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Anybody ever think realistically about their requests?  Like can 3rd Rail make money by doing them?  Did enough railroads have them?  Variety of roadnames and paint schemes?  Popularity amongst model railroaders?  Length of running era? Been produced before etc. ?

- Crank

Hmmm...  How would that sort of thinking relate to recent builds and reservations?

Such as...  Virginian EL-3A Electric, C&O Allegheny,  Krauss-Maffei ML 4000 Diesel Hydraulic, Milwaukee Road EP-3 Electric, B&O/ATSF EA/E1,...or digging deeper into the past: The N&W Jawn Henry ? 

Whether Scott is making money on his market assessment is really none of our business.  But, that he continues to be in this business...in this 'economy'...suggests he well knows his stuff and makes viable choices.

Popularity?  How would I, a near-octogenarian member of the ubiquitous, albeit aging, hoi polloi know of the viable popularity of a, say, Milwaukee EP-3 Electric, or a Krauss-Maffei (it had to have been stylized from a reflection in somebody's mirror on the morning after the night before that can hardly be remembered!!)  And, yet, there they were considered, there they were made, there they've (mostly) gone. 

Heck, the Krauss-Maffei was proffered, reserved, designed, built, shipped, and sold-out...presumably to devotees of the SP and DRGW, which were the only U.S. lion's-share purchasers of this creature's total 1:1 K-M production quantity of 37 units.  wow.

Meanwhile, devotees of the B&O/ATSF EA/E1 iconic diesels leading the styling parade of the transition from steam to diesel-electric in US railroading history (even honored with a USPS stamp) were long told that there was no market viability for such a project,  Go figure "think realistically"?!  But, finally...and, just as with the K-M choice, only two flags owned the prototypes.   (For us guys in this hobby, scratching our heads over the 'how-comes' of these choices is, IMHO, underrated as a leading cause of Androgenic Alopecia, more commonly termed Male Pattern Baldness, exacerbated by frequent, rapid, manual stimulation of the scalp when...supposedly..."thinking realistically".

Keep doing what you've been doing, Scott.  And, IMHO, avoid any temptation to use AI to sort all this out!

KD

Anybody ever think realistically about their requests?  Like can 3rd Rail make money by doing them?  Did enough railroads have them?  Variety of roadnames and paint schemes?  Popularity amongst model railroaders?  Length of running era? Been produced before etc. ?

- Crank

Yup.  I have thought realistically about all of them.  Some are long shots and some are pretty much 100% at some point (e.g. Alco PA re-run).  However, we know Lionel will never make a VGN EL-3A for the ~100 folks who might pay for one.

Aside from a one-off custom craftsman, in 2024 there are no other options besides 3rd Rail / GGD.

@dkdkrd posted:

Hmmm...  How would that sort of thinking relate to recent builds and reservations?

Such as...  Virginian EL-3A Electric, C&O Allegheny,  Krauss-Maffei ML 4000 Diesel Hydraulic, Milwaukee Road EP-3 Electric, B&O/ATSF EA/E1,...or digging deeper into the past: The N&W Jawn Henry ?

Whether Scott is making money on his market assessment is really none of our business.  But, that he continues to be in this business...in this 'economy'...suggests he well knows his stuff and makes viable choices.

Popularity?  How would I, a near-octogenarian member of the ubiquitous, albeit aging, hoi polloi know of the viable popularity of a, say, Milwaukee EP-3 Electric, or a Krauss-Maffei (it had to have been stylized from a reflection in somebody's mirror on the morning after the night before that can hardly be remembered!!)  And, yet, there they were considered, there they were made, there they've (mostly) gone.

Heck, the Krauss-Maffei was proffered, reserved, designed, built, shipped, and sold-out...presumably to devotees of the SP and DRGW, which were the only U.S. lion's-share purchasers of this creature's total 1:1 K-M production quantity of 37 units.  wow.

Meanwhile, devotees of the B&O/ATSF EA/E1 iconic diesels leading the styling parade of the transition from steam to diesel-electric in US railroading history (even honored with a USPS stamp) were long told that there was no market viability for such a project,  Go figure "think realistically"?!  But, finally...and, just as with the K-M choice, only two flags owned the prototypes.   (For us guys in this hobby, scratching our heads over the 'how-comes' of these choices is, IMHO, underrated as a leading cause of Androgenic Alopecia, more commonly termed Male Pattern Baldness, exacerbated by frequent, rapid, manual stimulation of the scalp when...supposedly..."thinking realistically".

Keep doing what you've been doing, Scott.  And, IMHO, avoid any temptation to use AI to sort all this out!

