that will permit operation of a small four axle locomotive.  A small circle or a rounded "square" that could include straight track and that would be large enough to surround a Christmas tree would be ideal.  This should be as least expensive as possible, a loss leader, perhaps at a price of $48-$64, that would be 12-16 pieces at $4/piece.

-an inexpensive DC power supply, at a price point of $75?

-a #5 hand thrown, non motorized switch for less than $40, assuming many modelers will want two for a siding.  (Limited low cost or unavailable switch offerings have been a perennial complaint in the 2-rail market.  This would come later.)

-Full O scale rolling stock offerings less trucks, but ALL with coupler pads for installation of Kadees or similar, and priced at no more than $30. (NO 6464 size boxcars or other here.)  USE ALREADY EXISTING TOOLING TO REDUCE ENTRY LEVEL COST!

-A choice of 2-rail or 3-rail trucks for a much lower cost than $25/pair, perhaps $15.  Even more cost effective is a standard truck with the ability to just change wheelsets.  Plastic wheels minimally acceptable but metal (insulated one side) preferred since  metal is common to Lionel, etc. Bulk discounts on 2-rail metal wheelsets vs one car set of four wheel and axle assemblies.  (All rolling stock to enable the installation of EITHER 2-rail or 3-rail trucks, with a screwdriver.)  USE ALREADY EXISTING TOOLING TO REDUCE ENTRY LEVEL COST!

-A short, small, but prototypically sized diesel switcher, EMD SW or Alco S type, with 2 can motors, that will operate on 12 vdc with a plug (like HO) that would permit later addition of DCC.  Metal axles and gearing and with the ability to replace 3-axle wheel sets with 2-rail wheel sets at a nominal cost, say $200. USE ALREADY EXISTING TOOLING TO REDUCE ENTRY LEVEL COST!

The main point with all of the above is to make the initial "buy in price" as low as possible.

If O gauge/O Scale model railroading is to grow, the few importers that exist will be required to deviate from a "harvest pricing" mode.  I am a TCA member and remember that TCA members were quite recently over 30,000.  The TCA magazine no longer publishes membership numbers, but based on the qty of magazines in a print run, TCA memberships have dropped by about 40 percent.  (The 12/2021 issue contains the number of copies printed closest to the filing date.  That number is 18,580.) Based on age demographics, I also believe that Lionel partisans and collectors are declining.  It's up to Lionel and Atlas to deviate from their existing modus operandi and try something different and innovative to sustain and then grow this market.  If they do not, the next step for the investment firm that owns Lionel will be to divest itself from its investment.  One problem I see with this recommendation is that it may already be too late.  An interesting statistic would be how many Lionel modelers are buying new Lionel vs buying in the used/old market.  If the O importers select the most appealing products and price them as above, the decision to buy new vs. paying for used/old/broken as the only option at sporadic train meets would be clear.

Regarding sales channel, the only thing that makes sense in a tight price market is to sell only direct via the internet.  (I am not against and certainly support hobby shops.  The problem is that there will not be sufficient "dollars" to maintain an importer and a hobby shop (ie a reseller)). The internet is the only sales channel that young people consistently use.

My OPINION.



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In the 1970s I owned a hobby shop, in fact at one point we had 3 in Sioux City, about 85,000 folks. One would not discount to anyone, it's still in business from 1946. I did some discounting to RC people and an HO club in town. The third was open a year when I sold mine. We all carried craft items as well. There is where I made money. The model train business is different these days. I bought from wholesalers at usually a 40% discount, Atlas was 33%, the craft 50 or 60% was normal as long as I repackaged bulk items.

So let's say I made $1.00 a year. 60 cents bought stuff, I had rent, utilities, insurance should a child go home and drink some paint. I did some "Shopper" ads at Christmas so by the time all was said and done I might have a nickel or if really busy a dime left over for me to reinvest in the business. I owned the business 5 years until a crazy dude walked in and made me an offer, I took it. I never lost money but sure didn't make much. Yes, I was able to say it was my business.

Dick

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