Mike Wolf to retire and close MTH

@PRRronbh posted:

But still have the same thought.  Lionel won!  What do I mean, the Name, Logo, and their toy train legacy (pun intended) will continue.  Where as MTH will most probably soon be scattered to the wind.  And I say this with great disappointment and as a BIG MTH fan. 

Cowen is gone, Kughn gone, Calabrese gone, Reagan gone, and Lionel even survived Maddox.  But Mike Wolf is retiring and to quote Wolf "and close the business."  .... some places I have work the top leaves but the company goes on. 

A critical deficiency in the MTH business model is precisely what killed it - one man at the top and no plan for continance, and nowhere for the company to go if he leaves. It has been striking to some that a 61-year-old owner who kept himself as sole owner, without an overall plan of succession, would "shut it down" in such a seemingly sudden manner. Plans for a partial succession continue to be unfolding, but so far it appears continued production of trains isn't part of it.

Death of the company is always a danger whenever there are no other ownership interests.  There are methods by which company owners - through stock plans to gradually give ownership interests to others with buyout provisions, for example - may provide that a company will stay in business. The Lionel model, completely different with outside ownership by Guggenheim Partners, assures continuity, at least to a reasonable degree, as shown by the retirement/exit of company presidents over time and succession by others taking their place. If Guggenheim decides to sell Lionel at some point in the future, well, who knows, but at this point they've owned it for a number of years and there's been no indication of any change anytime soon.

How much of MTH's abbreviated plan for continuance is being crafted ad hoc as they go along, we don't know, but hopefully things will work out to provide necessary continued support to hobbyists.

I'm sure somewhere in the 15 pages of this thread but I have a some thoughts that some may find worthwhile. 

1. It has rumored in the industry for several years that Mr. Wolf was seeking a buyer for the MTH product line.  One might simply consider that there wasn't a buyer interested in the full line of products and the name.  The company could have been offered to employees.  However understanding what a challenging business model O scale trains is, I can see a scenario where the employees may have seen a limited opportunity in taking over the entire company. 
2. Where is the value of a toy train manufacturer?  We want new tooling, we want new models, we want a lot period.  The currently tooling is showing it's age and a large investment would be required.  I would argue that for MTH it surely is in the technology.  It sounds like the current employees may decide to take that on and in doing so possibly expand into a lot of new arenas to support not only this hobby but others.
3. Some may have forgotten that Joe Hayter faced a similar issue at Weaver.  No one bought the company outright, but parts of the company live on in Lionel's Lionscale line as well at Atlas.  The products that have done well for MTH will likely offered by someone else down the road.  I have no inside knowledge of that, but it certainly likely.
4. Most importantly.  Mr. Wolf is entitled to a retirement.  He got to live his dream for many years in this industry with a lot of hard work and dedication.  I'm sure he'll be much happier when he doesn't have to see all the complaints on this forum.

None of this is meant as criticism at all towards MTH.  My experiences with the employees has always been pleasant and I wish everyone well as the future unfolds. 

@Landsteiner posted:

"Actually I remember thinking it was amazing lionel got away with bankruptcy and the lct agreement (I don't remember the rest of the details) and Mike didn't end up putting them truly out of business.   I avoided lionel products for years because of what they did.   "

With all due respect, there's another point of view, which is that these liability claims by MTH against Lionel were "alleged," never proven to a lot of people's satisfaction. As many folks like yourself who are convinced MTH got a raw deal are folks who felt the lawsuit was an attempt to win in the courts what could not be achieved in the marketplace.  So they did not buy MTH products for many years. 

Not worth litigating this again in the court of public opinion since it was settled in the courts and Lionel was not found liable in the negotiated settlement.  No one's opinion is likely to change 15-20 years after the events.  Best not to drag this up at this point, since it is divisive and settled.  Lionel and MTH went on to work together on the tinplate license, so best that hobbyists find some way to lay this to rest.

This is well-stated. Certainly at the time there was plenty of irritation with MTH as well, and feelings voiced that much of it was ego-driven and an attempt at market-grabbing. In any case, there appeared to be some straying from the "path of righteousness" by both sides, but that's long gone and the resolution was appreciated by all concerned. 

A number of years ago, even before the lawsuit, there were a fair number of vocal MTH advocates on this Forum who confidently predicted the end of Lionel and the coming dominance of MTH and its takeover of the o gauge market. Some predicted MW would buy Lionel. There were many who scoffed at this, quite correctly, looking back. There may have been a way that such a purchase could have happened, though. It may be fortunate that this merger never happened.

Such a combined company would probably have been more attractive to buyers, though. As it turned out, MTH alone was not "too big to fail," but too big not to fail. It had grown to the point that prospective purchasers deemed it economically unsustainable in the current market, and not worth the price they would have to pay. All this is just speculation, of course. 

I'm not intending to flame the debate over control systems, but what hasn't been mentioned; the patent on DCS will expire in 4 years.

@MikeH posted:

Too technologically advanced.  You're just asking for problems.  I'm sticking with wooden push trains. 

Re the last comment....

I still have the Skaneateles wooden train set Santa gave to me in the mid 40's.  (Quite a story around that, too!)

So, when everyone serving this corner of the hobby has dropped their fire, hung it up, called it quits.....pick a cliche..., and my MTHLCTATLLNLWBB3RDRL collection resides only on the shelves of the dusty man-cave for  gizmos and gadgetry gone awry and no longer available for resurrection, I may join you!  

OTOH, who am I kidding???   I have no intention or genetic substance for being around THAT long!

----------------------

So Mike Wolf is retiring at around 60 years young??   Good for him!  My corporate employer peeled the onion in 1997 when I was 53.  I kiddingly suggested they make an offer I couldn't refuse.  They did.  I didn't.  One year later I began a second, albeit casual, 'career'. 

Retiring at 54 after 31.5 years?.....HIGHLY recommended!  

Mike Wolf!.....You never have ceased to amaze me with your acumen!

Congratulations to Mike Wolf on his retirement.  This hobby would likely have died off 25 years ago if it wasn't for him bringing completion to the market.  Having said that, I think the canary is singing in the coal mine and this is the beginning of the end. I also think we should take Mike Wolf at his word that his company is closing for good.  if there was a white knight who was going to buy the company and keep it going it would have been announced by now. It isn't happening.  There is not a business case for a multimillionaire businessman to jump into the O gauge market. The situation in China, COVID and a rapidly aging and dying off customer base means no business case. MTH may own the tooling in China but good luck to a "new"  owner of MTH getting actual control of it.   I think DCS users are fortunate that support will continue... for a time but don't count on for more than a year or two. 

This will have ripple effects and will become a reinforcing factor to the continuing shrinking of the market.  I would keep an eye on those dealers that were on the margin of profitability.  We are going to see brick and mortar Hobby Shop owners already suffering  the COVID slow down and competitions from ebay throwing in the towel. This will also negatively impact train shows and it will be instructive to see what effect this has on York and the Orange Hall. Less hobby shops and smaller train shows will reduce the public's exposure to O gauge trains, thereby contributing to the market shrinking further. 

In the short term no one has to worry about finding trains to buy though. The secondary market is facing a glut of trains which of course keeps prices going ever so certainly down. If you look on ebay, good solid operator quality Postwar trains is starting to be sold in lots, almost by the pound.  It has become economically unfeasible to pay for someone to fix your postwar trains. Got a Lionel 646 Hudson that doesn't run that needs a new e-unit and some general work?  Go on ebay and buy a 646 that works for the same price that it would have cost to have an "old train guy" fix it for you.  In the not to distant future much of it will end up in a dump. Not because it doesn't work but because our heirs don't want it or want to be bothered.  Meanwhile any "new" train, Lionel or MTH can be purchased for far less than MSRP. Don't see it on ebay? Don't worry it will show up and will be available for a very attractive price.

Young people are not getting into the hobby at anywhere near the rate that is needed to sustain the hobby, much less grow it. And yes, I know that we all have a young person in our life that we have given trains to but even if that interest in trains sticks, none of them are going to have the funds for $1000 plus locomotives. They won't have the space to run them in their condos or apartments either. 

In a way the hobby has been a victim of it's own success. When I was growing up back in the 1970s "Lionel trains" was still seen by parents and kids as must have a must have toy to have while growing up.  If you didn't have your uncles trains, your parents picked up some postwar from a garage sale or a hobby shop. Your dad would set it up on a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood and off you went. The prominence of highly detailed and expensive trains that require huge real estate to run has changed that perception. "Lionel trains" (that's what the public still thinks of as O gauge) are no longer seen as a toy to be played with. These are museum quality models for serious adults, kids and their 8 by 4 plywood layout need not apply.  Sure kids like to watch them, but not of them are going to buy them and parents don't see them as toys anymore.

My guess is that Lionel is not celebrating the end of MTH either for all of the reasons above. The one that is going to hurt them the most is the continued shrinkage of the number of hobby shops.  The same business case dose of reality that hit MTH will come for Lionel too. When the current owners get tired of owning a high end scale model company I expect them to liquidate the company. There isn't a Richard Kughn out there to buy the company and sustain it. 

So, enjoy the hobby while it lasts a few more years but make your decisions on the reality that we are at the beginning of the end. 

@breezinup posted:

This is well-stated. Certainly at the time there was plenty of irritation with MTH as well, and feelings voiced that much of it was ego-driven and an attempt at market-grabbing. In any case, there appeared to be some straying from the "path of righteousness" by both sides, but that's long gone and the resolution was appreciated by all concerned. 

A number of years ago, even before the lawsuit, there were a fair number of vocal MTH advocates on this Forum who confidently predicted the end of Lionel and the coming dominance of MTH and its takeover of the o gauge market. Some predicted MW would buy Lionel. There were many who scoffed at this, quite correctly, looking back. There may have been a way that such a purchase could have happened, though. It may be fortunate that this merger never happened.

Such a combined company would probably have been more attractive to buyers, though. As it turned out, MTH alone was not "too big to fail," but too big not to fail. It had grown to the point that prospective purchasers deemed it economically unsustainable in the current market, and not worth the price they would have to pay. All this is just speculation, of course. 

The whole MTH/Lionel thing could have gone a number of ways.  Some people happened to be more right in their predictions than wrong, others more wrong.  Most weren't completely right or wrong.

Just like in the stock market, you can be wrong more than right and still make money.  This doesn't make anyone a good predictor of the future.  I would venture to say that if we as people to survive had to be right more than wrong, we wouldn't last very long.  We just tend as a whole to be resilient and stubborn, never as smart or savvy as we like to think.

On another note, this gloom and doom and wild predictions about everything is rather humorous.

MADOCKAWANDO, You have it right. To add to that, Soon the TCA York meet will go back to a almost all collector meet.

Over the years I have seen Mike Wolf at York and at his Maryland business and I have to say I have never seen a man with such devotion, passion, drive and enthusiasm toward his product and the respect he has toward his employees.  Mike has done so much good for the hobby as we all know and I find it hard to believe he would go into full retirement at this time.  I would not be surprised to hear that in the near future he would still have his pot in the fire.  He has certainly earned his retirement and I wish him the best.

@Madockawando posted:

Congratulations to Mike Wolf on his retirement.  This hobby would likely have died off 25 years ago if it wasn't for him bringing completion to the market.  Having said that, I think the canary is singing in the coal mine and this is the beginning of the end. I also think we should take Mike Wolf at his word that his company is closing for good.  if there was a white knight who was going to buy the company and keep it going it would have been announced by now. It isn't happening.  There is not a business case for a multimillionaire businessman to jump into the O gauge market. The situation in China, COVID and a rapidly aging and dying off customer base means no business case. MTH may own the tooling in China but good luck to a "new"  owner of MTH getting actual control of it.   I think DCS users are fortunate that support will continue... for a time but don't count on for more than a year or two. 

This will have ripple effects and will become a reinforcing factor to the continuing shrinking of the market.  I would keep an eye on those dealers that were on the margin of profitability.  We are going to see brick and mortar Hobby Shop owners already suffering  the COVID slow down and competitions from ebay throwing in the towel. This will also negatively impact train shows and it will be instructive to see what effect this has on York and the Orange Hall. Less hobby shops and smaller train shows will reduce the public's exposure to O gauge trains, thereby contributing to the market shrinking further. 

In the short term no one has to worry about finding trains to buy though. The secondary market is facing a glut of trains which of course keeps prices going ever so certainly down. If you look on ebay, good solid operator quality Postwar trains is starting to be sold in lots, almost by the pound.  It has become economically unfeasible to pay for someone to fix your postwar trains. Got a Lionel 646 Hudson that doesn't run that needs a new e-unit and some general work?  Go on ebay and buy a 646 that works for the same price that it would have cost to have an "old train guy" fix it for you.  In the not to distant future much of it will end up in a dump. Not because it doesn't work but because our heirs don't want it or want to be bothered.  Meanwhile any "new" train, Lionel or MTH can be purchased for far less than MSRP. Don't see it on ebay? Don't worry it will show up and will be available for a very attractive price.

Young people are not getting into the hobby at anywhere near the rate that is needed to sustain the hobby, much less grow it. And yes, I know that we all have a young person in our life that we have given trains to but even if that interest in trains sticks, none of them are going to have the funds for $1000 plus locomotives. They won't have the space to run them in their condos or apartments either. 

In a way the hobby has been a victim of it's own success. When I was growing up back in the 1970s "Lionel trains" was still seen by parents and kids as must have a must have toy to have while growing up.  If you didn't have your uncles trains, your parents picked up some postwar from a garage sale or a hobby shop. Your dad would set it up on a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood and off you went. The prominence of highly detailed and expensive trains that require huge real estate to run has changed that perception. "Lionel trains" (that's what the public still thinks of as O gauge) are no longer seen as a toy to be played with. These are museum quality models for serious adults, kids and their 8 by 4 plywood layout need not apply.  Sure kids like to watch them, but not of them are going to buy them and parents don't see them as toys anymore.