KD

Excellent commentary / point of view.

And just to add a bit of history/info - an EA Was actually owned by two other roads. B&O transferred One EA diesel to their subsidiary “The Alton”. This single unit had a long history as it eventually went to the GM&O when it the acquired The Alton. One diesel - two roads. I tried to get these added to the run but no-go. ☹️ Perhaps if there is someday an EA/E1 run 2, at least one of these diesels can be Added to the run. Both are Quite Attractive !!!
Alton36B86505-3EE4-4598-9CD3-ED9AD6B2D2D2B&O

A0659A09-E9C0-4062-A6C7-855D09B76066GM&O
87DCD23E-843B-435C-9782-4976C24556CB
Would be a perfect addition to My EA/E1 diesels.  Neither have been done in O scale  

Cheers 😉

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Last edited by TrainBub

I don't have any crystal balls, but Scott and I do talk fairly regularly, and I can say that he too is looking for the next project and the ones that will come after it as well.  As he has stated in other threads, it is getting harder to do newly tooled locomotives for a variety of reasons ranging from the consumer market, the economy of creating and selling product, all the way to geopolitical issues that have changed the industry as a whole.  No need to get into the details here other than to say this is not an easy business to be in, and the risk is fairly large.   

However, the pages of this forum have often led to that next model, and there is some good reading to see what the market might be for something new.  In the meantime, there is still work to be done on the Genesis and Charger locomotives but that is forthcoming.  The FAs are moving forward into production as the next "new" model.  The GP30 needs reservations.  There is also a healthy collection of quality tooling to do new runs of previous product.  There are paint schemes yet to be explored as well as the brand defining road specific detailing on many of those locomotives.

I would never say never to steam, but it is very, very difficult to do a great quality steam locomotive for the reasons stated above.  We need 75 forum members to agree to a prototype and then actually follow through and order it.  75 doesn't sound like a lot, but the reality is quite different.  If I had an extra $175,000 laying around give or take to guarantee a run of CNJ Pacifics 831-835 done correctly with the Wooten firebox, I'd do it in a heartbeat and hope that I could sell the 70 I didn't need by the time I leave this earth.  The same could be said for the PRR K2 I mentioned earlier.  Never done in O that I can find and just a nice change from the plethora of K4s on the market.  I have two of the High Iron Sunset K4s of 2004 and they fill that void well enough.  The K2 is a bit early for my modeling era, but I can always make up a good story on that "lone" survivor.   Also, a late PRR D16sb would be a wonderful model to grace my layout and maybe could have a little traction as #1223 operated on the Strasburg for many years and currently lives across the street in the PRR Museum. However, to counter my steam dreams from Sunset I am finding a great selection of older 2 rail steam on the secondary market including older Sunset models that can be updated and preserved for a future generation.   

For transition era diesels, I'd love to see a FM H-24-66 done correctly in O scale that I don't have to spend a fortune on in brass and then tons of time to get it to run well and paint it.  Same goes for the RS-3.  However, the challenge there is a technology one.  ERR is not a new system (yes shocking I know).  The boards are huge and when you factor in the speakers, the smoke unit, and the motor, the smaller locomotives are just not technically feasible in 3-rail.  The 2 rail boards are much smaller and offer greater functionality, but these projects only move forward with 3 and 2 rail models to meet the minimums.  Lionel did a nice job on the H-16-44, but I would have to rework it to 2-rail.  The HH Alcos are a great suggestion, but too small to do with all the features that are expected these days.

On 2nd generation diesel side?  I'd love to see the FP45 and SDP40Fs move forward with more of an interest in the SDP40Fs.  However, if I could replace my ScaleKing FP45s, I would more than happy to do so.  They are woefully inadequate for the cars they pull.  However, the interest hasn't been there to get the numbers.  Another personal interest would be the GP40P as I saw them in all their paint schemes during my lifetime.  However, it is another niche locomotive that likely couldn't generate the kinds of numbers to move forward.  After working on the SD40-2 for so long, I came to appreciate so many of the variations.  There are several I'd love to add if a second run comes around and there are countless roads that this could be done in still.  I see potential in the Alco Century Series even if I don't personally have much interest.  However, Apache Railroad C420s or M424s would quickly find a home in my collection and C630-636 is just a cool huge locomotive to add to nearly any collection.

