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I hope this isn't truly terrible news …..

"Atlas has received notification from one of our locomotive and rolling stock suppliers that they have closed their factory. (Please note Atlas track and accessories are NOT affected by this delay.) Atlas is currently working with our network of suppliers to transfer the projects to others for completion. This will cause a delay in some previously ordered products. We apologize for this delay, thank you for your continued support, and will update you with more information as it becomes available. "

ATLAS

There was a general announcement (not manufacturer specific) on social media, with possibly more details about the factory. I'm not on F.B. or anything, anyone here have it?

I'm pulling for ya Atlas …..  we're all in this together.

Last edited by CNJ Jim
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Dennis LaGrua posted:

Absolutely great news and a new opportunity for the factory to return to Hillside NJ.

"Atlas is currently working with our network of suppliers to transfer the projects to others for completion."

In other words, not moving back to Hillside.

What I wonder is:  Was this factory dedicated solely to Atlas or are other companies also affected?

Rusty

EBT Jim posted:

Trying to find out if this concerns O or HO. Either way …. stinks.

Unfortunately it seems to be the norm there in China Manufacturing. Approximately every 5-7 years one shuts down and another opens up somewhere else. The trick is to get access to your tooling and move it completely to another manufacturing factility.  You [American importer] also hope that no one else has taken it and secretly made your items to be sold by someone else because after all, the government of China owns 53 percent of " your stuff" in their country!

 

Last edited by prrhorseshoecurve
Dennis LaGrua posted:

Absolutely great news and a new opportunity for the factory to return to Hillside NJ.

AS Much as I like the garden state, forget NJ to start up any mfg. here! This tax and spend administration does NOT make it viable for businesses. you might as well set up shop in PA or DE and save some dough!

Really?  Paid Family leave! You are lucky yo get a health care plan and matching in your 401k [if you even have one or are eligible for one] within a year!

Last edited by prrhorseshoecurve
Jim Waterman posted:

I can just see it now, a couple of hundred employees each running out the back door with a couple of pieces of production tooling. 

 

Something much like this happened in the plastic kit industry. One manufacture went under/closed. Tooling was to be transferred to another shop. Some vital tooling met with an accident and was beyond use.  This with some other events ended up with the company being sold. FYI

prrhorseshoecurve posted:

  You [American importer] also hope that no one else has taken it and secretly made your items to be sold by someone else because after all, the government of China owns 53 percent of " your stuff" in their country!

 

And there is the biggest ignored issue with manufacturing in China. I've worked with manufactures in China and they did good work. BUT this deal where China is the majority partner, like it or not, in your business is a bomb waiting to explode.  If you study up on the Chinese '100 year plan' it will reveal their end game.....if we keep playing along. 

"That's not the case for Mike Wolf. How does he manage too keep the same factory?"

I'm pretty sure that isn't entirely correct.  There was Samhongsa in Korea, who did all their diecast locos, and disappeared some years back.  More recently I seem to recall that at least one of the factories MTH was using closed down and there was some delay in finding another facility to use the tooling.

Our importers apparently have very little direct control of the factories in China, at least for these cottage industries, which are small potatoes compared with the likes of Apple, as an extreme example.

Last edited by Landsteiner

To be fair, Atlas never produced O gauge locomotives and rolling stock out of Hillside, NJ. The company did make track there for a long time and also produced N scale freight cars at its New Jersey plant for roughly 15 years before moving all production to China.

In fact, all other products sold under the Atlas name came from plants elsewhere over the years.

In the 1970s, Atlas worked extensively with Roco in Austria for O, HO and N scale locomotives and some O gauge rolling stock and imported some Rivarossi locomotives in N scale from Italy.

In the 1980s, Atlas began working with Kato in Japan for a line of N scale locomotives.

After all manufacturing switched to China, everything went fairly smoothly until Atlas and dozens of other train manufacturers were booted out of the Sanda Kan factory after Kader (Bachmann’s parent company) purchased the facility. Since then, many of those companies have had production problems, including delays and quality issues. The region of China where almost all of our trains are made reportedly has a labor shortage, which is contributing to those problems.

- Did not Lionel and Atlas share a diesel and rolling stock builder at one time, say, 10 years ago? I perceived that their product in certain categories were apparently identical, for a while. 

- On the MTH question, did not/does not MTH actually own some production facilities? In Korea, maybe?

I'm out of touch with this end of things, obviously.

D500 posted:

- Did not Lionel and Atlas share a diesel and rolling stock builder at one time, say, 10 years ago? I perceived that their product in certain categories were apparently identical, for a while. 

- On the MTH question, did not/does not MTH actually own some production facilities? In Korea, maybe?

