Postwar Prices?

In every hobby I'm involved in, there have been a lot of these can-you-believe-what-that-sold-for threads lately, and most are based on ebay. The consensus seems to be that ebay is a poor gauge for the market because:

1. Some of the prices are asking prices, not selling prices. Ebay is loaded with people who think everything in their attic is made of solid gold.  Craigslist is even worse. 

2. Bidding wars are common between people with more money (or testosterone) than brains, and this often results in exorbitant selling prices for common items. Once that happens, other sellers start setting crazy asking prices on their common items. 

3. Shills are not unheard of. The savvy ebay guys can look at the bidding on an item and spot whether shills were involved, but I don't know how to do it.

4. The lack of in-person meets may be a factor, but how much is that offset by a lot of people undergoing economic uncertainty and becoming more reluctant to spend as they used to?

I have found on You Tube sites that sell O Gauge for rather good prices, for the buyer, that is.  One, "O gauge Trains Buy and Sell".  On another, "Lionel & O Gauge, New & Old", especially for those in Texas, a couple East of Denton are selling a lot of PW that belong to his father.  They recently started opening old boxes in the garage and have found a lot of used PW.  Includes 2383 AA, 6475, many 6465, 455, 334, 6473, 6456-75, 6437, 3451, 6519, 6463, 3424, 2023 AA, 2521, 2522, 2523, 60, 736 w 2046, 2033, 229 AB, 2056, 2037,  a ZW and many other trans, lots of track and mics. accessories. Some Marx and other... close to 100 pieces total not including track.  Thought of getting myself, but cannot make the trip.  Very well worth looking into, and price is right... negotiable.  Lionel.. New & Old... Amanda Young and was posted on July 4th. Is used, but most PW is...….

Jesse   TCA  12-68275

@laming posted:

Ricky:

Could be on the "no train meets".

Lou:

Checking for completed auctions for 2065's indicates decent condition engines only going in the $60-$75 range. BUT, you need to add shipping on top of that ($15 or so). So you win an engine, now you've got to find the right tender and win it, too.  Just sucks to see the engines/tenders split up in the attempt to extract more for them. Sometimes the ploy is pretty obvious, for the same seller is selling the correct tender in a separate auction, most times listed right below the engine!

Should I get serious about acquiring a 2065 or something similar, I will do my absolute best to avoid the "splitter" sellers.

Andre

 

Andre,,

Splitting engines from tenders on eBay has been going on for at least 10 years. While sellers are free to do what they wish, I detest the practice. Back when I was actively adding to my post war fleet, I would see it all the time. Especially when the engine had the more "desirable" tender like the 12-wheel streamline tender or the beautiful cast metal tenders on the 773 or 726. I avoided those auctions at all costs.

Mike

@Joe Connor posted:

2. Bidding wars are common between people with more money (or testosterone) than brains, and this often results in exorbitant selling prices for common items.

Or maybe, some of us really want an item we've been searching the 'net for, for a long time.   We know the items exist, but I would like ot buy this item now.  I see one pop on eBay, and go for it.   Sure, I could wait around and wait for others to pop up, which they will, but it's okay, I can afford this one, so I place a high bid.   High enough I figure anyone else most likely won't.   Yeah, maybe I pay a lot more than what most would pay for said item, but it doesn't matter.

I'm happy and the seller's happy.

It has nothing to do with "more money than brains," which is actually kind of insulting.

Same thing happens with what I sell (not train related).    Several of my auctions have gone well over what I wanted to get.  They buyer is happy, and I'm happy.

@franktrain posted:

Here's a completed auction yesterday for a postwar Alco Santa Fe 223. Anyone know why such a huge price?   

I've got my own ideas on some of these out-of-the-world prices on auction sites. Remember Walter and Skyler White's car wash on Breaking Bad? I believe a lot of money laundering occurs on auction sites, not just car washes, nail salons, and other cash businesses.

@ezmike posted:

Andre,,

 

Splitting engines from tenders on eBay has been going on for at least 10 years. While sellers are free to do what they wish, I detest the practice. Back when I was actively adding to my post war fleet, I would see it all the time. Especially when the engine had the more "desirable" tender like the 12-wheel streamline tender or the beautiful cast metal tenders on the 773 or 726. I avoided those auctions at all costs.

Mike

I'm on the sell side of the business, and I find that I can usually get more selling the locomotive and tender separately.  I but the stuff that is flowing out of attics and basements as older folks downsize and need to do something with those old trains that have been gathering dust and rust for 70 years.  I buy, clean, repair and sell them.

