Lionel cancels Mechanical Reefers

I have somehow come to expect this type of behavior.  My question is why do we wait until the item is supposed to be shipped(or longer) before we find this out?  If the order numbers were too low, would one not know this before the scheduled delivery date? I really try and stay on Lionel's side, with positive answers about the company to the visitors at club train shows, but this behavior borderlines on rude.

Craig 

>> Due to low orders and higher tooling costs Lionel is canceling the following reefers;

I am not aware of any other company that announces new products with prices in a printed catalog before they know the cost of tooling.  Is this a new way of doing business?  Guess I am just an "old school" guy who likes to figure things out ahead of time.  Ed L.

They (Lionel, MTH, Atlas) all know the cost of tooling.  What they do NOT know what the sales will be until they advertise the product.  Then and ONLY then can they do a Cost Benefit analysis.  So now based on orders or lack there of the cost benefit is negative.  Simple Econ 101.

Ron

At this point I wish MTH and Lionel would do smaller Catalogs so they do not have to cancel as many products.  

 "What they do NOT know what the sales will be until they advertise the product.  Then and ONLY then can they do a Cost Benefit analysis.  So now based on orders or lack there of the cost benefit is negative.  Simple Econ 101."

    I think their logic is wrong. They can't know the sales till they have the car in the shops ready to buy. Guys from other scales are not gonna pre order a car but once they see how nice it is a lot might buy it instead of buying an HO scale car. Most folks I know say they'd rather be modeling in S scale but they can't due to lack of scale product. Lionel doesn't get this so it might take a new company with roots in the scale modeling community to exploit the full potential of S scale, and if that happened it would probably capture a good portion of the O crowd once they see how nice S fits in their train rooms?So Lionel might be taking a bigger risk by not building new S stuff than by building some and testing the market.The big problem is building in a quantity than can lower unit price and keep the cars in stock as demand develops over a period of time, a one run limited production is not gonna create a big base of S scale modelers, it needs to be something like an updated version of American Models or SHS that is in it for the long haul..........DaveB

I think its become a circular path.Lets announce it and see if someone pre-orders based on the possibility of cancellation (sort of a implied buy now or not at all) and be disappointed when cancelled, long delivery times if it isnt cancelled, once its delivered does it look like what was represented and / or does it work? Not what I would call big incentives to buy. Nothing beats kicking the tires. Pennywise and pound foolish marketing misfire. Bean counting versus reliability. Fail.

Heck, sometimes Lionel cancels an item before the ink's dry on the catalog.

I think the bigger issue is the announcement of cancellation so close to the anticipated delivery date.  There were folks out there actually looking forward to these reefers.

This should have been announced a month or so after the pre-order deadline passed.  After all, there should ave been an inkling of them not being economically viable by that time.

And maybe, just maybe, perhaps followed another month later with an announcement of an alternative product rather than total abandonment.

We'll have to wait and see what the next catalog promises, but I'd be willing to bet any new scaled offerings will be viewed with a jaundiced eye.

Rusty

Smaller catalogs? LOL... This was the ONLY piece of new scale tooling in the catalog and the canceled it. How much smaller do you want?

Lionel should re-list the 57" reefer in the 2015 catalog with a detailed clarification on the truck coupler situation that made people not pre-order because of the Cylidrical Hopper mistakes they made.  Also list 8 cars instead of 5 with additional roadnames to increase pre-orders.  They will allow it to sell.  In addition listen to what the "S" customer wants for modern rolling stock such as Autoracks or more modern tank cars. It should not be Lionel telling us what we should want but rather them listening to what we want.

1:64 Autoracks would never go around 20" radius curves.  Lionel/MTH/whoever would have to have the courage to list them in their catalog as 27" minimum radius.

I just don't see that happening.

Actually Martin that's not exactly correct. Lionel makes O scale Autoracks that negotiate O-54 (27"r) thanks to the telescoping draft gear. If they did the same thing in S they would likely negotiate 20"r. What it would look like is another matter, but they could do it if they wanted to.

"1:64 Autoracks would never go around 20" radius curves.  Lionel/MTH/whoever would have to have the courage to list them in their catalog as 27" minimum radius.

I just don't see that happening."

   Alas O made articulated auto racks that would go around 36 inch radius which would equal about 27 inches in S scale. I don't know how they sold but I had some and ran them on my 46 inch radius O scale curves and they looked pretty good. I think the bigger problem is expecting scale S stuff to run on 20 inch radius since that's even toy looking for HO scale. A 30 inch minimum radius standard for S would be small enough to fit in most rooms and still allow reasonable looking track work and performance. Lots of O toy train folks fit in O-72 or 36 inch radius so why not scale S guys? ......DaveB 

The old Athearn HO TTX cars and 86' Hy-Cubes went around 18" radius. 