I'm out of touch with this end of things, obviously.

Lionel and Atlas both had product made at Sanda Kan until 2010. Same place as K-Line, USA Trains, Athearn and many others globally.

The economics of this situation is not lost on me but there are locations in this great country where wage rates are low.  Why can't the design and production be brought back?  Just think of the cost savings in travel to the Orient and back to check on design and production and, of course, the cost of shipping back to the the USA.  Seems workable to me.  It is up to Atlas, Sunset and others to work out the details and to determine actual feasibility.  But a closed factory seems like reason enough to explore the possibility.

Ed

Will Ebbert posted:

As much as I'd like to see American production, I understand it's not feasible. What might be a good option for Atlas is to move in to the Rapido factory. Jason had mentioned wanting another train manufacturer in the with him. 

As a side note, I guess my wallet gets another break from having to pay for my F3s and SD40...

Here are a couple of video links from Rapido about its factory in China in 2016 and its plans in late 2017 to move to a different region in China and information on production problems in China:

https://youtu.be/tlbMfyaOykE

https://youtu.be/4uTSdY4dGGY

Ed Kelly posted:

The economics of this situation is not lost on me but there are locations in this great country where wage rates are low.  Why can't the design and production be brought back?  Just think of the cost savings in travel to the Orient and back to check on design and production and, of course, the cost of shipping back to the the USA.  Seems workable to me.  It is up to Atlas, Sunset and others to work out the details and to determine actual feasibility.  But a closed factory seems like reason enough to explore the possibility.

Ed

It's happening in the plastic kit industry. A  new company has started and is 100% made in USA.  The design, tooling, manufacture, packaging ALL done in southern California!!!! Now the price is about 16% more than the China produced kits.......but cost of a totally new start-up needs to be taken into account. 

And yes....development time went from 2-3 years for a kit from China to just shy of 12 months for USA kit.  I know a powered loco with multiple PC boards, assembled and painted is a apple to orange compare....but it does shine light it can be done stateside.

I can't get to weepy about the American companies getting burned by the Chinese. They asked for it so now they pay. These companies, such as they are-sit in the US with a couple of computers and telephones and communicate back & forth with China. They are lazy, take the easy way, make a few bucks and go on to something else. Guess what ??  Suck it up !!  Deal with it !!  Quit crying.

D500 posted:

- On the MTH question, did not/does not MTH actually own some production facilities? In Korea, maybe?

I'm out of touch with this end of things, obviously.

According to the video tour posted on train World TV, MTH's facility is dedicated to just MTH. There might be separate sites dedicated to RailKing and Premier, respectively (I haven't reviewed the video recently, at nearly an hour and a half, it is a bit of effort to rewatch for a forum post ). 

As for the idea of setting up a facility in a low-wage part of the US, there is also the issue of the network of sub-contractors needed to supply parts and assemblies that aren't practical to manufacture in-house (nuts/bots/screws/circuit boards, for example)

(Edit:, after re-viewing the Rapido video's linked to by Jim R. above, there is also the not-insubstantial issue of accumulated institutional knowledge needed to do the job properly--some of the engineers shown have been working in model train manufacture for 20+ years)

---PCJ

Last edited by RailRide
a1hobo posted:

This is certainly getting to be the norm for Atlas. I like their products and own my fair share, but this is getting real old. Regardless of who closed or walked out, etc, etc. it’s still on Atlas’s shoulders. Wonder how much more of this before the customer base will be affected. I know I am tired of it. 

I'll bet that this potentially sucks more for me than most folks. I sold off all of my 3-rail stuff (except for my Christmas layout) and have been waiting for my 2-rail Atlas engines to arrive so I can play with some trains. I'm also eagerly awaiting some HO engines from Atlas, as I've sold off most of my older equipment.

Still, this stuff sucks more for Atlas, than it sucks for any of us.

I'll always support Atlas …. they've been a big part of the hobby for me. Nice folks, too.

jim pastorius posted:

I can't get to weepy about the American companies getting burned by the Chinese. They asked for it so now they pay. These companies, such as they are-sit in the US with a couple of computers and telephones and communicate back & forth with China. They are lazy, take the easy way, make a few bucks and go on to something else. Guess what ??  Suck it up !!  Deal with it !!  Quit crying.

Clearly a lesson in economics is required here as well as a lesson on how the model railroad manufacturing process actually works.  Always easy to be an armchair quarterback when one has no knowledge of the subject. 

This is not good news for the industry as a whole.  If Lionel was the topic of this loss of a factory, the discussion would be much different on this forum. 