Modern diesels are a bit of an enigma to me.  The Class 1 operators have settled on a few variations of the SD70 and the AC4400 and now the ET44C.  Maybe I am not paying attention, but I don't see the variety I used to in the freight locomotives.  The EMD and GE modern locomotives have been done and done well so often in 3-rail so I don't quite see the market for them.  It seems the passenger locomotive market is more obtainable in the Genesis and Siemens locomotives.  There just aren't great O scale examples out there.  However, the prototype market for modern passenger locomotives has become a lot like the historical market for steam locomotives.  A lot of small batches of non-standardized power from the likes of MK, Siemens, Alstom, and going back a few years to Bombardier. 

Finally, I'll conclude this very long post in stating that I'd be interested in a new run of brass GG1s that have a better drive mechanism than the original run.  I'd even be happy with a replacement drive to upgrade the ones I have. Add to that updated versions of the P5a in box cab and modified versions, a run of MP54s in PRR, PC, LIRR, and SEPTA, Silverliner and Arrow Cars, and finally a scale Metroliner and I'd be very happy.  I wish the E60 would have gone forward too, but I'd be in for an ACS-64 too if it were ever offered.   

Thanks for getting to the end of this long read. 

I would like to see some more Amtrak equipment,  Superliner II's  and Heritage Dome cars, Budd and ACF and also some Heritage baggage cars.  I would also add that a re-run of Great Northern Empire Builder cars including domes would be awesome.  Some of those domes could also be offered as Amtrak domes during the same run.  I would need both GN and Amtrak cars.

Last edited by MountainRail

I would like to see some more Amtrak equipment,  Superliner II's  and Heritage Dome cars, Budd and ACF and also some Heritage baggage cars.

This comment shows how times change.  10 years ago there were attempts to make Amtrak cars and there was little if any interest.  I remember when the the El Capitan was made I believe there were 3 sets done in Amtrak. And I think Jonathan and I got two of them.

@TrainBub posted:

Excellent commentary / point of view.

And just to add a bit of history/info - an EA Was actually owned by two other roads. B&O transferred One EA diesel to their subsidiary “The Alton”. This single unit had a long history as it eventually went to the GM&O when it the acquired The Alton. One diesel - two roads. I tried to get these added to the run but no-go. ☹️ Perhaps if there is someday an EA/E1 run 2, at least one of these diesels can be Added to the run. Both are Quite Attractive !!!
Alton36B86505-3EE4-4598-9CD3-ED9AD6B2D2D2B&O

A0659A09-E9C0-4062-A6C7-855D09B76066GM&O
87DCD23E-843B-435C-9782-4976C24556CB
Would be a perfect addition to My EA/E1 diesels.  Neither have been done in O scale  

Cheers 😉

I think there is a reasonable chance of this happening.  The EA/E1 did well and there has apparently been interest in acquiring more now that they are gone.  My EAs wnet back to Scott for someone because I didn't have a train to go with them and I waasn't much interested in one.

This brings up one aspect of this situation that has not been discussed.  People who will not reserve up front.  And there are a good number of them.  Once they are available and have been seen interest goes up appreciably.   That is why there are have been so many 2nd and even 3rd runs.  Even then they will not reserve ahead of time.  They are only interested in leftovers.

@rdunniii posted:

This brings up one aspect of this situation that has not been discussed.  People who will not reserve up front.  And there are a good number of them.  Once they are available and have been seen interest goes up appreciably.   That is why there are have been so many 2nd and even 3rd runs.  Even then they will not reserve ahead of time.  They are only interested in leftovers.

What’s good for the re-runs is that Scott can now show a Real Actual 3rd Rail model instead of some Artwork.  I think that helps pull in Real Reservations - IMO of course.
And yes, there will Still be late comers.
Cheers 😉

@TrainBub posted:

Excellent commentary / point of view.

And just to add a bit of history/info - an EA Was actually owned by two other roads. B&O transferred One EA diesel to their subsidiary “The Alton”. This single unit had a long history as it eventually went to the GM&O when it the acquired The Alton. One diesel - two roads. I tried to get these added to the run but no-go. ☹️ Perhaps if there is someday an EA/E1 run 2, at least one of these diesels can be Added to the run. Both are Quite Attractive !!!
Alton36B86505-3EE4-4598-9CD3-ED9AD6B2D2D2B&O

A0659A09-E9C0-4062-A6C7-855D09B76066GM&O
87DCD23E-843B-435C-9782-4976C24556CB
Would be a perfect addition to My EA/E1 diesels.  Neither have been done in O scale  

Cheers 😉

I might even add that doing these 2 engines could even spur interest in their Beautiful matching passengers cars !!!!!!

Here is a shot of the observation car from the “Museum of Transportation” in Kirkwood Mo. -St  Louis County.