It wasn't pretty.

This is an AM 85' Pullman on my 27" radius interchange/test curve:

Rusty

"This is an AM 85' Pullman on my 27" radius interchange/test curve:"

    I think that looks fine in the context of layout operation versus scenic compromise.My new S layout plan will have some industrial tracks near that radius but they'll only need to handle 50 or maybe 60 foot cars. In the big picture 27 inch radius is equivalent to O-54 which most guys can find room for so a 27 or 30 inch minimum S scale standard for new models should be workable. I think the major step is dis-associating S scale from flyer and letting it stand on it's own merits between HO scale and O scale, then more  modelers will be inclined to consider S as an attractive alternative.......DaveB  

Daveb, johnnyspeed, and Rusty,

Are you guys saying that Lionel would have no problem listing 27" radius minimum rolling stock in their catalog, should they decide to tool up some larger modern items?

Because I though Lionel is adamant about keeping everything they make capable of running on original AF track.

Martin

Given Lionel's *ahem* "track record" with their one and only scaled S car I wouldn't be placing any bets.  We still don't know if they've learned anything from the first run hopper misadventures.

Seeing they bailed on the reefer, I wouldn't hold my breath for other long modern cars.

Rusty

"Are you guys saying that Lionel would have no problem listing 27" radius minimum rolling stock in their catalog, should they decide to tool up some larger modern items?

Because I though Lionel is adamant about keeping everything they make capable of running on original AF track."

    Flyer track design is over 60 years old so it's time to move on. If Atlas O can sell O scale stuff requiring 36 inch minimum radius then Lionel or anyone else should be able to sell plenty of S stuff for 27 inch minimum radius. They just need to approach S as another modeling scale and forget about trying to please flyer fans . HO scale doesn't worry about Flyer nor does N scale or any other scales so why should S scale modelers have to bear that burden? ....DaveB

Also part of the big picture is the S27 curve is pretty much the equivalent of 18" radius in HO.  At least that's the perspective I use.

I used to also have the opinion of disassociating S Scale from Flyer, even wrote a letter about it to the editor in the original 3/16" Scale Model Railroading magazine back in the 90's.  But, the longer I remained in S Scale, the less I saw that was going to happen.  Much as O Scale gets tied in the public mind to Lionel, S will be tied to Flyer.

In our little corner of "The Market," the numbers usually thrown around for S Scale is about 15% vs. 85% for Flyer.  This has been a fairly constant number ever since I got into S in 1985. 

So we have to acknowledge the Flyer side and even embrace it to a degree.  It's where the growth is going to occur if it's going to occur at all. 

As I try to get my some of my scale brethren to understand: We're better off attracting 10 people to Flyer/Hirail rather than wait for one person to be attracted to Scale.  Even some of the O Scalers don't like to admit they've reaped some benefits from the growth of the 3-rail side over the past few decades.

According to the owner of one of my LHS's, the Flyer Polar Express is pre-sold out.  I've not heard of any scale S product over the years achieve that goal.

The Flyer Polar Express may even snag a person or two permanently into S, or it may just be caught up in the Polar Express mystique.  The real test will be sales of the other two Berkshire sets, when ever they get released...

Of course, what doesn't help is product cancellations or a two year catalog cycle.

Rusty

"In our little corner of "The Market," the numbers usually thrown around for S Scale is about 15% vs. 85% for Flyer.  This has been a fairly constant number ever since I got into S in 1985. 

 So we have to acknowledge the Flyer side and even embrace it to a degree.  It's where the growth is going to occur if it's going to occur at all. 

 As I try to get my some of my scale brethren to understand: We're better off attracting 10 people to Flyer/Hirail rather than wait for one person to be attracted to Scale.  Even some of the O Scalers don't like to admit they've reaped some benefits from the growth of the 3-rail side over the past few decades.

 According to the owner of one of my LHS's, the Flyer Polar Express is pre-sold out.  I've not heard of any scale S product over the years achieve that goal."

