OMG! Stout Auction results

Robert very interesting graph ... in all hobbies you have different price points ...always have, always will ..if you collect  vintage motorcycles ...toy trains look like chump change .. if you collect early Marklin   most other toy trains are pretty cheap .  The different fields attract all different walks of life ...some have private jets others take the bus ..all can share the passion ...but pursue it in their own fashion.   

Auction houses need all price points to attract a wide audience ...  so the high end items allow the auction house to carry some cheaper items ..but the high end pay the lion share of the over head to bring you the next auction . 

Some drive a rolls, some a chevy ...we all share the same road and have to stop at a red light ... each to their own ability and interest ..if we all collected and could only afford the same things this would be one boring planet .

Cheers Carey

Some good points, Carey. :-)

Very well said Carey!! Very well said!

@Robert S. Butler posted:

Barry and David1 - I disagree - every hobby/pursuit is made up of a distribution of individuals and those individuals have a distribution of disposable income.  As a result, you will find, without exception, individuals in any hobby/pursuit who have a hard time coming up with even a minimal amount of funds to pursue their interests and others for whom money isn't much of an issue.

  If you have the funds and you have the desire to assemble a collection of only the best of whatever (toy trains, paper currency, antique cars, cast iron banks, old door stoppers, weapons of any type, mechanical pinball games, wind-up old toys, etc.) you will choose to spend that money on the best you can find in your area of interest and it will cost money.

  I have friends with interests in old cars and old U.S. currency and they just laugh any time I mention the "high" prices paid for old toy trains.  For instance, the highest price in the latest Stout Auction (the standard gauge $19,000 switch tower) won't get you anywhere near the hammer price for something of comparable rarity and condition in either the old car or U.S. currency market.

  The other thing to consider is the fact that the $19,000 is an extreme outlier.  The reality is that for the 650 lots sold the mean price was $859, the Median (the 50% point) was $325, the minimum was $20, and the maximum was $19,000.

Here's the breakout

The interlude is that group of lots that fell between the standard gauge listings and the postwar listings.

You can lay out stats and info all you want, and every person has a right to spend their own money however they see fit, but ridiculous prices are still ridiculous prices. That doesn't and will not change.....................................

I don't want to derail this thread so I'll keep it brief - The first rule in statistical analysis (which is what I do for a living) is plot the data. The plot is in direct response to the title of this thread. The issue isn't "stats" the issue is the meaningful visual representation of the data itself (which is what a boxplot does). The key takeaway from the plot of the actual data is that $19,000 is not at all typical of what happened at that auction. As for a ridiculous price, that's a matter of opinion and it is clear the individuals involved in driving the final hammer price up to $19,000 do not agree with that assessment.

I say David1 is a bit brutal in his assessment of folks spending unreal $$$ for a toy...yet I agree!

Again...price is what you pay; value is what YOU get! Or percieve that it is FOR YOU!  Certainly the folks that spend big $$$ know they "have to have it", and may they enjoy their find.

It's their money.  How they spend it is none of my business whether I agree with it or not.  I certainly don't like people telling me how I spend my money.

Some may be missing the point, what is big dollars to you is probably not the same big dollars to them.  No reason for some people to be insulting to those that choose to dabble at the high end of the collecting market.  There are plenty of those folks here on this forum and they are just as nice as the next person.  If I had the coin, I would probably be right out there with those guys doing the same thing. It is what it is.  As has been said, we all have our zones within the hobby, they are different, some overlap and some don't.  It is  what it is and I am happy with the stuff I have managed to put together and I don't begrudge others who manage to step up for those things past my reach and I also don't sit and say woe is me.

It just may be idiotic to look down on someone just because they do it different than you or have different opinions...

While I have no interest in any of thus type of stuff, the reason I have the money to spend on the things I do want is because I have the brains to have made the money in the first place.

Contrarily, if you're a person who wants something that went for that type of money and are whining because you didn't have the money then you're the one who didn't have the brains.

For the seller(s), this was one fantastic auction.  I had placed several bids on items before the live auction plus several more under favorites to bid on live.  Didn't win anything and was close only on one item but there will be more.  As for the amount spent by the purchaser, it's their prerogative.  We've all probably paid for more something in the past because we liked it and wanted it.

Of course, it is that individual's prerogative (re the boxed original 437), but even if I had that amount of disposable income, I would opt for the new-in-the-box Lionel Classics version with the orange roof for $225. But that is ME! :-)

Well, that's ok.  I could respond and say gee, Why spend 225-300 for a reproduction when I can spend less than $50 on an original and repaint it my self?  Point is neither path is wrong but different people prefer one path over the other.

I only paid attention to the Lionel standard gauge items at this auction, because that is what I mainly collect.

While the top of the line, super rare or super condition pieces brought big money, there were also some very affordable buys-especially for beginning collectors. There were some extremely clean #8, #10 , #318, #33 etc complete sets that sold for well under 500.00 and some of those even had original boxes. There were also some good deals on the freight/passenger car lots and other accessory items.  Even some of the top shelf pieces like the 400E Blue Comet and 381E State sets sold for what I considered to be fair prices considering what similar examples have sold for in the past. I feel this auction had something for everyone's budget and everyone's collecting level.

An auction is  like a day at the races: you never know who will finish first or last. That's why they are exciting to be a part of.

Dennis: You are a most talented and creative restorer and I respect that! I, on the other hand, like "new and shiny" and my OCD is a factor here. When I was much younger (mid '70's), I purchased and restored several original boxed Lionel standard gauge sets and ran them on the original track with those "button" style transformers. Guess it was a phase I very much enjoyed at the time but eventually grew out of. Engines were mostly #8's, #10's and 318's.

Judge not lest ye be judged .  Someone or the other said that.

Anyway, the person who spent 19,000 dollars on something may have just contributed a few million to Salvation Army or Foodlink.  No need to condemn people who you don't know and haven't committed a crime as far as we can tell, or neglected a starving child to buy a toy. 

The point being if each of us decided we couldn't play with trains because there are indeed starving children in the world, it would neither make us happy nor end starvation world-wide.  We all live better than 99.999% of humans who came before us.

Keep in mind it takes at least two bidders to drive prices up to " ridiculous" levels.

And prices can come down -- way down-- as many are now discovering.  Example.A Marklin excellent Cafe station which once brought $18000- $21000 was only able to yield a hammer price of $4000 at a recent auction.

Or again--There was a situation in Hornby collecting many years ago where one individual was driving prices sky high. He wanted two of all the good stuff (or so I was told). Once he left the market, the prices dove back to their normal values.

So despite the $19000 example, prices for the most part are actually lower than they were 5-10 years ago. And we all know the answer--a lot of supply especially from estate sales, and not as much demand.

Have fun

Lew Schneider

Lew: Having fun is the watchword! :-)

Congrats on the Grand Canyon Set! That really is beautiful and so complete with the boxes and papers! Wonderful toy and piece of history.

George