Question for members who run businesses regarding MTH and Lionel

Most of the O Gauge hobbyists in the US are NOT on this forum, only about 29,000 of the 100,000 to 150,000.

@ADCX Rob posted:

Most of the O Gauge hobbyists in the US are NOT on this forum, only about 29,000.

I am not sure where you got the numbers from, but let's say you are correct and most are not on this forum.  Is it likely that the ones who aren't on the forum feel "differently" about app controlled systems?  And would the main sales revenue for both companies be coming mostly from the non-members or the members?

John

Because making electronic devices and updating them is very expensive compared to the cost of managing software. I don't run our layout on a phone but on an i-pad using the DCS app - I will add another I-pad to access the new Base 3 app when it ships. if you haven't tried this, you are really missing out - it is much easier to read, faster to navigate, and just overall a better way to run the railroad. We run 20-30 trains at a time and I could never do that with a remote. You are welcome to visit our layout and try an i-pad.

Our customer database for O gauge exceeds 20,000 and I doubt I have sold something to the majority of the O Gauge guys out there, so 29,000 seems a little light to me.

@MrMuffin'sTrains posted:

Because making electronic devices and updating them is very expensive compared to the cost of managing software. I don't run our layout on a phone but on an i-pad using the DCS app - I will add another I-pad to access the new Base 3 app when it ships. if you haven't tried this, you are really missing out - it is much easier to read, faster to navigate, and just overall a better way to run the railroad. We run 20-30 trains at a time and I could never do that with a remote. You are welcome to visit our layout and try an i-pad.

Our customer database for O gauge exceeds 20,000 and I doubt I have sold something to the majority of the O Gauge guys out there, so 29,000 seems a little light to me.

I run my DCS trains on that app using a DCS Explorer I bought from a forum member on a Samsung Tablet.  It is fun, but is also the only option I have short of conventional.  I got back into the hobby as the handheld controllers were being phased out.

Would you say most of your customers are forum members?

Thanks,

John

@Craftech posted:

I run my DCS trains on that app using a DCS Explorer I bought from a forum member on a Samsung Tablet.  It is fun, but is also the only option I have short of conventional.  I got back into the hobby as the handheld controllers were being phased out.

Would you say most of your customers are forum members?

Thanks,

John

I would hope so. but no idea.... I will promote the Forum in my next newsletter - good idea.

Interesting thread, John. It’s been known for a long time that the majority of model railroaders don’t participate in any online forum, which includes O scale.

O scale continues to capture the interest of a few new and younger participants each year. But an increasing number of old O scalers pass away each year. So over time, O scale continues to slowly fade.

This is why Lionel is counting on the younger generations’ dependence on electronic devices along with high-end spenders to continue buying its offerings.

I have one foot in both worlds….long time user of my Legacy 990 and brand new to DCS thanks to wanting the Atlas Amtrak P42s. As a DCS newbie, my only option was the Explorer which runs on my iPad. I do prefer the handheld experience, but the app has its good points too. The main difference to me is that the app is more prone to user error, especially if your using a phone as opposed to an iPad. For example, accidental touching the speedometer at the 120 smph mark and seeing the train go flying off into a ravine. For that reason I put speed limits on all my Atlas engines ( easy enough to do). The one thing I do prefer from DCS is the scale mph….any chance that will be added to Lionel’s Base 3?

Lionel continues to make the cab-1L and Universal Remote for those who prefer a physical remote.  Not all functions, but relatively inexpensive, particularly the Universal Remote at about $50. Compared with DCC, where the initial cost of a system and hard wired remote is at least $200, this seems a good option, not costly and adds flexibility.  So younger and/or new hobbyists do have a choice of physical remote or using an app, at least for Lionel products made in the last few years and going forward.  Using the forthcoming Base 3, a cab-1L will control pretty much every command loco Lionel has made in the last three decades or so.

any chance [SPEED LIMIT] will be added to Lionel’s Base 3, stored with the engine?

looks like the answer is NO!

From  the Base  3 Manual, Engine Settings Menu

Speed Limit

Some engines are capable of speeds higher than you may wish they be operated on your layout. Use the speed limit slider to limit the maximum speed the engine can go. Adjust to your liking.

Note that this speed limit setting is not store(sic) in the engine, and only applies to the smart-device you’re setting the speed limit from.