   I see a fundamental difference between the O-27/ O scale and the Flyer /S scale relationship.  O has long been a stand alone scale with many modelers who do not consider Lionel to be relevant to their needs while many S gaugers seem to think flyer is relevant to S needs. I'd rather see S scale viewed in context of it's size between HO and O scales instead of it's common size with flyer. Size when comparing O to O-27 or S to flyer don't mean as much as the scale modeling bond between HO,S,and O scales. Toy trains are more closely related to other size toy trains and scale trains are more closely related to other size scale trains, it's just a fundamental difference in interests. As an S scale modeler I'm more interested in the latest N or HO developments than a new S product like the polar express. I don't view polar express buyers as prospective new modelers who can add to our buying power like a bunch of S scale converts from other scales could. As modelers age and if enough want larger trains but don't want to maintain the space required for O scale we might see S come into it's own without help from Lionel, perhaps MTH will get it right or perhaps it will be a new company like Atlas S or Athearn S( which would be great from my standpoint as my first toy trains were early athearn HO products) :> ......DaveB  

 As modelers age and if enough want larger trains but don't want to maintain the space required for O scale we might see S come into it's own without help from Lionel, perhaps MTH will get it right or perhaps it will be a new company like Atlas S or Athearn S( which would be great from my standpoint as my first toy trains were early athearn HO products) :&gt ......DaveB  

 

What growth of S that took place over the past 30 years happened without Lionel.  What stunted that growth was the result of an external force, the actions of one builder in China (Sanda Kan) essentially firing their customers.

Until the last decade, S has been on it's own without Lionel's "help" for the most part. Lionel stuck to producing traditional Flyer and didn't start making the "scale" products unit around 2002 when the Mikado's first came out.

It's hardly been considered a scale company either before or after.

If there were to be an "Atlas S" or "Athearn S," they too would have to address the "Flyer side" and offer their products to be Flyer compatible if they were to survive in the scale.  (Athearn and Atlas also suffered from Sanda Kan firing customers but had deep enough resources to recover more quickly...)

SHS did, American Models does, S Scale America does, Pacific Rail Shops did.  You'll even find Flyer compatible brass 2-8-0's and 4-4-2's from Southwind Models, UP Turbines and Pioneer Zephyrs from River Raisin running around out there.

Even in the olden days of wood and metal S Scale kits of the 50's and 60's, Flyer compatible trucks and couplers were offered, or the modeler simply used Flyer trucks.

I'm also pretty sure Atlas O sells more products to the 3-rail crowd than to the 2-rail crowd.

It's the simple fact that if true S Scale could survive on it's own with out Flyer, it would have.

Rusty

"I'm also pretty sure Atlas O sells more products to the 3-rail crowd than to the 2-rail crowd.

 It's the simple fact that if true S Scale could survive on it's own with out Flyer, it would have."

     O scale is much larger than S scale so more O gauge buyers being able to operate O high rail on tighter curves than O scale is no surprise. But it is surprising that folks will not devote that same 3 rail space to a 2 rail scale S layout, until one takes into account that there is very little S scale stuff made then the appeal of that O high rail compromise makes more sense.  

   If you believe S can't stand on it's own as a scale separate from flyer then you seem to be saying that S is inferior to HO scale because HO can stand on it's own? My experience is that S is just as attractive  as HO and could stand alone if there was reasonably priced product for enough modelers to buy. I see no lack of demand just a lack of product.Anything S scale sells quite well on ebay or other used markets while the same old flyer stuff just sits there clogging up the pages so making more of it doesn't seem a sure thing to me either. How many more toys can the 50's kids buy before they run out of time? What's gonna be the relative attractions of flyer and S scale then? Flyer was the past but S scale could be the future with the right investments in product to cultivate a new market for scale modelers, I see it as much more appealing to older HO guys who like something a bit easier to handle and older O guys who'd like to downsize their houses but don't want to model in HO. In this case size does matter while toy train heritage doesn't......DaveB

I doubt any of the S scale importer/manufacturers could survive for long without the hi-rail market.

Jeff C

Wow, We need a list of exactly whats not coming so we know how to prepare for Christmas Buying!!!! Thanks for the update.....

"I doubt any of the S scale importer/manufacturers could survive for long without the hi-rail market."

   Yet HO does it just fine. The only difference is the product is made so folks can buy it. HO (or N for that matter) manufactures don't worry about the toy train market, they just make their own market. ...DaveB

Them's fight'n words...

I never said, stated, spoke, thought, hinted or implicated that S Scale was inferior to HO.

It's all about numbers, pure and simple.

It is a simple fact that there aren't the same amount of people in S Scale than there are in HO.  There aren't even the same amount of people in S Scale than there are in Flyer.

And S Scale and Flyer combined don't equal the same numbers as O, let alone HO or N.