My guess is that Lionel is not celebrating the end of MTH either for all of the reasons above. The one that is going to hurt them the most is the continued shrinkage of the number of hobby shops.  The same business case dose of reality that hit MTH will come for Lionel too. When the current owners get tired of owning a high end scale model company I expect them to liquidate the company. There isn't a Richard Kughn out there to buy the company and sustain it. 

So, enjoy the hobby while it lasts a few more years but make your decisions on the reality that we are at the beginning of the end. 

A very thoughtful and well-reasoned analysis. While I don’t agree completely with you, you present a very plausible case for the ultimate demise of the hobby including Lionel itself. 

“Lionel” in the classic sense hasn’t existed since 1969. It is a popular tradename selling on its place in American culture. Since production moved to China in 2000 (and remember the early 80s Mexico move debacle?), it ceased to be an American manufacturing icon and became a marketing/distribution entity. The real and original “Lionel” died fifty years ago this year and, now that I think of it, I haven’t seen any special edition engines being offered to commemorate its passing. Odd.

So long as a sufficient number of consumers continue to have nostalgic feelings for the Lionel brand (mystique, even) it will chug along. Pun intended. 

Plus, MTH, for all its strengths and innovations, never ever had a mystique built around it like Lionel has. No other model railroad manufacturing company could or can. While we can mourn its passing, MTH is not a part of American culture and never could be. 

Wow! A lot of interesting topics. 

Mike,

Have a great retirement.  For me, I love, and probably have, a majority of Pittsburgh cars you have produced over the years.  From KDKA, Heinz, Pittsburgh Brewing, Isaly's, Pirates, Steelers (even though you are a Ravens Fan), Eat N Park (were most of my family worked in our early years), plus all the steel companies, and local railroads. I enjoy them all.  Now that you are retiring, well deserved, who will be out there with the vision you had offering the local named freight from many areas in the US?  You had a open ear for all us crazy train lovers and time and time again you came through for us.  You produced quality trains for the vast majority of our hobby and kept them at affordable prices.  Oh, I never had issues with DCS from the first system I bought, even though I still like the hand held controller.  You were willing to take risk in your offerings to please us many times.  Some, I am sure you regretted.  My wish, and a majority of the forum members, is that your legacy and MTH can live on.  Thank you for giving your employees the opportunity to continue with DCS along with the hope they will still produce PS3 boards.   Your love for tinplate re-energized this segment of our hobby.  I can continue on and on but I am sure, all your love for the hobby will not end with your retirement.

@Carl Peduzzi posted:

Forgive me, but I must ask as I can’t tell, is this sarcasm?

So many opinions have been expressed (positive and negative) in this thread, and I have just lost track.

Yes

@PRRronbh posted:

...................

edit:  What surprises and shocks me the most is that Mike Wolf would allow his creation that he worked so hard at to wither and most probably die.  Now maybe there was a cost benefit analysis that showed limited future prospects for the O-Gauge hobby!  

While this is obviously on a much larger scale, this seems almost like a parallel thought on a train collector not "letting go" of  a collection they had built over a lifetime until they could find a single buyer that would keep it intact (a VERY tall order).  How many people have waited too long for that perfect scenario, only to never realize it, only getting older (or worse) while waiting?  Sometimes the "decent" scenario is better than waiting for a "perfect" scenario that will likely never play out.

Earlier posts mentioned the sale of the building.  Depending on details that are not any of our business , the building may have in fact worked out to be the most decent option for a retirement plan.  Breaking up smaller parts of the product or service aspects of the business that may be worthwhile as smaller investments for some of the employees may be the best scenario practical. 

-Dave

@breezinup posted:

A critical deficiency in the MTH business model is precisely what killed it - one man at the top and no plan for continance, and nowhere for the company to go if he leaves. It has been striking to some that a 61-year-old owner who kept himself as sole owner, without an overall plan of succession, would "shut it down" in such a seemingly sudden manner. Plans for a partial succession continue to be unfolding, but so far it appears continued production of trains isn't part of it.

Death of the company is always a danger whenever there are no other ownership interests.  There are methods by which company owners - through stock plans to gradually give ownership interests to others with buyout provisions, for example - may provide that a company will stay in business. The Lionel model, completely different with outside ownership by Guggenheim Partners, assures continuity, at least to a reasonable degree, as shown by the retirement/exit of company presidents over time and succession by others taking their place. If Guggenheim decides to sell Lionel at some point in the future, well, who knows, but at this point they've owned it for a number of years and there's been no indication of any change anytime soon.

How much of MTH's abbreviated plan for continuance is being crafted ad hoc as they go along, we don't know, but hopefully things will work out to provide necessary continued support to hobbyists.

I don't think a lack of planning is necessarily to blame, as you suggest.  One gigantic advantage Lionel has is that it is synonymous with toy trains and the holidays.  That name is what likely attracted private investors as it is perceived as the most premium and well know brand in the entire train hobby. As much as MTH may have been respected by seasoned hobbyists it was not known outside the hobby.  To take one small example, it probably gives Lionel an advantage to get things like the Polar Express franchise.  And it allows Lionel to charge $1,000 for a Lionmaster big boy when MTH charges $600-$700 for basically the same locomotive.  That additional margin on the product is due to the name and the value of the franchise.   Premium market position always has value to outside investors and this is why Lionel has changed hands multiple times over the years.  Cowen was no better on planning than Mike, it is just that he developed a franchise synonymous with Christmas.  Magic in a box.  That mystique continues and it is why that so long as there is any remnant of profit in O gauge, Lionel will be best positioned to take it because of the name and history of the firm.

IMHO, The unwinding started at the beginning of the lawsuits. Regardless, of MTH's right to sue over patents being violated.  I believe it alienated a lot of train enthusiast. Also, regardless or not if DCS had more features then TMCC at the time. Or, even at the release of legacy. There always seemed to be operational issues.

Frankly, that is the one factor that steered me away! But, items like Mel's Diner, McDonalds and others. Certainly, some products that will always bring back a fond memory of MTH. Some, items that may never have be been produced by other manufacturers.

I wish him a long and happy life and retirement. Hopefully, he still gets the bug.....and we will see him at York once in a while...

@Dave Warburton posted:

Plus, MTH, for all its strengths and innovations, never ever had a mystique built around it like Lionel has. No other model railroad manufacturing company could or can. While we can mourn its passing, MTH is not a part of American culture and never could be. 

Agreed. All the others [Weaver, Sunset models/Golden Gate Depot, Right of Way industries, K-line, Atlas O ] Have a VERY HARD time [New product or a rerun] in Sales of items. In O gauge everyone looks at Lionel.  Even the train industry as a whole, ask any non model train enthusiast about model trains, 8 out of 10 the response in Lionel trains.

@Madockawando posted:

Congratulations to Mike Wolf on his retirement.  This hobby would likely have died off 25 years ago if it wasn't for him bringing completion to the market.  Having said that, I think the canary is singing in the coal mine and this is the beginning of the end. I also think we should take Mike Wolf at his word that his company is closing for good.  if there was a white knight who was going to buy the company and keep it going it would have been announced by now. It isn't happening.  There is not a business case for a multimillionaire businessman to jump into the O gauge market. The situation in China, COVID and a rapidly aging and dying off customer base means no business case. MTH may own the tooling in China but good luck to a "new"  owner of MTH getting actual control of it.   I think DCS users are fortunate that support will continue... for a time but don't count on for more than a year or two. 

This will have ripple effects and will become a reinforcing factor to the continuing shrinking of the market.  I would keep an eye on those dealers that were on the margin of profitability.  We are going to see brick and mortar Hobby Shop owners already suffering  the COVID slow down and competitions from ebay throwing in the towel. This will also negatively impact train shows and it will be instructive to see what effect this has on York and the Orange Hall. Less hobby shops and smaller train shows will reduce the public's exposure to O gauge trains, thereby contributing to the market shrinking further. 

In the short term no one has to worry about finding trains to buy though. The secondary market is facing a glut of trains which of course keeps prices going ever so certainly down. If you look on ebay, good solid operator quality Postwar trains is starting to be sold in lots, almost by the pound.  It has become economically unfeasible to pay for someone to fix your postwar trains. Got a Lionel 646 Hudson that doesn't run that needs a new e-unit and some general work?  Go on ebay and buy a 646 that works for the same price that it would have cost to have an "old train guy" fix it for you.  In the not to distant future much of it will end up in a dump. Not because it doesn't work but because our heirs don't want it or want to be bothered.  Meanwhile any "new" train, Lionel or MTH can be purchased for far less than MSRP. Don't see it on ebay? Don't worry it will show up and will be available for a very attractive price.

Young people are not getting into the hobby at anywhere near the rate that is needed to sustain the hobby, much less grow it. And yes, I know that we all have a young person in our life that we have given trains to but even if that interest in trains sticks, none of them are going to have the funds for $1000 plus locomotives. They won't have the space to run them in their condos or apartments either. 

In a way the hobby has been a victim of it's own success. When I was growing up back in the 1970s "Lionel trains" was still seen by parents and kids as must have a must have toy to have while growing up.  If you didn't have your uncles trains, your parents picked up some postwar from a garage sale or a hobby shop. Your dad would set it up on a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood and off you went. The prominence of highly detailed and expensive trains that require huge real estate to run has changed that perception. "Lionel trains" (that's what the public still thinks of as O gauge) are no longer seen as a toy to be played with. These are museum quality models for serious adults, kids and their 8 by 4 plywood layout need not apply.  Sure kids like to watch them, but not of them are going to buy them and parents don't see them as toys anymore.

My guess is that Lionel is not celebrating the end of MTH either for all of the reasons above. The one that is going to hurt them the most is the continued shrinkage of the number of hobby shops.  The same business case dose of reality that hit MTH will come for Lionel too. When the current owners get tired of owning a high end scale model company I expect them to liquidate the company. There isn't a Richard Kughn out there to buy the company and sustain it. 

So, enjoy the hobby while it lasts a few more years but make your decisions on the reality that we are at the beginning of the end. 

I think you and I are pretty much on the same page here. I've continued to think about this topic, as it directly impacts those of us who would could theoretically still be in this gauge 20-30 years from now if the trajectory of popularity was different.

Like you, if things run their current course without something positive and unforeseen happening (and I'm rooting for that possibility) I think the closure of MTH will have a distinct ripple effect. I expect to see Atlas and Williams bump up production slightly, or even more if they buy some tooling, but 10 years from now I expect they will both be out of O scale. In 10 years, I expect that Lionel will significantly curtail its scale runs, and eventually cut them off entirely except for one or two "special edition" product releases once a year. The scale market will be left to places like Sunset/3rd Rail with very limited runs and prices will be two to three times what an MTH premier engine would have cost. 

I anticipate that the Lionel Vision line will retire entirely, and Legacy and LionChief will merge into a common product that is more limited and simpler to use than Legacy, but more full featured than LionChief, and will be ONLY tablet/smartphone controlled if you want anything more than basic LionChief remote functionality. DCS will live on for a few years, but once Atlas and Williams drop out, you'll only find it on those limited runs of Sunset/3rd Rail, if it's even available at all at that point. 

While the future of O Scale looks bleak and life-support-esque, I don't think it's the end of O Gauge. I think we'll still see ready-to-run sets and entry level rolling stock for the foreseeable future, but it'll all be Lionel, and it'll be on the LionChief/Legacy hybrid platform, and it will be a market entirely supported by birthdays and Christmas and buttressed by Polar/Disney/Scooby/Thomas/etc licenses just like we see today.

The one place I think we differ in opinion is on the likelihood that this current trajectory will continue. I am very Pollyanna in my outlook in life, admittedly, but I believe that the tide can be turned for O Scale if companies like Lionel, Atlas, and Williams were to make some drastic changes in their vision of the future to cater directly to millennials rather than to rely on baby boomer income, that O scale would survive, just as a different animal. 

Every engine manufacturer will need to adopt DCC and 2-rail as the primary market. It would be a hard switch, but it's a hill that must be overcome for the vast majority of prospective customers who are not baby boomers. And I say this as a died-in-the-wool 3-railer. I don't even own a single 2-rail piece of equipment, but I know that if this hobby survives, I'm going to be converting as much equipment as possible to 2-rail in about 10-15 years.

They'd need to embrace smartphone and tablet technologies completely differently than what they're currently doing (the current control-only apps are not a compelling selling feature to a millennial). The idea of a hardware remote that's anything more than a LionChief remote needs to go away very quickly--anything more than LionChief needs to live in an app.  AR needs to play a big role in layout construction, product shopping, and in train operation.

The idea of a catalog needs to go away entirely. The products need to be sold almost exclusively online, and through as many generalized online resellers as possible (Amazon, Target, Walmart, etc). This means redirecting investment away from dealers and creating new relationships and markets with buyers.

Most repairs will need to be handled by mail-in.

The dedicated brick and mortar dealer footprint will evaporate no matter what, so dealer licenses will need to no longer have the brick and mortar requirement. 

TCA needs to either die off with the baby boomers or completely reinvent itself. Look to the video game hobby as a model--it's thriving, both in retro and modern gaming. Speaking as a hobbyist in both groups, the parallels from the video game hobbyist community to model train communities from the 70's and 80's is shocking. 

Others have rightly pointed out that kids/teens today have a much wider buffet of entertainment/hobby/extracurricular options than they did in the 50's and 60's, and even in the 80's and 90's when I was growing up. That's the hard truth. But it doesn't mean that we can't have a hobby where kids and teens are on O gauge and given the right incentives, and where college grads and young professionals have a good amount of O scale. I'm living proof as I acquired the majority of my collection during my 20's and 30's--it's doable if you tune your R&D and marketing appropriately.

Time's going to tell, of course, and perhaps I'm too Pollyanna, but I have hope. What I do know and what I agree with you 100% on here is that O scale is effectively doomed to a very limited production market in 10-20 years if Lionel, Atlas, Williams, TCA, and others don't sound an internal alarm and make some hard, painful moves right now.

The only MTH products I own are RailKing passenger cars because, IMO, they are the best semi-scale you can buy. And the MTH passenger car passengers (mine were bags of unpainted ones) are the perfect fit for the seats.

I never met Mike Wolf, but I hope to do so one day.

