Is this a bad time to be entering the Model Train scene?

I share your feelings to a point.  I got back into the hobby about 6 months ago after a 20+ year hiatus (and it was a 20+ year hiatus before that (1960s).  I only have postwar steam locomotives that I can maintain.  I'd like to buy a diesel from this century, and have a thread about what to buy.  You can find it here.  However, reading those answers and other threads about current products is making the decision hard, not to mention the soaring prices and availability.  I'm furthered hampered by the lack of a basement (Houston, TX), and don't want to put it up in the garage since we do need to put both cars in at times to protect from hailstorms.  I currently have my layout on the floor in one of our 3 spare bedrooms (empty nesters) and am negotiating with the wife on how I can put in a permanent layout.

I am happy to see people on this forum that aren't all baby boomers, since they will be the ones that can keep things going.

What I’ve been doing is saving up all year to buy a premium Lionel train. I get one a year. The prices go up every year but this year they really went up. A descent locomotive is between 12-18 hundred. I have no more room for starter sets so I’m just buying locomotives now.

@Merlin, just as another reference point, the cost of chlorine tablets for a pool has increased by a factor of 3 in 3 years time.

Yeah.... thats why I started buying motive power and rolling stock over the last 20 years.... I started in my middle 20's and have added a few things every year. Now like some, it is just 1 item per year. I am now looking to invest in a track system and switches. I will turn 45 this summer... I always figured I was planning for the future one item at a time. Now.... I am afraid that once and item breaks... I won't be able to fix it. Since I don't have a permanent layout yet... I have not had a need to service my engines because they all have low run times.. usually only run around the holidays, so I have not had much if anything to repair. A little oil here and there and some fresh smoke fluid is all that was needed and my engines have run well every year. I don't have an inventory of smoke units or resistors or batting in my inventory.... maybe I should look to add some? I guess I figured MTH and Lionel were in it for the long haul.... Times change and we are certainly in trying times.... I was shocked when I heard that MTH was going to end... I am happy that at least for now, they are still around... even if on a small scale. I just don't know for how long.

Tom

It depends on what you want to buy and how much you want to spend.

This hobby is more than just buying the latest and greatest novelties.

You can build and run a superb layout without buying a single new item.  There is no need to feed the Consumerasaurus Rex.

That said, I have noted some stiffening in the market for older equipment.  C6/C7 Standard Gauge is trending up a bit as are boxed Marx sets.  MPC doesn't seem to be moving up yet though I suspect the recent threads here will put some pressure on that market.  LTI and early LLC era Lionel is still kinda soft.  A lot of NIB Atlas out there but for not far enough under MSRP for me.  I haven't been watching Postwar or Prewar O Lionel or used MTH, so someone else will need to comment on them.

If you are willing to dive into the secondary markets, the waters are very inviting.

With the sheer amount of products available on the secondary market, I wouldn’t absolutely concern myself with “ it has to be new “.  Plus, the plethora of talented masters on this very forum can help you either upgrade or repair anything that goes on O gauge track ……if you’re not sure, the first thing to do is establish contact with the who’s who in the industry and make those relationships so you have avenues to go down……many masters on this forum upgrade even up to Legacy standards, so I’d say no, it’s not a bad time to jump in the Frey,…..sometimes deals can be had on sturdy, well built early 2000’s models made in Korea that can be made into darn near bullet proof Legacy locomotives by masters Sid & Bruk. Alex M, and GRJ ( John ) can handle ERR upgrades, and George ( GGG ) is the man when it comes to anything MTH DCS upgrades,….they’re are some other techs, and sorry if I’ve missed you guys ….Alan, Lou, etc,…..stay tuned to this forum, ask questions, and absorb as much as you can, and you’ll see this place right here has it’s thumb on the pulse of everything O gauge …..😉

Pat

I’m a baby boomer and my smaller, 2-train layout has been built out for over 10 years now. I have all the engines and rolling stock I’ll ever need and the layout is pretty much run by the grandkids when they come over. However, as they get older, they’re spending less and less time running trains and more time playing pool on the adjacent billiards table or watching movies in the TV room. So, I having a feeling the train room’s days may be numbered.

