MTH Cancellations

Thanks for posting the list. I know things get cancelled from almost every catalog Probably a dumb question and may not be answerable, but do you have any idea what the reasons are for cancellations? Just not enough pre-orders or dealer orders to make a production run or could there be other problems like manufacturing, tooling, etc.? Just curious.

SEEMS like a larger than normal list. 

Wow, that's some list of cancellations!

The primary reason is insufficient dealer orders. I suspect there are some absurdly low order numbers behind some of the canceled items, as MTH has been known to make some unusually small-ish production runs from time to time. 

---PCJ

Whew, nothing from my pre-order list...yet!  Thanks Charlie and Chris!

- Mike

Thanks, kind of what I thought. I do like the fact that MTH does make a lot of the smaller unknown roads and more obscure stuff. Seems like a lot more variety here than with the other manufacturers and they are not all just the Eastern road names. They do have to make a profit in order to be able to keep making things for us though.   

No cancellations from my pre-order list this time, however.

Being honest with my thoughts only. Seeing these, and finding less and less, makes me wonder if I picked the right gauge?

Dang, that's one big list.

O scale has 14 items cancelled, which in reality breaks down into the 4 Sharknose AB sets and the four Sharknose non-powered A units, and 6 scale wheel items (which are most likely targeted toward the 2 rail market).

Unless one really wanted one of those PS 3.0 Sharknose sets, this is not much of a loss for traditional 3 rail O scale. Also if one were to look at sales on the Lionel Sharknose sets that might be clue to these being cancelled, I've seen them for under $400.00 from multiple vendors, 50% off, and nearly everyone seems to have them in stock. To many Sharks?  

HO is the clear loser here, with 23 items being cancelled.

Overall:

12 -- Tin Plate

14 -- US O Scale

12 -- European O Scale

3 -- Track

23 -- HO

4 -- 1 Gauge

Sure I think it may be more cancelled than in the catalog?

Whew! Thank goodness the SD70ACe's are still in the running. Thanks for the update.

One thing MTH and Lionel should think about. If you don't make it or have it you can't sell it.

HO is the clear loser here, with 23 items being cancelled.

Note that 15 of the cancelled HO items were "Protosound 3E+" locomotives.  These locomotives are designed for Marklin stud-rail (3-rail) HO track and won't run on traditional 2-rail HO layouts.

One thing MTH and Lionel should think about. If you don't make it or have it you can't sell it.

So your business model would be to produce items for which you know there is no current market (insufficient orders) and then HOPE that people decide that they really do want the stuff?  Or are you hoping for future blowout pricing?  Those days are about over.

The list might [ repeat, might ] be even longer:  If you look at the scale wheel equivalents of the European tank car 6-packs that were cancelled above on the MTH website, they still show a September delivery -- but when you hit "Find them" the screen doesn't change.  That might mean of course there are still direct sales through Busch, or it might not.

And actually European 0 is a leading loser, as these tank cars are THE new rolling stock in the catalogue.  Of course it's possible that Euro modellers want more prototypical paint schemes, not the boldest -- but one would think [ well, where MTH is concerned, hope ] that Busch had input on these.  To a certain extent MTH rolling stock has been better received in my opinion than their locomotives, at least in Germany, so these cancellations are surprising.....

Best, SZ

For most companies the days of producing things just to fill the shelves and wait for it to sell ended long ago. The train manufacturers are now catching up. Would not be surprised to see more 'build to order' in our future and no building at all if orders are not sufficient.

Me too!  Was worried as this thread opened!

Call it a market correction.

WOW that's looks like a lot, I'm glad I didn't have any of these ordered.

The first 12 items are Tinplate, and half of them are standard gauge.  All of the SG items are in the crackle finish...talk about a niche within a niche!

Jeff Davis

Initially it looks like a lot but there is only the Sharknoses in O gauge cancelled and a lot of the niche Standard gauge as others have pointed out.  When you consider everything in the O gauge catalog, I think MTH is doing pretty well.  What are the 70- items?  Anyone know? 

70- are railking 1 gauge items.

It’s the end of the line folks?

If MTH corresponded with the modelers and actually asked us what we would buy, it might be a

different story.

I would happily provide them money in advance to get an item I think we would like to have made.

