Thoughts on BTO as we enter 2015...

David

Have not been sold out on any selection thus far but what does get me is how far off a maker can get in determining its ship date. A while back I ordered the MTH 0-8-8-0 Erie Angus Camelback. Once the original delivery date was set there were delays that lasted over a year.  And on a current MTH order, I am awaiting delivery of an Amtrak AEM Electric, originally slated for delivery in early 2004 now slated for arrival in February 2015.

I feel that more accurate shipping estimate and actual on time delivery would help be budget my train spend as I find myself restricting my selection of new catalog items when I am still awaiting delivery from multiple prior catalogs

My BTO on the legacy remake of the Alaska SD70mac was pushed back on delivery. But, the BTO works for everyone, so I have no issues with the process.

It reminds me of a new stock offering. Get low markup from the initial offering, a quick pop on the secondary at open, then we'll see what happens when the market settles.

I think BTO is fine.  I understand that given the realities of the market Lionel and MTH want to be able to manage their inventory (and capital outlay) by getting a better understanding of demand before making the product.  It is a species of the same issue that RMT has (not justifying the pre-pay, btw, just making the point) in terms of managing your business's capital prudently.  As a customer, I want these firms to stay in business to continue to offer the great variety we have today, and I am perfectly find with BTO or similar if it accomplishes that end.

The one criticism I would have of BTO is that in my limited experience Lionel still cannot seem to get a grip on delivery schedules.  To the extent that BTO should give the firms a better grip on demand, and the scheduling of manufacturing (by weeding out stuff for which there is little or no demand), this is simply bad service and has to stop.  Early in 2013 we ordered a locomotive BTO for my son's birthday.  As of November, then December, it hadn't arrived and delivery had once again been pushed to the spring of 2015.  We cancelled the order and ordered a similar version from a different manufacturer that was available.  But that is a lost sale for Lionel and a slightly bad taste left in my mouth, which I dont' want, and I wouldn't think they want it either.

That's a long way of saying I am OK to accept some risk on my part, as a customer, as part of the new realities of the O gauge hobby.  That being said, at some point, if the manufacturers know people want an item, and they've ordered it, and it still cannot be made in any type of timely fashion, you start to feel like a chump and it undermines your confidence in the competence of the firms.

I had a pre-order on a MTH N&W 2-8-0 that was essentially a BTO item. This was pre-ordered the same week I received my MTH catalog; well before any deadlines. My pre-order was with one of the very large online LHS. After enduring the 2 year MTH hiatus for Steam engines, the "Shipped" announcement was posted here by a different dealer.

I contacted my dealer and received assurance that they had received their shipment and my order would be shipped out in the next week. The following weekend I saw this item "Buy It Now" on eBay for less than my preorder price from this same dealer. I didn't bid, because I had received assurance from them that mine was on the way. When I still hadn't received my engine following another week, I called again. This time I was told that this item was "out of stock" and they did not expect to receive any more. 

Thankfully, Pat's Trains got me one. My future preorders including my MTH 611 J are with Pat's Trains. 

Preorders can be worthless if a dealer fails to fulfill the order. I am also grateful that other dealers do order some items for their own stock!

Gilly

The BTO program takes all the preorder guesswork off Lionel and places it where it belongs with dealers.

The problem I have is that Lionel has not backed it up with a reliable product locator program so folks can find it after it hits the shelves.

Joe 

I would consider the Lionel BTO program for 2014 a complete success. The only hic cup had nothing to do with the Lionel BTO system.

As has been discussed over and over again in other threads, this is nothing new to our hobby as other manufacturers have ben following this system for many years.

Based upon 2014, I would expect this to be business as usual for Lionel as we move forward.

I feel Lionel had to do it.

No one wants to over produce.

However, I always felt Lionel was "feast or famine", in how they release products.

For example, there is a flood of RTR sets...they are all over the place.

Makes you wonder if no one is getting into the hobby as a beginner.

Thus, dealers are stuck with many of these RTR sets, and of course Lionel is too, because they sell them on their website.

Yet, I cannot find a Lionel Legacy Santa Fe F3 Warbonnet...something Lionel always had in the past.

Back to BTO, although I understand why they are doing it, I also feel it is a double edge sword.

For example, on one hand, they mostly build what is ordered, without any mystery about how much stock they will be stuck with that doesnt sell.

However, I wonder how many sales are lost from buyers who were late to the game?

Then again, whats the difference between having customers pre-order to determine what will be made versus BTO?

I think it is more of a mitigation of production issues, i.e. inability to get product out the door.