I recently sold a 226E tender for $250 and the locomotive for $225.  I'd have been lucky to get $350 selling them together.  Right now looking at eBay recent sales I see that I could sell a 685 for $100 and the 6026W tender frame and whistle fully serviced for $50.  Locomotive and tender together have been bringing $100 to $130.  Add to that with patience I can get $10 to 20 for the tender shell.  So why leave money on the table selling ;locomotive and tender together.

Those are typical examples.  If you want to make money, you do what the market is telling you, and this market is saying sell them separately.

Also bear in mind that many of the PW locomotives now on the market have the wrong tender.  Back in the 50's and 60's people who had several locomotives and were just interested in operating and didn't care about the matching or did what looked good to them.  Now we are seeing those mismatches in the market.

Rusty,

When you look at a price,  of course it instantly "becomes" high.  That's just a form of  quantum entanglement intruding on our peaceful little corner of the universe.

Hal

@mlavender480 posted:

Prices seem to be up across the board.  I’m in several Facebook groups for buying and selling HO trains, and I’ve noticed an uptick in asking prices over the last couple months.  “Good deals” are less common than when I joined the groups a year or so ago, with many sellers asking list price or above for “barely used” trains.  As for why, I have no idea, maybe it’s just the secondary market catching up to the rising prices of new items, maybe it’s everyone being stuck at home and they’re willing to pay more?  

I agree about the current price trend.  Last week I listed an ZW for $165 and it sold the second day.  six months ago I was happy selling them for #125.

Wow.

I've been spending a bit of time surfing eBay to see price points for various PW pieces that I've owned in the past and would like to re-acquire.

Lesson: This big dummy shouldn't have sold off! (Especially at the prices I sold them!)

So much for the "PW prices are in the tank!" whining/crying from the "investor" types! (Never was an "investor" type, I liked to run and enjoy the stuff.)

Appears to be a sellers market right now.

Andre

Probably RELIABLE auction houses like Stout's offer more quality PW engines and correct tenders than the usual suspects on the internet. Of course, beware of shills! The prices may also be higher but you get what you pay for.

Art:

Well, this much is for sure: So much for "Boomers are aging out of the hobby and there will be nobody that wants these old trains flooding the shrinking market so they'll be dirt cheap for us surviving Boomers that want 'em" market dynamic I've been believing! 

Andre

Seems that theory is somewhat flawed!  :-(

@Tinplate Art posted:

Seems that theory is somewhat flawed!  :-(

I'm beginning to think that, too!

That flawed market dynamic was going to help me become a PW Mogul by acquiring any PW I wanted in such a flooded market at dirt cheap prices... but that dream is fading now!

Andre

For the record,I've been finding a lot of bargains on "Our favorite online auction". They're there if you really search and hunt around.I spend at least one hour each day looking through the listings. Before the current "situation" began a few months ago, I had attended several "in-person" train auctions (Not Stout or Toy Trains Other Stuff) around the US and brought home a LOT of trains at 1/5-1/3 of what they typically sell for online when compared to verified,completed auctions. The fact of the matter is this: There is an verifiable overall downward trend in prices for pre-1990 trains. As more large collections of these trains come to market and the number of active buyers continues to drop,the average prices will continue to drop overall. Common PW items will drop faster,high end like new PW items much less or flat. Maybe even some (Rare boxed PW sets) will continue to increase.

If we could predict the stock market we would all be rich and if we could predict the Pre War train market would know when to buy or sell the trains.  Those darn markets are unpredictalble.

Charlie

Premium condition and original boxes usually command higher prices in the postwar market.

Web Train prices may be rising from lots of folks working from home.  They surf the net, ebay, etc. and see more and bid more without the work computer geeks spying on them or the boss dropping by their at work desk, office.

Charlie

@laming posted:

I just allowed myself to go look on eBay to daydream a bit and take a look at any 2065's that were listed. Holy moly! Some of the prices are waaay up there!

The deals are out there. Timing is everything.

Timing is the thing.  Also patience, lots of it, especially selling stuff as parts.  I've waited three or four months for a sale.  If the price is right, anything will eventually sell.

Okay... enough of this. Break it up and move along. Nothing to see here. Y'all go on back to your modern trains and leave this junky PW stuff be. It's too crude, not scale... all that jazz. You really don't want it.

Andre