From what I have been reading and hearing this year, O scale model railroading is slowly fading. If I were younger and just getting into the hobby now with the way things are in O scale, I think I would go the HO scale route. It’s been the prevalent scale since the mid-1960s, has more available in engines, rolling stock and control systems, and is less expensive than O. Also, no lingering quality control issues and appears it’ll be around for quite some time. But, to each his own. 😉

I think it's as good a time as any to get into the hobby. I just have a few points...

As far as quality; nobody makes a post saying "I got my engine today and it works perfectly perfect!". So there's a bit of an issue there because people only post when there is a problem. Quality problems are real and the numbers are too high, but I doubt that receiving damaged products is the rule.

There is still some form of MTH. But Menards is on the rise and looks to be affordable. Plus Atlas and 3rd Rail are still around and making great products. I won't touch price discussion though. I can't help people understand the world as it is.

We didn't even talk about the great used products out there! All kinds of good stuff can be had. I have had great luck with using locomotives and rolling stock.

It sounds like you're worried that 3 rail O-scale is dying off. Maybe some of the companies are but new companies will rise up to take their place because there is demand from the consumer. I wouldn't worry at all. OGR says the hobby is growing based on forum traffic but Youtube and Facebook have shown me first hand that the hobby is probably going to be ok. There are loads of model railroad channels out there and many of them are 3 rail O-scale. I think there are issues in the hobby but I don't see them as life threatening.

All Aboard……It is never too late…Or as George Custer said, “ I just don’t understand, they were friendly at the dance last night”…..

Tom,

I will try to address a few of your points.

First, I guess I would say that we have no control over the times in which we live.  We don't get those types of choices.

That said, there are still a great many options out there.  Over the past 20 years or so, there has been a large excess of trains produced by a number of manufacturers - Lionel, MTH, K-Line, Weaver, Williams, AtlasO.  Many of these are still out there on the secondary market.  And while recent prices for new products have "gone stupid", there are a few things to remember:

1. "New" does not always mean "better".  Some would argue that many of these newer trains are much more fragile.
2. There is still too much product chasing too little money.  Prices will return to lower levels as boomers leave the hobby and more product becomes available.  Look for estate sales.
3. A vacuum in the market tends to get filled in by competitors.  A number of companies have gone away, but their products are still available (K-Line for one) on the secondary market.  And their products and tooling have been sold to other companies that continue to produce them.

Both Lionel and MTH have made some self-serving choices regarding parts and service, as far as I'm concerned.  As to service, find a local hobby shop or service center (they are still out there) and patronize them.  Use this website and others to ask about competent train repair places.

I agree that with MTH becoming a niche player, Lionel might boost their prices (and profits) and ignore quality.  It's happened before and is not uncommon for companies in their situation.  The best consumer response is to be more selective in what you buy.  Of my own locomotive fleet (13 engines if you count A-A as 2), only 2 engines have been bought new from the manufacturer right out of the catalog.  The rest are used or new old stock.  And all (with the exception of the new A-As) have been purchased for bargain prices.  Even today, I think I could double the size of this fleet at a reasonable price.

I do not feel that we are all in trouble if both Lionel and MTH go away.  The market will adjust and more competition will appear.

Rule 1 in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy is:  "Don't Panic".

George

I buy a vast majority of my stuff used, though I occasionally dip my toe into the new train market as well.  It's never a "bad" time to do something you want to do...

Does anyone still repair TV sets?

@wb47 posted:

Does anyone still repair TV sets?

Not sure if this is a trap, but yeah. They are still repaired. Repaired in this case means replacing parts usually.

I alos have been getting most of my stuff from the secondary market with the exception of a coupe og=f MTH Locomotives I have been picking up MPC Era stuff both rolling stock and motive power. I agree with the folks that have commented so far, the hobby is healthy and strong step into the water. Track system Menards is producing the old Tin Plate track and there is a lot of that and the add ons like switches era also out there.

@BillYo414 posted:

I think it's as good a time as any to get into the hobby. I just have a few points...

As far as quality; nobody makes a post saying "I got my engine today and it works perfectly perfect!". So there's a bit of an issue there because people only post when there is a problem. Quality problems are real and the numbers are too high, but I doubt that receiving damaged products is the rule.

There is still some form of MTH. But Menards is on the rise and looks to be affordable. Plus Atlas and 3rd Rail are still around and making great products. I won't touch price discussion though. I can't help people understand the world as it is.

We didn't even talk about the great used products out there! All kinds of good stuff can be had. I have had great luck with using locomotives and rolling stock.