Yes Jim, that's all a person needs to run a business producing products in china and importing them into the US. If it were that easy, everybody here would be building and importing trains and we'd all have all of the models we ever wanted. I have a computer and a phone should I start a train business with china?

dkdkrd posted:

Other manufacturers are, indeed, involved...and not just in the O market...

Bowser, Fox Valley, Intermountain Railways to name a few.

Our (LHS) info is that the supplier became star-crossed with the Chinese government...who simply shut them down.  

C'est la vie.

So, KD …. do you guys know if it DOES include Atlas' O scale products … and not just HO?

Jim

jim pastorius posted:

I can't get to weepy about the American companies getting burned by the Chinese. They asked for it so now they pay. These companies, such as they are-sit in the US with a couple of computers and telephones and communicate back & forth with China. They are lazy, take the easy way, make a few bucks and go on to something else. Guess what ??  Suck it up !!  Deal with it !!  Quit crying.

You probably need to talk to Scott Mann of 3rd Rail and find out what doing business in the Far East is like in the real world. From what he's said in the past, the words "difficult, painstaking, often frustrating, and HARD WORK" would seem to describe what the reality is. I knew the guy who owned the late Pecos River models, who had some work done in China, and that's exactly how he described it, too.

Last edited by breezinup

At Spring York 2017 I made mention to Atlas in their booth about the long delays getting engines manufactured.  They seemed to think it was ok to catalog and deliver 3-4 years later or longer in some cases.  I think the business model has issues if this keeps happening over and over.  No more Atlas engine orders for me, just rolling stock.  They should just stick to rolling stock, as they are pretty good at that!

Last edited by MichRR714

I was just reading the discussion about this factory closing on the Model Railroading board of Trainorders.com. There is a VERY interesting post from a Jason, of "Rapido Trains", some of his statements are quoted here: "......KK has decided to close Affatech.", and "KK is at retirement age, and his children don't want to take over the business." .

Assuming this is true, about "KK" retiring (whom ever 'KK' is), I wonder why this came as such a surprise to Atlas, Bowser, etc.? Surely there have been discussions about his retirement and closing Affatech previously.

 

Two things have dragged Atlas O down...the untimely death of Jim Weaver and the loss of the factory a few years back that now handles Bachmann.  They still have not recovered and any progress has taken very long.  If this factory (and that's a huge if because it remains to be seen) manufacturers O gauge, well....it ain't gonna be good, that's for sure.  BigRail.

GG1 4877 posted:
jim pastorius posted:

I can't get to weepy about the American companies getting burned by the Chinese. They asked for it so now they pay. These companies, such as they are-sit in the US with a couple of computers and telephones and communicate back & forth with China. They are lazy, take the easy way, make a few bucks and go on to something else. Guess what ??  Suck it up !!  Deal with it !!  Quit crying.

Clearly a lesson in economics is required here as well as a lesson on how the model railroad manufacturing process actually works.  Always easy to be an armchair quarterback when one has no knowledge of the subject. 

This is not good news for the industry as a whole.  If Lionel was the topic of this loss of a factory, the discussion would be much different on this forum. 

You'reright! However Lionel was smart enough to get the former Weaver tooling and mfg in the USA the Lionscale products. I hope they will continue this with expansion of locomotive production of the GP38 and RS3. This will give Lionel a "plan b" back up should they fall into a similar situation.

Last edited by prrhorseshoecurve
prrhorseshoecurve posted

You're rihri. However Lionel was smart enough to get the former Weaver tooling and mfg in the USA the Lionscale products. I hope they will continue this with expansion of locomotive production of the GP38 and RS3. This will give Lionel a "plan b" back up should they fall into a similar situation.

If I'm not mistaken, Weaver locomotives, passenger cars, and high end freight cars like the Milwaukee Road box cars were all made in China. 

Watch the rapido  videos and ask yourself who in the American workforce is willing to sit there and remove tiny plastic parts from the sprues all day long......year after year. 

Then has the talent to skillfully assemble the products that would satisfy this rivet counting marketplace...

Korea and China has the talent and that's why it's made there.

 

 

 

Will Ebbert posted:

If I'm not mistaken, Weaver locomotives, passenger cars, and high end freight cars like the Milwaukee Road box cars were all made in China. 

You are correct Will. 

One of the challenges with this news is that you are seeing the result of not only a changing demographic in the hobby, but the also in the people who are dedicated to bringing these products to market.  It's a hard business model to succeed in, especially considering the ever changing global economic landscape.  The best product coming to market has been brought to us by people who have had decades in this business and they are not able to find adequate replacements for their retirement.  It's easy to make generalizations about anyone who manages the day to day operations of a factory, but the reality is they are good at what they do from years of experience.  This is true whether it's is China or the US. 