Until Lionel attempted scale and MTH bought S Helper Service, (and I'm not sure it was an easy sale) the was not one major model train manufacturer of S Scale trains.  The jury's still out with both companies although one appears to be approaching a verdict.

S was a scale comprised of small companies selling to very small market.  I don't think SHS had more than a half-dozen employees, American Models, probably about the same.  S Scale America is a sideline of DesPlaines Hobbies and "an amalgamation of of several small S producers acquired by DesPlaines Hobbies" plus some cars of their own tooling, according to their one and only catalog.  Had DPH not bought up those companies, they would have likely been sent to the trash heap of failed model train companies.

In that alone, S Scale is superior to the other scales in that the few folks willing to put their financial futures on the line by going into a scale where others fear to tread.

And if you haven't noticed, most SHS freight cars are visually the same size as traditional Flyer.  That was done on purpose to overcome sales resistance from the Flyer market.

The last 5-6 years have been rough ones for S, in whatever flavor it exists, but particularly the scale side.  There's no denying it and I never have. 

Had not Sanda Kan fired their customers, SHS would probably still be independent and we'd likely have an E7 and maybe even a 4-6-0 along with other new cars and expanded track selection.  AM and SSA might also be in better positions today. 

But, that's not the S world as it is.

S has always been a tough sale, even in the good old days of the 1990's.  Few hobby shops carried anything S and those that did, there was usually a nice layer of dust decorating the packaging.  Even at DesPlaines Hobbies.

Sure, modelers from other scales say they like the size of S, but they "have too much invested in..."  A nice polite cop-out.

Rusty

"S has always been a tough sale, even in the good old days of the 1990's.  Few hobby shops carried anything S and those that did, there was usually a nice layer of dust decorating the packaging.  Even at DesPlaines Hobbies.

 Sure, modelers from other scales say they like the size of S, but they "have too much invested in..."  A nice polite cop-out."

   They have too much invested simply because there's much to buy. If there had been that much S stuff available they have bought it instead. I remember the first time I saw an SHS PS2 hopper and my first thought was HO is dead, this is such a nice size. Then the production stalled and the critical mass was never reached. It's hard to compete with a well supplied market even with a superior product unless one has faith like Apple did when it kept plugging away at the PC competition till people took it seriously. How many people would be using Apple today if it had decided to stop production and just build it's first products in limited numbers till they were gone? Same thing with Toyota and Honda in the US market, they were bit players but didn't pack it in when folks said they had too much invested in Chevys and Fords to switch. I highly doubt that the US model railroad hobby would end if suddenly the major players said they are gonna stop making so much HO and O stuff and start making more new S stuff, I imagine there'd be a surge of new buying from folks waiting to ride the new wave.  ...DaveB 

They needed to make the Pacific Car & Foundry Mechanical Refrigerators with matching 1965-2000 era equipment like the EMD SD40-2 locomotive, Thrall Car Gondolas, ACF Center Flow 4600 Cu. Ft. Capy. 3-bay covered hoppers, Bethlehem Johnstown Flat Cars with optional Bulkheads, FMC Exterior-Braced 50' Double-Door boxcars, Pullman-Standard Exterior-braced 50' Single-door boxcars, and the modern International bay-window caboose.

Andrew

It would also help if the track system had realistically large radius curves.

Andrew

Over the past five decades I've had over a dozen permanent layouts in N, HO and 3 Rail O gauge. Bought a new home in the 90's and attended a Greenburg train show shortly there after. Mike Wolf was there displaying his new MTH O gauge Dash-8's and Weaver's Alco C-630 diesels.

Those locomotives looked good but what really caught my eye were the S gauge models on display at this show. There were heavyweight Madison car sets in several road names and freight sets like the one pictured above.  I considered building an S gauge layout but found the market to be extremely limited. I decided to stick with O gauge and now regret my decision because I've really grown to hate that center rail and those hideous claw sized couplers.

Didn't know MTH purchased SHS until I read this thread. I hope MTH puts the wheels in motion and begins producing quality S gauge items for you S scale modelers. If they put as much effort into it as they've done with HO gauge perhaps other manufacturers will take notice and jump on the S scale band wagon.  

Reality is such that when you ignore it, it doesn't go away.

I wish the manufacturers would make more S scale product. I wish Bachmann had bought SHS instead of MTH (They would probably do a much better job of introducing product more aggressively). I wish the Lions would win a Super Bowl. I wish ifs and buts were candy and nuts....

