UPDATE ... March 2024: 3rd Rail SD40-2's

@rdunniii posted:

The problem is, with fewer models at a higher price, as demonstrated above, is that there are too many variations with insufficient reservations for each.  If there were 75+ reservations each for ATSF, UP, and BN then it would be very doable for ~$800 each.  But there are no more than about 10 reservations for any variation, most are about 5.  At 5-10 models per variation you probably looking at $1200-$1500 per model.

Really? C'mon Chessie peeps where you at? Don't make me go this alone I have 2 on order and that's about all I can do for a model that won't run on my curves and will sit on a shelf. Something smaller like the SW1 will see me order more.

Maybe if Scott didn't advertise every RR under the sun and did them in multiple runs with different road names each time he would get more orders for fewer road names. Just a thought...

The railroad schemes shown not include The Grand Trunk Western in 1980's blue and The SOO LINE 1973 in white.

Both of which did NOT have dynamic brakes.

Unless the team at LIONEL come up a new modular SD40-2 also, there is not much chance of getting a GTW or SOO SD40-2 that matches or matched the real ones.

Andrew

Sounds like we need 250-300 reservations to make this fly at 750-800. There are 17 models offered so 16 each gets us to 275. Just saying. If 100 people buy 2 and another 75 buy 1 we get there. Just hypothetical of course.  That’s 175 buyers. Boy. These aren’t big numbers !!!!  And we are still having trouble getting there.
I think perhaps we have some Sunset models competing with other Sunset models for dollars. 🤔😣

@jonnyspeed posted:

If Scott didn't advertise every RR under the sun and did them in multiple runs with different road names each time he would get more orders for fewer road names. Just a thought...

Well, I'm not in the 40-2 hunt, but I doubt this would be acceptable to many of the O2R/O3R crowd who are passionate about wanting their personal favorite.

I keep thinking about....and waking up each morning feeling the effects of...the demographics of our group.  We ain't getting any younger.   Pandemics don't help.  Uncertainties about our near- and post-retirement finances in a changing world lead us to Maalox and aspirin, sometimes daily.  IOW, mortality is the hoofbeat behind us, getting louder in spite of our declining sense of hearing.

Scott undoubtedly has a lot on his platter, so to speak.  I'm sure he gets a lot of 'help' in laying out production plans for a myriad of models.  Heck, I have callouses on my knees from prostrating myself in groveling embarrassment before the man.  Second....even third...runs of models are not his normal modus operandi.... and they're seldom in quick succession anyway.  Some of us just hope our dreams will come true before our fire drops.  I'm in the upper end of the septuagenarian years.  I'm not sure I'd enjoy waiting for re-run #2...or more so #3...just to keep my reservation and enthusiasm...and heartbeat...going a tad longer.  And, with a bunch of other steam/diesel/electric/passenger train projects under consideration in between, those could be lengthy waits.  Or, let's do multiple runs of the same engine in quick succession...and push the other dreams off into the sunset a bit longer!?  Oof with a woof!

Besides, if we're adamant about a very specific paint scheme, detailed variant, smaller flag, third/fourth owner shortline version, what are the chances of EVER getting that minimum number of interested (less-passionate) buyers to hit a minimum doable quantity?...especially as time ticks on??

Lastly, here's another perspective that can really cause insomnia!..   If you...like me...always thought that Mike Wolf was a "kid"...Mike: The young Giant Slayer!...(seems like only 'yesterday' he began his career from his family home!)....and now he wants a well-deserved retirement!?!?!...    Can Scott Mann be far behind?

Waiting?  Multiple runs??  "Take a number!"?.....

Tick....tock....tick...tock...tick...tock...

Just a thought...

KD

Ken,  Scott and I talked about his retirement on Sunday. I don't see that happening for quite some time yet with the proviso that the Orientals are willing to produce trains. There are very few similarities between Scott and Mike Wolf and how their businesses are run.

R. Heil   Sunset / 3rd Rail / Golden Gate Depot

@rheil posted:

Ken,  Scott and I talked about his retirement on Sunday. I don't see that happening for quite some time yet with the proviso that the Orientals are willing to produce trains. There are very few similarities between Scott and Mike Wolf and how their businesses are run.

R. Heil   Sunset / 3rd Rail / Golden Gate Depot

Glad Scott plans on being around - delivering great models. 🤗🙂🙃. He just needs to have enough of us Stay around and commit enough reservations to launch new products. 😬. Seriously - great product truly appreciated. 👍👍

"Can Scott Mann be far behind?"  Short answer... No.