 

Will Ebbert posted:
prrhorseshoecurve posted

You're rihri. However Lionel was smart enough to get the former Weaver tooling and mfg in the USA the Lionscale products. I hope they will continue this with expansion of locomotive production of the GP38 and RS3. This will give Lionel a "plan b" back up should they fall into a similar situation.

If I'm not mistaken, Weaver locomotives, passenger cars, and high end freight cars like the Milwaukee Road box cars were all made in China. 

Not Quite. The Gp38 and Rs3's were made here! The AlCo RS11, RSD12, and BLW Vo1000 were made in China. The Ultra Line of Freight cars were made here- and subsequently are now called Lionscale.  Some Die cast parts were made in China, but the GP38- Shell, Truck Side Frames, Railings all were made here! The ALCo RS3 Bodies, Frames, and Fuel tank were made here!

Last edited by prrhorseshoecurve
prrhorseshoecurve posted:
Will Ebbert posted:
prrhorseshoecurve posted

You're rihri. However Lionel was smart enough to get the former Weaver tooling and mfg in the USA the Lionscale products. I hope they will continue this with expansion of locomotive production of the GP38 and RS3. This will give Lionel a "plan b" back up should they fall into a similar situation.

If I'm not mistaken, Weaver locomotives, passenger cars, and high end freight cars like the Milwaukee Road box cars were all made in China. 

Not Quite. The Gp38 and Rs3's were made here! The AlCo RS11, RSD12, and BLW Vo1000 were made in China. The Ultra Line of Freight cars were made here- and subsequently are now called Lionscale.  Some Die cast parts were made in China, but the GP38- Shell, Truck Side Frames, Railings all were made here! The ALCo RS3 Bodies, Frames, and Fuel tank were made here!

GP 38-2 one of Weaver's last offerings.  Note that the truck side frames are molded plastic attached to metal trucks. 

Weaver RS-3 was also offered late, but had several different drive and detail packages over the years. 

Weaver had a pretty good in house paint and pad printing shop, able to do a lot of their own detail and custom work.  There is or was discussion of the "made in the USA" product detail.  As with a lot of product in the USA there were component percentage rules that detailed the "made in the USA" stamp.  

jim pastorius posted:

Nice looking locos. Better than some others I have seen.

Only detail that detracts, is the visible motor/electronics in the cab area.  The two pictured had EOB speed control and electro-couplers, though Weaver offered the models several ways, even conventional.   Weaver had the ability to hedge their bets when dealing with foreign production, worse case, they could assemble a product from their own facility.  IMO.  

Last edited by Mike CT

There are a lot of questions with any business, and when you are dealing with making things in China the questions seem to get more complicated. For example, China is trying to move their country more upscale into high end products rather than just low cost assembly for companies outside the country, and that could make it more difficult to make trains there, finding labor if there is competition from better paying industries, might leave this kind of work to be honest with fly by night piecemeal operators who may not be the most stable of operators. It already is difficult dealing with contracted out manufacturing, SLA's mean pretty much nothing and you can only hope the people on the other end are operating in good faith, and they run into problems with secondary suppliers (hardware, circuit boards, etc).  China right now in many ways is in flux, things are changing (leaving out the whole trade/political situation which isn't really relevant here), and it is going to be reflected in the model the various train manufacturers are using. The thing is, I don't know of another model that is going to work, if China gets too expensive then I suspect you might see trains made in Vietnam or Malaysia or perhaps Africa if low wage production is what they want, or potentially maybe Chinese companies working in Mexico, it already is happening).  

 

 

Dave Funk posted:

Watch the rapido  videos and ask yourself who in the American workforce is willing to sit there and remove tiny plastic parts from the sprues all day long......year after year. 

Then has the talent to skillfully assemble the products that would satisfy this rivet counting marketplace...

Korea and China has the talent and that's why it's made there.

 

 

 

Having spent years in the hobby removing tiny plastic parts from sprues I would say one good way to market O-Scale products might be to return to kits or semi-kits.  Consumers might also appreciate an engine in the $250 range instead of the $450 range even if it meant a lot of detailing would have to be added by the purchaser.  Even if a manufacturer/importer were to offer engines both ways- ready to go out of the box and semi-kit, it might increase overall product sales to help recover development costs while allowing more modelers to have the engine.  Win-win?

Bill Chaplik posted: 

 

Having spent years in the hobby removing tiny plastic parts from sprues I would say one good way to market O-Scale products might be to return to kits or semi-kits.  Consumers might also appreciate an engine in the $250 range instead of the $450 range even if it meant a lot of detailing would have to be added by the purchaser.  Even if a manufacturer/importer were to offer engines both ways- ready to go out of the box and semi-kit, it might increase overall product sales to help recover development costs while allowing more modelers to have the engine.  Win-win?