It just occurred to me that Mike Wolf is the Joshua Lionel Cowen of our time.

From all I know about Joshua Lionel Cowen, he was a great man.

Arnold

I beg pardon if I missed it, there are now 16 pages of comments.  I haven't seen much discussion about Scaletrax continuing, a track system that is loved by many and considered by some the best track system available in O (for various good reasons).   If the tooling for making Scaletrax is available to continue, I wonder if it could be marketed by another group of investors.   Seems like there have been problems with availability in the past, chalked-up to issues with the manufacturer in China.   An insight or opinions?

There has been no mention by MTH of Scaletrax or Realtrax specifically.  The only product line addressed specifically has been PS3 and DCS equipment, software, and boards.

I love Scaletrax personally.  It's a great track system that in 3 rail comes with the most realistic look.  The lower height rails with the blackened thin center rail help present a better stage for our trains.  It will be a shame if lost for sure.  The pricing was also reasonable.  The other thing is that using the Scaletrax flex is really a pleasure.  I followed Rich Batista's video on bending a lying the flex which worked fantastically.  My only complain is that the ties could be spaced a tad closer.  However, due to their size and everything else, once ballasted the spacing issue kind of disappears in your mind.

Scaletrax thin blade center rail is the best out there if you can find it. Looks like a modern day Super O.

Only issue is there were no 036 curves produced. You have to adjust height and solder 036 Atlas O to it. Lots of Dremal tool work needed as well.

I don't know how the general folks can even build a layout today due to limited availability and limitations of offered products. 

https://ogrforum.ogaugerr.com/...5#146142158556209135

It would be interesting to see what Menards' take on the future of the hobby is.  Obviously they jumped in pretty deep recently, though at the low end, price-wise and no line of engines.  But they have a massive presence in the market place with their stores and dipping their toes in the water by making their own stuff must have had an affect on our hobby, right?  They must sell a lot of stuff around Christmas (starter sets) because they dedicate a whole aisle towards O gauge and ho stuff.  

Also, I am a huge fan of  Lemax and Dept. 56 stuff.  This IS O gauge.  Halloween and Christmas displays with O Gauge are awesome.  

And where people put these displays, trains pop up here and there.  With Menards and Michaels having these displays, I cannot believe they don't create o gauge interest/awareness on some level, some times. Lemax has battery operated trains.  If one were to start with that, I can imaging that might get boring and open the doors to an O Gauge starter set.  Why isn't Lionel, Atlas O, and MTH teaming up with those companies?  I know K-line dabbled because they HAD Lemax buildings/accessories branded as K-Line.

@SIRT posted:

Scaletrax thin blade center rail is the best out there if you can find it. Looks like a modern day Super O.

Only issue is there were no 036 curves produced. You have to adjust height and solder 036 Atlas O to it. Lots of Dremal tool work needed as well.

I don't know how the general folks can even build a layout today due to limited availability and limitations of offered products. 

Was it possible or not to bend the flex to O36?  I haven't tried or had need for that so don't know.  Tightest bend I did if recollection is correct was another layout and around O65 or so.

Most flex track seems to have difficulty bending to those tight radius's.

@romiller49 posted:

After 40 years of ownership it’s safe to say Mike most likely just got tired. I commend him for getting out while on top. When he wakes up on June 1st 2021 he will experience a wonderful feeling of relaxation and will be very happy that someone else will have to worry about the model train business. Don’t look back Mike.

Except he is not on top, is he? Haven't sales been going down and the company has downsized? Maybe this was strictly a business decision. I don't know, just speculating.

@Madockawando posted:

Congratulations to Mike Wolf on his retirement.  This hobby would likely have died off 25 years ago if it wasn't for him bringing completion to the market. 

I don't agree. 25 years ago was the peak period of boomers and those slightly older reentering the hobby. There was a demand and MTH filled it, along with Lionel, Weaver, Williams, 3rd Rail, and eventually Atlas. If MTH hadn't come along, someone else would have filled the need.

MTH didn't create the market. The hobby wouldn't have died off. Nor will it now. It may contract and will certainly evolve. The hobby would look very different without MTH's arrival, agreed, but I think it would still have grown.

I'll certainly miss MTH, along with Weaver and K-Line to name a few.  I'm not going to abandon the hobby because one supplier called it quits.

@TexasSP posted:

Was it possible or not to bend the flex to O36?  I haven't tried or had need for that so don't know.  Tightest bend I did if recollection is correct was another layout and around O65 or so.

FWIW I have bent Gargraves to 016 (diameter) in an attempt to see if I could run a trolley around a city corner. No doubt MTH track could do 036. Just make a template to bend it around.

Now back to your usual scheduled bickering.

Pete

I'm 66 now and have downsized from a 4100 sq ft home to a 1700 sq foot home. I've never had a fixed layout, always temporary because I like to change it up and I really just like toy trains. I can imagine though, that as I age the bride and I may downsize again, and if that happens, most o gauge will have to go, although perhaps I'd be able to keep a few starter sets, including the old postwar engine from my childhood. I can see myself transitioning to n gauge, which I've had before, and can easily be set up on top of the kitchen table, or on a folding 6 foot table. 

I have a Subway set on order, but I also have an N gauge starter set on order. My hobby dollars may begin to be funneled into the latter, although, I am ALWAYS tempted by those Lionchief starter sets, which are just too much fun--when they work :-).

If there actually is a generation behind us modeling o gauge, stand by for a waterfall of opportunities to pick up trains at a bargain when the scenario I mentioned above transpires for thousands of us. Lately I've even been of the mind that I should just give them away to anyone younger who is interested.

@Norton posted:

FWIW I have bent Gargraves to 016 (diameter) in an attempt to see if I could run a trolley around a city corner. No doubt MTH track could do 036. Just make a template to bend it around.

I'm suitably impressed, I had no idea that Gargraves would bend that much without major issues!

Maybe Mike Wolf can sell it to Mike Reagan. Then they won’t have to change the name. 

I’ll just let that sink in a bit. 

When Lionel started cranking out big scale steam in the early 2000s, it was inevitable that MTH would eventually fold. Mike knew he'd never win against a resurgent Lionel that was making a serious effort to compete in the realm that he had almost all to himself at the time. The first humble RS-11s with TMCC and Odyssey and the JLC Challengers were the first models that really stood out for that early post-modern period that helped define Lionel's commitment to the scale market. It made sense that Mike would try to fight it out in court (over practices that were probably business as usual with overseas suppliers) because he knew Lionel only had to match his models and make them just good enough to seriously erode his business. The thing is, Lionel actually made a lot of their models better at the time, especially in the case of the JLC articulateds. After the settlement, it also made sense that MTH would try to diversify their product line but it was only to make up for his losses in O gauge.

Mike did kick some a** though, and it was a fun time to be into trains during the train wars.  I feel bad for his fans and his dealers though. I hope he enjoys his retirement and writes a book. 

@MartyE posted:

Maybe Mike Wolf can sell it to Mike Reagan.

That would be great!

MELGAR

"

Maybe Mike Wolf can sell it to Mike Reagan.

That would be great!"

My guess is Marty was making this comment in jest. 

Someone who knows Mike Reagan quite well told a group of us that he is exceedingly happy in his current professional situation (TW Trainworks).  It's hard to imagine him viewing an opportunity to re-immerse himself in the administration of a small corporation and making frequent trips to China with any enthusiasm whatsoever.  But feel free to ask the man himself. He makes his email freely available, courageous dude that he is. Hopefully he would be flattered, perhaps amused and who knows, even interested if someone else put up the money. I know I would .

Ever been to one of OGRs grandstand meetings at York and watched Andy E and Mike R go at each other when Mike was still at Lionel? Imagine their board room meetings if Mike R went to MTH.

Pete

@TexasSP posted:

Was it possible or not to bend the flex to O36?  I haven't tried or had need for that so don't know.  Tightest bend I did if recollection is correct was another layout and around O65 or so.

Atlas o 21st century are fixed curves. I could have bent the flex MTH scale trax but it would be risky to bend any track to 036. Just would not work since Atlas curves are perfect. A little shimming along with soldering the joints. I also jumped the out side rails together for trouble free operation as on my main layout.

I'm inserting the black paper black top strips over the built up sticks on the Atlas curves right now for the 3rd rail camo street look!

@eddie g posted:

MADOCKAWANDO, You have it right. To add to that, Soon the TCA York meet will go back to a almost all collector meet.

An all  collector meet with no dealers selling new stuff.  Just a bunch of old fools selling old stuff.  The future of the hobby!!!!

@Landsteiner posted:

"My guess is Marty was making this comment in jest. “

The conversation was getting stale. Thought I’d liven it up a little. Lol. 

I wish @MTH Mike Wolf well in his retirement and thanks for the many, many items that fill my layout and shelves in my basement and provided me and my family many hours of happiness and entertainment in this hobby.  I do especially hope everyone at MTH has a good transition and/or soft landing to continue, if they so desire, to do what makes them happy.

It would be great if MTH continues in some form or another.  However, IMO the continuation of the whole company as it currently stands (design, technology, production, distribution, servicing, parts, support, etc.) will likely be much more difficult to do going forward.  The world we now live, work and play is so much different than it was back in the 1980's and '90's.  The ever increasing off-shore production challenges specifically but not limited to increased subcontracting, minimum production order quantities, production scheduling, pricing  & currency exchange mitigation, quality control supervision and more recently tariffs create great demands upon those taking on this endeavor who then must sell to a shrinking, but always demanding market base.  To further complicate matters for an employees buyout would be if the new ownership is leveraged through a private equity investment group or PIG.  The PIG likely has no personal interest in "the model train hobby" but rather their investment's EBITDA and how those numbers can benefit their OVERALL portfolio of invested companies.  Private Investment Groups demand much higher return on investment or equity percentages in much shorter time-frames that are unlike this hobby traditionally produces.  Thus making the day to day process for those who work in that toy train company even more challenging because of the restrictions placed upon them, but not just limited to decision autonomy and budget ...does this sound familiar to anyone?  Ask yourself what company (ies) do we know who went from having a strong and enthusiastic owner to one that later became part of a multi-company investment group and what benefits and drawbacks did such a change produce?  Making a profit is sometimes is not enough when ownership believes that their investment money can get higher returns elsewhere or when the parts are worth more than the whole.

FWIW and that won't buy you a cup of coffee nor even a penny candy (which is now a nickel at Wegmans) and maybe it's my personal judgement bias coming through, but I don't see the remaining MTH senior management nor even Mike Reagan being interested in the model train design, manufacturing import and selling business where there is less and less control in the process and an aging and shrinking customer base that seems to have something to complain about 50% of the time combined with steady and plentiful supply of new, near new and used product available on the secondary market.  I think Mike Reagan's move to Trainworx was extremely smart and with great foresight.  Providing layout design, construction, in-house built structures and after warranty train repair service and support to those that want and can afford fills a void that is not addressed by any train importing company and the increasing number of hobbyists that don't have the time, desire or skill to do these needed functions in a fast shrinking retail train hobby shop world.

@Arnold D. Cribari posted:

I never met Mike Wolf, but I hope to do so one day.

It just occurred to me that Mike Wolf is the Joshua Lionel Cowen of our time.

From all I know about Joshua Lionel Cowen, he was a great man.

Arnold

Arnold ,the big difference between the two is that Mike is one of us, a train guy. According to most reports Mr Cowen had no interest in model trains other than selling them. Ether way, I am grateful to both of them, for making our hobby their life’s work.

Brad

@Madockawando posted:

Congratulations to Mike Wolf on his retirement.  This hobby would likely have died off 25 years ago if it wasn't for him bringing completion to the market.  Having said that, I think the canary is singing in the coal mine and this is the beginning of the end. I also think we should take Mike Wolf at his word that his company is closing for good.  if there was a white knight who was going to buy the company and keep it going it would have been announced by now. It isn't happening.  There is not a business case for a multimillionaire businessman to jump into the O gauge market. The situation in China, COVID and a rapidly aging and dying off customer base means no business case. MTH may own the tooling in China but good luck to a "new"  owner of MTH getting actual control of it.   I think DCS users are fortunate that support will continue... for a time but don't count on for more than a year or two. 

This will have ripple effects and will become a reinforcing factor to the continuing shrinking of the market.  I would keep an eye on those dealers that were on the margin of profitability.  We are going to see brick and mortar Hobby Shop owners already suffering  the COVID slow down and competitions from ebay throwing in the towel. This will also negatively impact train shows and it will be instructive to see what effect this has on York and the Orange Hall. Less hobby shops and smaller train shows will reduce the public's exposure to O gauge trains, thereby contributing to the market shrinking further. 

In the short term no one has to worry about finding trains to buy though. The secondary market is facing a glut of trains which of course keeps prices going ever so certainly down. If you look on ebay, good solid operator quality Postwar trains is starting to be sold in lots, almost by the pound.  It has become economically unfeasible to pay for someone to fix your postwar trains. Got a Lionel 646 Hudson that doesn't run that needs a new e-unit and some general work?  Go on ebay and buy a 646 that works for the same price that it would have cost to have an "old train guy" fix it for you.  In the not to distant future much of it will end up in a dump. Not because it doesn't work but because our heirs don't want it or want to be bothered.  Meanwhile any "new" train, Lionel or MTH can be purchased for far less than MSRP. Don't see it on ebay? Don't worry it will show up and will be available for a very attractive price.

Young people are not getting into the hobby at anywhere near the rate that is needed to sustain the hobby, much less grow it. And yes, I know that we all have a young person in our life that we have given trains to but even if that interest in trains sticks, none of them are going to have the funds for $1000 plus locomotives. They won't have the space to run them in their condos or apartments either. 

In a way the hobby has been a victim of it's own success. When I was growing up back in the 1970s "Lionel trains" was still seen by parents and kids as must have a must have toy to have while growing up.  If you didn't have your uncles trains, your parents picked up some postwar from a garage sale or a hobby shop. Your dad would set it up on a 4 by 8 sheet of plywood and off you went. The prominence of highly detailed and expensive trains that require huge real estate to run has changed that perception. "Lionel trains" (that's what the public still thinks of as O gauge) are no longer seen as a toy to be played with. These are museum quality models for serious adults, kids and their 8 by 4 plywood layout need not apply.  Sure kids like to watch them, but not of them are going to buy them and parents don't see them as toys anymore.

