3rd Rail just announced SD40-2's

@SPSF posted:

Do you want W&LE or Conrail?  Both are in that list.

I want W&LE.  However, someone mentioned that not enough reservations were received for some roads to trigger Scott to actually do the run of -2s.

I was offering to change my reservation if say W&LE already had more than enough orders, and say Conrail, CSX, and/or GN did not.  I'm not sure where that person got the info about which roads do not have enough orders, but if it was made known to everyone, maybe we could get them made by adjusting the orders with peoples 2nd or 3rd choices.

This has been on offer for quite some time and Is obviously stalled. I’m guessing there’s a Total Number Needed but Also a total number of each road needed.
Help us Scott !!! What are the laggards that can be dropped ???? The laggards get counted to the total but if we can switch to a “passing” road then the  number can stay level. It a number juggle thing. Others can double their single res.
I’ve MP and Frisco reserved. If Frisco is a laggard, let me know and I’ll switch that reservation to a second MP.

Sounds like ranked choice ordering...

I wouldn't be as concerned with number of reservations per road quite yet.  Reserve the road you want.  The ultimate question is the total number of units.  Scott makes a call on how low he is willing to go on a specific road name to make the total project go.

It took 5 years to get the Amfleet project to go forward, so don't give up hope.  If you are on the fence to order a unit go ahead and place your pre-order.  Once the reservations start to show a sign of life, the project can then go into formal design.  

Perhaps an announcement by 3rd Rail on the regular 3R forum will help.

-Crank

I have 2 reserved. If the price was $900 (same as the Dash 9) I would still be in for 2. If the price increased, would that mean fewer reservations would be required? Of course, some may back out of their original reservation(s)if the price increased $150 per model. I think it’s currently at $750.

@catnap posted:

I have 2 reserved. If the price was $900 (same as the Dash 9) I would still be in for 2. If the price increased, would that mean fewer reservations would be required? Of course, some may back out of their original reservation(s)if the price increased $150 per model. I think it’s currently at $750.

It’s currently at 730. I bet when priced, it was a bit higher than other models as it was anticipated to not draw that many reservations. A modest bump to 750 might help, prob won’t loose many subscribers, but won’t help those already watching their budgets. And Price increases don’t attract new buyers.

The problem is, with fewer models at a higher price, as demonstrated above, is that there are too many variations with insufficient reservations for each.  If there were 75+ reservations each for ATSF, UP, and BN then it would be very doable for ~$800 each.  But there are no more than about 10 reservations for any variation, most are about 5.  At 5-10 models per variation you probably looking at $1200-$1500 per model.

@rdunniii posted:

The problem is, with fewer models at a higher price, as demonstrated above, is that there are too many variations with insufficient reservations for each.  If there were 75+ reservations each for ATSF, UP, and BN then it would be very doable for ~$800 each.  But there are no more than about 10 reservations for any variation, most are about 5.  At 5-10 models per variation you probably looking at $1200-$1500 per model.

Well this is looking more and more like “Mission Impossible” with an unhappy ending. Perhaps there is just to many of these models out there for buyers to belly up with some serious bucks. Even for what for sure would be a superbly crafted model- it’s stalled and not even close to being launched. I’m not even sure it could launch after a 5 year waiting time frame.  
I’d love to see it but I don’t think it’s going to fly.  ☹️

So it's 20 reservations short and that is going to cancel the model?

It's really a shame that everything in O needs to be 50 years old and older in order to be made and be made Correctly.

@rdunniii posted:

The problem is, with fewer models at a higher price, as demonstrated above, is that there are too many variations with insufficient reservations for each.  If there were 75+ reservations each for ATSF, UP, and BN then it would be very doable for ~$800 each.  But there are no more than about 10 reservations for any variation, most are about 5.  At 5-10 models per variation you probably looking at $1200-$1500 per model.

I'd drop $2,500 for a pair of Wheeling & Lake Erie SD40-2's (2-rail DCC with ESU LokSound). Of course, I don't think anybody else would. 🤣

@rdunniii posted:

The problem is, with fewer models at a higher price, as demonstrated above, is that there are too many variations with insufficient reservations for each.  If there were 75+ reservations each for ATSF, UP, and BN then it would be very doable for ~$800 each.  But there are no more than about 10 reservations for any variation, most are about 5.  At 5-10 models per variation you probably looking at $1200-$1500 per model.