18ED6BBD-3F9F-4DC4-BEEF-50AE16175100

Cheers 😉

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Last edited by TrainBub
@rdunniii posted:

This brings up one aspect of this situation that has not been discussed.  People who will not reserve up front.  And there are a good number of them.  Once they are available and have been seen interest goes up appreciably.   That is why there are have been so many 2nd and even 3rd runs.  Even then they will not reserve ahead of time.  They are only interested in leftovers.

That's part of it.  But it's also a) some people only relatively recently discovered 3rd rail / GGD so they missed out on things the first time and b) not everyone can bankroll everything they want in one run.  The E7s are a great example of this.

@GG1 4877 posted:
...

Modern diesels are a bit of an enigma to me.  The Class 1 operators have settled on a few variations of the SD70 and the AC4400 and now the ET44C.  Maybe I am not paying attention, but I don't see the variety I used to in the freight locomotives.  The EMD and GE modern locomotives have been done and done well so often in 3-rail so I don't quite see the market for them.  It seems the passenger locomotive market is more obtainable in the Genesis and Siemens locomotives.  There just aren't great O scale examples out there.  However, the prototype market for modern passenger locomotives has become a lot like the historical market for steam locomotives.  A lot of small batches of non-standardized power from the likes of MK, Siemens, Alstom, and going back a few years to Bombardier.

...

There are also ES44s.  And I disagree with them being done well.  Lionel is OK but not in 2-rail.  And finding the MTH 2-rail versions is rare and MTH has no interest in doing them anymore.  Apparently I'm not the only one who thinks they are not scale enough for 2-rail.

When Scott cancelled the Dash9s I asked if it would possible for his folks to just do the chassis so I could use them under Lionel and MTH AC and ES44s. No luck so far.  And with Central Locomotive Works planning on brass ES and ET44s it is once again a waiting game.  One of these days I'm just not going to live long enough.

Wabtec apparently can't make ET44s fast enough and Progress isn't interested in fixing the SD70T4. BNSF seems to even be turning back their earlier SD70s at the end of their lease in favor of ET44s. Remember BNSF likes having manufacturer maintenance where possible and that is not Progress right now.  Wabtec is also rebuilding AC44s and upgrading Dash9s to AC44s.  I'm a bit surprised Siemens isn't testing the waters.  Not much though as the rest of the world is going all electric.  And that is where Siemens shines.  China would like to try entering the market but...

Progress is apparently moving directly towards hydrogen.  That is still several years away and it remains to be seen who will salute that flag.  And they aren't making any money in the interim.

I am also seeing SD and GP40-2s all over the place these days that weren't seen in years due to the availability of new locomotives.

@rdunniii posted:

There are also ES44s.  And I disagree with them being done well.  Lionel is OK but not in 2-rail.  And finding the MTH 2-rail versions is rare and MTH has no interest in doing them anymore.  Apparently I'm not the only one who thinks they are not scale enough for 2-rail.

When Scott cancelled the Dash9s I asked if it would possible for his folks to just do the chassis so I could use them under Lionel and MTH AC and ES44s. No luck so far.  And with Central Locomotive Works planning on brass ES and ET44s it is once again a waiting game.  One of these days I'm just not going to live long enough.

Wabtec apparently can't make ET44s fast enough and Progress isn't interested in fixing the SD70T4. BNSF seems to even be turning back their earlier SD70s at the end of their lease in favor of ET44s. Remember BNSF likes having manufacturer maintenance where possible and that is not Progress right now.  Wabtec is also rebuilding AC44s and upgrading Dash9s to AC44s.  I'm a bit surprised Siemens isn't testing the waters.  Not much though as the rest of the world is going all electric.  And that is where Siemens shines.  China would like to try entering the market but...

Progress is apparently moving directly towards hydrogen.  That is still several years away and it remains to be seen who will salute that flag.  And they aren't making any money in the interim.

I am also seeing SD and GP40-2s all over the place these days that weren't seen in years due to the availability of new locomotives.

I don't disagree with this assessment Richard.  I should have stated that Lionel and MTH have done them "well enough" that the market might not be there to do them well by 3rd Rail.  "Progress" Rail seems an oxymoron based on what they have done with the late great EMD brand although hydrogen technology is interesting.  I like the looks and paint scheme of hydrogen powered CPKC 1001 though.  Built from a former Draper Taper SD40-2 I think?  That is an interesting prototype that like so many of these suggestions is really interesting, but likely has limited appeal. 