I'm not buying that a remote is so impossible to make.  We read here regularly how the applications are not updated, don't work on all platforms, etc.  The plain truth of the matter is, the phone landscape is rapidly evolving, and unless the manufacturers keep up with the constant changes of phone software, the apps stop working.

Countless small companies somehow manage to create physical remotes for any number of devices, yet somehow Lionel can't seem to figure it out.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

I'm not buying that a remote is so impossible to make.  We read here regularly how the applications are not updated, don't work on all platforms, etc.  The plain truth of the matter is, the phone landscape is rapidly evolving, and unless the manufacturers keep up with the constant changes of phone software, the apps stop working.

Countless small companies somehow manage to create physical remotes for any number of devices, yet somehow Lionel can't seem to figure it out.

I see your point. They made them for years, and mine is more than10 years old, has NEVER been updated, and still works perfectly with every new engine that comes out. So what exactly is the difficulty?

The other point is, I've had both the MTH and Lionel LC app choke on various versions of Android, and it's years between updates.  The popular opinion was "use your old phone for the app".  Great, except the Lionel app doesn't run on my old Samsung Galaxy S8!   Now they're coming out with "new" apps that apparently will only run with their new hardware, the CAB3 won't talk to the older LCS WiFi box, and apparently the MTH "new" app will only work with their new WTIU.  Give them a couple of generations of phone software (happens at least once a year), and it's likely when you get a new phone, they won't work with that!

@ADCX Rob posted:

Most of the O Gauge hobbyists in the US are NOT on this forum, only about 29,000 of the 100,000 to 150,000.

When I sell trains at DuPage (maybe once a year) I bring up I am 'illinoiscentral' on both eBay and OGR and I get lots of 'what's that' or 'I heard of that'.  I was wearing an OGR pin somewhere on my shirt, nobody said anything. Wear a Illinois Railway Museum polo shirt and they will talk your ears off to the point you might miss a sale.

I have an old Cab-1 and Trainmaster, Cab-2 and 990 base and the Lionel Lionchief iPhone app. I'm not going to jump right into the Base 3 as soon as it's available. I'd like to let Lionel work out some bugs before I purchase a Base3. With the expedited obsolescence of available electronics components, it was inevitable that the Cab-2/990 system was going to sunset. I'm surprised it has held on as long as it has and even more surprised at how long it took Lionel and MTH to jump into Bluetooth control.

I can't justify purchasing a soon-to-be obsolete handheld device nearly 3x to 6x what I originally paid for. I'm just happy to be able to run some of my older TMCC locomotives and those electronics have stood the test of time.

I don't believe O scale/O gauge trains segment of the hobby will fade away, Menards is doing a great job creating an entry point for the hobby and have purchased some items that rival some of the offerings by the Orange and Blue and Purple and Yellow teams. I'm also a staunch Lionel person whose trains get run, not sit in boxes hoping to cash in years down the road.

@DaveP posted:

Yup -  had something similar when I bought my Jeep in 2015 - my iPhone worked great, the car UConnect system would read emails and texts, play music, etc - then between software updates and new phones, I'm lucky to be able to play music through my car stereo with my iPhone. And of course, there was no software/firmware upgrade for the cars system.

Well, some cars don't have updates.   My Kia gets an update every six months, I update the maps and the infotainment system.

"And where will those new enthusiasts come from? "

That is the question every hobby endeavor is constantly asking.  In one of my other interests, Amateur Radio, it was reported the average age of a ham today is 70, that is not good.  The source of all hobbies lay in how much free time you have and how you want to spend it, and how much extra money you have.  Passing an interest from father to son or daughter, dictates you are in a stable family relationship, another thing sorely lacking today.  Train hobbies have evolved from building just about everything from scratch, to kits, to now even complete painted and  landscaped buildings are for sale.  I think that is because what used to be the 'hobby' part, creating a world, now is more like that  video game where you build a world at the push of a button.

The first Androids came out around 2008 if I recall correctly...about the same time Neil Young and talented crew released Legacy and the much-improved handheld known as the cab II. It works and it's fun!

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

Well, some cars don't have updates.   My Kia gets an update every six months, I update the maps and the infotainment system.