It sounds like you're worried that 3 rail O-scale is dying off. Maybe some of the companies are but new companies will rise up to take their place because there is demand from the consumer. I wouldn't worry at all. OGR says the hobby is growing based on forum traffic but Youtube and Facebook have shown me first hand that the hobby is probably going to be ok. There are loads of model railroad channels out there and many of them are 3 rail O-scale. I think there are issues in the hobby but I don't see them as life threatening.

I agree with Bill. I'll add a point as well that is important to me. I'm in my mid 30s, and I'm rekindling the hobby after 20 years of hiatus since I was a kid "playing" with my Lionel trains. The technology is a big part of what is getting me back into the hobby. The advances in the high-end features, sounds, and control systems are very attractive. I would not be in the hobby if we were still chugging along with less feature rich trains - it wouldn't appeal to me. Everyone will have their own opinion on that, but as train buying transitions to newer/younger generations, I think that stuff is really important to keeping the interest up and at least at a high enough level to sustain the market we have. I also agree that the social media presence could be very good for the hobby - at the very least it provides another medium to keep people in the hobby connected and in ways, to give us something to do with our trains.

Answer: No.

Thank you all for helping me feel more at ease with the state and health of the hobby. I have a local train store near me, Sidetrack hobbies. I patronize them frequently... in fact I keep hearing Im one of the youngest customers. I love going in there. The owner is awesome and friendly and helpful. He has answered my questions always to the best of his knowledge. I guess watching that store downsize over the years along with everything else got me thinking that the hobby might be in trouble. I know Sidetrack doesn't plan on stocking Lionel going forward because of how expensive it has become. There is no used gear for sale there either.

Availability of parts, especially for recent items, concerns me.  Ditto for finding repair techs.  In my area, the main Lionel repair guy died a couple of years ago and the other one is well north of 80 in poor health, and the part guys aren't spring chickens either.  Many of our tech gurus on the forum are approaching or past retirement age - how long can they continue if we don't backfill with new blood?

The current situation where Lionel and MTH aren't making power supplies and control systems is unsustainable - who will buy trains that they can't run?

As others have noted, one can find used items at reasonable prices.  Tubular track has fallen out of favor, so it's available - best to get it at a meet, as shipping is a killer.

I'm more bullish on HO - the market is larger, stuff is available, and engines don't become $1500-2000 paperweights.

Yes it is. BUY GOLD

Interesting thread.  I got back into the hobby after 15+ year absence myself.  My son and daughter grew out of their ‘train phase” and I never finished the big layout in our basement.  Now that they are all grown up and out of the house, I’ve been getting back into it the last 2 1/2 years.   I share a lot of the concerns about whether the O scale/gauge hobby is dying out, but I’m intrigued by the new products and technological advances and stats from OGR magazine that indicate the hobby is healthy.  

I’m building a new layout concept: I’m modeling one road (ATSF) at one point in time (WW2) and one major location (New Mexico division); I still break down and buy the occasional magnificent Visionline engine or Golden Gate Depot train that doesn’t fit my profile (Vision line SP GS3 with GGD Daylight passenger cars), but I’m generally limiting my involvement to that one Hi-Rail project.  Will take me years to get it right, I’m sure.   And most of what I’ve purchased the last couple of years were things that match the profile that I missed between 2007 and today on the secondary market. I’ve also found a hobby shop that can fix issues on the older engines and rolling stock (and I’m learning to do it myself).

Seems like it’s a good time to get back into the hobby; the new tech and plethora of YouTube videos makes it easier to learn than I remember it being in the early 2000s when my kids were small.

Frankly, as good as any other time, maybe better.  Prices are no worse than they were in 1930 or 1955, corrected for inflation.  In fact, at the lower end, you can get LionChief locos for less than the equivalent locos/sets in 1955.  You can purchase new Menard's and some Lionel rolling stock for less than half of what a freight car cost in 1955, give or take, adjusted for inflation ($5 in 1955 versus 20-50 dollars now).

Lots of older equipment for sale at reasonable prices through dealers and auctions.  Lots of people who run small businesses repairing or upgrading both older and newer trains (listed above).