My guess is that Lionel is not celebrating the end of MTH either for all of the reasons above. The one that is going to hurt them the most is the continued shrinkage of the number of hobby shops.  The same business case dose of reality that hit MTH will come for Lionel too. When the current owners get tired of owning a high end scale model company I expect them to liquidate the company. There isn't a Richard Kughn out there to buy the company and sustain it. 

So, enjoy the hobby while it lasts a few more years but make your decisions on the reality that we are at the beginning of the end. 

So...Mr. Bolton....what are you doing to support the small businesses in the hobby....?  I just checked and I don't see you in our subscriber base.  With the doom and gloom in your post above, why don't we all just bite the bullet and give up? 

Guys...their are two ways to look at this announcement:  You can take the example of what do you think of when you look at a glass with the water at the mid point within the glass.  Is it half empty or half full?  This hobby is going to survive and so will certain aspects of MTH.  There have been relatively new players that have appeared over the years...most recently think:  MENARDS. 

What we are seeing and have been seeing for quite a few years is our hobby evolve and those that can't or don't evolve will not survive.  As I wrote several months ago, we at OGR are seeing the forum membership grow from about 100-150 applications per month to 500-750 on average over the last few years.  We have seen the average page views increase by almost 2 million per month over a few years ago.  Over the past couple of years, our subscription base has been fairly steady...not the growth that we would like...but for those of you that don't support the few publications in this hobby, you are also not supporting the small businesses that are trying to sell their product in order to stay in business....especially since our demographic seems to prefer holding a print magazine while they read about their favorite hobby.  So....some of this doom and gloom about our hobby may be self inflicted.  Regardless....we have seen companies come and go throughout the years in the model railroading hobby....in all scales....and the hobby is still here and will be here long after MOST of us have "retired" permanently.  I suggest that you support those businesses that are offering product...and....a shameless plug (again).... a one year subscription costs less than one boxcar no matter what publication. 

By the way....I am looking at that glass of water and it is still half full....

@pdxtrains posted:

I'm 66 now and have downsized from a 4100 sq ft home to a 1700 sq foot home. I've never had a fixed layout, always temporary because I like to change it up and I really just like toy trains. I can imagine though, that as I age the bride and I may downsize again, and if that happens, most o gauge will have to go, although perhaps I'd be able to keep a few starter sets, including the old postwar engine from my childhood. I can see myself transitioning to n gauge, which I've had before, and can easily be set up on top of the kitchen table, or on a folding 6 foot table. 

I have a Subway set on order, but I also have an N gauge starter set on order. My hobby dollars may begin to be funneled into the latter, although, I am ALWAYS tempted by those Lionchief starter sets, which are just too much fun--when they work :-).

If there actually is a generation behind us modeling o gauge, stand by for a waterfall of opportunities to pick up trains at a bargain when the scenario I mentioned above transpires for thousands of us. Lately I've even been of the mind that I should just give them away to anyone younger who is interested.

Down the line, I don't think there will be much choice for us other than to just give them away.

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

So...Mr. Bolton....what are you doing to support the small businesses in the hobby....?  I just checked and I don't see you in our subscriber base.  With the doom and gloom in your post above, why don't we all just bite the bullet and give up? 

Guys...their are two ways to look at this announcement:  You can take the example of what do you think of when you look at a glass with the water at the mid point within the glass.  Is it half empty or half full?  This hobby is going to survive and so will certain aspects of MTH.  There have been relatively new players that have appeared over the years...most recently think:  MENARDS. 

What we are seeing and have been seeing for quite a few years is our hobby evolve and those that can't or don't evolve will not survive.  As I wrote several months ago, we at OGR are seeing the forum membership grow from about 100-150 applications per month to 500-750 on average over the last few years.  We have seen the average page views increase by almost 2 million per month over a few years ago.  Over the past couple of years, our subscription base has been fairly steady...not the growth that we would like...but for those of you that don't support the few publications in this hobby, you are also not supporting the small businesses that are trying to sell their product in order to stay in business....especially since our demographic seems to prefer holding a print magazine while they read about their favorite hobby.  So....some of this doom and gloom about our hobby may be self inflicted.  Regardless....we have seen companies come and go throughout the years in the model railroading hobby....in all scales....and the hobby is still here and will be here long after MOST of us have "retired" permanently.  I suggest that you support those businesses that are offering product...and....a shameless plug (again).... a one year subscription costs less than one boxcar no matter what publication. 

By the way....I am looking at that glass of water and it is still half full....

 

Here, Hear.  Could not have said it better.  This will be a “remember,when?” Moment 2 years from now.

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

So...Mr. Bolton....what are you doing to support the small businesses in the hobby....?  I just checked and I don't see you in our subscriber base.  With the doom and gloom in your post above, why don't we all just bite the bullet and give up? 

Guys...their are two ways to look at this announcement:  You can take the example of what do you think of when you look at a glass with the water at the mid point within the glass.  Is it half empty or half full?  This hobby is going to survive and so will certain aspects of MTH.  There have been relatively new players that have appeared over the years...most recently think:  MENARDS. 

What we are seeing and have been seeing for quite a few years is our hobby evolve and those that can't or don't evolve will not survive.  As I wrote several months ago, we at OGR are seeing the forum membership grow from about 100-150 applications per month to 500-750 on average over the last few years.  We have seen the average page views increase by almost 2 million per month over a few years ago.  Over the past couple of years, our subscription base has been fairly steady...not the growth that we would like...but for those of you that don't support the few publications in this hobby, you are also not supporting the small businesses that are trying to sell their product in order to stay in business....especially since our demographic seems to prefer holding a print magazine while they read about their favorite hobby.  So....some of this doom and gloom about our hobby may be self inflicted.  Regardless....we have seen companies come and go throughout the years in the model railroading hobby....in all scales....and the hobby is still here and will be here long after MOST of us have "retired" permanently.  I suggest that you support those businesses that are offering product...and....a shameless plug (again).... a one year subscription costs less than one boxcar no matter what publication. 

By the way....I am looking at that glass of water and it is still half full....

Well, I didn't know that me being an OGR subscriber was a requirement for saving the hobby but if that's all it takes than I'll sign up today!

But to your comments: I do support my local hobby shop(s), most notably Charles Ro as well as other hobby shops in New England, or at least what's left of them since they do seem to be closing up. I am also a very active buyer on ebay, mostly Lionel postwar at this point.  I have also bought trains over the years for my nephews and nieces. So yes, I do my part and so do a lot of other people. Unfortunately, that won't be enough in the long term.  I will also make it clear that I take no joy in my gloomy but realistic assessment of where the market is.  I do not take joy in the end of MTH either. 

I am happy that that OGR is doing well!  However, I noticed that in your reply while making it clear that OGR is doing well subscriber wise you really didn't dispute my points:

- All emotion aside, there is no business case for a group of investors to invest in keeping a company like MTH whole given current market realities.

- The loss of a major player will put pressure on O gauge Hobby Shops to continue to close. If you have the data, I would find it interesting to know how many active hobby shops do we have now versus lets' say five years ago or ten years ago?  What's the trend?

- I do know from looking on Lionel's website for hobby shops in the New England area that Lionel has several "zombie" Hobby Shops listed that have since closed up.  I'm sure others can make the same claim for their geographical areas.

- There is a glut of O gauge product on the secondary market and that is steadily driving prices down for operator quality stuff. Quality Postwar is crashing on ebay, except for the most rare and mint items. Do you dispute that? My evidence is anecdotal but I closely watch ebay daily and I know enough now that I can find just about anything I want for the price I want to pay for it if I just wait and watch.  The same applies to new MTH and Lionel trains too. 

- Menards: I'm glad they are here!  You mention Menards but I am sure you are not suggesting that they can pick up the slack for MTH in the market are you?

- I have a nice collection of O gauge trains, especially postwar.  When I die, no one in my family is going to want my collection intact. I expect that the vast majority of it will be quickly sold off for prices at a fraction of what I paid for it.  No one has room for it.  I am willing to bet many others have the same fear. 

Madockawando-

While I suspect most of us share a concern w the future if the hobby I would be careful about putting too much into any one thing w the hobby.Retail stores in general are in trouble and Covid 19 could push many of them over the edge, if people feel the threat of possibly getting sick and realizing they can do most of it online. Hobby shops are dying partially w a decline in hobbies,but most bc of online sales. You know how many of those who moan about the death of hobby shops never shopped at the LHS but bought online to get it as cheap as possible w no sales tax?

Is it troubling no one bought MTH? If Mike had been trying to sell it and no one wanted it,for several years, then yeah it raises questions, but we don't know if he even tried,only he knows that.

Hopefully like Weaver the MTH stuff gets picked up by someone else, rather than one firm doing it.

I also have been around long enough to make me think trains go through ebb and flow. You mentioned the 1970s,that is my era as well and by then it was long since Lionel was the toy of choice,that died by the early 60s or so. If kids were into trains it was HO or N, the baby boomers were busy with families or cars or dating, and it was a lean time, you basically had Lionel MPC and it was a pretty small market and hobby. Kids were off w slot cars, a little later first video games, all kind of things.

It really wasn't until the late 80s that it came back,bc the boomers rediscovered them, both for nostalgia and collecting (and sadly those who thought they would make a fortune),and then Kughn bought lionel, mth came in,etc.

I don't know if the hobby will reach the size it did over the last several decades,but when I go to train shows I see enough non boomers to make me think it will survive, if smaller. Demographically there is a generation larger than the boomers,who could come into play.I have concerns there,generally trains goes along with home ownership and that may be problematic , but numbers suggest even if less percent of the next generation gets into 3 rail there will be a number who do.

I have learned that trying to tie disparate parts into a cohesive story can be difficult,whether it is history or with trains, the death of hobby shops, the end of mth, could be related to the health of the industry,but also could be unrelated to it, or partially,we don't know.

The hobby will suffer a substantial loss if MTH or its successor does not continue to make their beautiful, durable and reasonably-priced O gauge trains. Nonetheless, even if all O gauge production were to cease today, there will remain a vast supply of modern and classic O gauge trains that will come to be appreciated by discerning people in future generations who will recognize their value as collectibles or for their personal model railroad. There will be people (or their children) fascinated by trains or working for railroads who will become interested in model railroading. And the same reasons that led most of the people on this Forum to prefer O gauge/scale trains will still be there to attract a following.

I'm surprised by some people's certainty in predicting exactly what the situation will be years from now, and I strongly agree with Alan Arnold that this Forum and OGR magazine deserve to be supported by every one of us who enjoys and benefits from them.

MELGAR

MELGAR

Amen!

Ed Boyle

OGR could very well require membership for forum access. However your forum activity would drop significantly. End result it becomes less lucrative for sponsors and sponsorship drops. 

I don't subscribe to any train magazines except running extra from MRH. O isn't my only scale and MRH is the most useful to me from that standpoint.  I do however use the forum sponsors here at OGR.

Another option is to have a premium membership for the forum between subscription price and nothing.  Not my company and certainly won't tell you how to run it.

https://ogrforum.ogaugerr.com/...3#146142158578315543

Thanks, Alan, for chiming in.  Cool heads are needed now especially from those in the know like you.  Love the magazine, the hobby, and we need need to keep supporting companies that make this hobby great. 

I spent several hours today cutting wood and painting as a base for my hinged lift bridges that are made out of MTH bridges (the Backshop has given great tips over the years).  My world hasn't changed because Mike Wolf is retiring.  In the end, MTH could go away, but I have a lot of their products in my basement and they are alive and well.  O Gauge will live on!

Here here as well. Mike really did something special to the hobby as I sort of stated before. Having read some other things that have come out that there will be something evolving from MTH into whatever it becomes is great to hear. I haven't really bought a lot of MTH as I have said before, but even though I can appreciate what they have produced. Heck, the Madison Passenger cars I bought at last October's York are great and I love them.

People have been predicting the end of model trains for a long time it would seem if you ask some members here on the forum. What do they know? As someone has stated a few times, and maybe a few years ago, Mike was going to retire, just a question of when. Many were hoping that MTH would still exist as such, but that is Mike's, so it has to evolve into something else. I think a few people jokingly said ATH, but said Andy is up in age as well.

While you can say that the world is falling apart, I say to you that this forum, those that support it, those that love the hobby have really shown through this wacky time that it is really not. We missed April York, we missed this train show, we missed that train show, etc., etc. We are still here, we still love this hobby, and by God(hope that doesn't get edited out) we still love our trains.

I myself would love to think that at some point in my life when things are not so stuffy here, that whatever the future holds I will finally get enough space to have a great layout(still working on mom's estate), and be able to have trains running that should be having their glory pulling whatever freight or passenger cars they want. Hopefully this will be in the cards and not take too much more time to get things done. It would be nice, thankfully I am patient.

We shall see what comes, keep your pants on, and hope for the best possible outcome. Mike will have more surprises I am sure, or whomever the successor to what comes after is.

I haven't followed this thread from reply to reply, after it became one theory & conjecture after another. To many pessimistic predictions with a few optimistic rays of hope thrown in here and there. Since I haven't read every reply, word for word, I'm don't qualify to say whether most members thoughts are not based on facts but mostly opinion. Whatever the case, I do have a few questions regarding the fate of our MTH investments, if all of the electronic portion of MTH disappears. If the answer is buried somewhere within the 646 replies please let me know.

Question 1: Hypothetically assuming, if my TIU and or remote died and no replacements were available what options are left for my MTH engines besides conventional operation? I like to run multiple engines on the same track & also double head.  WiFi (I do not own one)? RailKing IR remote control, which I own 2, (lets assume these don't fall into the no longer category)?  

Question 2: Also hypothetically assuming, since I run DCS & Legacy & both systems still work, if any of my MTH engines should fry it's electronics and no replacement parts were available, what options are left for that engine?