My 2000 Toyota Tacoma Pickup Truck doesn't get any updates, it runs in Conventional Mode, starts every time, and keeps running with 250,000+ miles. Just like my starter set trains that run in Conventional Mode too. Just keep everything lubed up with basic maintenance and good to go! Nice and simple!😁

If Lionel were truly done with remotes, why not design and sell an add-on module to convert DCC commands to Legacy, available only with Base 3?  That way, one could use any DCC cab / remote you wanted to run Lionel stuff far into the future.  It still wouldn't fix incorrect or too quiet sounds like a true DCC system would, but I'd take it as an incremental step forward.

For now, I'm hedging.  I've got a full working #990 set and a separate #993 Cab 2.  If my Legacy base croaks, I'll buy a Base 3 but still use my Cab 2s.

It is true that people younger than 40 are used to using their phones for pretty much everything, and they won't resist the lack of a dedicated hardware cab as much as people > 40 will.  But to John's point above, the phone apps become fragile indeed as that technology advances, requiring Lionel and others to continually test and make they aren't broken by some 3rd party software update.  You don't have that problem with a closed hardware system like Cab 2.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

I'm not buying that a remote is so impossible to make.  We read here regularly how the applications are not updated, don't work on all platforms, etc.  The plain truth of the matter is, the phone landscape is rapidly evolving, and unless the manufacturers keep up with the constant changes of phone software, the apps stop working.

Countless small companies somehow manage to create physical remotes for any number of devices, yet somehow Lionel can't seem to figure it out.

I am reading all the responses, but I still don't get what the companies use to assess customer needs before manufacturing decisions are decided.

I get that the entire O Gauge world may not be on this forum, but where else would this much feedback on O Gauge customer desires come from for them to use?  Lionel and MTH aren't like a pharma monopoly where they can tell you what you can have and you have to buy it.  They must use some sort of customer data, no?

John

@Craftech posted:

They must use some sort of customer data, no?

John

If only. Sometimes I wonder where they come up with some of their brilliant ideas that make it to production. 🤔

@Craftech posted:

I am reading all the responses, but I still don't get what the companies use to assess customer needs before manufacturing decisions are decided.

John

I think it's less an attempt to assess the customers needs vs. the need to please shareholders; Developing and maintaining an app has to be much less expensive than designing and producing a dedicated throttle -- look how much trouble they have supporting past versions of hardware. This is not intended as a criticism...just one of the challenges with limited production runs and keeping up with ever-changing technology and supply chains. But I have no doubt that if the cost of developing a dedicated throttle and an app was the same, Lionel would go the throttle route because I believe that's what the majority of their customers would want.

Do we really know what the majority of O gaugers want wrt to remotes vs apps?  I have never seen results from a dedicated survey.   

I’m not a businessman nor do I play one on tv. But I’ve been around long enough to know that it doesn’t matter what we think. For the importers it’s all about the American dollar. They are looking towards the future and the upcoming younger generation and their preferences for gadgets and electronics. Not towards the 60+ year olds. We can hang on to our horse and buggies or adapt to the future. They have our money from the stuff we already bought, now they are after future incomes.

Personally, I embrace the new technology but it has to actually work. And I’m hanging on to my horse and buggy just in case. But it’s all good as long as I can run my trains.

@ADCX Rob posted:

Most of the O Gauge hobbyists in the US are NOT on this forum, only about 29,000 of the 100,000 to 150,000.

Let me put more perspective on this statement ...  We have a little less than 30,000 registered members on this forum however there are 3 to 4 times more folks that are not members of the forum that view pages every day.  We are able to track not only who visits the forum but whether or not they are members.  This means that we have on average 90,000 to 120,000 folks using the forum in one way or another either through their membership or as guests so it is not totally inaccurate to say that it is likely that most folks in this hobby either know about our forum or are visiting it even if they are not registered members.  This time of year is considered "slow" and yet we had 9.9 million page views in May compared to 6.7 million during May of last year.  Compare those figures to May of 2018 in which we had 5.4 million page views.  This forum is THE place to be guys thanks to you all!!!!

@Scott R posted:

Do we really know what the majority of O gaugers want wrt to remotes vs apps?  I have never seen results from a dedicated survey.   