Lionel's quality is actually overall quite good, in my experience (literally dozens of purchases without a problem) with occasional lemons, but you can return those for refund or repair if you buy them new.  MTH is largely gone, but still producing some product from their retained tooling.  Lionel's future is much more likely to be long term, in my opinion, than MTH, but there is a new player in town with Menard's.   Atlas and 3rd Rail continue to produce trains, albeit not as full line train vendors at present.  Atlas may come back from the near dead now that they've invested in MTH tooling and licensed DCS.  Time will tell.  Menard's just released their first loco at prices less than locos sold for in 1955, corrected for inflation ($20 vs. $160) and these new locos have command and digital sound.  Products had many more defects in 1955 than they do now, at least as I remember things back then as a kid.

The only real negative is that local hobby shops are disappearing in many areas, which means you cannot see the product in person before purchasing and local repair/advice is thus harder to come by.  This is balanced by the availability of both older and new product from a plethora of on-line dealers at substantial savings from retail prices in many cases.  And getting advice on-line has never been easier, through this forum, for one major source.  The two major print magazines have big on-line presences although subscribers are way down in number.  Some people still subscribe nonetheless.  The case can be made that overall, the range of products, innovation and quality have never been higher in three rail O gauge.  Certainly there are more used products available than ever, due to the huge production in the 1950s and the period 1995 through present .

All  very valid posts

1. Mike wolf has retired and the MTH has been sold various parts going to various people and many auctions. There may be a person who will repair MTH but no longer factory warranty.

2.Lionelis still going making trains, etc but has limited parts in stock. check the new website for more info.

3.East Coast Trains has many new reproduced parts for Lionel. check their website.

4. When buying a new MTH item from a dealer, train show, etc. get a warranty from the dealer if something does not go out of the box. Also see if he can tell you if someone can repair if it poops out. Circuit boards  are hard to repair and will be costly.

5.Be careful when running trains using the old ZW and those transformers. The breakers are mechanical and are slow acting. With a newer train used a newer transformer as they have electronic breakers which act fast preventing board blow outs. I know as it happened to me.

6. Buy some trains, set up a layout and have a ball. A good time today for running trains and even collecting as prices are down.

I too was drawn back into the hobby by all the new "Bells and Whistles" that Lionel and MTH had to offer. The first time I heard a lionel engine startup and talk to me, I was hooked all over again. It was a huge leap from my Penn Flyer set from my youth. I know that you have to pay to play and that new doesn't always mean better. You have to take the good with the bad, as with anything in life. I know Ive just started to post here, but I already feel better... not only in that I don't feel as if I have waisted my money, and 2... I have a place to go to talk, get advice and learn. As stated earlier... the local hobby shops are going away... but at least it doesn't appear the hobby is going with them.

Tom

Godale3, many of your comments are simply hearsay. There is plenty of competition out there. Lionel raises prices because they can. I don’t believe that. MTH is still making trains. As a hobby, we buy items that are affordable to our budgets. If you continue to worry, as you are now doing, I don’t think you will ever enjoy this great hobby. Don’t let the naysayers ruin your excitement. The dealers say the market is good. Enjoy.

@Godale03 posted:

I guess watching that store downsize over the years along with everything else got me thinking that the hobby might be in trouble. I know Sidetrack doesn't plan on stocking Lionel going forward because of how expensive it has become. There is no used gear for sale there either.

I know a store that's expanding, and planning an even bigger expansion, Henning's Trains.   Not every train store is shrinking.

@romiller49 posted:

Godale3, many of your comments are simply hearsay. There is plenty of competition out there. Lionel raises prices because they can. I don’t believe that. MTH is still making trains. As a hobby, we buy items that are affordable to our budgets. If you continue to worry, as you are now doing, I don’t think you will ever enjoy this great hobby. Don’t let the naysayers ruin your excitement. The dealers say the market is good. Enjoy.

Lionel’s prices are what they are because it makes business sense based on their costs and intended profit margin. More importantly, Lionel’s prices are what they are because WE are willing to pay those prices.  Just look at the last catalog… orders were strong. How many big ticket BTOs from the last catalog have been canceled? I suspect not much.

Just be glad that Lionel is in business so we do have trains to buy!😉

I will echo what has already been said, i buy almost exclusively used.  There is value there especially if you are moderately handy.  Another thing to consider is the aging group of us.  There has been and will be an ever increasing number of estate sales.  There will be treasures to be found for decades.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

I know a store that's expanding, and planning an even bigger expansion, Henning's Trains.   Not every train store is shrinking.