I do own approximately 40 MTH engines, and a dozen Legacy engines.

Thanks,

Joe

DCS is spinning off into a new company which will handle all of the hardware and software.  You can see this in the stickied thread specifically about it and on MTH announcement.

@ironman1 posted:

Question 2: Also hypothetically assuming, since I run DCS & Legacy & both systems still work, if any of my MTH engines should fry it's electronics and no replacement parts were available, what options are left for that engine?

I do own approximately 40 MTH engines, and a dozen Legacy engines.

Thanks,

Joe

 

Not to worry, I would refer you to this other thread addressing that issue as well;

https://ogrforum.ogaugerr.com/...proto-sound-lives-on

I say that as long as there are real railroads, there will be model railroads, and some of them will be running MTH O gauge trains. There is a significant group of people who are interested in the O gauge trains of 50, 60, 70, and more, years ago. Why won't that be true of people and model trains that have been produced in the past 20 or 30 years? Eventually, people will tire of doing everything "virtually" on their computer and they will decide to do something that is "hands-on."

MELGAR

Thanks for the replies!

@bigkid posted:

Madockawando-

While I suspect most of us share a concern w the future if the hobby I would be careful about putting too much into any one thing w the hobby.Retail stores in general are in trouble and Covid 19 could push many of them over the edge, if people feel the threat of possibly getting sick and realizing they can do most of it online. Hobby shops are dying partially w a decline in hobbies,but most bc of online sales. You know how many of those who moan about the death of hobby shops never shopped at the LHS but bought online to get it as cheap as possible w no sales tax?

Is it troubling no one bought MTH? If Mike had been trying to sell it and no one wanted it,for several years, then yeah it raises questions, but we don't know if he even tried,only he knows that.

Hopefully like Weaver the MTH stuff gets picked up by someone else, rather than one firm doing it.

I also have been around long enough to make me think trains go through ebb and flow. You mentioned the 1970s,that is my era as well and by then it was long since Lionel was the toy of choice,that died by the early 60s or so. If kids were into trains it was HO or N, the baby boomers were busy with families or cars or dating, and it was a lean time, you basically had Lionel MPC and it was a pretty small market and hobby. Kids were off w slot cars, a little later first video games, all kind of things.

It really wasn't until the late 80s that it came back,bc the boomers rediscovered them, both for nostalgia and collecting (and sadly those who thought they would make a fortune),and then Kughn bought lionel, mth came in,etc.

I don't know if the hobby will reach the size it did over the last several decades,but when I go to train shows I see enough non boomers to make me think it will survive, if smaller. Demographically there is a generation larger than the boomers,who could come into play.I have concerns there,generally trains goes along with home ownership and that may be problematic , but numbers suggest even if less percent of the next generation gets into 3 rail there will be a number who do.

I have learned that trying to tie disparate parts into a cohesive story can be difficult,whether it is history or with trains, the death of hobby shops, the end of mth, could be related to the health of the industry,but also could be unrelated to it, or partially,we don't know.

 

 

 

 

Perfect response! 

I wasn't loosing any sleep over this, but I may sleep better tonight. 

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

...With the doom and gloom in your post above, why don't we all just bite the bullet and give up? 

...This hobby is going to survive and so will certain aspects of MTH.  There have been relatively new players that have appeared over the years...most recently think:  MENARDS. 

What we are seeing and have been seeing for quite a few years is our hobby evolve and those that can't or don't evolve will not survive.  As I wrote several months ago, we at OGR are seeing the forum membership grow from about 100-150 applications per month to 500-750 on average over the last few years.  We have seen the average page views increase by almost 2 million per month over a few years ago.  Over the past couple of years, our subscription base has been fairly steady...not the growth that we would like...but for those of you that don't support the few publications in this hobby, you are also not supporting the small businesses that are trying to sell their product in order to stay in business....especially since our demographic seems to prefer holding a print magazine while they read about their favorite hobby.  So....some of this doom and gloom about our hobby may be self inflicted.  Regardless....we have seen companies come and go throughout the years in the model railroading hobby....in all scales....and the hobby is still here and will be here long after MOST of us have "retired" permanently.  I suggest that you support those businesses that are offering product...and....a shameless plug (again).... a one year subscription costs less than one boxcar no matter what publication. 

By the way....I am looking at that glass of water and it is still half full....

Alan,

Like you, I'm a glass is half full kind of guy, too. But unlike you, I'm from a different generation (Gen X/Y) who is watching O Scale slowly die as a hobby. Just look at how the train shows have evolved in the past 10 years. The demographic has skewed older, TCA and similar organizations struggle to attract new membership, and the attendance continues to wane. Online, we have a burgeoning YouTube community, but it's still infinitesimally small compared to competing hobbies' YouTube communities. 

At a time when someone my age wants to look toward retirement in 25 years with hopes and dreams, I have to swallow a bitter pill knowing that it will not likely involve O Scale railroading as we've known it for the past 30 years. Indeed, the hobby must evolve to stay relevant, and it will. O will survive, but we are at a crossroads for HOW it will evolve. 

If you were to ask a 40 year old how many of their friends grew up with O gauge trains--or any model train for that matter--not just under a Christmas tree, but on an actual table or semi-permanent floor layout, I'm here to tell you they'd say it's in the single digits. That wasn't the case with your generation, of course. Lionel was a household word. Now, it's a "Oh, wait... don't they make trains or something?" with our generation.

Now, ask the same question of a 20 year old. Most would say they don't know anyone. They don't really know the Lionel name, at least not in the household word sense. The future is not looking good.

Someone my age can't ignore this. We ARE this generation. We have "normal" friends who we try to get into the hobby. The struggle for us to preserve this hobby is real and it's scary. To say that O will survive is whistling in the dark, and I don't have the luxury of looking back on 50 years in the hobby to say, "it's been a good run--I've seen ups and downs, and it'll come back up." Instead, I have to look at where we are, and where we're headed, and it's very sobering.

But here's where my half-full glass personality takes over.

OGR and its reader demographics may present a prescient and important case study for the hobby and the direction in which it needs to evolve to stay relevant in a best-case scenario. I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers prefer print over digital. How does that compare with other magazines like Car & Driver, or ComputerWorld, or even Model Railroader? I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers are over age 50. What do projections look like 5 years from now?

If you were to conduct a survey, I'm willing to bet that this topic--the feared death of O scale as a hobby and its state in 20 years--is top of mind for your subscribers under the age of 40 or 45. I'm also willing to bet that as the subscriber gets older, the less concerned they are about that question. This could prove to be a really interesting story in a future issue, frankly--not just an editorial, but a multi-page feature. It would be informative to the hobbyist as to where we are right now, and where we seem to be headed, and it would (just as, if not more importantly) be informative to the manufacturers and TCA as they build their long-range business plans in the wake of MTH's departure. 

The hobby won't die because of MTH's departure, but its future will suffer if we don't take action. There are certain things that will go away no matter what, and we have to account for those: brick and mortar will become a very small niche of sales. TCA as we know it won't exist. Meets and shows will be a thing of the past. And none of this is thanks to COVID, to be clear.

But, if the hobby pivots, beautiful enhancements can take their place. Online marketplace can spread the hobby to segments and geographies even more than it does today. Fellowship through virtual hobbyist sessions with VR and AR integration will take over where TCA and shows left off.

And new facets of the hobby can emerge. Virtual layout modules can be nested into a physical layout with Augmented Reality. Trains can engage in LAN-party operating sessions where train orders can be used to deliver cargo between two different railroads on two different layouts in two different physical cities. HomeKit, Alexa, and Google Home integration can bring an entirely new voice-control and motion-detected aspect to an operation without the need of a remote, smartphone, or on-track operating sensors. Live runs can be interactive allowing viewers to team up to take control (to the limit that the owner is comfortable) of layout components and rolling stock.

This is exciting stuff to the younger generation, and I dare say to the boomers as well. But what track are we on right now? I don't think it's that one, at least in the next 2 years (which is when it needs to happen, and as an engineer for a certain fruit company, I can assure you it's quite do-able today).

If the hobby does nothing and we continue on the same trajectory in the near term, it doesn't take a crystal ball to see the likely future. I talked about that in a recent post. In a nutshell, in 20 years I think it's safe to say that today's 40 year olds aren't going to see the benefit of spending $1000+ on just an engine. That market will be gone except for a few offerings here and there. The bread and butter of O will be in O Gauge. Menards. LionChief. Licensed brands. Christmas and birthday sales. Seasonal circle layouts with snap-track. That's going to be the hobby.

Compare that with some of what I detailed above, and you can see why guys from my generation and younger are worried. We see what the future CAN be, but it's looking less and less likely, possibly hastened by the MTH departure, and it's painful for us to watch. 

Again, I think it would make a great article.

Just my 2 cents.

Rafi

@TexasSP posted:

OGR could very well require membership for forum access. However your forum activity would drop significantly. End result it becomes less lucrative for sponsors and sponsorship drops. 

I don't subscribe to any train magazines except running extra from MRH. O isn't my only scale and MRH is the most useful to me from that standpoint.  I do however use the forum sponsors here at OGR.

Another option is to have a premium membership for the forum between subscription price and nothing.  Not my company and certainly won't tell you how to run it.

We in fact had a premium membership at one time but it did not have a large enough following so it was phased out.  We have done some calculations about some sort of special membership which would include extras above and beyond the free forum....and according to the calculation/marketing specialists/consultants, even if we lost 60% of our current forum members, OGR would make a larger profit....based on a buck a month type of "club"/"membership".  The current group of sponsors would likely continue to participate on the forum since it would still be comprised of active hobbyists keeping in mind that most of the page views we get per month are coming from folks that are not members of the forum so would not be paying a "membership" fee but could still read and participate with the banner ads.  This has been discussed before and even a couple of poles were taken with the results that folks want us to continue to provide the forum for free and so we have honored their thoughts on doing this.  BUT....everyone in this hobby from the consumer side needs to realize that things which are free now, won't be without financial support.  The big social media companies that provide platforms so that you can discuss trains can afford to provide those platforms BECAUSE they charge for advertising and they also gain from sharing your web search history to target and make money off of you.  

@Rafi posted:

Alan,

Like you, I'm a glass is half full kind of guy, too. But unlike you, I'm from a different generation (Gen X/Y) who is watching O Scale slowly die as a hobby. Just look at how the train shows have evolved in the past 10 years. The demographic has skewed older, TCA and similar organizations struggle to attract new membership, and the attendance continues to wane. Online, we have a burgeoning YouTube community, but it's still infinitesimally small compared to competing hobbies' YouTube communities. 

At a time when someone my age wants to look toward retirement in 25 years with hopes and dreams, I have to swallow a bitter pill knowing that it will not likely involve O Scale railroading as we've known it for the past 30 years. Indeed, the hobby must evolve to stay relevant, and it will. O will survive, but we are at a crossroads for HOW it will evolve. 

If you were to ask a 40 year old how many of their friends grew up with O gauge trains--or any model train for that matter--not just under a Christmas tree, but on an actual table or semi-permanent floor layout, I'm here to tell you they'd say it's in the single digits. That wasn't the case with your generation, of course. Lionel was a household word. Now, it's a "Oh, wait... don't they make trains or something?" with our generation.

Now, as the same question of a 20 year old. Most would say they don't know anyone. They don't really know the Lionel name, at least not in the household word sense. The future is not looking good.

Someone my age can't ignore this. We ARE this generation. We have "normal" friends who we try to get into the hobby. The struggle for us to preserve this hobby is real and it's scary. To say that O will survive is whistling in the dark, and I don't have the luxury of looking back on 50 years in the hobby to say, "it's been a good run--I've seen ups and downs, and it'll come back up." Instead, I have to look at where we are, and where we're headed, and it's very sobering.

But here's where my half-full glass personality takes over.

OGR and its reader demographics may present a prescient and important case study for the hobby and the direction in which it needs to evolve to stay relevant in a best-case scenario. I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers prefer print over digital. How does that compare with other magazines like Car & Driver, or ComputerWorld, or even Model Railroader? I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers are over age 50. What do projections look like 5 years from now?

If you were to conduct a survey, I'm willing to bet that this topic--the feared death of O scale as a hobby and its state in 20 years--is top of mind for your subscribers under the age of 40 or 45. I'm also willing to bet that as the subscriber gets older, the less concerned they are about that question. This could prove to be a really interesting story in a future issue, frankly--not just an editorial, but a multi-page feature. It would be informative to the hobbyist as to where we are right now, and where we seem to be headed, and it would (just as, if not more importantly) be informative to the manufacturers and TCA as they build their long-range business plans in the wake of MTH's departure. 

The hobby won't die because of MTH's departure, but its future will suffer if we don't take action. There are certain things that will go away no matter what, and we have to account for those: brick and mortar will become a very small niche of sales. TCA as we know it won't exist. Meets and shows will be a thing of the past. And none of this is thanks to COVID, to be clear.

But, if the hobby pivots, beautiful enhancements can take their place. Online marketplace can spread the hobby to segments and geographies even more than it does today. Fellowship through virtual hobbyist sessions with VR and AR integration will take over where TCA and shows left off.

And new facets of the hobby can emerge. Virtual layout modules can be nested into a physical layout with Augmented Reality. Trains can engage in LAN-party operating sessions where train orders can be used to deliver cargo between two different railroads on two different layouts in two different physical cities. HomeKit, Alexa, and Google Home integration can bring an entirely new voice-control and motion-detected aspect to an operation without the need of a remote, smartphone, or on-track operating sensors. Live runs can be interactive allowing viewers to team up to take control (to the limit that the owner is comfortable) of layout components and rolling stock.

This is exciting stuff to the younger generation, and I dare say to the boomers as well. But what track are we on right now? I don't think it's that one, at least in the next 2 years (which is when it needs to happen, and as an engineer for a certain fruit company, I can assure you it's quite do-able today).