Scott...as a member of the forum you could do a survey since you can create one by clicking on the post button and then on "survey".  I think it would be very useful and answer some of the speculations in the posts in this thread.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

Now they're coming out with "new" apps that apparently will only run with their new hardware, the CAB3 won't talk to the older LCS WiFi box, and apparently the MTH "new" app will only work with their new WTIU.

Woah. I wasn't tracking either of those. If that's true that's an epic fail on both companies' parts.

You can't make a proprietary system and then destroy backwards compatibility. That's shameful.

@rplst8 posted:

Woah. I wasn't tracking either of those. If that's true that's an epic fail on both companies' parts.

You can't make a proprietary system and then destroy backwards compatibility. That's shameful.

The iCab app which does work with the LCS WiFi is still available.

It was explained that once they got into development that it was clear making the new app work backwards was limiting. I don’t see this in any way a problem. I’d rather have an app with fuller functionality than be limited.  I doubt icab is going anywhere.  Dave already said the LCS iPad app will get an update after Cab3 is released.

As for MTH it really can’t comment because we have seen and heard very little about it.

Technology moves forward.

@Craftech posted:

I am reading all the responses, but I still don't get what the companies use to assess customer needs before manufacturing decisions are decided.

I get that the entire O Gauge world may not be on this forum, but where else would this much feedback on O Gauge customer desires come from for them to use?  Lionel and MTH aren't like a pharma monopoly where they can tell you what you can have and you have to buy it.  They must use some sort of customer data, no?

John

Re the pharma analogy, yes and no.  Lionel is unlike pharma because pharma is actually less of a monopoly - dozens of major players with lots of innovation and competition.  With the self-inflicted implosion of MTH, Lionel faces very little competition - MTH and Atlas are small players who largely sell the same old stuff in different paint schemes, MTH still hasn't brought any updates to DCS to market, and Menards is a niche player at the lower end.  Like pharma because the blue and orange box is almost like a drug to a lot of its customers - there's a deep-pocketed segment of the market that will spend thousands of dollars on everything they make, despite persistent quality issues with locomotives costing $1500 and up.

There are numerous threads on OGR (and other forums as well) where folks express a desire for a dedicated remote.  In addition, the outrageous prices for digital control systems on the secondary market should tell Lionel something.  Lots of opinions regarding why Lionel hasn't been more responsive to this clearly-articulated demand - search the forum if you want to read more.

@MartyE posted:

The iCab app which does work with the LCS WiFi is still available.

Well, I'm having considerably difficulty getting this to run on my Samsung Galaxy.

@Garfield Irwin posted:

I think it's less an attempt to assess the customers needs vs. the need to please shareholders; Developing and maintaining an app has to be much less expensive than designing and producing a dedicated throttle

Bingo. In addition, cheaper motors, cheaper drivetrains, made in Vietnam, are about less money for production and more for shareholders.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

Well, I'm having considerably difficulty getting this to run on my Samsung Galaxy.

We all know you aren't running the app so there's that.

The good news is that Dave has said the new Cab3 is available for Android now so there's also that.

As a 2 railer I am glad we have DCC. I think the next thing might be dead rail.

Manufacturers’ unwillingness to continue to make hardware for control systems suggest concerns about falling profits from these categories. I personally preferred handheld units. My phone gets enough use for everything else.

@Craftech posted:

As a retired teacher I don't have a business background so things that make sense to me business wise may not be sound.  That is why I am asking those of you who run businesses and have a business sense.  It has to do with the switch to app controlled control systems by both Lionel and MTH.

Some observations from being a forum member for a few years:

1.  There seem to be a lot of members who don't want app controlled systems and covet their older hand held controls.  Statements I have seen include, "I bought a few before they became unavailable so I am all set".

2.  Those older hand held controls go for insane prices no matter where you look.  People must really want them.

3.  There seems to be no shortage of posts asking how to repair a broken Legacy control system or MTH TIU, etc with few good options as answers.  Some about TMCC as well.

4.  Lionel and MTH have both chosen to focus on app controlled systems controlled by tablets and phones which have been in the works for a few years and not available.  Meanwhile I mostly see complaints about that being the only future alternative from these two companies none of which seem to be willing to make their code open source as with DCC.  But that is not the main question I have.