I'd love rolling stock kits along the line of old Blue box Athearn HO kits. I'd even build great quality locos minus electronics.....easy to buy from folks like Dallee. 

Disclaimer: I've been accused of being on the lunatic fringe of both the model train and model car hobby.....so who knows. 

AMCDave posted:
Bill Chaplik posted: 

 

Having spent years in the hobby removing tiny plastic parts from sprues I would say one good way to market O-Scale products might be to return to kits or semi-kits.  Consumers might also appreciate an engine in the $250 range instead of the $450 range even if it meant a lot of detailing would have to be added by the purchaser.  Even if a manufacturer/importer were to offer engines both ways- ready to go out of the box and semi-kit, it might increase overall product sales to help recover development costs while allowing more modelers to have the engine.  Win-win?

I'd love rolling stock kits along the line of old Blue box Athearn HO kits. I'd even build great quality locos minus electronics.....easy to buy from folks like Dallee. 

Disclaimer:I've been accused of being on the lunatic fringe of both the model train and model car hobby.....so who knows. 

Take heart, fellow fringe-friend!  We are not alone!  We may even be legion!

Among my favorite quotations..."There is a correlation between the creative and the screwball.  So we must suffer the screwball gladly!".....Kingman Brewster Jr. (American educator/diplomat)

KD

Last edited by dkdkrd

My initial thought regarding Bill's "let them have kits" response above was "heck no" but; I have to admit that after pondering this for a bit; I have concluded it would actually be fun to occasionally assemble cars or engines from kits.  Like many on here; I grew up in the era when we assembled model ships, planes and cars.  I can remember some of the aircraft and particularly the ships had a tremendous number of small detail parts that had to be removed from sprues and added to the model.  And in retrospect; it was all quality time!

Since my layout has more or less been completed for a number of years; I have started to find enjoyment in some minor weathering and detailing of rolling stock so; assembling rolling stock and locomotive kits seems like a logical next step in that progression.

Curt

I received an email from an HO mail order dealer listing the companies affected and their response. Looks like the only O gauge importer affected may be Atlas. Also the main driver behind the shutdown was increasing labor shortages and cost.

Here's the bulk of the email. It addresses the affect on HO production and doesn't say anything directly about O.

In case you haven’t already heard, a large Chinese suppler of model trains just closed its doors, not for lack of orders but lack of labor and escalating costs:  This will affect most manufactures, Atlas and Bowser say this affects all products announced since January 2018, Fox Valley says most all of their new products, Walthers and Rapido say this does not affect them, they have been transferring production to other factories, we may learn more next month that the National Train Show in Kansas City, MO August 5-12th, if you’re going to the show let us know what you hear.

 

Atlas has received notification from one of our locomotive and rolling stock suppliers that they have closed their factory. (Please note Atlas track and accessories are NOT affected by this delay.) Atlas is currently working with our network of suppliers to transfer the projects to others for completion. This will cause a delay in some previously ordered products. We apologize for this delay, thank you for your continued support, and will update you with more information as it becomes available. 

 

Bowser says this will affect future product, more information to follow, they have removed projected delivery dates for all projects from their website till they have more information.

 

Fox Valley: Over the weekend, news broke that a large supplier of model trains in China has closed its doors. Fox Valley Models has used this factory for a large portion of our products. As of today, there is no clear path that will resume production in short order, or an easy way to move projects. With this news, we must reluctantly list all previously announced products as Postponed/Cancelled. If projects can be moved, it will take a number of months to do so, and then get a new factory up to speed on our projects will take even more time. We will keep all previously recorded pre-orders on file. If a resolution presents itself over the next few months, we will reconfirm specific projects as they get close (well into next year at best). If this process takes and extended time, it may be best to re-announce each project. 

 

Intermountain railway company has become aware that our sole supplier in China has discontinued business without warning.  This will result in our not having any new product releases for an undetermined period of time.  Our expectation is that we will begin shipping a selection of new product within four months.  Please be assured that Intermountain is dedicated to continuing to produce our high quality product line.  Purchase orders with alternate vendors are already being arranged so we anticipate production to resume very soon.