Really? C'mon Chessie peeps where you at? Don't make me go this alone I have 2 on order and that's about all I can do for a model that won't run on my curves and will sit on a shelf. Something smaller like the SW1 will see me order more.

Maybe if Scott didn't advertise every RR under the sun and did them in multiple runs with different road names each time he would get more orders for fewer road names. Just a thought...

The railroad schemes shown not include The Grand Trunk Western in 1980's blue and The SOO LINE 1973 in white.

Both of which did NOT have dynamic brakes.

Unless the team at LIONEL come up a new modular SD40-2 also, there is not much chance of getting a GTW or SOO SD40-2 that matches or matched the real ones.

Andrew

Sounds like we need 250-300 reservations to make this fly at 750-800. There are 17 models offered so 16 each gets us to 275. Just saying. If 100 people buy 2 and another 75 buy 1 we get there. Just hypothetical of course.  That’s 175 buyers. Boy. These aren’t big numbers !!!!  And we are still having trouble getting there.
I think perhaps we have some Sunset models competing with other Sunset models for dollars. 🤔😣

@jonnyspeed posted:

If Scott didn't advertise every RR under the sun and did them in multiple runs with different road names each time he would get more orders for fewer road names. Just a thought...

Well, I'm not in the 40-2 hunt, but I doubt this would be acceptable to many of the O2R/O3R crowd who are passionate about wanting their personal favorite.

I keep thinking about....and waking up each morning feeling the effects of...the demographics of our group.  We ain't getting any younger.   Pandemics don't help.  Uncertainties about our near- and post-retirement finances in a changing world lead us to Maalox and aspirin, sometimes daily.  IOW, mortality is the hoofbeat behind us, getting louder in spite of our declining sense of hearing.

Scott undoubtedly has a lot on his platter, so to speak.  I'm sure he gets a lot of 'help' in laying out production plans for a myriad of models.  Heck, I have callouses on my knees from prostrating myself in groveling embarrassment before the man.  Second....even third...runs of models are not his normal modus operandi.... and they're seldom in quick succession anyway.  Some of us just hope our dreams will come true before our fire drops.  I'm in the upper end of the septuagenarian years.  I'm not sure I'd enjoy waiting for re-run #2...or more so #3...just to keep my reservation and enthusiasm...and heartbeat...going a tad longer.  And, with a bunch of other steam/diesel/electric/passenger train projects under consideration in between, those could be lengthy waits.  Or, let's do multiple runs of the same engine in quick succession...and push the other dreams off into the sunset a bit longer!?  Oof with a woof!

Besides, if we're adamant about a very specific paint scheme, detailed variant, smaller flag, third/fourth owner shortline version, what are the chances of EVER getting that minimum number of interested (less-passionate) buyers to hit a minimum doable quantity?...especially as time ticks on??

Lastly, here's another perspective that can really cause insomnia!..   If you...like me...always thought that Mike Wolf was a "kid"...Mike: The young Giant Slayer!...(seems like only 'yesterday' he began his career from his family home!)....and now he wants a well-deserved retirement!?!?!...    Can Scott Mann be far behind?

Waiting?  Multiple runs??  "Take a number!"?.....

Tick....tock....tick...tock...tick...tock...

Just a thought...

KD

Ken,  Scott and I talked about his retirement on Sunday. I don't see that happening for quite some time yet with the proviso that the Orientals are willing to produce trains. There are very few similarities between Scott and Mike Wolf and how their businesses are run.

R. Heil   Sunset / 3rd Rail / Golden Gate Depot

@rheil posted:

Ken,  Scott and I talked about his retirement on Sunday. I don't see that happening for quite some time yet with the proviso that the Orientals are willing to produce trains. There are very few similarities between Scott and Mike Wolf and how their businesses are run.

R. Heil   Sunset / 3rd Rail / Golden Gate Depot

Glad Scott plans on being around - delivering great models. 🤗🙂🙃. He just needs to have enough of us Stay around and commit enough reservations to launch new products. 😬. Seriously - great product truly appreciated. 👍👍

"Can Scott Mann be far behind?"  Short answer... No.