If the hobby does nothing and we continue on the same trajectory in the near term, it doesn't take a crystal ball to see the likely future. I talked about that in a recent post. In a nutshell, in 20 years I think it's safe to say that today's 40 year olds aren't going to see the benefit of spending $1000+ on just an engine. That market will be gone except for a few offerings here and there. The bread and butter of O will be in O Gauge. Menards. LionChief. Licensed brands. Christmas and birthday sales. Seasonal circle layouts with snap-track. That's going to be the hobby.

Compare that with some of what I detailed above, and you can see why guys from my generation and younger are worried. We see what the future CAN be, but it's looking less and less likely, possibly hastened by the MTH departure, and it's painful for us to watch. 

Again, I think it would make a great article.

Just my 2 cents.

Rafi

Rafi....contact Allan Miller about your post above....I think if you are willing to do the research and write the article, we are willing to publish it...and we pay upon publication!

Thanks...

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

Rafi....contact Allan Miller about your post above....I think if you are willing to do the research and write the article, we are willing to publish it...and we pay upon publication!

Thanks...

Me and my big mouth! ;-)

In all seriousness, though, thanks for the nod. I'll contact Allan at the start of the week.

Thanks again,

Rafi

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

We in fact had a premium membership at one time but it did not have a large enough following so it was phased out.  We have done some calculations about some sort of special membership which would include extras above and beyond the free forum....and according to the calculation/marketing specialists/consultants, even if we lost 60% of our current forum members, OGR would make a larger profit....based on a buck a month type of "club"/"membership".  The current group of sponsors would likely continue to participate on the forum since it would still be comprised of active hobbyists keeping in mind that most of the page views we get per month are coming from folks that are not members of the forum so would not be paying a "membership" fee but could still read and participate with the banner ads.  This has been discussed before and even a couple of poles were taken with the results that folks want us to continue to provide the forum for free and so we have honored their thoughts on doing this.  BUT....everyone in this hobby from the consumer side needs to realize that things which are free now, won't be without financial support.  The big social media companies that provide platforms so that you can discuss trains can afford to provide those platforms BECAUSE they charge for advertising and they also gain from sharing your web search history to target and make money off of you.  

Alan I'm sure that would ruffle feathers. However I'm the end you guys have a business to run. I don't begrudge anyone doing what's right for them in those terms.  Life's a series of compromises in the end. I count myself blessed regardless. 

@OGR CEO-PUBLISHER posted:

So...Mr. Bolton....what are you doing to support the small businesses in the hobby....?  I just checked and I don't see you in our subscriber base.  With the doom and gloom in your post above, why don't we all just bite the bullet and give up? 

Guys...their are two ways to look at this announcement:  You can take the example of what do you think of when you look at a glass with the water at the mid point within the glass.  Is it half empty or half full?  This hobby is going to survive and so will certain aspects of MTH.  There have been relatively new players that have appeared over the years...most recently think:  MENARDS. 

What we are seeing and have been seeing for quite a few years is our hobby evolve and those that can't or don't evolve will not survive.  As I wrote several months ago, we at OGR are seeing the forum membership grow from about 100-150 applications per month to 500-750 on average over the last few years.  We have seen the average page views increase by almost 2 million per month over a few years ago.  Over the past couple of years, our subscription base has been fairly steady...not the growth that we would like...but for those of you that don't support the few publications in this hobby, you are also not supporting the small businesses that are trying to sell their product in order to stay in business....especially since our demographic seems to prefer holding a print magazine while they read about their favorite hobby.  So....some of this doom and gloom about our hobby may be self inflicted.  Regardless....we have seen companies come and go throughout the years in the model railroading hobby....in all scales....and the hobby is still here and will be here long after MOST of us have "retired" permanently.  I suggest that you support those businesses that are offering product...and....a shameless plug (again).... a one year subscription costs less than one boxcar no matter what publication. 

By the way....I am looking at that glass of water and it is still half full....

Excellent commentary. When I first started out subscribing to OGR many moons ago now, it was actually out of a sense of gratitude for their sponsoring this forum which I had come to enjoy. I really wasn’t familiar with the magazine then but took a chance on it. 

I’m glad I did. I thoroughly enjoy every issue and continue to be active on the forum. I recommend that those of you who enjoy this forum but don’t subscribe to OGR consider doing so. The digital subscription is actually quite cheap for what you receive,  although I do prefer the print version in my hand. 

Keep up the good work, Alan.

“If you were to ask a 40 year old how many of their friends grew up with O gauge trains--or any model train for that matter--not just under a Christmas tree, but on an actual table or semi-permanent floor layout, I'm here to tell you they'd say it's in the single digits. That wasn't the case with your generation, of course. Lionel was a household word. Now, it's a "Oh, wait... don't they make trains or something?" with our generation.”

I am 54. I was young in the 70’s. I grew up with Lionel trains. Rafi, I agree with what you are saying here but will it still be true in 5 or 10 years when all the kids who grew up with Thomas the Tank engine either in HO or O reach an age where they might have a little extra spending money to buy some trains? Hopefully, some of them will pick up the hobby. 

https://ogrforum.ogaugerr.com/...1#146142158582490181

Interesting perspective, Rafi.  Good post.  We have Train Fest every year here in Wisconsin (except 2020 of course!)  and I'm always amazed by all the young people getting in my way as a crusty old dude when I want to talk trains with the vendors.  It's a huge turnout with a ton of young people and, as I've observed and mentioned, I also can't help but to marvel at the square footage Menards uses at their stores to promote both Lemax and O Gauge trains for the last quarter of every year.  John Menard is a business guy.  He's showing trains because he sells trains and sees it as a viable market.

What we need to remember about O gauge trains is the simple fact that an AC transformer powers these little toys to go around in a circle.  And when you insulate the outer rail, magical things happen like accessories and RR crossing signals.  It's like a bicycle:  a sprocket and chain propels it with simple human pedaling.  We will be riding bikes forever.   People have been trying to enhance the pencil and pen for centuries.  In the end, what pens/pencils can do in their most basic form for creativity is what endures and ensures their life forever.

To speculate that this simple toy, based on science 101, will disappear, seems absurd to me.  Yes, the $1,000 engine is speculative -- and the future can seem cloudy, err, smoky? (pun intended) -- and that $1,000 engine might die along with the overly ambitious aging train guys like me on this forum.   But all it takes to turn a young person on to trains is to introduce them to the simple mechanical toy train and the the artistry of the scenic O Gauge world comes calling to so many young, creative minds.  Throw in the magic of commercial influences like Thomas the Train or Polar Express and the creative calling is enhanced.

Looking at a box car with die cast sprung trucks and a high quality paint job mattered when I was growing up and still matters today.  The aesthetic is there versus a 100,000 pixel digital image of anything.  Young folks just need to turn off their devices and take a moment to experience it.    Maybe they should start by going to places like the Art Institute of Chicago and see real live paintings or drawings by real historic artists in person.  It can move you unlike anything you can create online. 

What I am about to say is mainly intended to interject some humor into the discussion, but there is also truth in it: "If you build it, they will come." Arnold

@Rafi posted:

Alan,

Like you, I'm a glass is half full kind of guy, too. But unlike you, I'm from a different generation (Gen X/Y) who is watching O Scale slowly die as a hobby. Just look at how the train shows have evolved in the past 10 years. The demographic has skewed older, TCA and similar organizations struggle to attract new membership, and the attendance continues to wane. Online, we have a burgeoning YouTube community, but it's still infinitesimally small compared to competing hobbies' YouTube communities. 

At a time when someone my age wants to look toward retirement in 25 years with hopes and dreams, I have to swallow a bitter pill knowing that it will not likely involve O Scale railroading as we've known it for the past 30 years. Indeed, the hobby must evolve to stay relevant, and it will. O will survive, but we are at a crossroads for HOW it will evolve. 

If you were to ask a 40 year old how many of their friends grew up with O gauge trains--or any model train for that matter--not just under a Christmas tree, but on an actual table or semi-permanent floor layout, I'm here to tell you they'd say it's in the single digits. That wasn't the case with your generation, of course. Lionel was a household word. Now, it's a "Oh, wait... don't they make trains or something?" with our generation.

Now, ask the same question of a 20 year old. Most would say they don't know anyone. They don't really know the Lionel name, at least not in the household word sense. The future is not looking good.

Someone my age can't ignore this. We ARE this generation. We have "normal" friends who we try to get into the hobby. The struggle for us to preserve this hobby is real and it's scary. To say that O will survive is whistling in the dark, and I don't have the luxury of looking back on 50 years in the hobby to say, "it's been a good run--I've seen ups and downs, and it'll come back up." Instead, I have to look at where we are, and where we're headed, and it's very sobering.

But here's where my half-full glass personality takes over.

OGR and its reader demographics may present a prescient and important case study for the hobby and the direction in which it needs to evolve to stay relevant in a best-case scenario. I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers prefer print over digital. How does that compare with other magazines like Car & Driver, or ComputerWorld, or even Model Railroader? I'm willing to guess that most of your subscribers are over age 50. What do projections look like 5 years from now?

If you were to conduct a survey, I'm willing to bet that this topic--the feared death of O scale as a hobby and its state in 20 years--is top of mind for your subscribers under the age of 40 or 45. I'm also willing to bet that as the subscriber gets older, the less concerned they are about that question. This could prove to be a really interesting story in a future issue, frankly--not just an editorial, but a multi-page feature. It would be informative to the hobbyist as to where we are right now, and where we seem to be headed, and it would (just as, if not more importantly) be informative to the manufacturers and TCA as they build their long-range business plans in the wake of MTH's departure. 

The hobby won't die because of MTH's departure, but its future will suffer if we don't take action. There are certain things that will go away no matter what, and we have to account for those: brick and mortar will become a very small niche of sales. TCA as we know it won't exist. Meets and shows will be a thing of the past. And none of this is thanks to COVID, to be clear.

But, if the hobby pivots, beautiful enhancements can take their place. Online marketplace can spread the hobby to segments and geographies even more than it does today. Fellowship through virtual hobbyist sessions with VR and AR integration will take over where TCA and shows left off.

And new facets of the hobby can emerge. Virtual layout modules can be nested into a physical layout with Augmented Reality. Trains can engage in LAN-party operating sessions where train orders can be used to deliver cargo between two different railroads on two different layouts in two different physical cities. HomeKit, Alexa, and Google Home integration can bring an entirely new voice-control and motion-detected aspect to an operation without the need of a remote, smartphone, or on-track operating sensors. Live runs can be interactive allowing viewers to team up to take control (to the limit that the owner is comfortable) of layout components and rolling stock.

This is exciting stuff to the younger generation, and I dare say to the boomers as well. But what track are we on right now? I don't think it's that one, at least in the next 2 years (which is when it needs to happen, and as an engineer for a certain fruit company, I can assure you it's quite do-able today).

If the hobby does nothing and we continue on the same trajectory in the near term, it doesn't take a crystal ball to see the likely future. I talked about that in a recent post. In a nutshell, in 20 years I think it's safe to say that today's 40 year olds aren't going to see the benefit of spending $1000+ on just an engine. That market will be gone except for a few offerings here and there. The bread and butter of O will be in O Gauge. Menards. LionChief. Licensed brands. Christmas and birthday sales. Seasonal circle layouts with snap-track. That's going to be the hobby.

Compare that with some of what I detailed above, and you can see why guys from my generation and younger are worried. We see what the future CAN be, but it's looking less and less likely, possibly hastened by the MTH departure, and it's painful for us to watch. 

Again, I think it would make a great article.

Just my 2 cents.

Rafi

Rafi, I did not understand all of what you said about "virtual layout modules can be nested in a physical layout with Augmented  Reality," VR and AR integration, and LAN-party operating sessions, but I think you are on to something, you are clearly tech savvy (I'm not), and like Mr. Spock would say in Star Trek: "Fascinating." Arnold

Hey Arnold,

My apologies--in the interest of brevity I didn't go into too much detail on those ideas. In a nutshell:

Virtual Modules in a Physical Layout:
Imagine a 4x8 mid-way through scenery construction. Track is laid, perhaps ballasted, and maybe a few buildings and landscaping. Now, imagine holding up your phone or tablet as if you were going to take a picture, but instead of seeing just the layout on your device screen, you see photorealistic buildings nested into your physical scenery, completing your cityscape or Main Street diorama, and you can move and swap different buildings out, changing features, walking around your layout in the real world out to see what works best before you make your purchase. Or, you can test drive the latest Vision Line steamer on your actual track, complete with on-screen Legacy Controls on your layout, completely virtually, standing in front of your 4x8. Or, you're setting up a special occasion temporary layout for the kids or grandkids and you want to take them out of this world. Set up a circle of track and use your phone to transport the train and the track onto an alien planet. You're running the train in the real world, but if you look on the device, the train appears to be running on Mars, or in a jungle, you name it. Imagine kids competing to design the craziest, awesomest landscapes for their train to run through virtually, and then when they're older, they can try making them for real as they get into the hobby.

In short, AR gives someone the opportunity to take objects from the real world and place them in a virtual world. Or, vice versa: take the real world and insert virtual objects into it. If you'd like to see what I'm talking about in action, click here. AR is going to become more and more part of everyday life over the next decade, and it's in our hobby's best interest to get on the bandwagon early and to capitalize.

WAN party operating sessions:
After posting, I realized I made a typo--I should have said WAN party. LAN stands for Local Area Network (ie the Wi-Fi in your home). WAN stands for Wide Area Network (ie connectivity to other devices on the internet).

There are a ton of ways to spin this for model railroads. Here are three off the top of my head.

1). The idea here is pretty simple; it's like a game of Correspondence Chess, except it's not turn-based, and it all happens real-time. Imagine that you're interested in having an operating session, but rather than have your friend over to share your layout, you want to mix it up and combine your layout and his layout. Now, in a utopia, you'd pack up one of the layouts, bring it over to the other house, and bolt it onto the other layout. Short of a modular club, that's not realistic for semi-permanent in-home layouts, obviously. That's where a WAN party comes in. WAN parties and LAN parties are a popular way for video and computer gamers to compete against each other, or to work cooperatively against a common enemy. Imagine you and a friend both fire up your favorite game at each of your homes, connect to each other over the internet, and begin playing as if you were both sitting in front of the TV or computer in the same room. You can talk, you can interact through the game, and you can team up completely virtually. This is the same idea, but for train layouts.