5.  My Question:  The O Gauge hobby is small compared to HO.  I would venture to say that most of the O Guage hobbyists in the US are on this forum.  We won't live forever so won't new O Guage enthusiasts have to replace us in equal or greater numbers for Lionel and MTH to be viable in the future?

And where will those new enthusiasts come from?  If the hobby is really expensive won't interest in it for newbies have to come from us existing enthusiasts to make the expense seem worthwhile for them?  That as opposed to advertising or starter sets?   If we are not enthusiastic about giving up handheld control systems and embracing app controls in sufficient numbers how will that generate enough sales of O Gauge products for Lionel and MTH to remain profitable enough to stay in business?  And if the answer is "it may not", why are they not listening?

John

John,

you are correct on many levels. Lionel likes to obsolete things very quickly, this is not do to cost of a remote or the hardware. They really have no one on staff who can really fix something it’s all plug in a new board and hope it works, they also keep no parts on hand period. Unlike in HO where the manufacturers want to keep everyone happy Lionel caters to only the newest and forgets everything else. At my local Lionel store that is also an authorized repair shop, they have shelves full of Lionel engines a few years old and boards no longer available. We are the only hobby that tolerates this, it’s a real shame.

@Craftech posted:

I am not sure where you got the numbers from,

Checked w/ ChatGPT this am:

Estimating the number of O gauge hobbyists in the United States can be challenging due to the niche nature of the hobby and the lack of comprehensive industry data. However, some insights can be drawn from various sources within the model railroading community.

1. Model Railroader Magazine: One of the leading publications in the model railroading industry, Model Railroader magazine, has a circulation that provides some insight into the hobby's popularity. While not all subscribers are O gauge enthusiasts, the magazine covers various scales, including O gauge, and can give a rough estimate of the active community.

2. National Model Railroad Association (NMRA): The NMRA is a key organization for model railroaders, offering memberships and hosting conventions. Membership numbers, while inclusive of all scales, can offer another indirect measure of interest. The NMRA has thousands of members nationwide.

3. Online Communities and Forums: Websites and forums dedicated to model railroading, such as OGR Forum (O Gauge Railroading) and others, have thousands of registered users who actively discuss O gauge topics. These online communities provide a snapshot of engaged hobbyists.

4. Sales Data from Manufacturers and Retailers: Companies that produce and sell O gauge trains, such as Lionel, MTH (Mike's Train House), and Atlas, can offer sales data that might indicate the number of enthusiasts. While specific sales figures are often proprietary, the health of these companies and their continued production lines suggest a substantial hobbyist base.

5. Train Shows and Conventions: Attendance at model train shows and conventions, such as Trainfest and the National Train Show, can provide additional context. These events often feature a significant presence of O gauge layouts and vendors, indicating robust interest.

Given these factors, while it is difficult to pinpoint an exact number, it is reasonable to estimate that there are tens of thousands of O gauge hobbyists in the United States. A conservative estimate might place the number between 50,000 and 100,000, considering the combined data from magazines, associations, online forums, and industry health. This estimate reflects a dedicated community that supports a thriving niche within the broader model railroading hobby.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

apparently the MTH "new" app will only work with their new WTIU.

John, I'm not sure where you gleaned this info from but I'm pretty sure it's not accurate.  MTH rolled out a huge batch of new WIU's last year and now they are obsolete this year because the new app doesn't work with them? Especailly when MTH stated back in April they are updating the App to include support for the WTIU. I haven't ever heard them say there will be a whole new app just for the WTIU.

@H1000 posted:

John, I'm not sure where you gleaned this info from but I'm pretty sure it's not accurate.  MTH rolled out a huge batch of new WIU's last year and now they are obsolete this year because the new app doesn't work with them? Especailly when MTH stated back in April they are updating the App to include support for the WTIU. I haven't ever heard them say there will be a whole new app just for the WTIU.

We'll just want and see.

@gunrunnerjohn posted:

We'll just want and see.

It doesn't even make logical sense to do this. How would one integrate a new WTIU into a layout with an existing WIU/TIU? If they only have one app that doesn't support the WIU/TIU, all of that WIU hardware is now abandonded even though it operates on the same principle or are they going to have two different apps that both need updates on two platforms... seems like a lot of extra work. History doesn't even support the idea, back when the DCS Explorer rolled out, they didn't introduce a new app but rather updated the existing app to support the new hardware.