Long Answer: As long as customers ask us to make models, and we get enough orders, then I will continue to make model trains.

I don't know what I would do with myself if I wasn't working on something. For me, this is my hobby, running the business, reviewing the designs, traveling and checking production, interacting with interesting and interested customers at the shows. Getting a little golf in with the factory guys.

I get up early, 2- 3 AM most days and chat with Korea and China (end of their day), answer emails and maybe go back to sleep for a few more hours. I work with the office (remotely for now), coming in on their off days.

I don't wake early because I have to. I have always been an early bird. I love driving around town with no one out except me and the animals. I see Deer, Skunks, Raccoons, Owls... I have to drive more cautiously at that time because the deer tend to jump out from the bushes when they see my lights.

Before COVID, I traveled extensively to Korea, China and Europe (When we make European models), and Chicago and the East Coast (York). And I am the biggest white knuckle flyer you ever met, but I still traveled. That part of the business is gravy for the soul. To be able to pat the guys that make this stuff on the back, hold production models, make small corrections and changes with eager smiles from the workers. Everyone is invested emotionally. How could I walk away from that.

As time goes on I feel obligated to keep going to help those that make the designs, tooling and models, work at our office, print the magazines, all trying to make a living at it. We all have pledged to help each other in business, and so I feel the same obligation.

Dad was the same way. He came to work even during his Chemo at 75 years old, most every day. He was pretty tired most of that time. He passed away at 78, leaving me to run the business. I remember walking around the office early in the morning, before anyone was there. I could hear his voice, words of advise. Things I already knew, but we had rehashed over and over during our 10 years working together almost every day. He too loved running the business.

So that's the long answer. I am here to stay, as long as I have support from the factories, customers and a little luck.

BTW: Would you guys be mad if I dropped the SD40-2 for something more popular? After all this time we only have 190 reservations, only 1/2 of what is needed.  What could the new diesel be that many want?

Scott Mann

Hi Scott,

Hoping for some big ALCO's; C628's, C630's, C636's

Thanks.

@sdmann posted:

BTW: Would you guys be mad if I dropped the SD40-2 for something more popular? After all this time we only have 190 reservations, only 1/2 of what is needed.  What could the new diesel be that many want?

Scott Mann

Scott, I love what you and your team do for the hobby. Thank you.

I'd like to offer a suggestion:

When you make an announcement and list it on your website add a "counter board" on each project that clearly shows your minimum requirement and an updating tally of FIRM reservations.  Also Include a project "expiration date".

1.) I believe this simple communication will go a long way to settle things for all interested parties.

2.) It will serve as both motivation and a reality check for us modelers who want a particular prototype made.

3.) It should also allow you to be more responsive to your customers.  Creating an opportunity to make even more announcements, testing the interest for each, and more nimbly adjusting to revenue generating preferences.

I hope you consider it.

Thanks again.

- Will

@sdmann posted:

"Can Scott Mann be far behind?"  Short answer... No.

Long Answer: As long as customers ask us to make models, and we get enough orders, then I will continue to make model trains.

I don't know what I would do with myself if I wasn't working on something. For me, this is my hobby, running the business, reviewing the designs, traveling and checking production, interacting with interesting and interested customers at the shows. Getting a little golf in with the factory guys.

I get up early, 2- 3 AM most days and chat with Korea and China (end of their day), answer emails and maybe go back to sleep for a few more hours. I work with the office (remotely for now), coming in on their off days.

I don't wake early because I have to. I have always been an early bird. I love driving around town with no one out except me and the animals. I see Deer, Skunks, Raccoons, Owls... I have to drive more cautiously at that time because the deer tend to jump out from the bushes when they see my lights.

Before COVID, I traveled extensively to Korea, China and Europe (When we make European models), and Chicago and the East Coast (York). And I am the biggest white knuckle flyer you ever met, but I still traveled. That part of the business is gravy for the soul. To be able to pat the guys that make this stuff on the back, hold production models, make small corrections and changes with eager smiles from the workers. Everyone is invested emotionally. How could I walk away from that.

As time goes on I feel obligated to keep going to help those that make the designs, tooling and models, work at our office, print the magazines, all trying to make a living at it. We all have pledged to help each other in business, and so I feel the same obligation.