Probably can’t generate enough capitol for the actual suppliers in this grim market place.

Holly Schmooly Batman! That is a wake up call! Even the much vaunted European market with supposedly great selling trains got the axe. HHHmmmm does this mean space trains and race car sets are right around the corner!!!

Nah, I think folks in O gauge may have enough Sharks and other items they do not really need and the economy is still the pitts.

Baby boomers are now being careful with money because a lot of them are starting to retire(me Shortly) so they are being more picky on what they are ordering like me from now on.

The manufactures need to come out with something exciting that we must have or we will put the money in the bank and go travel like to Vegas or some exotic land somewhere( by train). 

We are still in the golden age but it may not be 24 Karate gold.

Glass is still half full!

Are they producing the catalogs just to get bites to see if what is in it will sell, IF

they produce it?  Can be very disappointing, and downright enraging, if they don't.

Of course, I have no idea why they choose some of the stuff..."crackle finish??"

(I'm still enraged over cancellation of my last pre-order, some years ago, which has

not encouraged others)  It had better be something I am dying to own, to pre-order,

and then I will be psyched to expect disappointment if it never materializes.

Even though it's frustrating when they cancel one of your orders, your pre-orders will only increase the chances of something being made as far as having enough orders to produce it go. You could be assisting in the cancellation process by not pre-ordering.

The O Scale/O Gauge SD50s with High-Rail Wheels is what I am waiting to get.

Will the guys who did not get the Scale Wheels SD50 produced then purchase a High-Rail Wheels version instead?

Andrew

A rather disturbingly lengthy list, to be sure! 

This also makes it hard on hobby shops when they cancel orders like this. They can't sell trains if they can't get them.

I almost think MTH and Lionel should make smaller catalogs so they do not have to cancel as many items. 

I'm just happy the BM&R 2102 T-1 wasn't cancelled.  I'm not in a position to pre-order one, but I hope to purchase one when they drop.

If you add up the stuff offered across all of the catalogs, it's a terrifically large number. i think we lose track of how much they do make across product lines. 

No. I run 2 rail. I'm not going to go through all that work just to 2 rail it and still be left a model that has no cab interior and the China drive. I was on the fence about whether I wanted it or not in the first place. I went ahead an ordered one because I like SD50's. I'm just going to wait until I find a brass model now I think.

These and other companies cancellation are why I will not pre-order.  If they want to do a MTO (Made to Order) I will consider it if the item is exactly what I want and there is a reasonable delivery date, otherwise "in stock or no order".

Douglas

I imagine that you are not alone Douglas. I think there are a lot of people getting turned off.

 I'm still not sure that there is a difference between BTO and pre-order though. There are still economic minimums that need to be met for a project to be profitable. The difference seems to be in communication though. Take Scott Mann at 3rd rail for instance. He lets everyone know the status of the projects on basically a monthly basis. MTH brings out the catalog in what, April? but doesn't announce cancelations until the end of Aug. That is bound to cause frustration.

My friend and I have one simple rule with MTH... Until it shows up at my door or on a dealer's shelf somewhere, it doesn't exist. The catalog is a wish book full of vaporware- to borrow an IT term.

I cannot help but wonder if these cancellations are a flaw in the business model.

Pre-ordering without the guarantee of receiving what was ordered? I would think this is not a confidence builder in terms of the reliability of what is in a catalog. It's sort of setting oneself up to be possibly let down. Can anyone provide a case where another product is marketed this way? I can't think of one at the moment.

Joining in on this thread very late...   But as I see it, the cancellation list "appears" large simply because it's inclusive across MTH's entire product line (i.e., Standard Gauge, O-Gauge (USA and European), HO and #1). 

If we zoom in on the O-Gauge stuff, the Sharks jump right off the list at us.  Big deal.  Lionel overproduced those and has been trying (unsuccessfully) to blow them out for MONTHS now.  They even tried to offer them with "weathering", and I'm not sure how successful that was.  But by the looks of things, I don't think a critical mass of folks jumped on the weathered-bandwagon or we'd have heard more about that by now.  Customers just aren't interested.  Why MTH even catalog'd Sharks is a mystery -- given Lionel's over-saturation of the market with them.  So is anyone here THAT surprised to see these items withdrawn from production?     Sounds like a prudent call by MTH to hit the cancel button rather than have them collect dust. 

