Sounds of Silence

Tom,

I don't know if it can be saved.  People of our generation are leaving (dying) in droves and the gen X, mil and gen Y don't seem to give a crap about S.

I've heard alot of people say that they prefer S, however the selection of engines is too small and they can't get what they want.  The manufacturers want solid demand before they produce (logical) and so we get what comes first, the chicken or the egg?

Demand doesn't exist without product and product doesn't exist without demand.  I can't see this changing, especially in the current economy, unless a manufacturer boldly goes and produces something new. Lionel/Flyer won't, American Models probably won't, that leaves Scale Trains - who is new and using old S Helper molds.  Think about when Flyonel put out the Berkshires - there was a run on them.

All we can do is hold on and hope for the best.

Francine

True enough...plus, there's always lots of stuff available on the auction site(s), so I'm gonna hang in there!

Mark in (wet) Oregon

I don't know if it can be saved.  People of our generation are leaving (dying) in droves and the gen X, mil and gen Y don't seem to give a crap about S.

Or model railroading, or any other hobbies, period.

Rich

FWIW, I always liked the size of S-scale.  If I were starting over, (which ain't happening), I'd go with S-gauge.  However, since I'm totally vested in O-gauge, I'm stuck.

Leave Gen-X out of this conversation!    I have so many expensive hobbies in addition to trains it's not funny!  Many of my friends do as well and some of them are even model railroaders.  Interestingly enough I know more gen-x postwar collectors than anything else.  They inherited the interest from their dad in most cases.  Some of them are into American Flyer as well. 

S was never really an option for me as American Flyer never held a lot of appeal although it does more so than postwar Lionel, and scale S seems like it has always been a niche.  The 3/16 scale is a nice compromise no question between my interests in HO and O, but outside of the brass market the scale side of S never really seemed to catch on.  Either that or I just never paid attention, which is of course entirely possible too.  However, at this point, I am way over committed to scale O to change. 

However, to the point of hobbies in general, I have nearly as much invested in my music studio as I do in trains.  I got out of historic vehicles because I ran out of time, funds, and space.  However, I still have an interest in finding a 1936 Chevy pickup to redo one day when I perhaps am lucky enough to retire. 

@richabr posted:

I don't know if it can be saved.  People of our generation are leaving (dying) in droves and the gen X, mil and gen Y don't seem to give a crap about S.

Or model railroading, or any other hobbies, period.

Rich

There was an interesting article in our paper about sales trends over the last 25 years or so. In it was a graph showing the sales decline of toy and hobby stores.  The graph showed about a 60% decline from 1995 to around 2017 then a drop off the cliff to last year with a total of approximately 80-85% decline from 1995.  Obviously some of this has to do with internet sales, but I assume also electronic games and social media had an impact.

As far as model railroading, what I see with the young cadets I work with that can actually put down their phone, youth want more excitement and they are going to land and air drones.

@GG1 4877 posted:

Leave Gen-X out of this conversation!    I have so many expensive hobbies in addition to trains it's not funny!  Many of my friends do as well and some of them are even model railroaders.  Interestingly enough I know more gen-x postwar collectors than anything else.

I don't find the innumerable debates on this topic much fun to participate in, but I will jump in on the Gen X issue. A huge percentage of modelers that I know and of people I see at train shows are Gen X. The oldest X'ers are turning 59 this year. It is the right time of life for many of them to get into hobbies as the nest empties and their careers have brought them some discretionary funds.

I believe the turnouts under discussion are highrail. Take a look at sscaletrack.com. Tomalco Track is planning to build and sell numbered S gauge highrail turnouts on a BTO basis. Available with Code125, 138 and 148 rail.

Additionally, Scale Trains has now delivered the steel rebuilt boxcars, I have the three I preordered. They are on a roll, next up is the EV Caboose.

@AmFlyer posted:

I believe the turnouts under discussion are highrail. Take a look at sscaletrack.com. Tomalco Track is planning to build and sell numbered S gauge highrail turnouts on a BTO basis. Available with Code125, 138 and 148 rail.

Additionally, Scale Trains has now delivered the steel rebuilt boxcars, I have the three I preordered. They are on a roll, next up is the EV Caboose.

Tom, FWIW, when I was in the turnout business, having developed an open frog turnout that would run Flyer, Hi-rail, and scale all at the same time, the NASG was looking to help an S business – like they are now.  I was told point blank, by NASG Biggy and a highly respected scale modeler, that because my turnouts were not strictly scale, the NASG would not be interested… don’t bother applying.

