The train market dynamics before and after York

I'm selling right now, less buying.   Yes, I expect to buy at York!

I think the ones going to york will save their pennies until the show...To much there to go light on cash...

I imagine anyone going is taking the attitude, "Well, I can buy it there unless . . ." so they are probably waiting to spend what money they have next week.

Not exactly on subject, but twice, on my way home from York, I stopped at the train store in Strasburg to buy MTH operating freight cars that I didn't see at the meet. York is huge, but that does not mean you will find everything you're looking for...especially new stuff.

Not that I need anything, but I certainly am in that mode.  Show prices are in general lots less than, say, eBay prices, and you do not pay shipping.  You do pay travel and hotel, but I think of that as vacation expense, not train expense.

 

On the other hand, not everyone goes to shows, so I would guess that 80% of the normal buyers are doing what they usually do - maybe the economy is having a momentary glitch?

Here's my take on your observations. Some interpretation and humor please...

Pre-York:
As noticed on the bay and other online outlets...
"I'm thinning my collection" (cause I need spending money for York!)
A buyers market to be sure.
Why? Pre-York buyers are out of the market 10-14 days pre-York...

Post-York:
"I'm thinning my collection" (crap I overspent at York. Need to sell some stuff to even up.)
A buyers market for sure.
Why? Post-York buyers are out of the market 15-30 days leveling up and enjoying new York buys and posting about them and the deals here on the forum.

That gives non-York buyers 6-8 weeks of optimal buying opportunities.
Sure, the selection may not match volume at York. But it there are many more days of buying opportunities than while attending York.

I know...nothing compares to York...but for me here in the midwest...my price savings are nulled out by the round trip travel costs.

Train-buying diet? I’d say yes.

 

For about the last 4-6 weeks I’ve really tried to be disciplined about buying, especially those impulse buys where it’s an item I don’t really need. Have almost pulled the trigger on 3-4 ebay purchases but have been telling myself “wait until York."

Unless something for sale is a really "hot item", things will slow down until after York. Buyers who are going to York want to maximize their time and expense getting there. Just makes common sense.

Certain eBay sellers go silent every year in mid July. They appear again just after Labor Day and "clean up" selling desirable items. Then they cut their offerings significantly by Oct 1 until after York. I attribute this to their need to raise cash for York.

Personally I stop looking in Sept. Between York, Allentown, my wife's birthday in Nov, and Christmas I need to hit the Lotto.

On the Atlas - you were just unlucky, because everybody and their brothers and sisters has decided to dump Atlas billboard reefers, along with every other conceivable plastic freight car.  The asking prices seem a bit high to me, but the volume is overwhelming.

Over the past several years I have not noticed any real bargains at York. At least for products I might be interested in. This with the possible exception of Trainworld and their Williams blowouts. Several other dealers did have good prices but not what I would consider great bargains.

 

Folks it's not because of York.  Unless you live under a rock the whole buying economy has put the breaks on.   

For what it's worth, I have heard it said several times by people who buy and sell regularly on eBay:  Summer is the off season, the amateurs sell and the pros buy, prices are down.  Winter is high season, the pros sell and amateurs buy, prices are up.  The April and October York meets are the approximate delineators between the seasons.  After the October York meet, both sales volume and prices head higher going into the holidays.  For what it's worth.

 

 

 

So I have been watching the B/S board, and things still seem a little more quiet than usual. I wonder if everyone's wallets are still smoldering from the show. I know mine is 

York affects my buying because I want to see what will be announced by the manufacturers. If nothing announced interested me I would buy some older items. Now that Lionel has announced the Big Boy I will be saving for that. I am always looking for reasonably priced Atlas reefers and hope to pick up one or two at the Denver TCA show after Thanksgiving.

After York I'm so poor I can't even pay attention!

 

Jerry

This past York was unprecedented with respect to deals on new production items from the past year or two.  Pretty much yet another round of discounting on top of the near non-stop discount sales that many of the dealers have been running in 2013 to lure folks to purchase.    So that should tell you right there that enough folks have NOT been jumping at all those sales this year.  Being a dealer right now has gotta be rough.

 

So if folks jumped on even some of those great bargains this year at York, I can't imagine all that much activity going on here on the OGR for-sale forum right now -- unless of course someone posts something that EVERYONE is looking for... like a Lionel ES44 or Vision Line Tankers w/freight-sounds, or something along those lines.    Either that kind of stuff... or just one-off, low-priced individual items.  Most folks will need time to re-charge!!! 

 

David

Glad to hear York was full of great buys for many of you. It definitely was for me, especially in the area of scarce Golden Gate Depot products at far below MSRP!

 

I too still have a few large items left to sell in order to complete the change of direction I've taken with my collection. Will float them out on the B/S board soon and see how they do in the post-York wallet apocalypse 

Typically, in the run-up to York I am selling off items.  Most of these items are excess rolling stock, my incorrect purchases, or items that I simply don't need or want anymore.  And I like delivering items to buyers at York; did that this fall on 4 items. 

 

But I don't do that with the thought of getting a budget to spend at York.  I don't have a big list of items I have to get.  At this point in the layout's construction, I am past the point of acquiring big ticket items such as locomotives and rolling stock.  I am more focused on structure kits, scratchbuilding materials, scenery materials, and detail parts.  And at best, York is a so-so source of these items.

 

This year, in sharp contrast with the past, I spent a fair amount of money AHEAD of York.  All of the items I purchased simply weren't going to be available at York.  What I did buy at York turned out to be targets of opportunity.

 

And I do have a major purchase in the works right now (post York).  That may come to pass - depends on the price.  That will curtail train spending for at least 11 months.

 

George