Dad was the same way. He came to work even during his Chemo at 75 years old, most every day. He was pretty tired most of that time. He passed away at 78, leaving me to run the business. I remember walking around the office early in the morning, before anyone was there. I could hear his voice, words of advise. Things I already knew, but we had rehashed over and over during our 10 years working together almost every day. He too loved running the business.

So that's the long answer. I am here to stay, as long as I have support from the factories, customers and a little luck.

BTW: Would you guys be mad if I dropped the SD40-2 for something more popular? After all this time we only have 190 reservations, only 1/2 of what is needed.  What could the new diesel be that many want?

Scott Mann

We're happy to read you will be around! For myself, I plan to keep purchasing your offerings not only because they are top-notch, but because you are great to work with. Also, it is a bonus to be able to conduct business with friends.

I like the idea of an SD40-2 run, but at half, maybe something like the Siemens Charger would get more interest? I'd also love to see the SD70ACe-T4 made.

Chris

Well, way back when, I suggested a GP40-2 might do better, but probably not much better.  We've also discussed the new Amtrak Chargers, to go along with the Amfleet and Viewliner cars but that got zero interest.  I don't think the Dash 9s or E60s will fare much better, but I hope I am wrong, I could use several Dash9 chassis for my MTH/Lionel ES44s.  This is good for my finances.  It's also why Midwestern has a bucketload of my reservations.  

Hi Scott,

With 190 reservations, what would the SD40-2 have to cost to have a production run?

Great to hear! Any thoughts on "re-runs" instead of "new-runs"?

As for the SD40-2 I would have loved to see the CP rail two flag scheme. Was Huge here in the north east. CP is 90% of what we see here in upstate NY.  Doesn't exactly exist in O scale.

Hey Scott: Got the new LED lights you sent and already installed, they do look nice and the "flicker free" feature is very  much welcomed.

As for the SD40-2, yes, drop the project. As was mentioned above, having too many projects might be mudding up the waters in terms of reservations.

I have no opinion on what makes a project popular or not, (I would have thought the SD40-2 was a pretty sure bet) but it might be time to dust off some of the old models and dare I say, start to remake some of the more popular choices.

From a business point of view, Chevy did not stop making Corvettes because they feed the demand. Improvements were made, new customers entered the market and technology marched on.

In your case, many of your iconic models are more than 20 years old. New customers, new technology and quite frankly, very limited product is available on the secondary market. You and your staff can figure out what might be a good project based on past numbers, current secondary market availability and how new technology and manufacturing techniques might bring an old(er) project to market that would be in demand.

Charlie

Scott,

As I mentioned in an email a few weeks ago, with the impending closure of MTH, I'm looking to your company for my future purchases. I've previously suggested the New York Central K-Class Pacific in this thread and would also be interested in small steam engines such as a 2-6-0 and 4-6-0 (maybe even generic) if they are economically feasible. As for diesels, I prefer the smaller ones such as the GP7/9 and F3, which I already have on order. Continued best wishes for success to you and Sunset...

MELGAR

Hate to see the plug pulled on such a popular engine for the real railroads that spanned a wide era right up to and including today.   Plus, it is a model that has been so poorly done in 3 Rail and nothing available in 2R.  How about a little more advertising from Scott on the 3r and 2r forums at the least?

-Crank

I will add my (2) cents.

I am pretty much thru with buying any new Lionel engines, steam or diesel. I am frankly tired of hoping for a model that is not broken or not working out of the box. 7 out of my last 10 Lionel engines had to go in for warranty work immediately or got sent back to the supplier. With MTH gone and Atlas back orders 3 years and waiting.......

I only plan to purchase 3rd Rail products from now on. That being said, I feel the price equals the quality.

Donald

I just put in a reservation for a Norfolk southern one

@EMD posted:

Hi Scott,

With 190 reservations, what would the SD40-2 have to cost to have a production run?

For an estimate take $200K (that's the minimum for one or a thousand) and divide it by the number of models. So for 200 models $1K each.  And that's for 2020.  The Chinese government will give workers their 10-20% raise next year so next year it will be $220K or more.