The search right now is for a scale turnout – not a universal turnout – to save the future of S.  Scale is the only type of turnout the powers that be will accept.  I still don’t understand because as you mentioned, Tomalco make scale turnouts.  I am unaware that Tomalco is offering Hi-rail turnouts, I sure hope they do.

I’ve stopped paying attention to what FV and Sscale Trains are planning for the future.  It is my understanding that Sscale Trains is not going to do any S this year.  So who knows?

Tom Stoltz

in Maine

Tom, here is a picture of two of your turnouts on a layout I visited in Pittsburgh. Below that picture are pictures of mine, the main difference is mine have hinged points. It was after watching your videos I decided to have numbered turnouts that will run both scale and highrail wheels.

@Tom Stoltz posted:

This group is really quiet for this time of year.  S gauge got you down?   What do you think will save S in general?   Tom Stoltz in Maine

Tom, I hate to make reference to them here, but there are at least two very active Flyer-related Facebook pages that get heavy traffic.  Perhaps many just don't know about this Forum and take the easiest route to finding something.

I'm not going to get into why people are in it or not.

But I have wondered why Lionel or other large producers haven't gone to a backer model. Hasbro has something called haslab or Hasbro pulse. Where they make high-end toys for collectors, they only produce things that hit a certain goal but the backers are public so you can track how close something is to being backed or not. They will also have bonus / reach goals.  Say something has a 10,000 backer production goal and it reaches it. They will also have stretch goals where say it hits 12,000 backers they add bonus features extra accessories or more detail. Once the time period for backing has ended they charge everyone's card right there and it goes into final modeling and production.

I always thought this would be interesting for the train hobby.

@RadioRon posted:

Tom, I hate to make reference to them here, but there are at least two very active Flyer-related Facebook pages that get heavy traffic.  Perhaps many just don't know about this Forum and take the easiest route to finding something.

Are there any S Hi-rail pages?  And you think that's is why people aren't posting too much here?

@Greekchief posted:

I'm not going to get into why people are in it or not.

But I have wondered why Lionel or other large producers haven't gone to a backer model. Hasbro has something called haslab or Hasbro pulse. Where they make high-end toys for collectors, they only produce things that hit a certain goal but the backers are public so you can track how close something is to being backed or not. They will also have bonus / reach goals.  Say something has a 10,000 backer production goal and it reaches it. They will also have stretch goals where say it hits 12,000 backers they add bonus features extra accessories or more detail. Once the time period for backing has ended they charge everyone's card right there and it goes into final modeling and production.

I always thought this would be interesting for the train hobby.

Isn't that pretty much what they do already with their with the pre-production ordering?  Seems that is what S scale Trains did.

Tom Stoltz

in Maine

Tom,  I don't know I haven't followed to much lately.  My kids are 6 & 3 so we're just getting the layout back in running shape.

Well, I've been down in my basement running and maintaining my Flyer (PW S, Lionel Flyer, and prewar Flyer).

I am blessed with lots of trains and do not worry much about Lionel, or the lesser manufacturers. There is a lot of Gilbert and older Lionel Flyer out there at historically low prices. There is a lot of AM out there at reasonable prices and numreous Lionel Legacy offerings if one is so inclined. Etc., etc., etc. As long as one is willing to accept hi-rail in some form there is plenty to work with in operating, collecting, maintaining, and layout building in S. Tom's work shows what one can do in a more serious vein. Doug Peck keeps telling me that he is busy packing and sending parts, so enthusiasts have to be fixing Flyer trains to run. The Flyer Facebook pages strongly indicate this. There are a lot of folks enjoying their trains who do not post here (or are not members of the NASG for that matter ).

And, the scale crowd going with a tin cup, dark glasses, monkey and hurdy gurdy to the NASG  for support for turnouts has little to do with "saving S" and everything to do with self interest. That's a minority in a minority. The vast majority of S is hi-rail in some form.

If you have 'em, run 'em.

Bob

You make some valid points, Bob...although I'm not too sure about the last paragraph regarding "a tin cup, etc..."

There is currently a (kinda) similar discussion going on over on one of the S scale sites. (I won't mention where, as I'm not sure that's allowed.) The thread I'm referring to is more about aging and the impact it has on model railroading in general and S scale in particular.

My thoughts are thus: one of the allures of the scale is that very lack of stuff; it's the "thrill of the hunt" that makes a long-awaited for score that much more satisfying. This same lack of stuff allows forces one to (perhaps) be a little more creative, which is always a good thing, yes?

As it stands now, I have way more stuff than I probably need ( I bet there's a lot of you that could say the same), so the act of acquisition is minimized, at least for me.

As for the future? When I'm gone, I don't think it's gonna matter, so I don't spend much time thinking about it.