Imagine if your TIU or Legacy system was able to talk to other systems over the internet. And imagine if you could designate parts of your layout to act as "portals" to the other layout. Now, imagine you wanted to have a train order operating session where goods and passengers have to be delivered across railroads. And imagine that all of this could be controlled through your tablet or smartphone.

Let's say you need to get a unit train of grain from your layout's farm over to the flour mill on your friend's layout. You put your consist together on your layout. Both you and your friend's phones and tablets are aware of the consist. You begin moving the train. Your friend can see it virtually on his device. The train gets to the portal track on your layout and ideally heads into a tunnel where, in the real world, it stops. But on your friend's layout it emerges from the tunnel virtually, completely life-like and realistic. and using Augmented Reality, you and he can control it as the virtual train moves through the real layout, until gets to the flour mill to deliver the load. The virtual train is controlled using the same Legacy/DCS/whatever the future brings system controls as a real train. 

2). Virtual control. I'm sure a lot of us have watched live broadcasts of model railroads. Eric Siegel's running one today on YouTube, in fact. Now, if the layout owner so desires, imagine being able to act as a remote dispatcher using your own Legacy remote or TIU Remote, or just by using your phone or tablet. Imagine being able to be one of 5 engineers operating one of 5 trains on that remote layout. Imagine participating in an operating session virtually alongside guys who are there physically. And imagine being able to do it using the same controls you use to operate your own layout. 

3). Fantasy Trains. Let's say Lionel's never going to put out that fallen flag in the unit that you want. Or, you never got that MTH model pre-ordered and so sad, so sorry. What if you could download, or better yet, build your own virtual engine, entire train? I'm sure a lot of us have seen the popular ultra-realistic and detailed train simulators on the market . What if Lionel (or anyone, really) licensed that modeling technology and released a version of Legacy or DCS that could run those trains virtually, using AR, on your layout? You could build your trains from the ground up using the same tools as in the simulator software, and then virtually run them on your actual track using AR.

The concern here is that with MTH gone, one may very reasonably argue that ideas like what I've outlined above are less likely to happen because the element of competition has significantly diminished. At the same time, one would hope that a company like Lionel sees this as a time to double down for a long term future.

All of this is do-able using technology from 2017 (much earlier if you forego AR technology and just use on-screen visuals), and here we are in 2020. These are the sorts of things that would attract the younger crowd, and I suspect seasoned hobbyists would go nuts for it, too. If designed well, it would be turnkey to get going on a home layout. You are spot on when you say, If You Build it, They Will Come. Someone just needs to build it and take the financial risk. The payoff is a whole new generation or two of hobbyists that would otherwise go to another hobby.

Rafi

I have heard concerns about the toy train hobby, particularly O gauge, dying for many years, and the fact is, it has not happened. Whether it does or does not in the future is pure speculation. With the recent decision by MTH, it was predictable that there would be a number of gloom and doom posts, so no surprise there.

I have two points to make this morning. First, our hobby is an expensive one and the reality is that those who have the interest are typically not in a position to make significant investments in it until they reach their 40s or 50s. Many younger adults also do not have the time or the dollars to attend train shows. Their priorities are different. They are getting married, buying a home, raising a family, working long hours in their jobs, making mortgage payments, making tuition payments, etc. For most, it is only when the kids get older, finish their education and move out that they have the time, space and discretionary funds available to build a layout and/or buy trains. That was exactly my case and that of virtually every one of my good friends in the hobby. So the fact that we do not see younger adults prominently supporting the hobby is hardly surprising. It has always been that way.

My second point is that we all have a role in shaping the future of our hobby. We need to do our part to build the base so that new members will continue the hobby when they are in a position financially to do so. It's a kind of succession planning. The more family members and friends we can interest in our hobby, the better the chances are for its survival. Here is my story. I have been interested in trains my entire life and became hooked on O gauge trains when I received my first Lionel train set when I was a small child. That never changed. My wife and I purchased Lionel trains for our three girls and ran them under the Christmas tree each year, and they all loved their trains. Now, our girls are adults who continue to very interested in trains. They are fascinated by my layout, which was built after they were grown up. One of our daughters is married, and has two boys, one of whom is 3 and the other is an infant. We have already purchased a Thomas the Tank train set for the older boy and you can bet his brother will get his own train set in the next year or two. The older boy loves his train set and is completely blown away with my layout. In fact, it is almost impossible to pull him away from it. When they are a little older, they will be able to run my layout and commence to attend train shows. Hopefully, both will be hooked for life. Our plan is similar for our other two daughters, both of whom are engaged, when they are married and have their own children.

Pat

Re Rafi's post above (for sake of space, won't paste it)...

Really appreciate the amount of thought that was put into it.  An article should be written - lots of folks prefer print and it's a way to move the discussion forward.  IMO, too many people and organizations are trying to milk the existing market rather than being open to outside-the-box thinking - NMRA is a prime example - they settled on a strategy of trying to attract newly-retired folks to the train hobby rather than appealing to younger people.  Big mistake, IMO.

Was not very familiar with AR beyond what I've seen on some TV shows, so I clicked on the link (thanks for providing it).  Here are my thoughts as someone who is close to retirement age (which means I'm relatively young in the train world).

While I find AR interesting, and can see a lot of uses for it, it's not how I want to engage in this hobby.  In fact, I can't think of any hobby in which I would want to engage in that manner.  Two critical things are missing in my viewpoint:  1) a physical manifestation of the hobby - I want to pick something up, work on it with my hands, and smell it while it's running, and 2) no in-person interaction - while I like being able to communicate with people all over the planet and see what they're doing, I take a great of pleasure in meeting others and being with them. 

I understand that I may be a dinosaur with some of these viewpoints, but I think that we lose a lot as human beings when everything  becomes virtual. 

Truthfully, much of my pleasure from the model train hobby is the people I meet that are involved in it.  If it were all virtual, it would lose a lot of allure, at least for me.  I love doing the modular shows and seeing the kids, young and old, enjoying the trains, it's a major reason why I will go to all the work of doing modular shows.

@irish rifle posted:

...our hobby is an expensive one and the reality is that those who have the interest are typically not in a position to make significant investments in it until they reach their 40s or 50s. Many younger adults also do not have the time or the dollars to attend train shows. Their priorities are different. They are getting married, buying a home, raising a family, working long hours in their jobs, making mortgage payments, making tuition payments, etc. For most, it is only when the kids get older, finish their education and move out that they have the time, space and discretionary funds available to build a layout and/or buy trains. That was exactly my case and that of virtually every one of my good friends in the hobby. So the fact that we do not see younger adults prominently supporting the hobby is hardly surprising. It has always been that way... 

 

While I agree with much of what is in that post, I think it's important to remember that model trains have not always been a hobby only for wealthier and older folks.  If one goes back to look at train magazines from the 1970s and earlier, the hobby was dominated by (mostly) men in their 20s to 40s - they adopted new technologies and applied them to creating model railroads.  Although one could spend a lot of money, the magazines are full of articles about scratchbuilding and making use of inexpensive and/or scrounged materials - many people of modest means had model railroads.  This seemed to flip sometime in the mid to late 1980s as boomers got wealthier and were able to buy their dreams.  At the same time, younger people weren't exposed to trains on a daily basis, so there were few younger folks to backfill as the core of the hobby aged.  My point is that we shouldn't just accept the idea that the hobby will only appeal to older folks - we need to find ways to engage younger people.

Hey guys, I should have clarified that features like augmented reality (which combines the physical and virtual) are just one of many things that would need to happen in order to attract a younger demographic in the coming years. They are not mutually exclusive to the hobby as we now know it – to the contrary, our hobby is one of the rare hobbies where you can combine facets from modern technology and old-school technology as much or as little as a hobbyist would want.

So while folks from previous generations probably would not care too much about the features that the younger generations would, that’s one of the great things about the flexibility that our hobby offers.

The key here is to figure out a good path forward and our hobby simply has to evolve with new technology to surface as relevant and present decades from now. 

Rafi, I really appreciate forward looking tech savvy individuals such as yourself in the hobby.  I believe people like you will help draw new people into the hobby using tech some of us only dream of.  I for one am looking forward to the day I can buy a program from a company who will sell digital designs of some of the more obscure railroad engines/cars and print them out on a 3d printer at home in any scale and place on a purchased complete or kit chassis or even homebuilt.  I know Shapeways does this, but supplies the printed parts.  I do not know of a central source for designs for a large variety of trains.  Could be a whole new business, download the design, print at home, cleanup, decorate, buy or build chassis and run.

Chris S. 

@Mallard4468 posted:

Re Rafi's post above (for sake of space, won't paste it)...

Really appreciate the amount of thought that was put into it.  An article should be written - lots of folks prefer print and it's a way to move the discussion forward.  IMO, too many people and organizations are trying to milk the existing market rather than being open to outside-the-box thinking - NMRA is a prime example - they settled on a strategy of trying to attract newly-retired folks to the train hobby rather than appealing to younger people.  Big mistake, IMO.

Was not very familiar with AR beyond what I've seen on some TV shows, so I clicked on the link (thanks for providing it).  Here are my thoughts as someone who is close to retirement age (which means I'm relatively young in the train world).

While I find AR interesting, and can see a lot of uses for it, it's not how I want to engage in this hobby.  In fact, I can't think of any hobby in which I would want to engage in that manner.  Two critical things are missing in my viewpoint:  1) a physical manifestation of the hobby - I want to pick something up, work on it with my hands, and smell it while it's running, and 2) no in-person interaction - while I like being able to communicate with people all over the planet and see what they're doing, I take a great of pleasure in meeting others and being with them. 

I understand that I may be a dinosaur with some of these viewpoints, but I think that we lose a lot as human beings when everything  becomes virtual. 

I agree. I am an old timer now, I admit, but the physical part of the hobby is what is attracts me. If you are going to go to AR, why not go the entire way to a completely virtual and CGI world?  

My son is 40 and has been a video gamer his entire life. His generation collects and plays with video games as a marker of their childhood, the way we did with toy trains. What it will be for the next generation after them, I have no idea.

Of all the possible manifestations of virtual reality, sci fi, avatars, war games, interplanetary travel, not to mention historical recreations of every type, the niche for virtual trains seems quite small.

I could definitely see holographic augmented reality in the future. The Houston Museum of Natural Science actually has a very cool system that plays off this. Not quite the same but in the same category. It's a 3D white model where the projections bring it to life.

https://youtu.be/aygpMi1Wk8g

If I wanted to play video games I would. I just don’t see it here with O Gauge trains.  What’s the point?  You either want to physically get involved or you don’t. At what point to we just sit in our easy chair and do everything with glasses on. Seems to defeat the purpose. I guess the older guy in me just would rather use this thing called “imagination “ than to have to augment my train layout. 

Don’t get me wrong I enjoy the video games and the virtual tech but I just don’t see the 2 worlds Of physical trains and VR combined. 

Guys...all of this recent discussion is very interesting....but....the posts are WAY off the topic and purpose of this thread.  How about one of you starting a new thread in the traditional category/forum and talk about the virtual layouts, etc.....  Lets try to keep the focus on the original purpose of this thread.

Thanks...

Thank you Mike for all the great offerings since the inception of MTH.  Seeing the sheer variety of what has become available to us over the years has been tremendous fun.  

Guess M.T.H. now stands for Movin' To Hialeah.  

To me there are two big moving parts about the possible/probable demise of MTH.

1 Maintenance - People are concerned about getting their existing locomotives fixed, upgraded, and generally keeping up with new technology and control/power sources.

2 New Products- New locomotives, various rolling stock, and possible accessories.

Since I have no MTH locomotives or MTH control systems; I don't care about the Maintenance issue.

I would like to see someone continue to produce New Products ( MTH) no matter who it is. So far from my understanding Mike has not been able to find a buyer.  I'm not sure who owns the equipment in China anyway?? But here is an idea.  If worst comes to worst, give Lionel the existing equipment in China.  Lionel will pick up the equipment and ship it the their manufacturing division also in China.  Lionel and Mike sign a 10 year operating agreement giving Mike a royalty of each MTH product produced by Lionel over the next 10 years.  After the 10 years all equipment is the property of Lionel and all royalties stop.  I would rather a new company  compete against Lionel, competition is best.  This is a worst case scenario I proposed.  I know the devil is in the details - this is just a broad stroke the the brush a starting point for negotiation.  Bottom line is ........I don't want to see the MTH production equipment sent to the scrap yard and melted down. Hopefully a new independent company will emerge.   

How much more speculation do we need. For the customers and dealers that were exclusively MTH they will simply have to readjust if they want to stay with Ogauge. I feel bad but it is what it is. Mike wants to retire and could not find a buyer so it’s his decision to close up shop. We survived after Kline and Weaver. We will survive after this. 

Note....in order to keep on topic, we are now going to delete comments that are off topic of the original purpose of this thread.  This topic should be about MTH in particular and any comments you want to convey concerning them specifically and Mike Wolf in particular.

@Greg - Mi posted:

To me there are two big moving parts about the possible/probable demise of MTH.

1 Maintenance - People are concerned about getting their existing locomotives fixed, upgraded, and generally keeping up with new technology and control/power sources.

2 New Products- New locomotives, various rolling stock, and possible accessories.

Since I have no MTH locomotives or MTH control systems; I don't care about the Maintenance issue.

I would like to see someone continue to produce New Products ( MTH) no matter who it is. So far from my understanding Mike has not been able to find a buyer.  I'm not sure who owns the equipment in China anyway?? But here is an idea.  If worst comes to worst, give Lionel the existing equipment in China.  Lionel will pick up the equipment and ship it the their manufacturing division also in China.  Lionel and Mike sign a 10 year operating agreement giving Mike a royalty of each MTH product produced by Lionel over the next 10 years.  After the 10 years all equipment is the property of Lionel and all royalties stop.  I would rather a new company  compete against Lionel, competition is best.  This is a worst case scenario I proposed.  I know the devil is in the details - this is just a broad stroke the the brush a starting point for negotiation.  Bottom line is ........I don't want to see the MTH production equipment sent to the scrap yard and melted down. Hopefully a new independent company will emerge.   