Must have been due to the incredibly large Base-3 sales! 😉

Never a bad time to run trains, except in the 1400’s when they did not have them….

As above from others: don't buy new, give serious thought to buying what you can repair yourself, and keep that layout to a size that is sure to be completed before you die.

Tom, the best advice I can give you is to take your time, and learn as much as you can. I’ve been in this hobby for almost 75 years (my dad built a layout about 5x9’ when I was first born, and had most of the accessories that Lionel had at the time-1947). I’ve been building layouts most of my life and currently have a similar 5x9, but am excited to add a 5 x10 addition to it this year. Plenty of good stuff on the secondary market, as others have posted. For myself, I have no need to have the “latest and greatest”, but may dabble in command control with TMCC.
My current layout is 0-27 track (but 0-42 radius), and the new extension will be Gargraves with Ross switches, as highly recommended by many on this forum.
Every once in awhile, stop, and watch your trains run and have fun!

Artie

@Godale03 posted:

I know Sidetrack doesn't plan on stocking Lionel going forward because of how expensive it has become. There is no used gear for sale there either.

Since you live close by please talk to them again. Their inventory is most likely shrinking because I’m pretty sure they are trying to retire.

@Madockawando posted:

Must have been due to the incredibly large Base-3 sales! 😉

PLEASE!  Take a chill pill and get lost!

When GunRunner says "CHILL",

you should !

@Godale03 posted:

I've been pondering some thoughts for a little while now, and I guess I figured I would throw them out there to see what others may think. I have been collecting O scale locomotives and rolling stock for almost 20 years now. I have always just run them on temporary floor layouts and around the Christmas tree. I have gotten lots of enjoyment out of it. Now that I am 45 and in a position to finally start a permanent layout which was always the long term plan. I figured I would start adding motive power and rolling stock over time so that when the time and money came I could plan the layout without having to also build a roster as well. ...snip...

Tom

You already have a "roster" so concentrate on layout planning, acquiring track and the rest of the materials to build the layout.

@Artie-DL&W posted:

Tom, the best advice I can give you is to take your time, and learn as much as you can. I’ve been in this hobby for almost 75 years (my dad built a layout about 5x9’ when I was first born, and had most of the accessories that Lionel had at the time-1947). I’ve been building layouts most of my life and currently have a similar 5x9, but am excited to add a 5 x10 addition to it this year. Plenty of good stuff on the secondary market, as others have posted. For myself, I have no need to have the “latest and greatest”, but may dabble in command control with TMCC.
My current layout is 0-27 track (but 0-42 radius), and the new extension will be Gargraves with Ross switches, as highly recommended by many on this forum.
Every once in awhile, stop, and watch your trains run and have fun!

Artie

Thank you, that is sound advice. I can tend to be a bit impetuous and inpatient at times. I tend to look at the big picture and fail to break it up into its pieces and take them one step at a time. That is generally how and why I get so overwhelmed. I would like a layout I can not only enjoy, but finish before I pass on as well. That's the hard part... building it big enough to grow with it... but not so big that you never even come close to finishing it.

I have one Legacy engine.  The smoke unit lasted just a year or two.  The sound is failing now, and the drive is developing a hitch in its get-a-long.  Maybe 30 hours on the engine.

I am frustrated by the situation--hence my return to the secondary market.

That said, don't be so quick to fault the folks who encourage tinkering.  Tinkering has a long and respected history in the hobby.  There was a time that purchase of even the most expensive new engines got you an engine needing tinkering.  Ready-to-run really meant Ready-to-Fix/Remotor/Paint/Detail/Etc.  Some people are OK with that situation; others have not the time, inclination/ equipment, or talent to do so.  But it was once not only common but expected.

@romiller49 posted:

Godale3, many of your comments are simply hearsay. There is plenty of competition out there. Lionel raises prices because they can. I don’t believe that. MTH is still making trains. As a hobby, we buy items that are affordable to our budgets. If you continue to worry, as you are now doing, I don’t think you will ever enjoy this great hobby. Don’t let the naysayers ruin your excitement. The dealers say the market is good. Enjoy.

I am definitely worrying.... I am trying not too. With your guys advice and help.... I think I will be ok. Like Ive said before... I have always been alone in this deal... nobody local to educate me. You guys have done alot in just a few hours. Thank you.