Siemens seems to be taking over the world market on electric freight locomotives with their Smartron locomotive.  I follow Siemens on LinkedIn and lots of railroads overseas are purchasing that.  I won't get into CA's recent study on electrifying Cajon Pass ..... dangerous territory!

However, maybe the GP40-2 would do better now that the SD40-2 has proven to be a success?  Everyday workhorses are certainly worth doing.   

John, your entire essay on 3rd Rail seems quite realistic. There might be some die hard PRR/N&W fans willing to pay around $1999.95 - $2499.95 (probably more) for a K3/E3 Pacific, but I think there might be more people willing to do a K4s run.

For the 3 rail RS-3s, It could be possible for 3rd Rail to just use Soundtraxx's Blunami 4408 decoder with a bridge rectifier so it could be powered by AC current. (Maybe they could do the same for 2 rail as well?)

Reruns would be nice too as they allow people who missed out on previous runs to have a chance of getting them again and being more cost effective.

Last edited by The-576-Guy

I suggest an EMD 4-axle Dash 2 model, late GP38-2, GP40-2, or GP50 with 39'-00" center to center bolster.  An MKT GP39-2 with larger radiator grilles and late anti-climber would be cool as a never-to-be-repeated limited edition.  The road and model combinations are endless with that wheelbase/mechanism.  Here are a couple of custom 2R models: a Frisco late GP38-2 with angled air filter box and corrugated radiator grilles, and a Mopac GP50 (modified Atlas GP60 shell) on Weaver GP38-2 mechs and Blunami 4408 decoders:

IMG_5279

3rd Rail could offer a great GP38, GP38-2, GP40, GP40-2 or GP50 regularly in a variety of roads.

I'd also be in for a rerun of SD40-2s, especially if MKT, Frisco, and/or a rerun of Mopac with dynamic brakes were offered to mix with my four MP non-DB units. 

Another idea is a proper 4-axle GE B23-7 (ATSF, CR, LN, MP/UP, PW, SR, SP) or B30-7 (BN, C&O, MP, Frisco, Cotton Belt, Seaboard, SP, Sou), with notable mention of Mopac B30-7A and BN B30-7A(B) cab-less models as limited editions.

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Last edited by Tim Mc

From 3rd Rail I'd like to see the GP40 and SDP40 in Montana Rail Link. The RS-3 would be nice to see but as per Jonathan's comment that might be unlikely unless they switch to DCS which is a while other bag of worms for another thread...

From GGD I'd like Amfleet IIs and Superliner IIs. I also think a run of vista dome cars in a large variety of roads would be nice. Rapido has done this method in HO scale before. There are several Budd domes that I'd like without buying a full train.

@Tim Mc posted:

I suggest an EMD 4-axle Dash 2 model, late GP38-2, GP40-2, or GP50 with 39'-00" center to center bolster.  An MKT GP39-2 with larger radiator grilles and late anti-climber would be cool as a never-to-be-repeated limited edition.  The road and model combinations are endless with that wheelbase/mechanism.  Here are a couple of custom 2R models: a Frisco late GP38-2 with angled air filter box and corrugated radiator grilles, and a Mopac GP50 (modified Atlas GP60 shell) on Weaver GP38-2 mechs and Blunami 4408 decoders:

IMG_5279

3rd Rail could offer a great GP38, GP38-2, GP40, GP40-2 or GP50 regularly in a variety of roads.

I'd also be in for a rerun of SD40-2s, especially if MKT, Frisco, and/or a rerun of Mopac with dynamic brakes were offered to mix with my four MP non-DB units. 

Another idea is a proper 4-axle GE B23-7 (ATSF, CR, LN, MP/UP, PW, SR, SP) or B30-7 (BN, C&O, MP, Frisco, Cotton Belt, Seaboard, SP, Sou), with notable mention of Mopac B30-7A and BN B30-7A(B) cab-less models as limited editions.

Great post Tim. 👍😉    
I too would would like to see a SD40-2 re-run. I’d Also definitely be in for MKT, Frisco, and MP with dynamic brakes !!!! 😜😜😜

@The-576-Guy posted:

It seems like 2nd gen diesels are what everyone wants

From a 3 rail standpoint the modern stuff has been covered decently well. Lionel's SD70ACes, ES44s and upcoming ET44s are very nice as are the MTH/ Atlas SD70ACe and ES44. Some of the 90s/ 2000s era diesels are a little lacking in detail and fine scale fidelity (ie SD70MAC and Dash 9) but not so bad that they're worth having 3rd Rail do when we could see models like the GP38/40/50 which haven't been done well or in some cases at all. That's my 2 cents anyway.

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