Obviously both Lionel and Hallmark think this will work. I'm split on my thoughts.
True, Hallmark Ornaments have a huge following (guilty for everything Lionel, Star Wars, and the occasional others sometimes ). But there has never (to the best of my knowledge) been an offering (or even a series for a given year, lets say all Star Wars, all Lionel, all Disney, all Barbie offerings, etc) that approaches this price point.
I recall some sort of tree topper that had some effects that maybe sold for $100, 1/4 of this item. I don't think a ton of those sold, but I'm also not sure they were still around for the 1/2 off sales after Christmas. I suspect not a terribly huge amount were produced.
They seem to be covering the bases. Limited to only 2 per Gold Crown store so in case it is a flop, there are not tons of them to try to dump after Christmas. The announcement that it will be offered again in 2016 (presumably in identical form) also adds wiggle room here(no need to blow it out at all if you can try again next year at full price, unless the $400 sitting on the shelf is going to break the store).
While no store would obviously want to store too many of these, if a store here or there needs to sit on one (or at worst 2) for a year, it doesn't take up huge shelf space in the back room to do so.
My prediction is this will vary in success regionally. If you are in a major metropolitan area with many Hallmark Gold Crown Stores, I suspect you will be able to purchase one if you want. I really, really, doubt these will end up on the 1/2 off table after Christmas, at least certainly not this year.
-Dave