But at the end of the day the market is what it is, and Rusty did a pretty good job of defining the S scale market as it exists today. I really do wish it was different. I've moved in and out of S scale several times over the last 20 years in my rubber gauging journey, and every time I go into S I do it thinking that the scale will finally move toward reaching that critical mass we are all hoping for. It hasn't happened, and I'm getting old.

Jeff C

By the way, along with my Windows PC I have an Apple laptop and I'm not impressed with the Apple...

There's always been "too much to buy" in HO.  Personally, I think it's good time to be out of HO because of it. 

All someone has to do is make the decision and jump in.  That's what I did back in 1985.  I also got out of 3-rail O (which was a parallel hobby, not a replacement) for the most part the same way, but not for the same reason.

There's plenty more avenues to unload used trains now than 30 years ago.  But, many will look at it more as a financial loss rather than an opportunity to start anew.

In the end it all boils down to availability and what the remaining hobby shops and alternative dealers are willing to place on their shelves.  They want and need to have items that will rotate out in a reasonable time and the ability to replenish stock.  Unfortunately, under today's conditions it's not going to be with S.

I would like it to be different, but it's not.  That's why I'm disappointed with Lionel's recent handling of the truck thing and reefers.  Lionel's brand could help greatly with exposure of S to the general market, but right now I'm not so sure.  We'll have to wait some more to see what direction they're going to take with Flyer now.

As far as MTH, hopefully they'll at least offer the former SHS stuff as a separate item with scale wheels.  I don't see them ever following SHS's idea of including both set of wheels on the freight cars.  The true test for MTH will be what they've done to the F3.

I don't see Athearn or Atlas riding in on white locomotives and getting into S.  They've both got their hands full with what they're doing currently.  The same goes for Bachmann and Walthers.

Rusty

It's interesting to note also, that the SHS sets came with Flyer compatible couplers, wheelsets and a 3-position electronic reverse unit installed.

SHS would change them them out at customer request at no charge, however.  They would also install DCC in the locomotive at a charge.  They would even swap out cars with ones with a different roadname if the customer desired.

You won't see anyone do that anymore.

Rusty

Wow.

I've been regularly following along here in the S scale forum because I know many of you (and wish the best for you) as well as still have an interest in S scale's health/direction in general.

Even though I threw in the towel in regards to trying to do something in S, it is so frustrating to see such a nice looking size just sitting (almost stagnant) and literally floundering in the water.

Jeff C. said something that, unfortunately, is a minor player in the S scene:

quote:

... every time I go into S I do it thinking that the scale will finally move toward reaching that critical mass we are all hoping for. It hasn't happened, and I'm getting old.

In a nutshell that is what happened to me.  I really did get into S scale at the wrong time. (My timing sucks sometimes.)  I just didn't have the years it apparently takes to watch the years slip by waiting for needed product.  So, like a traitor, I jumped ship and started amassing the HO items I need in order to have things on hand I will use to get a layout up and functional as my retirement years near (about 3 1/2 years from now). 

I really, really feel for my friends in S scale. 

Andre, you just said exactly what I have felt for about the last 2 years - and I'm only 40!  One of the reasons that I gave S a try is that if I did not work for me, there would always be HO and even 3 rail O to fall back to. I'm still here in the S camp, even though my interests have shifted lately to postwar Flyer. 

I too would love to see S grow but it sure seems that I am fighting up-stream most of the time. I still am really disappointed about this one:

https://ogrforum.ogaugerr.com/t...y-1st-s-scale-layout

Had I stayed with this layout and track system, I would still be sitting here with no turnouts.  My God man, almost 2 1/2 years later and I WOULD STILL HAVE NO TURNOUTS!   I guess the good news is that I can still use American Models track if I want to.

"Had I stayed with this layout and track system, I would still be sitting here with no turnouts.  My God man, almost 2 1/2 years later and I WOULD STILL HAVE NO TURNOUTS!"

   The alternative is spend a couple hours learning how to build your own then be free of buying them forever. I don't think turnouts are a huge deterrent to most scale modelers, Shinohara turnouts are available as are Fast tracks jigs and materials. Give them a better selection of locos and cars and most scale modelers could figure out how to deal with the track. Scratch building a turnout might take a couple of hours while scratch building a reefer could take a month or more of hobby time plus the difficulty of finding detail parts like ladders and brake gear. That's why a good selection of RTR cars are so important to the attractiveness of S to modelers contemplating what scale to build their layout or collection in.....DaveB  

Dave, I already know how to build turnouts, scale models and prototype ones too.  The whole point of building that layout was to use Lionel's fastrack system and integrate it with legacy and possible their LCS later on.