 

Rapido has been shifting production to a new factory in Guangxi province and is ramping up production, says it takes time to train all of the new people, and models only leave the factory if they are at the required Rapido quality level. It's been a difficult transition period as the Rapido factory has moved twice in the last year, but we're almost through it. Training new people is nothing new. The problem with the last location is that we couldn't keep people more than a few weeks due to the labor shortage in the area. We were always having to train new people. At least now when we train them, they will stay for longer!  Previously:  The vast majority of the world's model trains are made in Dongguan, China. That is where Sanda Kan and Kader had their factories, and that is where the global expertise in model train manufacturing is centered. As I discuss in our most recent video, the rising costs in southern China mean that it is becoming difficult to make model trains there. Our prices are creeping up, but the costs are going up far more quickly.

 

Walthers says this does not affect any Walthers brand items i.e. Proto, Cornerstone, Mainline, SceneMaster, etc., but that Shinorhara track will be discontinued and replaced with Walthers code 83.

 

Ken

Another part of the hobby, I had an older SW9, that had Dallee Electronics and Sound.  Poor at best.  I managed to acquire Used parts, and TMCC electronics from different sources.  The rebuild was time consuming, it was fortunate that I had other SW9's to model/check wiring and spacing.  Eventually the model came together and works as well as my other Atlas SW9.  IMO few in the hobby would spend this time on a model.  

I spent some time, with a dremel tool, to carefully install a better speaker in the fuel tank area.  Atlas supplied the speaker speaker screen, and some other parts I needed. 

 I carefully removed the speaker mounts from inside the hood area, and installed a used TAS, TMCC assembly.  I also changed the lamps to 18 volt, and have some work to do installing the run/program switch and  Sound/No Sound switch.  I also added the electro-couplers and covers, which required some under-frame adjustment. 

Electro-coupler installed. 

Antenna needs to be installed inside the plastic cab, mounted to the roof. Was done with a small piece of copper sheet installed on the ceiling of the cab.  A wire connected the copper sheet to the PC board. 

Good bit of work to be done/complete/ it operates well.

 

When TAS did these Dallee upgrades many years ago, they were using new frames from Atlas, which at the very least allowed for the speaker in the fuel tank.  I did some modification to the front and rear truck mounts as well as the coupler swing area to mount the electro-couplers.  The mounts inside the front hood area also have to be removed. 

ERR is a smaller package.

I did run the Dallee unit briefly.  IMO, speaker quality was poor compared to my other Atlas SW9's. Pictured round speaker is an Atlas replacement.  

The used TAS board was missing the front and rear aluminum mounts, when I got it.  Atlas supplied new mounting post and all the screws

Last edited by Mike CT
david1 posted:

Although engine kits or semi kits sounds like a good idea I'm not sure it would sell. 

Very few people do kits of any kind.

But I would like to see the mfg. give it a try. Maybe just a detail kit for a locomotive that the mfg. builds without the details added, hence a cheaper locomotive to buy.

Dave

I might agree with questionable consumer acceptance of a return to kits.  Our (LHS) own sales in model railroading and other hobby branches....like RC airplanes, drones, boats, helicopters, etc., etc....says that the typical hobby consumer has become less inclined to build.  And even though the long-ago relatively cheap prices of factory-assembled items have crept up to eye-popping levels in the past few years, the desire to hone one's own skills...maybe left dormant for those 20 years, or so...has gone bye-bye probably forever for many of those folks.

But, I've long been of the understanding that China government/manufacturing 'policy' has strongly resisted the manufacture and selling of parts/kits under the premise that it leaves open the possibility of someone else, some other nationality, assembling/selling the parts into a higher order product to compete with them.  I am, for instance, aware of some model railroad r-t-r items (esp. locomotives) made exclusively for a large U.S. distributor whose only recourse for providing warranty parts/repairs is to cannibalize a reserved supply of complete assemblies.

Perhaps this policy/practice has changed or been relaxed more recently, but it might be a hurdle yet to be crossed in offering 'some assembly required' options?

Then, again, I've been away from the old lines of this sort of international market/manufacturing communication for several blissful years now......so what the heck do I know? 

I yield to them that do know.

KD

Will Ebbert posted:

And let's not forget that this factory shut down for a lot of people is more than a couple delayed trains. It means people don't have jobs to provide for their families. 

Let’s not also forget that when production moved to China, that many Americans lost the means to provide for their families. 

GregR posted:
Will Ebbert posted:

And let's not forget that this factory shut down for a lot of people is more than a couple delayed trains. It means people don't have jobs to provide for their families. 

Let’s not also forget that when production moved to China, that many Americans lost the means to provide for their families. 

Job-loss in China is of no relevance to this discussion. Nor do I care.

Job-loss in the US is a bit more relevant, if yesterday's news, but I've quit caring about that, too, as a nation that won't do the work is not to be admired.

GregR posted:
Will Ebbert posted:

And let's not forget that this factory shut down for a lot of people is more than a couple delayed trains. It means people don't have jobs to provide for their families. 