Long Answer: As long as customers ask us to make models, and we get enough orders, then I will continue to make model trains.

I don't know what I would do with myself if I wasn't working on something. For me, this is my hobby, running the business, reviewing the designs, traveling and checking production, interacting with interesting and interested customers at the shows. Getting a little golf in with the factory guys.

I get up early, 2- 3 AM most days and chat with Korea and China (end of their day), answer emails and maybe go back to sleep for a few more hours. I work with the office (remotely for now), coming in on their off days.

I don't wake early because I have to. I have always been an early bird. I love driving around town with no one out except me and the animals. I see Deer, Skunks, Raccoons, Owls... I have to drive more cautiously at that time because the deer tend to jump out from the bushes when they see my lights.

Before COVID, I traveled extensively to Korea, China and Europe (When we make European models), and Chicago and the East Coast (York). And I am the biggest white knuckle flyer you ever met, but I still traveled. That part of the business is gravy for the soul. To be able to pat the guys that make this stuff on the back, hold production models, make small corrections and changes with eager smiles from the workers. Everyone is invested emotionally. How could I walk away from that.

As time goes on I feel obligated to keep going to help those that make the designs, tooling and models, work at our office, print the magazines, all trying to make a living at it. We all have pledged to help each other in business, and so I feel the same obligation.

Dad was the same way. He came to work even during his Chemo at 75 years old, most every day. He was pretty tired most of that time. He passed away at 78, leaving me to run the business. I remember walking around the office early in the morning, before anyone was there. I could hear his voice, words of advise. Things I already knew, but we had rehashed over and over during our 10 years working together almost every day. He too loved running the business.

So that's the long answer. I am here to stay, as long as I have support from the factories, customers and a little luck.

BTW: Would you guys be mad if I dropped the SD40-2 for something more popular? After all this time we only have 190 reservations, only 1/2 of what is needed.  What could the new diesel be that many want?

Scott Mann

Hi Scott,

Hoping for some big ALCO's; C628's, C630's, C636's

Thanks.

@sdmann posted:

BTW: Would you guys be mad if I dropped the SD40-2 for something more popular? After all this time we only have 190 reservations, only 1/2 of what is needed.  What could the new diesel be that many want?

Scott Mann

Scott, I love what you and your team do for the hobby. Thank you.

I'd like to offer a suggestion:

When you make an announcement and list it on your website add a "counter board" on each project that clearly shows your minimum requirement and an updating tally of FIRM reservations.  Also Include a project "expiration date".

1.) I believe this simple communication will go a long way to settle things for all interested parties.

2.) It will serve as both motivation and a reality check for us modelers who want a particular prototype made.

3.) It should also allow you to be more responsive to your customers.  Creating an opportunity to make even more announcements, testing the interest for each, and more nimbly adjusting to revenue generating preferences.

I hope you consider it.

Thanks again.

- Will

@sdmann posted:

"Can Scott Mann be far behind?"  Short answer... No.

Long Answer: As long as customers ask us to make models, and we get enough orders, then I will continue to make model trains.

I don't know what I would do with myself if I wasn't working on something. For me, this is my hobby, running the business, reviewing the designs, traveling and checking production, interacting with interesting and interested customers at the shows. Getting a little golf in with the factory guys.

I get up early, 2- 3 AM most days and chat with Korea and China (end of their day), answer emails and maybe go back to sleep for a few more hours. I work with the office (remotely for now), coming in on their off days.

I don't wake early because I have to. I have always been an early bird. I love driving around town with no one out except me and the animals. I see Deer, Skunks, Raccoons, Owls... I have to drive more cautiously at that time because the deer tend to jump out from the bushes when they see my lights.

Before COVID, I traveled extensively to Korea, China and Europe (When we make European models), and Chicago and the East Coast (York). And I am the biggest white knuckle flyer you ever met, but I still traveled. That part of the business is gravy for the soul. To be able to pat the guys that make this stuff on the back, hold production models, make small corrections and changes with eager smiles from the workers. Everyone is invested emotionally. How could I walk away from that.

As time goes on I feel obligated to keep going to help those that make the designs, tooling and models, work at our office, print the magazines, all trying to make a living at it. We all have pledged to help each other in business, and so I feel the same obligation.