Regardless, over the next few years, BTO will increase at Lionel regardless, as long as China has issues getting products made, and will spread to other product lines and even other companys.

Lione Chief will become more and more and take over most of Lionels product offerings.

Frankly, if BTO can get a product out more quickly and better made I am all for it, versus the mystery of the current system.

Have I purchased a BTO engine? NO?

So far, too expensive for me.

Will I in the future? Probably, depending on the engine, as I have most of all I want except for a Legacy Santa F3 Warbonnet or MTH PS3 Warbonnet F3, and a NYC Hudson.

Why Lionel cannot make a Legacy Santa Fe Warbonet F3 is beyond me, I cannot find them anywhere, and dont even know if they even made one.

The BTO program is a success for me and Lionel and their dealers.  Although I was on the fence about ordering a Bigboy, I didn't.  I am grateful for the hobby shops that did put up their money and purchased extra engines.  After seeing this great piece of engineering I had to have it and was not let down.  Thank the GUYZ that run our hobby shops, for in having the insight to ordering extras of these engines that we as hobbyist like to play with. I hope this will carry on in future for me, because not all the time am I moved to make a commitment on a product at first glance.

I really like it but I don't like it to. Some times I like to see something before I buy it .Its like the s3 I didn't think anything about it when they where made now it's one of my favorite steamers. Same goes for the nkp berk.. I missed the boat Owell. 

I don't mind pre-ordering or BTO at all. I have been getting 80% of my train items this way since re-entering the hobby about 4 years ago. I have pre-ordered almost everything from my LHS and had no problems. They also give me a slightly better price for pre-orders too. Most orders have been for MTH items, only because Lionel has made very few items in my chosen road name and paint scheme.

I believe pre-ordering is a very good way to help insure your favorite item is produced in the first place. It shows the manufacturer there is enough interest in the item to make it worthwhile to go ahead with production. OTOH, getting few pre-orders for an item shows the manufacturers there is not enough interest in the product and leads to the item being cancelled and not produced at all. The number of pre-orders may also have an impact on how many extras of an item a distributor or dealer orders. With ten pre-orders they may order 1 extra, with a hundred pre-orders, they may order 10 or 20 extra anticipating a higher demand for the item.

I don't blame the manufacturers at all for this, who wants to have thousands of dollars worth of trains just sitting around that no one is buying? I don't think our manufacturers, distributors or dealers can afford to much of this as they are all small companies. When this does happen it drives up costs on the next round of items as they have to pay for the costs some way. It's definitely in the best interests of all parties for them to all stay in business and keep manufacturing, distributing and selling trains.  

Pre-ordering for those that want to see the item before purchasing can be good as well. If the item is in high demand and you decide you don't like it you can probably sell it quickly and even possibly make a buck or two, VL BB is an example, see pricing on ebay as an example, even some dealers are selling them there for much more than they did with their pre-order sales.

I have also missed placing a pre-order on a few MTH items. It was items I missed or didn't find out about before the pre-order date. Have not tried this with a Lionel item yet. So far I have been able to get everything I missed like this, but I imagine there will be a time when I am not so lucky.

The shipping dates have all been slipping since I have been back in the hobby. To those that have been around a lot longer, it might be annoying? To me it is just the way things are and I just expect it with every item. I will have to add that there have been a few MTH items I had ordered lately that have actually arrived very close to the originally posted ship dates. It could be that things are improving in this department? 

Limited but...

When Atlas O makes a freight car I want I order all available road numbers.  Knowing the quality and many are updates to previous issues so I'm not worried about what I'm getting.  Given the road name they usually get made.  If I don't then finding all different road numbers after the fact is a real pain.

I was dissapointed when MTH cancelled the UP 4-8-2.  It was new tooling so I waited instead of preordering. It was cancelled. Not enough orders I guess.

I would still have to judge on a case by case basis if it is something new.

I will say that I like what Scott Mann and 3rd Rail do when they reach out for feedback and provide technical drawings.  I also appreciate what Lionel did recently with the info on the new scale hopper cars.  That kind of communication helps us get what we are willing to pay for and helps the company produce a product that generates revenue.

Pretty much "buisness as usual" IMO. The dealers already know what they can or can't sell or are willing to risk in "extra stock", based on the popularity of a given item.

There are still some extras available for those who waited.

Outside of the VL bigboy, prices are pretty much the same in many cases. I.e. street prices on the berks and m1s is about the same if not a few bucks cheaper than the previous offering several years ago.

"Out of box defects/failures" seem to be holding steady.

And as far as the shipping schedule accuracy goes.... thats buiness as usual too.

Much ado about nothing if you ask me.