Carry on, gents.

Mark in Oregon

@Bob Bubeck posted:

Well, I've been down in my basement running and maintaining my Flyer (PW S, Lionel Flyer, and prewar Flyer).

The Flyer Facebook pages strongly indicate this. There are a lot of folks enjoying their trains who do not post here (or are not members of the NASG for that matter ).

And, the scale crowd going with a tin cup, dark glasses, monkey and hurdy gurdy to the NASG  for support for turnouts has little to do with "saving S" and everything to do with self interest. That's a minority in a minority. The vast majority of S is hi-rail in some form.

If you have 'em, run 'em.

Bob

Bob, I have to agree there are numerous Flyer groups on FB.  I had to join one to find out it really isn’t for me, not being 100% Flyer.  I also found S Scale Model Railroading (on FB) which is a slightly better mix for me.  There are quite a few name from the S-Scale.io group there and a lot that I do not know.  The one thing that really struck me was the amount of misinformation, especially with regard to track, on the site.

The OGF S Scale Trains as a much wider knowledge base.  The other thing I noticed is no one seemed to be interested in correcting the misinformation.  Perhaps my view is colored by the fact that I don’t care that much for the format.  I’m in several other FB groups that work well, but the S Scale one don’t measure up.

@Strummer posted:

There is currently a (kinda) similar discussion going on over on one of the S scale sites. (I won't mention where, as I'm not sure that's allowed.) The thread I'm referring to is more about aging and the impact it has on model railroading in general and S scale in particular.

Mark in Oregon

Yeah, and one thing mentioned to help enthusiasm is to post more and share info.  That’s what I thought of when going over the S Scale Model Railroading FB group.  But the thought of posting more on the FB group felt more like flogging a dead horse… there didn’t seem to be much give and take there.

Tom Stoltz

in snowy Maine

@Tom Stoltz posted:

This group is really quiet for this time of year.  S gauge got you down?  On the S-Scale io they’re talking about S cottage businesses and S scale turnouts.  The lament is only scale turnouts will save S.  Well maybe for, what’s their market share, 10-15% of S gaugers.  While I don’t see the rationale in that thought, I do understand the wishful thinking.

What do you think will save S in general?

Tom Stoltz

in Maine

Not to sound negative, but nothing will save it if you mean in the context of a viable RTR driven scale to compete with O, HO, and N. Will it disappear? No, because the scale folks can always build (3D printing is a bright spot), and the Flyer folks have no problem buying and running the existing 2nd hand Flyer stuff. It is not however, going to compete with the other scales.  That ship has sailed. The model RR hobby is contracting overall, and S is on the outside looking in.

I've been trying to make a go of it for about 15 years and it just never seems to work for me despite it being my favorite size by a long shot. It's disappointing to see how few people are really left in the scale. That's not the worst part either... when you factory in the economics of doing smaller runs with the current overseas manufacturing situation, and all the changes of the past few years and it seems highly unlikely that any new projects would be started. The majority of people in S wouldn't be willing to pay what the models would cost. Case in point - the latest Lionel 2-8-8-2s are sitting on dealer shelves at their $1800 price point. It's not just the high-priced stuff either. It seems that ScaleTrains is having slow sales with the hoppers, boxcars, and cabooses too and they are all priced very well imho.

I think that we are just at a point where the population wasn't big to start with and now it's shrinking. The economic realities of that make it unlikely that we will see any company producing anything other than reruns/repaints of existing tooling.

Having said all that, I'm still considering building a small S scale fantasy switching layout :-) I don't expect any newly tooled product in the future though. At best, Lionel releases the Legacy Mikado, ScaleTrains hopefully reruns SHS engines someday (doubtful), and American Models just stays in business.

I REALLY wish I could fall in love with the size of HO. Things would be much easier... LOL.

Jonathan, you make some good points and I agree, nothing is going to make S into a more viably player.  It is what it is, if it were going to change direction, that would have happened a long time ago.  So it will continue as is, except for the future of Hi-rail products.  I’m afraid I see that market shrinking as manufacturing costs increase and the players can no longer afford the costs of small runs.  I thought the cost of the Scale Trains offering was a bit pricey for ‘left-overs’, though buy I did.

American Flyer will be fine because there will always be Flyer on the second hand market.  Even if there is only one Flyer person left in the world, there will still be Flyer to be had.

Scale is interesting, I couldn’t predict what its future will look like.  As long as someone wants to build in that scale, then scale will survive.  And possibly a small cottage industry will support it.  I do agree that a good trackage system would help (goodness knows I don’t need any more rolling stock or engines) but should that be scale of Hi-rail?  With scale being such a small fraction (10% -15%?) of the already small market, it doesn’t seem like a wise investment to me.  I know from experience you can’t make enough numbered Hi-rail turnouts to satisfy the market.

