2016 Greenberg Price Drops

-Market dilution by the vast assortment of new product available today.

-Passing of the Fifties generation of train lovers.

-Newer generation, I have read, is not as interested in collecting "anything" (even trains) as much as previous generations.

-Too many other attractive electronic distractions.

-Decline of "hobbies" in general.

-Decline of club-joining in general.

I may be one example of part of what TrainRMe stated above? I was a child of the fifties with an O gauge train and just re-entered the hobby about 4 years ago. At that time I started out to go with conventional, but after seeing the modern command control systems, and the selection of product with the details they have today, I was hooked on the modern equipment and never looked back. Personally I have now lost all desire for any of the older trains, the new modern ones are what does it for me.

 

Edit: I should have added that when I was considering getting back into the hobby and looking at conventional sets, discovering command control and the new detailed train offerings is what actually put me over the hump and got be to actually purchase something. Got an MTH starter set and ordered DCS about a week later. Until then I was just thinking about it all, the modern equipment is what really made the sale. That got me to wanting a train set instead of just looking at them.

I have to agree with TrainsRMe & rtr12. I grew up with dad's trains from the 20's & 50's. When I started buying my own trains it was the 70's and continued into the 80's. I one point I had every postwar operating accessories but with life I faced some major changes and sold off a lot of trains that I had. Then in 03' I got back into buying trains. And there started a renewed interest in trains. And also my becoming interested in command control. So my taste swung around to having all modern equipment. Once again I now have all of the operating accessories but they are all modern. Most of the trains that I now buy are scale trains, with the exception of some postwar classics especially the ones with TMCC. And I did make a very rare exception to buying a few postwar engines that my dad had which I still have but they are now in reserve status.

 

So even though I grew up in the 50's & 60's my tastes have grown into the hi tech world of trains. And I must say that I have not had a layout in my home for about 18 years now. I did set up a small display at my booth at York one year it 3'6" x 8' and it was right after Lionel brought out Legacy. On this small layout I had a oval with one siding and I had the most fun operating 2 Legacy engines at the same time that I can tell you that there is no going back for me.

 

Do they still publish price guides?
I haven't looked at one in years.

I agree.  I started collecting again two years ago and went for the trains of my childhood. I ending up buying  the postwar engines.  Then I saw Mr Muffins post on the Monon and living on a old Monon siding I had to have it. After running it with dcs I began looking for more. After the Big Boy with legacy, my 773 (1950 version) that I hunted all over for just didn't seem that special.  I haven't run a post war engine since.  I just purchased the scale Texas special and compared it to my postwar Texas special. 

See picture which would you pick?

 

I was just thinking about selling my postwar collection, given my luck it makes sense that the prices are dropping!!! 

Another possible explanation is that those most likely to want PW are WWII baby boomers and have probably already acquired whatever specific pieces they wanted which means that the market for sales to those folks is already saturated--they already have the PW items they want or had them and sold them on for one reason or another which was and is my personal experience--resulting in more supply of PW items than buyers for them.

I agree with Carl.  I see the postwar prices going down.  Years ago when I started to go to York, prices seemed high for postwar.  As all the newer trains came along, postwar is selling for less.  I know good clean postwar will still be valueable.  Many of us got our start with postwar.  I always enjoy watching a video of a postwar layout.

Price increases was so 1980's anyways.  Consistently lower prices on PW has persisted through 2 recessions.  To accelerate the decline, along came the internet and that auction site.  What was once rare became common place through mass exchange of information..  These days can be blamed on any number of the reasons already mentioned.  It not only involves PW trains but a vast array of collectibles.  An easy prediction is that prices will again increase once these things become true antiques...once they turn 100.

 

Price guides give average prices realized at auction for the same item in like condition.  Handy for insurance purposes.  Rarely do they take into account private transactions since they have no way, or business, of knowing.  Basically, if you paid price guide, you paid too much.  Then again, I'd guess that some very serious collectors still pay above price guide estimates on truly rare items in pristine condition.

 

Bruce

   When I find myself at a local train show. The Greenberg's Price Guide, will get the conversation started between the seller & buyer. That is what the book can do.

Gary

• Cheers from The

I'm ok with the prices coming down, but I'm a buyer and not a seller at this point!

Same here, Andrew.  I can finally afford some previously unattainable pieces.

IMHO the Greenberg price guide has been over inflated for years. In 2012 I found a very nice used Lionel 6-18010 PRR Turbine at York. No price. I asked the seller and he whipped out his trusty Greenberg guide. Finger scrolling down the page.... $1200. Whoa! I did ask if he could do any better. His answer was "the price in the book is the price in the book, take it or leave it"...

 

I left it... If your interest is collecting, I do respect you. But when it comes to pricing I have come to depend upon SOLD prices for Completed Listings on eBay. That is an actual price paid for the item. I do look for multiple transactions to ensure one sale isn't a single low-ball exception.

But the one on the left is an E-unit and the Postwar is an F3 - no?

Sure do.  They're useful for manufacture dates, relative price between items, scarcity, etc., especially when on the go, for those folks who don't carry on their person electronic helpers capable of retrieving such data.

And you haven't missed a thing.  In all likelihood, the Greenberg priceguides HAD to reduce prices -- for no other reason than to maintain some semblance of credibility.  There's just no way modern-day sales were ever gonna see Greenberg prices on a good day -- much less on a regular train show day.  The Greenberg prices have been living in a fantasy world for a couple of decades now, and as such outlived their usefulness.    Perhaps the newest editions may now become more relevant again.

 

David

  I agree with Dave on the grossly inflated prices. I just cannot understand their motivation for such blatant misrepresentation of prices. The guides have long claimed pricing derived from "large east coast train meets". Yet, I have never encountered Greenberg prices in reality, anywhere, whether it is a hobby shop, train meet, or online. Another troubling aspect of Greenberg's inflated pricing, are the vast numbers of transactions which have been encumbered or scuttled by the guide. Unknowledgeable sellers, trusting the veracity of the Greenberg guide, are unable to come to terms with market prices, and hold out indefinitely. And the unmotivated sellers at train meets lug the same wares from show to show, waiting for the day the Greenberg dream comes true. Doing some basic research shows the decline in prices. Here are some representative examples:

 

Item           1987 Guide (adjusted to 2015 dollars)     Current (2016 Guide) 

746 (C-5)          $519 ----------------------------        $250

2242(C-5)         $363 ---------------------------          $260

2329(C-5)         $312 --------------------------           $150

2360(C-5)         $520 -------------------------           $400

2343(C-5)         $312 --------------------------         $175

 

And my favorite, the winner: Girl's 2037-500 with 1130T tender:

Price in 1987 (converted to current dollars)  $2287.32

Price in 2016          $245.00

Percent decline: 89 percent

When I start my search for something, I always take a look at ebay's sold auction history.  I think it is a great indicator of current demand and ultimately price.  eBay...can I use that word here?

I haven't used a guide since the smart phone era.  I check the auction sites and go from there.  It's hard to argue with the data.  I realize some dealers aren't that interested in selling. In that case you have to move on.  That's why they call them train SHOWS.

The only price that's gone up is the price of the Greenberg book!  The LIST PRICE of the 2016 pocket price guide is up $2.00, or 10%, over the 2015 version.  But dealers at York and other shows discount them.

 

Bill