As for other O-Gauge items, the scale-wheels products venture into what I'd call "niche within a niche" territory.  And even though hi-rail and scale efforts appear more popular today than "toy train" themed layouts, I guess even the scale avenues have their limits when catalogs are produced with the thud factor of a New York City phone book.

All in all, the list appears ominous... but not terribly surprising when we peel away a few layers of the onion.  MTH is simply executing on stuff we've been discussing here all along... namely the super-saturation of a market where most of us already have more trains than we need to have fun in this hobby. 

How the importers market new product to us is only gonna get tougher and tougher, and may appear in various disguises.   I've been saying it all along that BTO (from the consumer's POV) is just marketing hype... and was just more or less a way to push the risk-factor away from the importer toward the consumer.  In actuality, the party holding the risk in the BTO model will be the dealers/distributors who've ordered "extra" units.  And if they elect to not order sufficient quantities of something, then the importers will cancel production.

David

The way I see it, In O gauge, it's a repetitive world.  In today's world of increasing cost, there's little extra money for window dressing.

Its no secret there's only so much that can be made in numbers great enough to profit and most of that has been made multiple times.  

What is worse, these companies are in competition with themselves in the secondary market where tonnage of nearly identical product exists at giveaway prices.

It's really surprising at current prices these companies can sell anything at all VS what is available used.  

Joe  

As soon as 3D printers get good enough/cheap enough I plan on doing just that. Maybe not a company, but at least for myself.

Is there a cost, other than the expense of printing and art work in the catalogs, when a company cancels an item. I would guess if they made a prototype there would be some additional cost.

Then again I think most of the catalog photos might be items from other scales.

As others have said, these cancellations are across multiple catalogs and scales/gauges that MTH produces. Each scale/gauge only has a few items cancelled. Some of the HO stuff was for Marklin 3 rail systems, possibly sort of an obscure system? There was really not a lot of O gauge cancelled and as others have said it seems Lionel has already over produced the ones cancelled. Then some European and 2 rail items were cancelled, not sure what is going on there? From following the OGR forums, I think the 2 rail market is pretty small as well as the standard gauge and tinplate market. Others here have stated this from time to time, which is what I am going by.

I took a quick look at the MTH 2014 v2 catalog and counted the number of different products available in just RailKing engines only. There were 70 items available to order in just that one category, RailKing engines. This got me to page 35 of the 178 page catalog. I don't see how a hand full of cancellations out of this many products is all that bad? As a percentage of items offered it is very small.

And as far as pre-ordering, I understand the frustration when a pre-ordered item is cancelled, I would be unhappy as well. However, by not pre-ordering, aren't you all kind of shooting yourselves in the foot so to speak? Seems like more pre-orders would help your cause, not hurt it. 

If you all pre-ordered the items you really want there may be enough for MTH to go ahead and produce the item. My guess would be that if the pre-orders came anywhere near the number required for MTH to profit from the run, they would go ahead and produce the item. Pretty sure they would risk a few extras if they came close to their required amount.

1 - cancellations are NOT false advertising.

2 - "finding less and less" - have you actually looked at all the O-gauge stuff out there -

not to bring in too much hyperbole, but some "used" and unused, NIB items selling for approaching pennies on the catalogue price dollar? I find more than I can even contemplate. A friend got, just yesterday, at online auction (the Usual) FOUR, NIB, Atlas

Master Line WM boxcars - for $99. Four. Twenty bucks apiece, for Atlas premier boxcars.

Cheaper than Industrial Rail. Yeah, "less and less".

The pre-order/cancellation is a chicken and egg situation. If the manufacturer goes ahead and produces everything in the catalog regardless of pre-orders, he's going to get stuck with a lot of unsold stock to blow out. If he floats a lot of items and cancels the ones that don't attract a lot of orders, then the people who did order are mad. If he cuts back and only catalogs what he's sure will sell, he's going to wind up with a very cramped product line. 

I like it that MTH will put up a trial balloon and see what happens. MTH has produced a far greater variety of road names in recent years than Lionel - if cancellations are the price of variety, I'm OK with that. I will miss those Euro tank cars, though - I was hoping to get a couple more tankers to run behind my Swiss Cargo electric. 