And oh, for those I know are thinking it, that minimum for making them in the US is ~$500K in 2020.  Scott has already tried that route.

hmmmm what to ask for in place of the sd40-2? maybe something to go with those beautiful misouri pacific cars he is issuing. along with the other roads using like santafe, atlantic coast line, emd demonstrator, florida east coast, chicago & northwestern, rock island, union pacific. if not that, then something to go with the m&p cars he is issuing.

I saw somewhere in the thread we are just short of 200 reservations. I’ve a MP and a Frisco reserved. I’d up my MP to two to help get to Needed 275 numbers to get it to fly. 275 into 200,000 gets to  the 729$ current pricing.  250 reservations get to an 800 price point.  I could also double my Frisco too. If I’m a lonely Frisco fan I can switch the Frisco to SF.
ANYONE Else out there willing to make a final push ???????????
Can we Help Finally Make this a GO ?????
One last push ??? Or just pull the plug!!!!!!   Time to 👍 or 👎this offering.
If a no-go I’ll just realign my reservation “bux” into the Alco FA offering. Gotta get it moving too.
cheers !!! 🤗

Trainbub, I like your thinking

Scott,

Would it be worthwhile to see if existing reservation customers are interested in upping their reservation figure to make this project possible/worthwhile

Then maybe calculate a higher price

Just one last ditch effort to make this project a reality

Thanks for listening

Can we keep this thread on topic w/ 40-2s (please )

I am flexible with my road names. I prefer W&LE but would also be interested in B&O (Chessie System) and CSX.

Any consideration for an SD40-2 with the special cooling package for the SP/SSW and Rio Grande fans.  Some even made it to the UP in 1996.

I know this is 3R Scale.  But one can dream....

Ok folks. Final push time. To contribute to the push, I’ve doubled my MP and Frisco reservations to 2 each. We need 275 reservations to maintain the $729 price. I could go to $750 but not higher !

Scott.  Give it another month to see how this reactivated thread uptick Relates to total reservations. If we can’t get to the needed reservations, put it to bed and move on. I’ll move some Reservation money to increase my Alco FA Position.

cheers 🤗

"After all this time we only have 190 reservations, only 1/2 of what is needed."

It seems like more than 275 reservations are needed.

Fours years have passed and we're only at 50%.

I will simply state that this is what usually happens on any 3rd rail diesel these days.  There is this huge push to get to minimal reservations and then once it get produced those who didn't reserve ask for a second run once photos go up of the model.

In the past it was possible to do things like pilot models.  That is not today's reality.  So in as that horrible 80's song goes when it comes to pre-ordering, "You gotta have faith!"

I just can't quite justify going above two orders myself with current pre-ordrs.  Maybe I could go one more on a 3r ATSF one for a pair, but the 2 rail Conrail one I pre-orded is way out of my 2 rail modeling era.  Especially true now that I picked up an old Gem PRR F-3 Mogul detailed for the 1920's for my layout.

Pondering ...  the ATSF SD40-2 does go well with the 3r era I model at my club.... decisions, decisions.

It is silly to have the conversation in general for such an iconic locomotive that has never really been done well at this scale remotely close to this price point.

Well shoot, I'll add another one this weekend after I finish my current assignment for Scott.

@sdmann posted:

BTW: Would you guys be mad if I dropped the SD40-2 for something more popular? After all this time we only have 190 reservations, only 1/2 of what is needed.  What could the new diesel be that many want?

Well I’ll never buy another Sunset mod...

Just kidding.  😇

My feelings won’t be hurt.  However, could you please keep the option open in the future to try again?  Maybe when all the dust settles from the closing of MTH and people start changing their ordering behaviors.

As for what to replace it, I don’t have a good sense of the things you’ve offered before, so forgive me if these have been done recently.

1. GE C39-8 Conrail (humpbacks!)
2. GE U33C Conrail
3. GE U25C PRR or Conrail
4. GE U28C PRR or Conrail
5. GE U23B Conrail
6. GE U30C PRR or Conrail (already done by MTH)
7. GE U25B PRR or Conrail (already done by MTH)

@GG1 4877 posted:

It is silly to have the conversation in general for such an iconic locomotive that has never really been done well at this scale remotely close to this price point.

Agree!  If we can't get enough orders for this, how can anything get made?

Maybe we just have to educate everyone on just how bad the other SD40-2 offerings are!