Dad was the same way. He came to work even during his Chemo at 75 years old, most every day. He was pretty tired most of that time. He passed away at 78, leaving me to run the business. I remember walking around the office early in the morning, before anyone was there. I could hear his voice, words of advise. Things I already knew, but we had rehashed over and over during our 10 years working together almost every day. He too loved running the business.

So that's the long answer. I am here to stay, as long as I have support from the factories, customers and a little luck.

BTW: Would you guys be mad if I dropped the SD40-2 for something more popular? After all this time we only have 190 reservations, only 1/2 of what is needed.  What could the new diesel be that many want?

Scott Mann

We're happy to read you will be around! For myself, I plan to keep purchasing your offerings not only because they are top-notch, but because you are great to work with. Also, it is a bonus to be able to conduct business with friends.

I like the idea of an SD40-2 run, but at half, maybe something like the Siemens Charger would get more interest? I'd also love to see the SD70ACe-T4 made.

Chris

Well, way back when, I suggested a GP40-2 might do better, but probably not much better.  We've also discussed the new Amtrak Chargers, to go along with the Amfleet and Viewliner cars but that got zero interest.  I don't think the Dash 9s or E60s will fare much better, but I hope I am wrong, I could use several Dash9 chassis for my MTH/Lionel ES44s.  This is good for my finances.  It's also why Midwestern has a bucketload of my reservations.  

Hi Scott,

With 190 reservations, what would the SD40-2 have to cost to have a production run?

Great to hear! Any thoughts on "re-runs" instead of "new-runs"?

As for the SD40-2 I would have loved to see the CP rail two flag scheme. Was Huge here in the north east. CP is 90% of what we see here in upstate NY.  Doesn't exactly exist in O scale.

Hey Scott: Got the new LED lights you sent and already installed, they do look nice and the "flicker free" feature is very  much welcomed.

As for the SD40-2, yes, drop the project. As was mentioned above, having too many projects might be mudding up the waters in terms of reservations.

I have no opinion on what makes a project popular or not, (I would have thought the SD40-2 was a pretty sure bet) but it might be time to dust off some of the old models and dare I say, start to remake some of the more popular choices.

From a business point of view, Chevy did not stop making Corvettes because they feed the demand. Improvements were made, new customers entered the market and technology marched on.

In your case, many of your iconic models are more than 20 years old. New customers, new technology and quite frankly, very limited product is available on the secondary market. You and your staff can figure out what might be a good project based on past numbers, current secondary market availability and how new technology and manufacturing techniques might bring an old(er) project to market that would be in demand.

Charlie

Scott,

As I mentioned in an email a few weeks ago, with the impending closure of MTH, I'm looking to your company for my future purchases. I've previously suggested the New York Central K-Class Pacific in this thread and would also be interested in small steam engines such as a 2-6-0 and 4-6-0 (maybe even generic) if they are economically feasible. As for diesels, I prefer the smaller ones such as the GP7/9 and F3, which I already have on order. Continued best wishes for success to you and Sunset...

MELGAR

Hate to see the plug pulled on such a popular engine for the real railroads that spanned a wide era right up to and including today.   Plus, it is a model that has been so poorly done in 3 Rail and nothing available in 2R.  How about a little more advertising from Scott on the 3r and 2r forums at the least?

-Crank

I will add my (2) cents.

I am pretty much thru with buying any new Lionel engines, steam or diesel. I am frankly tired of hoping for a model that is not broken or not working out of the box. 7 out of my last 10 Lionel engines had to go in for warranty work immediately or got sent back to the supplier. With MTH gone and Atlas back orders 3 years and waiting.......

I only plan to purchase 3rd Rail products from now on. That being said, I feel the price equals the quality.

Donald

I just put in a reservation for a Norfolk southern one

@EMD posted:

Hi Scott,

With 190 reservations, what would the SD40-2 have to cost to have a production run?

For an estimate take $200K (that's the minimum for one or a thousand) and divide it by the number of models. So for 200 models $1K each.  And that's for 2020.  The Chinese government will give workers their 10-20% raise next year so next year it will be $220K or more.

And oh, for those I know are thinking it, that minimum for making them in the US is ~$500K in 2020.  Scott has already tried that route.

hmmmm what to ask for in place of the sd40-2? maybe something to go with those beautiful misouri pacific cars he is issuing. along with the other roads using like santafe, atlantic coast line, emd demonstrator, florida east coast, chicago & northwestern, rock island, union pacific. if not that, then something to go with the m&p cars he is issuing.