A good point, David!  At first glance the list looks terribly imposing, but when broken down into its various "pieces," it's a bit less so.  About the only impact I see on my planned purchases would be the #1 Gauge VO-1000.

With all the "complaints" did anyone actually lose an ordered item? Doubt it 

But the Pennsy H-10's would have  looked so good on the layout.

The canceled Pennsy H10's were Marklin HO stud rail compatible.

Rusty

Wrong! I had the NYC Shark Nose set on PO. Kinda bummed about it.

Didn't pre order anything because nothing I wanted was available in scale wheels anyway. Was greatly disappointed that the GG1 fast freight ordered 3 years ago arrived with tinplate wheels my order was for scale wheels

To my knowledge none of the sets are ever offered with scale wheels.

Well Jeff I did so you are incorrect.

My blue goose and my Hiawatha sets both came with scale wheels

I was thinking of doing something different for the Christmas layout and buying something new for myself ( maybe convince the wife)which I haven't done lately outside of the secondary market ( set break-ups). Out of total ignorance, does MTH have a Christmas season catalog and, if so, does it also follow the pre-order procedure in it's entirety or is it a safe bet? Also, would it arrive on time for Christmas, if there is a seasonal catalog? What would be the catalog number and \ or name? This would be for tinplate...

That's really interesting. What part #'s were those? I have never seen MTH put scale wheels on any of their US passenger cars. Both of the sets you mention came with Hi-Rail wheels according to the catalogs. If they actually came with scale wheels I would really be interested to know more as I've never seen or heard of a set coming with scale wheels.

Are you sure you aren't confusing Proto 3/2 capability with scale wheels?

Originally Posted by maint:
       WOW that's looks like a lot, I'm glad I didn't have any of these ordered.
 
Exactly, the reason they have been cancelled.

Jack

There is some NEW tooling in the new catalog due out in October. If you like any of them then pre-order them or they might not be made. 

Thanks. What is the turn around time for posting an item in a catalog and receiving word it will go through or be cancelled? I am thinking I might need a back-up selection.

It seems like there is a 4-6 month lag between catalog and announcement of cancelations. Although a friend of mine ordered the scale wheel NYC Mohawk and he was never notified that the version he ordered was cancelled. Jim Sutter had to contact MTH to find out if they were made or not and MTH wasn't even sure initially. So I guess it can vary.

Thanks..I thought it was a shorter turn around time.

It sounds like the previously mentioned October catalog ( Items produced ) then would not be confirmed until the following year. So then...would the current catalog be the one to go by in terms of Christmas delivery? Has this been confirmed in terms of the total items that will be produced? It sounds as if it has (?)

I pre-ordered an MTH Locomotive one month before its scheduled deliver but MTH pushed the delivery back 3 months then another 3 months and then no known amount of slip and no product. It was my first and last pre-order. I cancelled it! If it isn't on the shelf it isn't on my list of wants.

I have only been around O gauge trains for my current layout for a little over a year. Virtually all that I bought was MTH. The list of disappointments and problems with MTH is huge just for my little 7 x 9 layout, like new trains that develop problem, some right out of the box. New RealTrax track and switch problem galore. Cars that won't make the tight O-31 curves without modification that the spec's say they will. Also electronics that require extensive disassembly to replace blown fuses because the power brick circuit breaker is too slow acting. And other problems!

Unfortunately MTH is the the only game in town for me (My control system is DCS TIU/AIU). Yes, I finally got it all to work or fixed it (the RealTrax issues are impossible to totally fix and all I can do at this point is live with some track problems still).

The availability of any specific item is spotty so I always have to compromise. This is not as I thought it would be. Oh well, what I do have now works most of the time and you live and learn.

Would Lionel been any better???

I feel sorry for those of you who got caught up in this long cancellation list. At least they didn't string you along for months and months like they did my pre-order (It is not on the list).

LDBennett

I think the cancellation time above is about right. The pre-order time is shorter, only about a month or so, although I have gotten some pre-orders in much later than that. Those were probably fairly popular items and they had a good supply of them, or I might have missed out completely. 