I once thought about H0, but like so many have said; I have too much invested it another scale (S in my case) to make the switch.  Also age has made H0 too small.

Tom Stoltz

in Maine

Hi Tom,

I think we are all in a holding pattern.  My club built these huge modules that were difficult to manage 10 years ago, now unmanageable with current age of participants.  This can be gotten around, but hardening of the attitudes has made progress difficult, if not impossible.

That takes me down to the home floor layout: 4 Flyerchief and 3 old Flyer engines upgraded to DCC that are useless to me now.  Such are things now.  Can't put a happy face on it.

We will see how silent S gauge is when the next Lionel catalog is released. If there is a new Legacy release that will be a strong indicator of possibilities going forward. If there are just a few FlyerChief variations then I will take that as a bad sign. As mentioned above, Lionel could easily release a Legacy version of the TMCC light Mikado. In addition, they could re-release the Challenger with updated Legacy boards and whistle steam, same as they did for the Y3. Legacy engines are important because they have near scale level detail and they run conventional, Legacy or DCC. It just requires code 138 track (or larger) to use them.

I do not expect to see new engines from AM, maybe they will rerun things like E8's that are out of stock.

The bigger problem is TMCC engines and older Legacy engines can no longer be repaired because Lionel does not stock the boards and ERR discontinued a number of the TMCC boards.

Scale Trains S gauge engines are a ways off in the future and they will be DCC with a delete option for just DC. For those planning a new layout, DCC deserves thoughtful consideration even for high rail. It is straightforward to add DCC to AM engines. A can motor conversion and DCC works well in Gilbert engines. Most Legacy engines work with DCC. Plain DC works with all AM engines and Gilbert engines. It will damage all the Lionel TMCC engines and some early Legacy engines.

S is a niche for me, but a big niche.  My Christmas tree layout is a loop of Flyer FastTrack and Lionel 036, running 800/2800 series cars.  I've got a Milwaukee Road 4-8-4 and a 7 car orange stripe passenger train plus an assortment of freight cars.

Interesting thing is that the Flyer 4-8-4 is a Union Pacific "Little 800" but is also close enough to a Milwaukee Road S3 4-8-4.

@AmFlyer posted:

We will see how silent S gauge is when the next Lionel catalog is released. If there is a new Legacy release that will be a strong indicator of possibilities going forward. If there are just a few FlyerChief variations then I will take that as a bad sign.

Interesting, Tom.  I was under the impression that the last Lionel catalog had no S gauge offerings at all.  If that is so, why would you think the next catalog will have any?

Tom Stoltz

in Maine

I believe Lionel included no AF in 2023 Volume 2 was they had not released any new products since 2023 Volume 1. Obviously there were ongoing items like all the AF FasTrack, power and control, rolling stock, and Polar Express. Dave Olson has been commented that there will be more AF items but was not willing to commit to a lot more Legacy engines. I would hesitate to predict Spring vs Fall.

There are more detailed Command Control engines on my layout than I can run in a week. Here are 4 of 48 engines.  

From AmFlyer:  The bigger problem is TMCC engines and older Legacy engines can no longer be repaired because Lionel does not stock the boards and ERR discontinued a number of the TMCC boards.

I have harped on this issue a couple times.  This is where someone with electronic and software savvy starts a cottage industry to make drop in or almost drop in replacements.  I will guarantee you that some of the components on current loco circuit boards are already obsolete.  It is only going to get worse, and I'll bet that the old school Pre and Post war Lionel locos will still be running while many modern uProc based are on the scrap line. There is a current thread about the worm drive on a Lionel loco, and MTH was mentioned with similar issues, where the worm gear, the motor complete with worm gear are no longer supplied by Lionel and not shown as a replacement part.  But, you have to have enough need to make it worthwhile for someone to sit down and start cranking out repair parts, and they will have to more expensive than what you might expect.  When it comes to mechanics, few model train companies make things like worm gears and spur gears, that job might be contracted out, or bought from  McMaster and Carr stock inventory, where even the contractor might have bought from McMaster and Carr.  Still waiting to wear out the spur gears on my Lionel  post war steamers, but I have had to replace the fingers on a few E units. Came back to add a final note, and that is on the MTH locos, unsure about Lionel, if all the electronics are kaput, you can install a rectifier and filter, an electronic E unit, and convert it back to just FWD/N/REV with no sound, but it will still run.  That's where that wooden 3 chime whistle will come in handy.