Let’s not also forget that when production moved to China, that many Americans lost the means to provide for their families. 

It's a matter of looking at the big picture. There is still a ton of manufacturing done in America, but what is done here is highly automated. Model train manufacturing is extremely difficult to automate, and labor costs are too high here. The retail price of model railroad rolling stock would probably rise by a factor of four (at a minimum) if it was manufactured here. That's not a viable business model and we need to understand that.

Jeff C

For those who think locomotive models in kit form would save big money, guess again. The cost is in designing the models, tooling up for a project and manufacturing the parts. Assembly accounts for a fraction of the costs — likely less than 15 percent.

And even that savings is questionable, given the labor costs that would be required to package individual components from various sources. 

GregR posted:
Will Ebbert posted:

And let's not forget that this factory shut down for a lot of people is more than a couple delayed trains. It means people don't have jobs to provide for their families. 

Let’s not also forget that when production moved to China, that many Americans lost the means to provide for their families. 

As already stated, Atlas O never made products in America to begin with so this is a moot point here. 

Last edited by Will Ebbert
Will Ebbert posted:
palallin posted:

I don't buy the argument that production costs here would be 2 or 3 or 4 times the costs in China:  when the production moved FROM here TO China, prices rose; they didn't fall.

Minimum wage in China is about $380USD a month. In the US it's about $1200. Simple math. 

Not to mention the fact that there is no OSHA, and very little EPA regulations for a small business to deal with.

Ridiculous to compare a minimum wage in China to in the US. Different economies, different lifestyles. I did read before all this happened tht labor supply was short and  wages were up. Low cost manufacturing was moving out of China to Viet Nam and other places. Besides the owner of this critical plant probably got a big order to make magazines for their assault rifles.

jim pastorius posted:

Ridiculous to compare a minimum wage in China to in the US. Different economies, different lifestyles. I did read before all this happened tht labor supply was short and  wages were up. Low cost manufacturing was moving out of China to Viet Nam and other places. Besides the owner of this critical plant probably got a big order to make magazines for their assault rifles.

If you read what I posted previously, the owner of the factory in question (Affatech), retired. His family/kids did NOT have any interest in running the business.

 

Will Ebbert posted:
palallin posted:

I don't buy the argument that production costs here would be 2 or 3 or 4 times the costs in China:  when the production moved FROM here TO China, prices rose; they didn't fall.

Minimum wage in China is about $380USD a month. In the US it's about $1200. Simple math. 

Simple math, but with a fundamental flaw, assuming that labor costs are basically the whole cost of a product, it is why simple answers often aren't. While labor costs are  often the largest percent cost in a company, that doesn't mean the cost of production is linear like that and the reason for the difference in costs. Depending on the product, labor makes up a percentage of the cost, but not necessarily a big one (for example, on an Iphone, based on an article I read, the biggest cost in the unit is the chip set that runs it, labor was like 15% of the cost), the cost of the chip set was like 170 bucks or so and was something around 60% of the cost of building it. 

Too, each manufactured unit has costs associated with it from the cost of the tooling, that is spread over each unit they build and sell, it is factored into the price, as is the cost of shipping, the cost of designing the unit and the tooling, the manufacturing cost (that includes of course labor, but also includes local costs of electricity, cost of space, cost of materials, etc), depreciation is factored into the cost, as if the cost of quality (basically, the cost of bad quality ie the expected cost of repairing the units under warranty, the cost of ones that come to the US DOA, are not even shipped from the factory so cannot be sold, and believe me lionel knows all these numbers).  Based on similarly manufactured items, the usually estimates given are around 15-20% more cost if built in the US. Someone analyzed Stanley Tool when they moved to China, and they figured out that on an 11 buck tape measure the difference in price between US made and China was about a buck to a buck fifty (if you notice, not 44 bucks). A 1000 buck engine would likely cost around 1200 if made in the US if those numbers hold up (and I suspect they do). China has now gotten expensive enough that that gap may be even less, plus with China keep in mind the cost of shipping is going up as well as labor rates because of the cost of oil. The other thing is that China is moving upscale, workers they have that can do this kind of work want something better, and for a variety of reasons the unskilled workers from rural areas don't work the way it once did., it is why Chinese factories are moving to places like Vietnam. 