I doubt Lionel would want to do that. If they did you most likely would see a major price increase.

I stumbled onto this news early this morning while browsing YouTube.  Grandson was playing a video game and I got bored.

After he went home I decided to see if this news had hit the O gauge forum so I could read what people had to say.  17 pages.  Good to know.

I have read as many posts as I could to get a feel for what the main concern happened to be, and since most were wishing Mike a healthy and happy retirement, and I too wish that for him, let me first start by adding my best wishes to he and his family.  Next let me say that I too am disappointed to see MTH close.  Why?  No reason.  I bought two Lionel ES44's only to find out that Legacy wasn't able to run MTH engines when in between the two Lionel's I bought a BNSF ES44 from MTH.  Knowing this I decided to go with DCS because MTH programming, with assistance, was able to run Lionel Engines.  I had it all figured out.

I don't fault Mike in the least for his decision to retire.  I don't fault anyone else for not wanting to buy MTH.  As many of the posts have stated in one way or another, model trains aren't drones or video games or virtual reality face masks.  Today's generation wants a drone they can fly, or a video game they can power play with their friends over the net, like these zombie special ops ghost warrior games, or, it still isn't as popular but we can all hope, VR glasses that let them actually drive a VR train on a VR track running into all sorts of VR excitement.  As Ravi (sorry if I messed that up), mentioned in his post, Alexa type interaction with our smart devices is what drives the industry today.  WIFI DCS is great, racked with nit picky issues, but great to use.  I love running my trains with it.  But if MTH is closing, let's face the facts, upgrades go away, support goes away, and chances are, usually happens, unless MTH bands together to save their jobs and gets Mike to sell all of them the company, whoever does buy it will only buy bits and pieces and CHANGES abound.

I'm with all of the posts that followed this line of thought.  Come June 1 2021 we will be fully educated as to what lies ahead for MTH, its employees, its products, and its future err it have one.  We may see no changes, other than the Mike portion of the name either being left there in spirit only, or gone and changed to one of the other 25 letters in the alphabet.  Then again we may see MTH become yet another historical figure in the model train industry that we speak of this way, "that's an old MTH product, they left the industry years ago."  But until June 1 2021 I will continue to enjoy my trains as I do now, no changes, but I will try to be even more particular about them since I may not have any place go to get them repaired.  Maybe a version of Rock Auto.com will appear in our midst selling hard to find parts for model trains.  But for now, my DCS works, my WIFI app works.  My trains belong to me and if my train room becomes inoperable museum piece in the future, then I'll deal with it then.  With that I will say Mike, best wishes, happy retirement, thanks for the opportunity, and I'm hungry.

John

Here's another thought. I discovered S scale and was adding a loop to my layout. I started with SHS track and then moved to MTH STrax. Around Christmas, 2019, it seemed there was enough product. However, now six months later,  I cannot find any 35-1001 15 inch straight track. Track is basic, because more track invites more trains. One may conclude Mike exhausted track inventory in late 2019 and then stopped, in anticipation of closing. I can work around depleted inventory, if needed, but I feel abandoned.

Mark

Now that the responses are slowing down a little I thought I'd chime in. 

This announcement saddens me, the same way I felt when the Beatles broke up, but life went on as will this hobby.

Thanks Mike Wolf for your contri utions to this hobby, you have left a great legacy that all of us can appreciate. Every  piece of MTH that I have owned has brought hours of enjoyment for myself and others and you can't put a price on that. 

I will continue to support MTH for years to come since I find them so reliable and entertaining.  I still play with my NKP Berk that I bought 25 years ago its bullet proof as are all of my MTH products.

Again Mike thanks for the memories and enjoy your retirement from the toy train business.

@barrister.2u posted:

Here's another thought. I discovered S scale and was adding a loop to my layout. I started with SHS track and then moved to MTH STrax. Around Christmas, 2019, it seemed there was enough product. However, now six months later,  I cannot find any 35-1001 15 inch straight track. Track is basic, because more track invites more trains. One may conclude Mike exhausted track inventory in late 2019 and then stopped, in anticipation of closing. I can work around depleted inventory, if needed, but I feel abandoned.

Mark

I know the feeling.  MTH closing down is a much bigger gut punch to the S market than it is to the O market.  And given the difficulty S-Helper Service had in selling the line to MTH, I suspect it will be no more.

You can use Lionel's S FasTrack with MTH/SHS S-Trax.  FasTrack may not be quite as "pretty" as S-Trax and takes a little modification to join to S-Trax, but it will work.  Rail height and roadbed profile is exactly the same.

https://ogrforum.ogaugerr.com/...g-fastrack-to-s-trax

Lionel may not have a 15" section, but they do have a 30" length.

Rusty

@Rusty Traque posted:

I know the feeling.  MTH closing down is a much bigger gut punch to the S market than it is to the O market.  And given the difficulty S-Helper Service had in selling the line to MTH, I suspect it will be no more.

<snip>

Rusty

There is a possibility that Lionel could pick up the SHS tooling. There were some discussions between Lionel and Don Thompson before the sale of SHS, but in the end it went to MTH for a reason that can be readily fathomed. Given that Lionel has American Flyer and has been offering S gauge trains since 1979, Lionel was always the more 'logical' place for the SHS line to reside under the AF banner.

No promises. Just sayin'.

Bob

@Bob Bubeck posted:

There is a possibility that Lionel could pick up the SHS tooling. There were some discussions between Lionel and Don Thompson before the sale of SHS, but in the end it went to MTH for a reason that can be readily fathomed. Given that Lionel has American Flyer and has been offering S gauge trains since 1979, Lionel was always the more 'logical' place for the SHS line to reside under the AF banner.

No promises. Just sayin'.

Bob

According to Don, Lionel was never really in the running. 

Rusty is correct, this is a gut punch to S. Add to the fact that we lost the owner of Des Plaines hobbies recently, the owners of American Models, and Port Lines Hobbies are both in their 70s with no succession plans that I’m aware of and the future for S gets really grim with MTHs departure. 

Ive been trying to make S work personally for about 9 years and it is time to face reality. It’s not about being optimistic or pessimistic, it’s about being realistic. As much as I love S, I’m going back to 2R O and I’m supporting Scott Mann to get as much built as I can over the next 10 years. After that I question if there will be enough interest to continue. We shall see.

Well fellow S-guage fans, I must regard this announcement as a slap in the face!! When SHS was purchased by MTH, I was cautiously optimistic that good things were about to happen for the S-guage community! Sadly, that has Not been the case. We were promised a new set of Diesel engines and possibly some new steamers.. What came of it was more and more promising! Deadlines came and went finally a series  of reworked(?) F3s with 3 modes of operation on board including the MTH flagship DCS! No complaints there except the cost of an ABA set of F3s together with all the DCS options was cost prohibitive for most of us Old AF and SHS fans who already had the F7s!! And rumors abounded, even more promising of a Steam Engine, most likely the 0-8-0! We all know that won't happen now! ...Has any one tried to find new S-trax switches lately?? I read an earlier post of someone looking for track...  As for Lionel picking up the slack, have you looked at their "Catalogue" lately!! Mostly, near entry level toys since the releases of the Challenger, Mallet, SDs and U33s!! Yes, a new detailed      2-8-4 possibility coming out soon, then what?     Yes, they are producing S-guage track and switches, which without modification will not integrate with SHS/MTH, and $$$.... So now we are solely dependent on Lionel, and American Models for new equipment. No disrespect to AM, their line of engines and rolling stock is for far superior in quality to any of Lionel's latest issues in my opinion!! But, no operating system other then  Conventional Control...  So, I wish Mike all the luck in the world for a Happy and Long retirement, but I do wish he had fulfilled more of his promises and his commitment to, and not left the S-guage community out in the cold!!! A Very Sad Way for SHS to come to an End!!!!  😢

Ps - this is my opinion, I sincerely apologize to anyone who disagrees or feels insulted!!

FWIW, I kept my pre-order for the MTH S Burlington F7's and N&W fishbelly hoppers, (paid for with the disposition of the remainder of my MTH O with change leftover) even though I'm not sure exactly what I'm going to do when I get around to building a new layout.  Probably at least a year away.

I may switch scales, I may not.  It's all mind games right now until after I relocate.  At least these thoughts are cheap!

Rusty

Just wondering why, over the years, when MTH was at the top of its game, that Mike didn't take the company public. I would have bought a block of shares, as I suspect many thousands of us enthusiasts would have.  In that event, Mike would have been appointed CEO or President of the BOD, and the company would still be rolling along, after he steps down. He gets to sell off his shares (if he would so desire) live off a pension, (richly deserved) and a new guy would take over a viable company. That company would continue making products as long as there is a market.

@Arthur P. Bloom posted:

Just wondering why, over the years, when MTH was at the top of its game, that Mike didn't take the company public. ......

Maybe he liked to be able to pursue what he wanted and to have the final say?  Some of that disappears when you go public and have to answer to others (stockholders, board of directors, etc). 

Who knows what product may have been made because he had the passion to do it and maybe didn't always have a huge bottom line profit?  I'm not suggesting he did lots of things to lose money on, but he could do as he pleased.  There is a chance that may have been worth a lot to him.

-Dave

@Arthur P. Bloom posted:

Just wondering why, over the years, when MTH was at the top of its game, that Mike didn't take the company public. I would have bought a block of shares, as I suspect many thousands of us enthusiasts would have.  In that event, Mike would have been appointed CEO or President of the BOD, and the company would still be rolling along, after he steps down. He gets to sell off his shares (if he would so desire) live off a pension, (richly deserved) and a new guy would take over a viable company. That company would continue making products as long as there is a market.

Sure, there are advantages for going public, but there are disadvantages, too.

When you go public, you surrender control.  There's financial disclosures to the investors, being regulated by the SEC and the high costs of complying with SEC regulations for a small company, other costs involved for an IPO and the pressure for quick profits.

I know I wouldn't buy stock in a model railroad company, no matter who it is.

Rusty

@jonnyspeed posted:

According to Don, Lionel was never really in the running. 

Rusty is correct, this is a gut punch to S. Add to the fact that we lost the owner of Des Plaines hobbies recently, the owners of American Models, and Port Lines Hobbies are both in their 70s with no succession plans that I’m aware of and the future for S gets really grim with MTHs departure. 

<snip>

Well, because in the end Mike offered more money. There were discussions.

Given how the acquisition and the fruits of it played out, Lionel's management's judgement of the commercial value of the line, given the current market, was arguably closer the truth of the matter. Agreed that the demise of M.T.H. is a loss for S. Not denying that, but because M.T.H.'s tardy and incomplete roll out of product was so painfully slow, one can honestly debate just how big a loss it is. I do not know if Lionel would be interested in acquiring the line, but then and now, it has been a ('the' IMHO) logical place for the old SHS tooling to reside as part of the American Flyer brand with its name recognition if one wishes to see any of those pieces manufactured in some form again.

Again, no promises. Just sayin'.

Bob

>> Love those old AF Trains...  <<

Me, too! 

Bob

@Bob Bubeck posted:

Well, because in the end Mike offered more money. There were discussions.

Given how the acquisition and the fruits of it played out, Lionel's management's judgement of the commercial value of the line, given the current market, was arguably closer the truth of the matter. Agreed that the demise of M.T.H. is a loss for S. Not denying that, but because M.T.H.'s tardy and incomplete roll out of product was so painfully slow, one can honestly debate just how big a loss it is. I do not know if Lionel would be interested in acquiring the line, but then and now, it has been a ('the' IMHO) logical place for the old SHS tooling to reside as part of the American Flyer brand with its name recognition if one wishes to see any of those pieces manufactured in some form again.

Again, no promises. Just sayin'.

Bob

I've been peeking into a couple of the Flyer discussion groups.  Crickets about MTH closing down.  I suppose your statement about how much of a big loss to S  is true. 

I agree that American Flyer carries the identity of S, (something certain factions on the scale side refuse to admit...) but can you imagine Showcase Line cars with those big, honkin' Flyer trucks?  Yikes!!!   Besides, the boys over at Circle L just went through a lot of trouble designing a "traditional" copy of the MTH/SHS wood reefer.

And without some serious redesign work, I doubt Lionel's current electronics would even fit in the ex-MTH/SHS F-units and forget about the switchers.

Rusty

@Rusty Traque posted:

I've been peeking into a couple of the Flyer discussion groups.  Crickets about MTH closing down.  I suppose your statement about how much of a big loss to S  is true. 

I agree that American Flyer carries the identity of S, (something certain factions on the scale side refuse to admit...) but can you imagine Showcase Line cars with those big, honkin' Flyer trucks?  Yikes!!!   Besides, the boys over at Circle L just went through a lot of trouble designing a "traditional" copy of the MTH/SHS wood reefer.

And without some serious redesign work, I doubt Lionel's current electronics would even fit in the ex-MTH/SHS F-units and forget about the switchers.

Rusty

One can imagine (since we are wildly speculating) that the SHS rolling stock would ride on the SHS (or K-Line) trucks. Lionel could have a 'traditional Gilbert' and a 'contemporary' S gauge line coexisting under the name American Flyer. Lionel does this in 0; why not S? The modern Legacy diesels with high rail and scale wheel sets would be part of the 'new' contemporary line. The rolling stock, including those beautiful cabeese, could reappear pretty quickly. Agreed, the boards for the SHS diesels would be a challenge, but small TMCC boards already exist and (gulp!) the FlyerChief+ boards are relatively small.  The boards in the U-Boats might just fit with modification into the F-units. In my imaginings, the 2-8-0 would not be reintroduced. It is a great model, but an awful piece of industrial design ... speaking as one who has taken one apart and, then, put it back together. I always took the existence of the Lionel AF wood side reefer as proof that in an (my) ideal world, the SHS tooling should have gone to Lionel. 

Some of it would be pretty easy. Some not. It is a matter money and will. 

Again, no promises. Just sayin'.

Bob