Many postwar S and O gauge trains will likely be running after the last modern command control engine fails, There are a few people who are doing limited repairs on the boards. The deal killer is when the board has to be reprogrammed. Lionel has made it clear to the professional repair community they will no longer program boards nor will they provide repair people with the software and hardware to do it themselves.

@AmFlyer posted:

There are more detailed Command Control engines on my layout than I can run in a week. Here are 4 of 48 engines.  

Holy cow..."48"?

That's...lemme think...9 times the total number of scale S engines I currently have! 

Mark in Oregon

PS: (...although not crucial to the point I was making, I included the photo again just cuz it's an awesome picture....  )

@AmFlyer posted:

The deal killer is when the board has to be reprogrammed. Lionel has made it clear to the professional repair community they will no longer program boards nor will they provide repair people with the software and hardware to do it themselves.

And you would still buy from Lionel?????

Tom Stoltz

in Maine

"And you would still buy from Lionel?????"

Apparently, Lionel doesn't think so. Their 2024 Volume 1 catalogue was released this morning; and, unlike the 2023 Volume 2 version, it DOES include American Flyer--a whopping 6 pages of shrunken clips of "Still Available." That sure sounds like a description of an elderly patient hooked to a respirator while a priest hovers around the bed, waiting to administer the last rites.  

Anyone who wants to keep S scale equipment running and backed up with parts should consider American Models rolling stock. For A.C. Gilbert American Flyer equipment, Portline Hobbies has parts that keep for 70-year old locomotives operating.

@TOKELLY posted:

"And you would still buy from Lionel?????"

Apparently, Lionel doesn't think so. Their 2024 Volume 1 catalogue was released this morning; and, unlike the 2023 Volume 2 version, it DOES include American Flyer--a whopping 6 pages of shrunken clips of"Still Available." That sure sounds like a description of an elderly patient hooked to a respirator while a priest hovers around the bed, waiting to administer the last rites.  

Terry, does that mean nothing new?

Tom Stoltz

in Maine

I believe that there is nothing new, and the words evoke a sense of "left overs--get 'em while you can." Lionel used to plaster "NEW" over repaints with just a different road number, so the absence of that wild claim across those tiny pictures probably signifies the last stock. When the revised Y-3 appeared with an $800 increase for "whistle steam," it seemed to me to be an effort to prove to AF supporters within the company that American Flyer does not sell. It looks as though the AF supporters lost the argument. I hope I'm wrong!

@TOKELLY posted:

I believe that there is nothing new, and the words evoke a sense of "left overs--get 'em while you can." Lionel used to plaster "NEW" over repaints with just a different road number, so the absence of that wild claim across those tiny pictures probably signifies the last stock. When the revised Y-3 appeared with an $800 increase for "whistle steam," it seemed to me to be an effort to prove to AF supporters within the company that American Flyer does not sell. It looks as though the AF supporters lost the argument. I hope I'm wrong!

So it looks like we are down to American Models, and perhaps Scale Trains.  The rumor mill does not sound overly optimistic for S from Scale Trains, at least for this year.

Great, now what?

Tom Stoltz

in Maine

3D printing. As skills improve and costs of production (equipment, resins) decrease, 3D printing may begin to compete with injection molding for small volumes. For very small volumes, 3D printing is already more economical. There are some very impressive S scale parts on Shapeways for locomotives and rolling stock unavailable from the large, familiar manufacturers. Frames, wheels, gears, motors, and electronics are trickier to find; but a smaller startup company has a better chance now to make low volumes of product available if one understands the market. Zombies running atop ancient 40-ft boxcars painted with pictures of today's favorite candy bars is not the market.   

There are two new Polar Express American Flyer cars on P.149. The 2024 Catalog shows that Lionel has made no investment in S gauge for several years.

American Models is sold out of any engines I would consider buying but that is not really an issue any more. The only purchasers of AM engines now are conventional operators and those who want to install DCC. Conversion of AM diesels to TMCC/Railsounds is no longer possible with the discontinuance of the smaller ERR boards.

@AmFlyer posted:

American Models is sold out of any engines I would consider buying but that is not really an issue any more. The only purchasers of AM engines now are conventional operators and those who want to install DCC. Conversion of AM diesels to TMCC/Railsounds is no longer possible with the discontinuance of the smaller ERR boards.

You actually can find a couple versions of the RCM2 (Mini Commander 2) on Lionel parts, I believe they have LED directional lights and the optional outputs are electrocouplers.

RCM2 on Lionel Parts

Thanks, I need to ask Ed if these will fit in the American Models diesels.