The reality is that I doubt a low volume manufacturer like Lionel would move back to the US, even with labor becoming less of a factor, but the claims about labor being too expensive in the US, regulations, etc to make it affordable is not entirely true, and those numbers were from a while ago, today with the cost of chinese labor and the tightness of their labor market, it might be 10% or less difference. To bean counters and stock analysts (and sadly, the people who complain about jobs going overseas, but then want the "walmart" price on everything, are part of this) any cost, especially labor, they can get off the books, the better. What potentially could work is someone like a newfangled version of Sanda Kan, where they do contract work for a number of manufacturers, something like that might have the economies of scale to allow it to work in the US, including using automation, and also would likely have better quality control then the mishmash of factories doing the work now, not to mention reduced shipping rates, the payouts to the Chinese government that are part of almost any business there, being bound by US courts with the contracts, but I doubt after the MTH/Lionel disaster and fears of stealing trade secrets, etc, and just the wariness of the various companies, it would happen. 

Customers are asking if this affects GGD / Sunset Models:

As for GGD / Sunset Models, we have no projects with AFFA Tech. Our factories are small, independently run assembly and finishing facilities located in Eastern China. To avoid these disruptions we compartmentalize Design, Tooling and Assembly, and control each separately, so if one goes rogue, we can shift production or tooling to another subcontractor.

Best of Luck...

Scott Mann

kanawha posted:

I received an email from an HO mail order dealer listing the companies affected and their response.....

.....Atlas and Bowser say this affects all products announced since January 2018, …..

 Ken

Thanks for posting all that, Ken.

The above quoted sentence bodes well for Atlas engines …. both O and HO. (If O scale is actually involved, anyway)

Jim

Just my two cents.

It is stated many times in this thread that Atlas Track is not affected.  All I know is I have had an order in with a large supplier of Atlas track since March(?).  I was originally told that it would not ship from this supplier until July.  For starters, what is with That?  So I call this supplier a day or so ago to find out what is the status and to order some additional pieces.  Guess what?  I was told that now my order won't ship until September.  So manufacturing in China as far as I am concerned is a crap shoot.  If I had not have started with Atlas track and now that I have acquired all the real estate in my Basement that I can afford (without a divorce proceeding), I would definitely change my mind and use a popular American made track manufacturer to supply my track "habit", I mean needs.

EBT Jim posted:
kanawha posted:

I received an email from an HO mail order dealer listing the companies affected and their response.....

.....Atlas and Bowser say this affects all products announced since January 2018, …..

 Ken

Thanks for posting all that, Ken.

The above quoted sentence bodes well for Atlas engines …. both O and HO. (If O scale is actually involved, anyway)

Jim

I hope this is true because I have a couple of SD40's preordered from August 2016. I have some Trinity hoppers and an extended vision caboose preordered from this year's announcements but I don't mind if these are delayed.

catnap posted:
EBT Jim posted:
kanawha posted:

I received an email from an HO mail order dealer listing the companies affected and their response.....

.....Atlas and Bowser say this affects all products announced since January 2018, …..

 Ken

Thanks for posting all that, Ken.

The above quoted sentence bodes well for Atlas engines …. both O and HO. (If O scale is actually involved, anyway)

Jim

I hope this is true because I have a couple of SD40's preordered from August 2016. I have some Trinity hoppers and an extended vision caboose preordered from this year's announcements but I don't mind if these are delayed.

Frankly, anything not yet built is affected.  Unless they're in a container on the dock or on the water, expect even more delays. 

Plus, getting things scheduled in with a new builder isn't going to happen with a snap of the fingers.  I'm pretty sure the remaining builders have full production schedules.

Rusty

Last edited by Rusty Traque
Lou N posted:
laming posted:

Confirmed list of companies known to be affected thus far:

Atlas (engines and rolling stock, track okay); Intermountain; Bowser; Fox Valley; Bluford Shops; Trainworx.

The list keeps growing.

Andre

TW does not.

Here we go as I light the forum fuse.......

Lionel does.

Lou N

Lou, maybe I am just dense--Lord knows, it's true!--but I don't get your post.  TW does not what?  Lionel does what?  I can't fit the syntax together. 

ajzend posted:

I may be wrong, but I believe that if you have tooling in China you cannot bring it out.  It's there to stay.  So, American manufacturers are held hostage by their choice to move there in the first place.

Alan

If the tooling was created in China, definitely. If it was shipped into China, it might possibly be retrieved. But there are very few examples of that in China, which has pretty much owned O gauge production for nearly two decades now, after Lionel announced its move in 2000.

palallin posted:

I don't buy the argument that production costs here would be 2 or 3 or 4 times the costs in China:  when the production moved FROM here TO China, prices rose; they didn't fall.

Don’t be naive. Prices didn’t fall after the shift to China because Lionel increased its profit margin by reducing production costs. But the cost of production in China is rising sharply and that is pushing the price up as well.

Last edited by Jim R.
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