The more pre-orders they have in their designated pre-order time limit, the better chance the item will have of being produced (as Charlienassau said above). I think that would be especially true if they had to make new tooling for the item. Older tooling might have a better chance of being made without the required amount of pre-orders.

So theres roughly a month to pre-order and roughly three to four months until the final production run is determined. When the final list of production items is determined, then how long is it for the item to be received? I should have asked this all in one question...duh. I do know it ( delivery) can vary based on comments here, but a general range might help. I appreciate the answers...it's a calculation I have not done before.

Hi Folks,

Except for the new products, the fact is that most of the items can be found on the used market.  Much of the stuff on the used market is new in the box and has never been run.  

There is a ton of stuff at every train show that I attend and most of it isn't selling.  The prices of most of the vendors are reasonable.  I know that I have stopped buying unless I can sell something that I already have.  I have more trains that I can use or run.

I don't blame MTH for canceling items where this is no demand.

The only thing that puzzles me is why MTH or Lionel would catalog an identical product where there is already an oversupply.  (I know that a Lionel Shark with Legacy is not exactly the same as a MTH Shark with PS-3.  How many people are going to buy both?  I would guess that most people on this forum run both Lionel and MTH engines on their layouts.)

In my opinion, there are too many Big Boys, Cab Forwards, F unit diesels, NYC Hudsons, and many more items.  I suppose it is difficult for a manufacturer to come up with a new model after the market is already saturated with older versions of the same prototype.

The only way for the market to pick up is for new people to take up the hobby.  This isn't happening in great enough numbers.

Joe

I tried to get my nephew into trains, even bought him a train set. He is more interested in playing video games. Doesn't run his trains anymore.

Hmmmmm.....

"Wow that's a lot."

'Wow, that's some list of cancellations!'

'Dang, that's one big list."

"WOW that's looks like a lot."

"It’s the end of the line folks? Holy Schmoly Batman! That is a wake up call! Even the much vaunted European market with supposedly great selling trains got the axe."

"A rather disturbingly lengthy list, to be sure!"

etc., etc., etc.

Sooooooo.....   Not having much else to do for the past 15 minutes, I grabbed my MTH 2014 Volume 2 cattlehog, sat down with an ice cold libation, turned to the pages featuring products beginning with 20- and/or 22-......and began counting. 

Lessee.....the cancellations list had a total of 26 numbers in the 20- and 22- category.

The 2014 Volume 2 cattlehog lists a total of 474 numbers in the same category between pages 69 and 160.

Doing the math, we find that this works out to a cancellation percentage of...

(drum roll, please)

5.48523206751055%

OR....looking at it from the other direction, they're planning on fulfilling orders for...

94.51476793248945% of their cattlehogged items.

Either way, I'd say MTH is doing quite well....considering the uncertainties of the local, state, and national economies, stagnant incomes, anemic job growth, an industry dependent on disposable () income, a broad product mix targeting uncertain regional acceptance, a continued high rate of labor turnover in China, multiple levels of independent, international participants in the entire 'dust-to-delivery' scheme of getting product into the hands of customers worldwide, rough seas and earthquakes, labor unrest, .....blah, blah, blah. 

But, then, that's just MHO.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...

KD 

Yes, approx. a month to pre-order. It seems like May 30th was the cut off date for the MTH 2014v2 catalog which came out at the spring York meet I think. This date was per my LHS.

Then as johnnyspeed said 4-6 months for cancellations. I took this to mean after the catalog comes out, but maybe he will clarify. I haven't had anything cancelled so I don't really know for sure there, but johnnyspeed has had items cancelled and probably has a better idea about timing on that. That's what I was going by.

As for when it's received, that is a completely unknown time. Example, I ordered a BNSF SD45 on 10/26/2013 from the 2014 v1 catalog. Original ship schedule was March 2014. It has just recently shipped and I think I will be getting it next week. I have had a few things arrive within a month or so of the scheduled ship date. Others a year or more. My LHS has been waiting on some items for well over a year. Some manufacturers have had big problems with the manufacturers in China, as you may know. 

So this part (when will I get it) is kind of a crap shoot. Lionel seems to have the same problems with scheduled ship dates, as does Atlas and probably all the others. We are just out in the guess when it will ship area this one.

My thoughts are they are all going to more of a build to order system (so to speak) so they don't get stuck with a lot of excess inventory sitting around. I think the more we pre-order and the sooner we do it will speed up these processes. If they reach their quota the item gets made. If they come close I think it will have a good chance. If they are way short it probably won't happen this time around. New tooling will probably have to meet their quotas or will not get made. However, I have no inside info on any of this.

My thoughts exactly, only I think you should have considered the entire catalog as we are talking different catalogs being represented in the list, not just product lines. The O gauge cancellations should be a percentage of all the O gauge cataloged. If you did that it would be a much smaller percentage. That's what I was trying to say in my earlier post above.

Okie-dokie!  I believe you have a good point!....

That adds another 202 items in the 30- section.

474 + 202 = 676.

The O gauge cattlehog cancellations (Locomotion and rolling stock, only) percentage would then be....   (Tympani roll, please!!) 

3.84615384615385%

OR....a fulfillment percentage of (gasp!) 96.15384615384615%

Yo, Sir Michael of Wolf!!!......

Gee, didn't expect you to actually do it, but thanks, that's great! Much better calculations there. Glad you agreed! I haven't been back in the hobby long, about 3 years or so, but one other thing I have noticed in that time is the catalogs are growing in number of pages. Don't want you to have to do more figuring, but that's another thing to consider also.   

Compared to 30-35+ years ago when I left the hobby, things today are amazing and the number of manufacturers, quantity, selection, electronics, controls etc. is still almost unbelievable (to me anyway). I'm adjusting, but I still think I'm dreaming sometimes. If only I had more money and more room, I'd have more trains. I almost wish they would have cancelled an item or two I had pre-ordered, then I might have a little money left for the next catalog that is coming all too soon. Notice I said 'almost'.

Thanks..

 I didn't want to post here but.....

the reason many 2 railers are alarmed is that they have been cancelling a lot of product. This is just the latest batch of additional cancellations.

 So the math is skewed unless you look at all the two rail announced and then cancelled. I too am becoming alarmed and paying closer attention.

Well the One-Gauge VO-1000 was cataloged about a year ago. It appears that MTH gave a year to place a pre-order before they cancelled it. Yes there was a 1 month dealer pre-order but MTH was taking online orders up until now.

look at this list! won't copy.

add premier

2014 v1

#22- prefix box

in this search pane

http://mthtrains.com/content/item-shipping-dates

there's a big list of scale wheels that got cancelled

I'm nervous because they left G scale for awhile. They did announce they're coming back. I'm still hopeful.

There have been some Christmas items in previous LCT catalogs.  If you want it for Christmas 2014, it's probably best to order something already in stock...otherwise it's anybody's guess when it will arrive.

Jeff Davis

I've been in the model train hobby for 10 years, but after 2006, i just forgot about it due to money issues, but in 2013 i got back into it and saved up some money and now besides two MTH non Powered subway cars that I've had for 10 years, i got the matching set and i also bought an Southern Pacific SD45T-2, just slowly saving up to build up my collection, it just takes time, im kinda glad that they're re-releasing some of the same products because for people like me and others who are in the hobby that are young would have a chance to get a product they have missed 

You make a good point. I actually had noticed there were a lot of 2 rail models cancelled, and not that many were offered to begin with. I think cancellations from the previous catalog were almost all 2 rail also, if I remember correctly.

I don't know enough about the differences between the 2 and 3 rail models, but I wouldn't think installing scale wheels in place of hi-rail wheels would be that hard at the factory? Is it the fixed pilots that make the big difference? I'm only 3 rail, so I really don't know anything about the 2 rail versions. Then there is the 3/2 versions which I don't know much about either, like how to convert them besides flipping the switches? I guess it's time to go look at the catalogs for further study.

The differences seem minor between the 3 rail and 2 rail models, but I bet they put a crimp in production scheduling.

Frankly, I think the 3 Rail Scale movement has take some of the wind out of the 2 rail market (and possibly the S Scale market.)  The 3RS guys are showing some pretty fine work these days and the presence of a third rail tends to be one of the last things one notices.

Rusty

Remember that Europe  has been in recession and may still be. Add to that their worries over Ukraine/Russia war and threat of ISIS terror attacks and those folks have a lot more on their plates right now than what MTH is producing in toy trains.